Is Ron DeSantis a better for for NH or NV, vs. Trump? Which state could DeSantis flip that DJT didnt
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  Is Ron DeSantis a better for for NH or NV, vs. Trump? Which state could DeSantis flip that DJT didnt
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Author Topic: Is Ron DeSantis a better for for NH or NV, vs. Trump? Which state could DeSantis flip that DJT didnt  (Read 461 times)
HereswhatLiberals
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« on: May 11, 2022, 06:20:29 PM »
« edited: May 11, 2022, 06:29:59 PM by HereswhatLiberals »

It goes without saying that this is subjective speculation, especially since it's hard to identify where, why, and how a certain GOP candidate will do when Republicans all agree on the same policy positions more or less.

In any case, Trump did not win NH or NV in either 2016 or 2020, but he came just 10,000 votes shy in NH in 2016 (but lost ground in 2020 by around 70,000 votes). Meanwhile, in NV, Trump got a 60,000 raw vote loss in 2016, while in 2020, Trump only lost by 34,000 votes, i.e. Trump brought in around 26,000 "new" (newly registered or Hillary2016 voters) voters in NV, but he will likely never exceed his 2016 electoral performance.

However, the last 2020 national election cycles show me that NH, and NV even more so, are ripe for a Republican grab. I don't think is "fool's gold" either. Republicans were pestering Mitt Romney in 2012 for campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (which had not voted Republican in ~30 years) for chasing the "fool's gold" Rust Belt states, but Trump showed that by energizing the base, the next election cycle was not just ripe for GOP pickings, but it was a Buy 2 Get 1 Free deal when Michigan joined Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

FOR DESANTIS:
On the one hand, I feel DeSantis's perception as a low-tax, "reasonable," business-friendly Republican might fit in the Libertarianish New Hampshire, where libertarian-leaning and anti-vax Republican voters are energized might bode well for DeSantis. NH also has a Republican Governor and a Republican-controlled legislature.

Nevada also has a reputation as a libertarian-friendly state, it was closer in 2020 than it was in 2016 (in raw votes), and has an economy that directly benefits from low taxes and the freedom to operate gambling and sex-work establishments grows the economy of Nevada.

Also, I've heard the [in my opinion, nonsensical] commentary on TalkElections where people believe that because DeSantis is Italian-American and whose name and complexion could be perceived as Hispanic, that DeSantis might fare better in states with high Hispanic populations...including Arizona, Nevada, and................even............New Mexico (ROFLMAO)!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2022, 03:45:15 PM »

No Republican is winning NH before NV - this meme is silly lol
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HereswhatLiberals
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2022, 09:25:22 PM »

No Republican is winning NH before NV - this meme is silly lol

Thank you for your input. I may not have expressed this in the original post, but I agree completely. NV voted for Obama twice, and has been inching closer and closer to flipping since 2016; Trump lost Nevada by 34,000 votes and it was one of the last states called (along with Georgia & Pennsylvania), and lost it by 60,000 in 2020. With DeSatis maxing out Nevada;s rural voting bloc, and conservative ideas may cause Washoe County to flip with Reno and Carson City being Republican-leaning urban cities, meanwhile Las Vegas Democrats are losing ground. I have a hot take: the GOP could win NV in 2024 while still losing Arizona, Georgia, and all 3 Rust Belt States.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2022, 08:58:06 AM »

There has been nothing "libertarian" about DeSantis outside of taxes.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2022, 05:01:30 PM »
« Edited: May 14, 2022, 01:37:43 PM by Xing »

The question isnít whether or not God DeSantis could flip Nevada, but whether or not he could crack 70% (in Clark county, that is.)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2022, 10:42:35 PM »

Honestly, considering NV has a lot in common with his home state of Florida in terms of demographics and industry, I'd say he'd def be a better fit for NV than Trump in a normal year and he actually runs a smart campaign.

Both are pretty toxic Rs for NH but generally it seems like most national level Republicans are now.

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2022, 05:51:37 AM »

Honestly, considering NV has a lot in common with his home state of Florida in terms of demographics and industry, I'd say he'd def be a better fit for NV than Trump in a normal year and he actually runs a smart campaign.

Both are pretty toxic Rs for NH but generally it seems like most national level Republicans are now.



Jacky Rosen is on the ballot in 24 and you have NV going R and CCM and SISOLAK are ahead your map is Wrong, NV is never a tilt R state
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The Pieman
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2022, 08:17:01 AM »

DeSantis would be a perfect fit for NV, but I actually think Trump is a better fit for NH.
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Arizona has a good GOP delegation.
Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2022, 03:24:57 AM »

Both have a pretty equal chance of winning Nevada.  Both are actually a pretty good fit for the state and it should start out as a pure toss-up.  (now Arizona OTOH.... clear DeSantis edge)

NH will be much tougher, despite the fact it was incredibly close in 2016 it's a very secular, college ed. state.  It could fall but it would have to be a very favorable environment where the PV is within a point.  DeSantis probably has a slight edge as he's newer and does a bit better in educated suburburbrbrbs.
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HereswhatLiberals
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2022, 07:01:49 PM »

Both have a pretty equal chance of winning Nevada.  Both are actually a pretty good fit for the state and it should start out as a pure toss-up.  (now Arizona OTOH.... clear DeSantis edge)

NH will be much tougher, despite the fact it was incredibly close in 2016 it's a very secular, college ed. state.  It could fall but it would have to be a very favorable environment where the PV is within a point.  DeSantis probably has a slight edge as he's newer and does a bit better in educated suburburbrbrbs.

I agree. If Dean Heller wins the Governorship this November, that will be a good sign for what is in store for Rs in 2024. Considering no Republican has won NH in 22 years (even in 2000, Bush didn't win a majority in NH, so in that sense Trump2016 already outperformed Bush), I don't think it is likely that NH will flip, at least not before NV and MN, but I'm wondering if there is any national Republican WITH A CHANCE OF WINNING THE NOMINATION that could flip NH, even at the expense of other states. I wonder if Tucker Carlson, could appeal to educated white libertarian-leaning independents in NH to flip, while also maintaining traditional Republican states. As a nonsense example, if Mitt Romney or Larry Hogan won the GOP nomination (NOT HAPPENING) I could see a scenario where they might flip NH by going all-in on a "moderate Republican" platform while so turning off the base (that somehow nominated him in the primaries) in R strongholds that he loses Kansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc.
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