At what point after Election Day did you realize Trump had lost?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More specific spin on the previous question.

For me I actually called it with the first results from Indiana and it was clear that enough of a shift in the Midwest has occurred for Biden to win back enough Rust Belt states. The actual result was a lot more complex and nuanced, but honestly someone calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania based on those results would've been fine.

Once Michigan was called, that was basically it when I became absolutely certain, there was no way Pennsylvania was going to hold at that rate, Arizona had already been called by some places and Georgia now looked also Lean Biden...Trump simply didn't have any paths to victory left.

[Hope For A New Era]

Morning of November 6 was when I became completely certain.

[Vosem]

Around midnight when it became clear that Biden was outright favored in GA. Biden was favored to win in AZ from the get-go, but it seemed for a while like Trump was winning in FL/GA/NC, and that it would all come down to an uncertain PA and WI. (I think Biden always looked vaguely favored in PA, but for a while the WI results seemed to fit a Trump victory, and pre-election polling showed PA as more favorable to Trump than WI, so I didn't really expect WI to be redder than PA). I had kind of extrapolated from Trump's fairly comfortable (or at least, quickly obvious) victories in FL and NC that GA was probably fine, but when it became clear that GA was probably voting Biden, my mental map looked like this:

Which has Biden at 276. Because during the course of the 2016 Election Night Trump tended to gradually improve in Midwestern states, at something like 11-11:30 PM on Election Night 2020 I thought Trump seemed vaguely favored, with Biden having obviously massively improved in the popular vote over Hillary but somehow contrived to flip only AZ and MI, which wouldn't quite have been enough.

[Stranger in a strange land]

When Wisconsin was called, I was over 95% sure because I knew it would be the toughest of the big 3 to crack.

[Redban]

Morning after, I checked the Wisconsin totals, and I knew he was finished. He had already lost Arizona by then, and PA & MI were looking unlikely: he wasn't going to win Michigan while losing Wisconsin.

On the night before, I thought he was heading for win when he took Florida so quickly (and handily). But the morning after killed all hope

[Sir Mohamed]

November 6, I guess? When MI was called for Biden and outstanding votes in PA looked like Biden has taking the state.

[TwinGeeks99]

I knew when the Milwaukee ballot dump happened at like 4:00 am EST on the 4th.

[Liberalrocks]

Morning after, I checked the Wisconsin totals, and I knew he was finished. He had already lost Arizona by then, and PA & MI were looking unlikely: he wasn't going to win Michigan while losing Wisconsin.

On the night before, I thought he was heading for win when he took Florida so quickly (and handily). But the morning after killed all hope

This is proably my answer too, I went to bed uneasy but felt better the next day based on how above was detailed.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I slept at 4 am that night, Biden already had an advantage on Wisconsin and most votes to be counted were on Milwaukee… I knew it was game over at that moment. No way he would lost Wisconsin and win Michigan and/or Pennsylvania.

[Pericles]

Since I had realised a 'blue shift' would happen, it was actually more surprising when I realised in the days after that Trump was a 0.6% margin from re-election rather than that Biden won despite losing his 'reach' states (except for Georgia and arguably Arizona).

[TML]

Since I had realised a 'blue shift' would happen, it was actually more surprising when I realised in the days after that Trump was a 0.6% margin from re-election rather than that Biden won despite losing his 'reach' states (except for Georgia and arguably Arizona).

In that sense, the 2020 election was similar to 1948, where the NPV margin was D+4.5, yet the tipping point state margin was D+0.4.

[Mexican Wolf]

The morning/early afternoon of November 4th, when Michigan was called for Biden, since at that point he was already basically at 270 with his wins in NE-02, WI, and MI and his leads in NV and AZ.

[Death of a Salesman]

The next morning, but I never thought he was favored that night.

[Mr. Smith]

Arizona...when AP called it, not Fox.

[JGibson]

The Wisconsin call to Biden.

[TDAS04]

When I saw Wisconsin get called for Biden, I became much happier.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It was on Election Day at about 11pm.  My poor mother was in hysterics and I was able to alleviate her anxiety when she called me a bit before midnight.   

[here2view]

I already thought he was done when I went to bed at around 1:40 AM EST on election night. Based on all the network calls (FOX, AP, CNN, etc.) the map was as follows:



When I woke up at 6 the next morning I believe Biden had pulled ahead in Wisconsin. I knew if he won that he was winning Michigan (never thought Trump would win Nevada.) That and the 238 he already had would have brought him to exactly 270. I thought Biden would probably win Pennsylvania and was 50/50 to win Georgia, but those were backup states in case something unexpected happened.

[TML]

When I woke up on the morning of November 4, I looked at the results at that point and realized that Biden was on track to winning MI/PA/WI based on the expected outstanding votes, so at that point I thought the final electoral total would be Biden 290 - Trump 248. Georgia didn't look promising at first on Election Night, and it wasn't until several days afterwards that I figured that Biden would win that state as well.

[HereswhatLiberals]

Arizona...when AP called it, not Fox.

Same here, and I'm surprised more posters haven't mentioned this. I knew Trump had lost the election as soon as Fox called Arizona. I simply could not see Trump winning any of the Big 3 Rust Belt states that got him to victory in 2016 after losing Arizona. Sure, it took a few days for Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada to be officially called, and I did think that Trump would narrowly hold Georgia by possibly a few thousands (maybe even a few hundred) votes, but as soon as Trump lost Arizona, I knew Biden would be the 46th President, whether it was called 11/5, 11/8 or any other date.

[Minnesota Mike]

When the absentee ballots from Milwaukee county were counted and Biden took the lead in Wisconsin, around 4:00 AM.

[LAB-LIB]

I remember the exact moment I realized it. It was around 11:30 on election night and my friend texts me "WE WON ARIZONA!" and I was confused and then he told me that Fox News of all networks, had called Arizona for Biden. That was the moment I knew as well.