MN SUSA Gov: Walz +5 - +12

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1524870738792046614



https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1524871807806889986

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1524873469296578561

[PSOL]

Minnesota is safe D, next!

[Minnesota Mike]

MN GOP state convention starts tomorrow.  While they could always change their mind all the major candidates for governor have said they will abide by the conventions endorsement. Governor endorsement is the last endorsement on the agenda so it will probably not start until Friday night/Saturday. 60% needed for endorsement, threshold to stay in the race rises as the rounds go by.

[ElectionsGuy]

Minnesota is safe D, next!

The incumbent is in the mid-40's.

[Politician]

Minnesota is safe D, next!

You are going to be in for a rude awakening this fall.

[Sir Mohamed]

Likely D, but closer to Lean than Safe.

Walz very likely is going to hold on. Will be more like 2014 margin-wise than 2018 though.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably the best/most realistic bet for a rather unexpected GOP upset on a good enough night (assuming NM doesn’t count as an 'upset'). I’ve never really understood why so many view this as a less likely flip than OR, let alone CT. Not that hard to see Walz losing in a wave, whereas there’s little to no chance of Republicans actually flipping the OR governorship (especially with their current field of candidates) or beating Lamont (which was never going to happen regardless of who the GOP put up against him).

[Senator Incitatus]

In other words, Walz is at 44-47 with varying levels of name recognition for Republicans. Lean/Likely D.

[neostassenite31]

Walz's favorability is only +3 (44%-41%), and the crosstabs from both SUSA-MN polls this year show a considerable enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans (even after the SCOTUS leak). Walz is also underwater with independents in both polls. Tossup/Tilt D seems most reasonable

[Xing]

Not safe for the Democrats, though I would say that Walz is narrowly favored, even given the environment. Not unlike Nevada, the issue for Republicans in Minnesota is that they can't win on rural margins alone and need to cut into the Democratic margins in the cities to pull off a win. Not to say that this can't happen, but it's difficult for them in the current alignment. (I know a barrage of but VA-GOV takes might happen as a response, but as always, "different races, different dynamics.")

[MT Treasurer]

Not safe for the Democrats, though I would say that Walz is narrowly favored, even given the environment. Not unlike Nevada, the issue for Republicans in Minnesota is that they can't win on rural margins alone and need to cut into the Democratic margins in the cities to pull off a win. Not to say that this can't happen, but it's difficult for them in the current alignment. (I know a barrage of but VA-GOV takes might happen as a response, but as always, "different races, different dynamics.")

Ignoring your NV obsession for a moment, literally everything you said here applies to CT as well, and yet you have that state going Republican. What’s the consistency here? If MN is a tough state for the GOP even in wave years for the reasons you mentioned, how exactly is CT - a Biden +20 state in which he’s far more popular than in MN - an "easier" state for them than MN?

Also funny how you just choose to ignore VA-GOV (where your logic would have applied as well) because it flies in the face of your narrative that the GOP can’t reduce the Democratic margins in "urban" or "suburban" counties.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not safe for the Democrats, though I would say that Walz is narrowly favored, even given the environment. Not unlike Nevada, the issue for Republicans in Minnesota is that they can't win on rural margins alone and need to cut into the Democratic margins in the cities to pull off a win. Not to say that this can't happen, but it's difficult for them in the current alignment. (I know a barrage of but VA-GOV takes might happen as a response, but as always, "different races, different dynamics.")

Ignoring your NV obsession for a moment, literally everything you said here applies to CT as well, and yet you have that state going Republican. What’s the consistency here? If MN is a tough state for the GOP even in wave years for the reasons you mentioned, how exactly is CT - a Biden +20 state in which he’s far more popular than in MN - an "easier" state for them than MN?

Also funny how you just choose to ignore VA-GOV (where your logic would have applied as well) because it flies in the face of your narrative that the GOP can’t reduce the Democratic margins in "urban" or "suburban" counties.

Hey cut that out. Trump has no chance. All Clinton needs to do is hold on to 90% of the Obama states and there’s no path for him to cut into those. We have all the Obama states as likely D except Virginia. That one is a pure tossup

[Suburbia]

Likely D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not safe for the Democrats, though I would say that Walz is narrowly favored, even given the environment. Not unlike Nevada, the issue for Republicans in Minnesota is that they can't win on rural margins alone and need to cut into the Democratic margins in the cities to pull off a win. Not to say that this can't happen, but it's difficult for them in the current alignment. (I know a barrage of but VA-GOV takes might happen as a response, but as always, "different races, different dynamics.")

The difference is in VA-GOV there was a very compelling wedge issue of school closures that McAuliffe really had no response to despite being hammered on it. Jensen and the rest of the Republicans' main attack on Walz seems to be to keep raving about lockdowns and mask mandates even though there is literally none of those in Minnesota at the moment and Walz has specifically said he will not impose any more Covid restrictions again.

[Chips]

Lean D. Wouldn't be wise to sleep on this race.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Minnesota Governor by Survey USA on 2022-05-10

Summary: D: 44%, R: 39%, I: 4%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details