NE-2: Change Research/Action Nebraska (Vargas internal) Vargas +3

[NewYorkExpress]

https://314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NE-2-314-Action-Toplines-May-6-10-2022.pdf

Tony Vargas (D) 42%
Don Bacon (R) 39%
Not Sure 16%
Would Not Vote 3%

[Gracile]

I don't buy this for 2022, but I think Bacon is a goner the next time there is a heavily Democratic national environment.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't buy this for 2022, but I think Bacon is a goner the next time there is a heavily Democratic national environment.

I don't know. We're bound to get at least one result that defies the GOP wave and leads to a D pickup. It could be here. Could also be NY-11.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great News

[Politician]

Vargas at 42% in his own internal? Not good for him.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

this is an internal polf

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

“Would Not Vote” should not be included in the sample.

[Hollywood]

Change Research has a D+3 National polling bias, and a D+5.6 Bias in NE-2 Congressional Race. Actually, all the D PAC polls under-estimated the Republican in a district that has been trending towards the right over the last 4 elections.  This particular poll over-estimates women by +4, and swings the demographics by 8 points.  Additionally, Change over-estimates Bachelor and Graduate Degree Voters by 10%, and this presents an additional swing of 20% in favor of a group more favorable to the Democrats.  Yet, Vargas can only manage a 42-39% lead in a poll where Republicans outnumber Democrats 47-43%, and abortion is tied with the economy as the number 1 issue for voters.   This poll was rigged for the Democrats, and Vargas still looks weak. How is it that a least 8% of Republicans are not sure?  https://314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NE-2-314-Action-Toplines-May-6-10-2022.pdf

In NE-2, Bacon is leading 52-41% after plugging in the correct demographics per ballotpedia, This makes sense give that Bacon won this race by 4.6 points in 2020 despite Trump losing that district by 6 points, and that the national polling has shifted 7 points away from Ds and 3 points in favor of Rs.  Democrats can't even win this race even if the Morning Consult/YouGov GCB numbers are correct.      https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska%27s_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2022

[Lambsbread]

D Internal so grain of salt, but this may be an interesting one to watch:

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1526577509109743616?s=20&t=Ps5W6mC...

https://314action.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NE-2-314-Action-Toplines-May-6-10-2022.pdf

564 LV, conducted May 6-10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great poll 😃

[ElectionsGuy]

Complete and total garbage, like most of the polls this year will probably be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Final poll is on EDay it's not a D or R year until we vote VBM is not Same day voting what happened last time we won tight election on Provisional ballots

If this was same day voting yeah Rs would have an advantage but it's VBM that why Rs are using Voting Suppression in red states they are worried about VBM

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Bacon managed to win in 2020, how is it possible for him to lose this year in a red wave year?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Bacon managed to win in 2020, how is it possible for him to lose this year in a red wave year?

If Lee Terry managed to win in 2012, how is it possible for him to lose this year in a red wave year- People in 2014
FTR, I don't think Bacon will lose but strange things can happen

[Devils30]

Bacon is unlikely to lose...only way it happens is if Roe becomes super salient in the suburbs (in this case, R gains are limited and they have a disappointing night even if take the House).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bacon is gonna lose according to this poll

[wesmoorenerd]

This is going to be a close race. Like CA-22 and NY-22, Dems have finally decided to wise up and try a different and likely far better candidate in this district, and the end result may be a nasty surprise for the GOP. Bacon is still favored but this could very easily surprise everyone at the end of the day.