How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Biden in his impeachment trial?
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  How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Biden in his impeachment trial?
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Author Topic: How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Biden in his impeachment trial?  (Read 808 times)
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« on: May 30, 2022, 03:52:57 PM »
« edited: May 30, 2022, 04:00:43 PM by Anxious Pessimist Doomer »

Democrats have, in the eyes of partisan hack Republicans that think Trump did nothing wrong, set a precedent where impeachment is used as a political tool to try to get rid of, or at least put bad press on, a president the opposing party doesn't like. With this in mind, it is highly likely that Joe Biden gets impeached in early 2023. Perhaps it will be related to Hunter's laptop or maybe it will be vague BS about inflation and domestic energy and selling out to the globalists.

How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Biden? Here are my guesses:

Guaranteed to Convict:
Barrasso
Blackburn
Braun
Budd
Cramer
Cruz
Graham
Hagerty
Hawley
Hyde-Smith
Johnson
Kennedy
Laxalt
Lee
Lummis
Marshall
Masters
Oz
Paul
Scott (FL)
Scott (SC)
Tchibaka
Tuberville
Vance
Walker
whoever replaces Blunt
whoever replaces Inhofe
whoever replaces Hassan


Could Go Either Way, but Probably Would Convict:
Boozman
Britt
Capito
Cornyn
Cotton
Crapo
Daines
Ernst
Fischer
Grassley
Hoeven
Lankford
McConnell
Moran
Risch
Rounds
Rubio
Sullivan
Thune
Tillis
Wicker
Young

Will Not Convict (unless there actually was something illegal):
Cassidy
Collins
Romney
Sasse
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THG
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2022, 04:28:21 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2022, 04:47:18 PM by THG »

Contrary to what Democrats seem to think, I don’t think that most House Republicans will push for an impeachment trial that hard. It’s not a priority for the GOP House- blocking the admin’s far left agenda is. And if he gets impeached, it will be over something truly egregious.

Don’t believe me?

https://thehill.com/news/house/3266811-mccarthy-faces-grumbles-from-right-over-biden-impeachment-remarks

https://nypost.com/2022/04/11/mccarthy-pledges-gop-wont-impeach-biden-for-political-purposes

I understand why some on the right are upset about McCarthy’s statements. I get it, the Dems broke all precedent when they tried to impeach Trump over a purely partisan basis and then without a hearing and a trial after he left office. I get it. I also get why McCarthy doesn’t want to do it (and McConnell is even less likely to support something like this).

My reasoning is that the GOP seems to have seen what happened with the Dems after Trump’s first impeachment (it backfired politically and would possibly have costed the Dems the House if not for COVID) and are in no hurry to repeat that. They also do not want to risk making Kamala Harris President, which is also perfectly understandable.

If Biden gets impeached- it will likely be over something genuinely egregious, as McCarthy and especially McConnell have no interest in giving the Dems/media something to rally around with a trial over a weak case or something that doesn’t entice the public much, it will 100% be on party lines.

However, do not be shocked to see Mayorkas impeached over his mishandling of the border crisis. 

That’s all I have to say.
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Badger
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2022, 04:57:08 PM »

Contrary to what Democrats seem to think, I don’t think that most House Republicans will push for an impeachment trial that hard. It’s not a priority for the GOP House- blocking the admin’s far left agenda is. And if he gets impeached, it will be over something truly egregious.

Don’t believe me?

https://thehill.com/news/house/3266811-mccarthy-faces-grumbles-from-right-over-biden-impeachment-remarks

https://nypost.com/2022/04/11/mccarthy-pledges-gop-wont-impeach-biden-for-political-purposes

I understand why some on the right are upset about McCarthy’s statements. I get it, the Dems broke all precedent when they tried to impeach Trump over a purely partisan basis and then without a hearing and a trial after he left office. I get it. I also get why McCarthy doesn’t want to do it (and McConnell is even less likely to support something like this).

My reasoning is that the GOP seems to have seen what happened with the Dems after Trump’s first impeachment (it backfired politically and would possibly have costed the Dems the House if not for COVID) and are in no hurry to repeat that. They also do not want to risk making Kamala Harris President, which is also perfectly understandable.

If Biden gets impeached- it will likely be over something genuinely egregious, as McCarthy and especially McConnell have no interest in giving the Dems/media something to rally around with a trial over a weak case or something that doesn’t entice the public much, it will 100% be on party lines.

However, do not be shocked to see Mayorkas impeached over his mishandling of the border crisis. 

That’s all I have to say.

Today I learned that Mitt Romney is apparently a liberal Democrat. Who knew?
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THG
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2022, 05:06:53 PM »

Contrary to what Democrats seem to think, I don’t think that most House Republicans will push for an impeachment trial that hard. It’s not a priority for the GOP House- blocking the admin’s far left agenda is. And if he gets impeached, it will be over something truly egregious.

Don’t believe me?

https://thehill.com/news/house/3266811-mccarthy-faces-grumbles-from-right-over-biden-impeachment-remarks

https://nypost.com/2022/04/11/mccarthy-pledges-gop-wont-impeach-biden-for-political-purposes

I understand why some on the right are upset about McCarthy’s statements. I get it, the Dems broke all precedent when they tried to impeach Trump over a purely partisan basis and then without a hearing and a trial after he left office. I get it. I also get why McCarthy doesn’t want to do it (and McConnell is even less likely to support something like this).

My reasoning is that the GOP seems to have seen what happened with the Dems after Trump’s first impeachment (it backfired politically and would possibly have costed the Dems the House if not for COVID) and are in no hurry to repeat that. They also do not want to risk making Kamala Harris President, which is also perfectly understandable.

If Biden gets impeached- it will likely be over something genuinely egregious, as McCarthy and especially McConnell have no interest in giving the Dems/media something to rally around with a trial over a weak case or something that doesn’t entice the public much, it will 100% be on party lines.

However, do not be shocked to see Mayorkas impeached over his mishandling of the border crisis. 

That’s all I have to say.

Today I learned that Mitt Romney is apparently a liberal Democrat. Who knew?

At no point did my post mention Mr. Romney, and at no point did I accuse any Republican of being a “Liberal Democrat”.

I genuinely don’t understand what you are attempting to get at.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2022, 05:20:37 PM »

First off, lol at the OP being a doomsday scenario. In reality, Hassan is safe, the Nomination of Masters is far from guaranteed, Murkowski almost certainly gets saved by Alaska's Top 4 RCV system. Dems going 0-4 in PA/GA/NV/AZ also seems exceedingly unlikely. I'm legit surprised you didn't throw in "whoever replaces Bennet" or something.

Moving on, I'm not even sure impeachment passes the House - some Republican Al Green writing up articles won't get the votes, leadership will need to devote time to it which they may not want to do, and secondly, even if it does, I doubt it clears 30 votes in the Senate, even if we assume the doomsday scenario. Under a (far more likely) 51-49 R Senate with Kelly (or a Non-Masters R) and Murkowski still there, may not even clear 25. Remember that McConnell didn't just support certification, he whipped in favor of it - while McCarthy was whipping against it. And most will follow McConnell's lead. Obviously if Dems keep the Senate (still very possible), Schumer probably just forces through a motion to dismiss.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2022, 07:00:06 PM »

I think it would be foolish in a lot of ways for Republicans to impeach Biden unless there were clear, sufficient reason. Democrats had that twice with Trump; at this time, there is nothing to impeach Biden for.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2022, 07:09:57 PM »

First off, lol at the OP being a doomsday scenario. In reality, Hassan is safe, the Nomination of Masters is far from guaranteed, Murkowski almost certainly gets saved by Alaska's Top 4 RCV system. Dems going 0-4 in PA/GA/NV/AZ also seems exceedingly unlikely. I'm legit surprised you didn't throw in "whoever replaces Bennet" or something.

Moving on, I'm not even sure impeachment passes the House - some Republican Al Green writing up articles won't get the votes, leadership will need to devote time to it which they may not want to do, and secondly, even if it does, I doubt it clears 30 votes in the Senate, even if we assume the doomsday scenario. Under a (far more likely) 51-49 R Senate with Kelly (or a Non-Masters R) and Murkowski still there, may not even clear 25. Remember that McConnell didn't just support certification, he whipped in favor of it - while McCarthy was whipping against it. And most will follow McConnell's lead. Obviously if Dems keep the Senate (still very possible), Schumer probably just forces through a motion to dismiss.
I still think Maggie Hassan will narrowly lose to Chuck Morse and feel that Blake Masters is strong enough to defeat Mark Kelly by around 1%. I am quite a bit more confident about Georgia however, as Herschel Walker is so mentally compromised that he makes Donald Trump look like Albert Einstein or Thomas Edison in terms of intellect.

I also feel that Themis Klarides, Tiffany Smiley, and Joe O'Dea will win their respective races as well very narrowly due to the inflation stuff. They would be sure votes to impeach Joe Biden and will also object to certain states during the electoral college vote count for the 2024 election.
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Hammy
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2022, 07:47:58 PM »

I think it would be foolish in a lot of ways for Republicans to impeach Biden unless there were clear, sufficient reason. Democrats had that twice with Trump; at this time, there is nothing to impeach Biden for.

While I doubt impeachment would go anywhere, don't underestimate the number of Republican politicians who think "Dems impeached Trump" is more than enough reason to impeach every future Dem.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2022, 09:43:40 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2022, 09:47:59 PM by Badger »

Contrary to what Democrats seem to think, I don’t think that most House Republicans will push for an impeachment trial that hard. It’s not a priority for the GOP House- blocking the admin’s far left agenda is. And if he gets impeached, it will be over something truly egregious.

Don’t believe me?

https://thehill.com/news/house/3266811-mccarthy-faces-grumbles-from-right-over-biden-impeachment-remarks

https://nypost.com/2022/04/11/mccarthy-pledges-gop-wont-impeach-biden-for-political-purposes

I understand why some on the right are upset about McCarthy’s statements. I get it, the Dems broke all precedent when they tried to impeach Trump over a purely partisan basis and then without a hearing and a trial after he left office. I get it. I also get why McCarthy doesn’t want to do it (and McConnell is even less likely to support something like this).

My reasoning is that the GOP seems to have seen what happened with the Dems after Trump’s first impeachment (it backfired politically and would possibly have costed the Dems the House if not for COVID) and are in no hurry to repeat that. They also do not want to risk making Kamala Harris President, which is also perfectly understandable.

If Biden gets impeached- it will likely be over something genuinely egregious, as McCarthy and especially McConnell have no interest in giving the Dems/media something to rally around with a trial over a weak case or something that doesn’t entice the public much, it will 100% be on party lines.

However, do not be shocked to see Mayorkas impeached over his mishandling of the border crisis.  

That’s all I have to say.

Today I learned that Mitt Romney is apparently a liberal Democrat. Who knew?

At no point did my post mention Mr. Romney, and at no point did I accuse any Republican of being a “Liberal Democrat”.

I genuinely don’t understand what you are attempting to get at.

I was getting at your asinine comment about how Democrats tried to impeach Trump on a "purely partisan  basis". One would think that after the Ukraine Invasion that the perfidy of Trumps actions here would be obvious to even the most Conservative Republican, but they never fail to find the bottom and go lower.

There was unmitigated partisanship in the impeachment proceedings to be sure, but it wasn't from Democrats.
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Badger
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2022, 09:44:46 PM »

I think it would be foolish in a lot of ways for Republicans to impeach Biden unless there were clear, sufficient reason. Democrats had that twice with Trump; at this time, there is nothing to impeach Biden for.

While I doubt impeachment would go anywhere, don't underestimate the number of Republican politicians who think "Dems impeached Trump" is more than enough reason to impeach every future Dem.

Republican politicians and voters alike, sadly.
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emailking
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2022, 09:47:08 PM »

Null question.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2022, 10:13:47 PM »

Start with a base of 45 and add to it however many seats flip to the GOP in November. The usuals will likely oppose (Collins, Murkowski and Romney) and I imagine there'll be no more than 2 other existing Senators who (seemingly) randomly will oppose it as well. All newcomers will support impeachment.
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2022, 10:54:00 PM »

They wouldn't use a joke charge that would get actual defections. There is a reason Pelosi waited until she had a majority in the House and could be confident Senate Democrats would almost unanimously (indeed they were unanimous) back it. Messaging votes-which unfortunately any impeachment is nowadays-are supposed to make the other side look bad.
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Amanda Huggenkiss
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« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2022, 01:09:49 AM »

Also, Trump was not impeached just because they wanted it, but also because the political climate allowed it and a majority of Americans supported it (both times). Of course, Republicans are not the majority party and function well enough by appealing to a big enough minority of voters, but still: Impeachment is a big risk, and most Republican senators are reasonable enough to have a sense of the political climate.
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VBM
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« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2022, 09:56:45 AM »

Contrary to what Democrats seem to think, I don’t think that most House Republicans will push for an impeachment trial that hard. It’s not a priority for the GOP House- blocking the admin’s far left agenda is. And if he gets impeached, it will be over something truly egregious.

Don’t believe me?

https://thehill.com/news/house/3266811-mccarthy-faces-grumbles-from-right-over-biden-impeachment-remarks

https://nypost.com/2022/04/11/mccarthy-pledges-gop-wont-impeach-biden-for-political-purposes

I understand why some on the right are upset about McCarthy’s statements. I get it, the Dems broke all precedent when they tried to impeach Trump over a purely partisan basis and then without a hearing and a trial after he left office. I get it. I also get why McCarthy doesn’t want to do it (and McConnell is even less likely to support something like this).

My reasoning is that the GOP seems to have seen what happened with the Dems after Trump’s first impeachment (it backfired politically and would possibly have costed the Dems the House if not for COVID) and are in no hurry to repeat that. They also do not want to risk making Kamala Harris President, which is also perfectly understandable.

If Biden gets impeached- it will likely be over something genuinely egregious, as McCarthy and especially McConnell have no interest in giving the Dems/media something to rally around with a trial over a weak case or something that doesn’t entice the public much, it will 100% be on party lines.

However, do not be shocked to see Mayorkas impeached over his mishandling of the border crisis. 

That’s all I have to say.
Why am I not surprised to see you now opposing Trump’s 2nd impeachment? How much longer until we can expect to hear you saying that Jan 6 was a peaceful protest?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2022, 10:52:58 AM »

All of them except maybe Romney.

As long as McConnell is their leader, it's pretty much guaranteed.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2022, 11:48:38 AM »

Collins, Romney, and Murkowski are guaranteed no's.

Depending on how stupid the trial is, more Republicans will join them.
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2022, 01:59:47 PM »

I think it would be foolish in a lot of ways for Republicans to impeach Biden unless there were clear, sufficient reason. Democrats had that twice with Trump; at this time, there is nothing to impeach Biden for.

Both Trump impeachments were bunk and people were looking for anything to impeach Trump for since 2016, before he even won.
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