Carson is nowhere near as strong a candidate electorally as Trump. He still flips Michigan due to his roots there, and flips ME-2 because he picks Paul LePage as his running mate, and Iowa flips because it had already been dramatically trending that way since 2014, but Carson is unable to rally the rest of the Trump coalition.
Hillary is forced to pick an African-American candidate as her running mate to counter Carson, ultimately choosing Cory Booker.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) 51%
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MI)/Governor Paul LePage (R-ME) 46%