Emerson - NC Senate - Budd +7

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1524446933691080704?t=ZTvYLuW5rPhvgjuA3eQ...

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1524446933691080704?t=ZTvYLuW5rPhvgjuA3eQ...

Why hasn’t that D wave emerged yet

[Xing]

Likely R, bordering on Safe. Pretty hopeless for Democrats, even more so than WI.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah unfortunately this one is over. Cheri Beasley would've made an excellent Senator.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

NC Dems are going to be the next FL Dems, I can feel it.

[MT Treasurer]

Why hasn’t that D wave emerged yet

Because we need to "give it a few weeks or months" until the electoral fallout from the Roe v. Wade leak is felt.

[President Johnson]

Likely Republican.

Too unfortunate, Beasley would be a good senator. The senate needs more black women as well.

[Hollywood]

Why hasn’t that D wave emerged yet

Because we need to "give it a few weeks or months" until the electoral fallout from the Roe v. Wade leak is felt.

I think most of the fallout from the leak was reflected in last weeks polling data that demonstrated a reactionary bump in favor of the Democrats and Biden.  However, the trend seems to have reversed this week based on the newest data, because the economy is clearly becoming the most pressing issue.  The Economy weighs heaviest on 50% of voters nationally that were also allowed to pick abortion in questionnaires, and I would assume the number is worse for Democrats in a NC electorate.

Additionally, this May Poll by Emerson is showing a similar number to their April one, and the questions were asked a week after the leak to give that story time to settle.  This pollster has Budd and the D a few decimal points above 48% and 41%, but provides Democrats a +1 bias according to 538. The bias is bigger among establishment candidates of both Republican and Democrat Parties.  If not for the bias for an R Mass and New Mexico congressional candidate in 2018, the D bias would have been much greater.  Essentially, Democrats have lost some more support from their base after the leak, and the Republicans are over 50%.  That is a pretty bad sign.  

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Why hasn’t that D wave emerged yet

Because we need to "give it a few weeks or months" until the electoral fallout from the Roe v. Wade leak is felt.

I think most of the fallout from the leak was reflected in last weeks polling data that demonstrated a reactionary bump in favor of the Democrats and Biden.  However, the trend seems to have reversed this week based on the newest data, because the economy is clearly becoming the most pressing issue.  The Economy weighs heaviest on 50% of voters nationally that were also allowed to pick abortion in questionnaires, and I would assume the number is worse for Democrats in a NC electorate.

Additionally, this May Poll by Emerson is showing a similar number to their April one, and the questions were asked a week after the leak to give that story time to settle.  This pollster has Budd and the D a few decimal points above 48% and 41%, but provides Democrats a +1 bias according to 538. The bias is bigger among establishment candidates of both Republican and Democrat Parties.  If not for the bias for an R Mass and New Mexico congressional candidate in 2018, the D bias would have been much greater.  Essentially, Democrats have lost some more support from their base after the leak, and the Republicans are over 50%.  That is a pretty bad sign. 

The leak energized the GOP base more and demoralized the Dem base. Dems will move on to the next "Everything will end!!!" issue pretty soon as it becomes realized that they can still abort their babies in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Colorado, Washington, etc, etc

[Devils30]

Budd isn't as bad as the other GOP candidates for Senate....would wait to see Roe fallout but bc NC is a Trump state this one starts at lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah unfortunately this one is over. Cheri Beasley would've made an excellent Senator.

Lol this is not over, it's May

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R, bordering on Safe. Pretty hopeless for Democrats, even more so than WI.

Why should we listen to you you have GA likely R and Warnock is leading 50/45 and Mark Kelly is leading 50/48 and CCM is leading 42/34 what if D's win and your R nut map will be wrong .

Mark Kelly and CCM and Hassan aren't losing in this post Roe Environment

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Budd isn't as bad as the other GOP candidates for Senate....would wait to see Roe fallout but bc NC is a Trump state this one starts at lean R.

If you think roe is going to have any effect on the midterms.. you're going to be sorely disappointed.

[Person Man]

This is roughly in line to what would happen today with 2004 national numbers. That is, when the Republicans win about 50.7% of the vote. This would probably produce a 200-202/233-235 R House and a 47/53 R senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Budd isn't as bad as the other GOP candidates for Senate....would wait to see Roe fallout but bc NC is a Trump state this one starts at lean R.

If you think roe is going to have any effect on the midterms.. you're going to be sorely disappointed.

The D's aren't just gonna run on Roe the Rs voted against Voting Rights and tax cuts for the Rich 20 PERCENT Corporate taxes and didn't want to pass 27% Corporate TAXES

The Rs aren't D's

[Xing]

Wow, the left-leaning posters in this thread sure are overestimating Democratic chances. Oh wait, most are pretty realistic, but it sure is fun to ignore actual people and instead engage with cardboard cutouts of "liberals living in a bubble." Oh, the irony.

[GALeftist]

Likely R race is Likely R. This margin wouldn't really surprise me.

NC Dems are going to be the next FL Dems, I can feel it.

Florida: Republican elected governor in Republican midterm
North Carolina: Democrat elected governor twice in presidential years despite other party winning presidentially

No comparison

[Senator Incitatus]

Likely Republican.

Too unfortunate, Beasley would be a good senator. The senate needs more black women as well.

Great news for you out of Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember we're all in the process of voting O just voted in my ELECTION the Election is in Nov nothing is Final until all the votes are casted

[Schiff for Senate]

Hate to say it but at this point even Budd+7 wouldn't shock me. This race is Likely R at this point and in practice there's a very low chance Beasley pulls off an upset. Time for the DSCC to write this one off and focus on more competitive races like PA, WI, AZ, GA and NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, the left-leaning posters in this thread sure are overestimating Democratic chances. Oh wait, most are pretty realistic, but it sure is fun to ignore actual people and instead engage with cardboard cutouts of "liberals living in a bubble." Oh, the irony.

Lol it's not over until the votes are casted but your R nut map won't happen that's for sure .

There is no way Rs are gonna have 54Senatira according to your R nut maps

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Wow, the left-leaning posters in this thread sure are overestimating Democratic chances. Oh wait, most are pretty realistic, but it sure is fun to ignore actual people and instead engage with cardboard cutouts of "liberals living in a bubble." Oh, the irony.

You are right on the majority of left leaning posters response to this thread are realistic but the majority of left leaning posts on this thread (looking at you OC) are not

[Hollywood]

Why hasn’t that D wave emerged yet

Because we need to "give it a few weeks or months" until the electoral fallout from the Roe v. Wade leak is felt.

I think most of the fallout from the leak was reflected in last weeks polling data that demonstrated a reactionary bump in favor of the Democrats and Biden.  However, the trend seems to have reversed this week based on the newest data, because the economy is clearly becoming the most pressing issue.  The Economy weighs heaviest on 50% of voters nationally that were also allowed to pick abortion in questionnaires, and I would assume the number is worse for Democrats in a NC electorate.

Additionally, this May Poll by Emerson is showing a similar number to their April one, and the questions were asked a week after the leak to give that story time to settle.  This pollster has Budd and the D a few decimal points above 48% and 41%, but provides Democrats a +1 bias according to 538. The bias is bigger among establishment candidates of both Republican and Democrat Parties.  If not for the bias for an R Mass and New Mexico congressional candidate in 2018, the D bias would have been much greater.  Essentially, Democrats have lost some more support from their base after the leak, and the Republicans are over 50%.  That is a pretty bad sign. 

The leak energized the GOP base more and demoralized the Dem base. Dems will move on to the next "Everything will end!!!" issue pretty soon as it becomes realized that they can still abort their babies in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Colorado, Washington, etc, etc

You know I'm actually finding that same sentiment with voters in my suburban neighborhood.  In 2016, many swing-state voters put Trump over the top on the issue of nominating a conservative Supreme Court Justice to the bench.  It turned out that abortion energized the Republicans more than it did for the Democrats, and the Clinton campaign didn't get anywhere with that issue.  The Republican opposition to Merick Garland's nomination turned out to be a smart calculation on their part, but I guess we'll see how smart it was when the Supreme Court releases their decision in June.  I think you make a good point about Democrats still keeping broad abortion rights statutes on their books.     

[Hollywood]

Wow, the left-leaning posters in this thread sure are overestimating Democratic chances. Oh wait, most are pretty realistic, but it sure is fun to ignore actual people and instead engage with cardboard cutouts of "liberals living in a bubble." Oh, the irony.

You are right on the majority of left leaning posters response to this thread are realistic but the majority of left leaning posts on this thread (looking at you OC) are not

Ditto.  I often compliment the many veteran Ds and Rs on the election sub-forums that have been posting great information for over a decade.  I've learned a lot of from D posters that have concisely analyzed polls with expertise on how the state leans (L or R) and the important issues and factors (Momentum) that the polls miss.  This sub-forum has always provided more objective content from posters than the news sub-forum. 

Yet, we now have three D pollsters that get angry at other lefties for posting election news that doesn't favor their party.  I constantly see comments like, "You're not a 'real' Democrat", because the D poster expresses a negative opinion of Democrat chances in 2022 due to the awful economic conditions.  It's just crazy. 

[Devils30]

Budd isn't as bad as the other GOP candidates for Senate....would wait to see Roe fallout but bc NC is a Trump state this one starts at lean R.

If you think roe is going to have any effect on the midterms.. you're going to be sorely disappointed.

Definitely less in NC than NV AZ NH PA. Might help Dems for the NC sup. court