2000: 65+ voters were D+4, 18-24s were tied. 2016, 65+ were R+8, 18-24s were D+21. What changed?

[Ferguson97]

So obviously these are different groups of people - by virtue of how age groups work and the elections taking place 16 years apart - so did the parties fundamentally change in those 16 years, or were the new generations fundamentally different? Why?

[Asenath Waite]

It was a mix of both I think. There were still a lot of GI Generation and even a few lost generation voters at that time that were lifelong new deal Democrats. In many areas they were some of the only Democrats left which explains the hard right swing of many counties over the next decade. Others did swing to the right and I do think a lot of the younger voters in 2000 became more left-leaning as they aged and became more educated and downwardly mobile post-2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very few voting age  Millianials in 2000

[TML]

This is mostly because of the political leanings of different generations. The Greatest Generation (people born 1901-1927) was a D-leaning cohort, while the Silent (1928-1945) & Boomer (1946-1964) generations were R-leaning cohorts, which would explain the rightward shift among the 65+ voting bloc. On the other hand, older Generation X (1965-1980) people are R-leaning, while younger ones along with most millennials (1981-1996) are D-leaning, which explains the leftward shift among the under 25 voting bloc.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Different birth cohorts + naturalized citizens becoming eligible to vote

[darklordoftech]

Nader took a lot of young voters away from Gore and Tipper Gore and Joe Lieberman scared young voters while Laura Bush and Dick Cheney seemed like they would leave the youth alone. As for 65+ voters, there were more voters alive who remembered Herbert Hoover and FDR than in subsequent elections.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tipper Gore was seen as hostile to video gamers.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It was a mix of both I think. There were still a lot of GI Generation and even a few lost generation voters at that time that were lifelong new deal Democrats. In many areas they were some of the only Democrats left which explains the hard right swing of many counties over the next decade. Others did swing to the right and I do think a lot of the younger voters in 2000 became more left-leaning as they aged and became more educated and downwardly mobile post-2008.

Democrats were the party of video game and music censorship at the time. Tipper Gore was a crusader for censorship in the music industry in the 1980s. The Republicans were libertarian on those issues.

[Del Tachi]

18-24s are much less White than they were 20-30 years ago

[Bootes Void]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

[lfromnj]

2000 was the last election where the Greatest Generation voted in significant numbers. Not surprisingly they were influenced by FDR's New Deal heavily.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

I'd think it would come from having to pay taxes more. I doubt people go from being pro-choice to being hardcore religious folks within a decade.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

Look how the 18-29 voters from 2008 voted in 2020(when they were 30-41). There was a massive shift to the right.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Older voters: New Deal Democrats dying off, alienated by social/cultural issues

Younger voters: Generally more culturally liberal, they don't have the nostalga for Reagan that those who are 50+ have and many grew up during the Iraq War/Great Recession periods which makes them less likely to support hawkish/fiscally conservative policies.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

I'd think it would come from having to pay taxes more. I doubt people go from being pro-choice to being hardcore religious folks within a decade.

I’m not sure why one’s stance on abortion would be considered more central to the ideological spectrum than taxes. What does their reasoning matter if they are voting for Donald Trump? Anyway, this sentence perfectly illustrates the fact that many of the people that consider themselves pro-choice don’t actually care enough to vote on it

[Nyvin]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

It's not that people get more conservative as they age, it's that large groups of young people 18-29 simply don't start participating in elections until their 30's, and it's mostly young people without college degrees that fall into that category.  

The trends are entirely explainable by the young people who sit out of elections in their 18-29 years being overwhelmingly Republican-leaning.

Edit - Also you have to adjust for 2008 being a 7.2% win and 2020 being a 4.5% win.

[TML]

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

It's not that people get more conservative as they age, it's that large groups of young people 18-29 simply don't start participating in elections until their 30's, and it's mostly young people without college degrees that fall into that category.  

The trends are entirely explainable by the young people who sit out of elections in their 18-29 years being overwhelmingly Republican-leaning.

Edit - Also you have to adjust for 2008 being a 7.2% win and 2020 being a 4.5% win.

There are also some Obama voters who decided to sit out subsequent elections because they felt he did not meet their expectations after he entered office. That would also decrease the share of people voting for his party and thereby increase the share of people voting for the opposing party.

[progressive85]

Young voters were fairly conservative in previous years.  Didn't they vote heavily for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984? 

It may be some social issues today and social trends that have caused younger generations to have a very different attitude towards certain things than their grandparents did.  I know with my grandparents, I would differ from them enormously on issues such as interracial marriage and such.

[TML]

Young voters were fairly conservative in previous years.  Didn't they vote heavily for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984? 

True, but in both cases youth support for Republicans was weaker than senior support for Republicans (per exit polls):

1972	D	R
18-29	46	52
60+	31	68

1984	D	R
18-29	40	59
60+	39	60

In fact, the only election cycles where exit polls showed stronger Republican support among the youngest voting bloc (under 30) compared to the oldest voting bloc (over 60) were 1988, 1992, and 2000 - this reflected just how D-leaning the Greatest Generation was compared to the subsequent three generations that followed.

It may be some social issues today and social trends that have caused younger generations to have a very different attitude towards certain things than their grandparents did.  I know with my grandparents, I would differ from them enormously on issues such as interracial marriage and such.

According to Pew Research, younger generations are more diverse compared to older generations, and these people thus have more opportunity to interact with people whose demographic backgrounds differ from their own.

[pbrower2a]

If you use the Strauss-Howe divides among the generations from GI's to Millennials....

GI (New Deal) born 1901-1924
Silent born 1925-1942
Boom born 1943-1960
Thirteenth or X, born 1961-1981
Millennial, 1981-? (the end line is still undefined)

GI's, who still largely clung to New Deal politics because the New Deal shaped their lives almost entirely to the good, may have been 76 or older on Election day, 2000... and a little less than half of the electorate among voters 65+. The arch-conservative Lost generation, by then centenarians, were gone.

Voters 18-24 in 2000 were born between 1976 and 1982, and almost all of them were from the Thirteenth, or X generation, the generation that still believed that its employers could be trusted to offer opportunity in return for working super-cheap under harsh management. Such voters were arch-conservative, having no use for the cultural or political avant-garde. Many people still working in malls and fast-food places still believed the ideology that he who owns the gold rightly makes the rules on everything else.

By 2016, voters over 65 were born as late as 1951, which means a very few ninety-something GI's all of the Silent, and  the older Boomers. The Silent and Boomers are not particularly liberal; indeed, generations usually get more conservative because poor people with little stake in a system that treats them badly tend to die young. But voters born between 1992 and 1998 were no longer X, and they no longer believed what their employers told them about politics.