The Future of Atlasia

[OBD]

Part I: The Continuation of the Labor Era

Regardless of the December results, the future of Atlasia takes the following path - though for the sake of this exercise, the following results occurred:

- Labor retains a 5-4 majority in the House, with Jessica, Deadprez, Cao, and Jimmy7812 representing the opposition.
- Labor retains a 4-2 majority in the Senate. Blair defeats Jimmy by 4 votes after a late surge.

Atlasia continues its activity lull into the new year. In February, with President MB retiring, VP TedBessell takes up the reins and is nominated by the Labor Party in a cakewalk. He selects Senator tack50 of Lincoln as his running mate. Meanwhile, for the fourth straight cycle, the Federalists refrain from nominating their own candidate, instead endorsing DAer Rep. Jimmy in his bid for the White House. Jimmy taps Former House Speaker Cao (unseated by FalterinArc in January) as his running mate. While the opposition target is strong, the election ultimately is a repeat of October, with TedBessell emerging victorious by a somewhat reduced 11-point margin. In the aftermath of this election, which saw the return of Labor majorities, many pundits on both sides began to question to longevity of the game at-large, with Labor domination showing no signs of letting up. Congress retains the same composition, with Councillor KaiserDave succeeding Tack to Lincoln's Senate seat.

March would be highlighted by another marquee Lincoln gubernatorial election. With the DA discouraged from defeat after defeat and not fielding a candidate, Federalist Joseph Cao would take up the opposition mantle, challenging Councillor S019 for the governorship. In a highly competitive turnout battle, S019 ekes out a 1-vote win despite multiple defections thanks to the Labor zombie vote. If history changed and the DA actually contested this seat, though, things might be very different today. In March, meanwhile, Peacenik KoopaDaQuick won the Southern gubernatorial election in a major win for Peace.

However, by April the DA had effectively ran its course - their Presidential candidate Jimmy had once again gone dormant, and the rest of the leadership was also somewhat inactive. Resultantly, without leadership, the DA actually began to merge with the Liberals, the other opposition centrist party. Unwilling to join the Federalists or the Laborites, Poirot's Liberals were the best option. In the April midterms, they successfully elected Poirot to a House seat for the third time, though Labor once again maintained their 5-seat firewall. As 2021 went on, DA zombies would slowly assimilate into the Liberals, establishing them as the clear third party in Atlasia.

June's Presidential Election marked, if I recall correctly, the second anniversary of constant Labor rule. With President Ted Bessell fairly popular and opposition organization at a nadir, June 2020's Presidential election was fairly uncontested, with Bessell defeating an LT/Ishan ticket 59-40 and the Congressional composition remaining entirely the same. However, this would be the last election of Labor's Domination Era.

White House: Ted Bessell / Tack50

Senators: (June 2020/April 2020)
South: LouisvilleThunder / North Carolina Yankee Governor: KoopaDaQuick
Fremont: Devout Centrist / Scott First Minister: Harry S. Truman
Lincoln: KaiserDave / Blair Governor: S019

Part II: Decline and Realignment

As summer 2021 began, many of Labor's big faces - MB, Truman, and even President Ted - had began to take a backseat in party affairs, with Labor's "New Generation" slowly taking the reins. However, this generation's activity levels were far less stable, especially with multiple members celebrating the end of the lockdown by taking long vacations and/or leaves of absence. As a result, Labor's GOTV operation was basically crippled, and this became apparent beginning with the Lincoln Gubernatorial Election in July. Governor S019 had taken somewhat of a backseat role in the office, and Federalist Rep. Joseph Cao (who had taken a brief leave from the house from April-June) challenged him again. But this time, without a strong GOTV apparatus, zombie turnout cratered and Cao won by a surprisingly robust 55-44 margin, ending the Labor era in Lincoln and stunning the political world. Seeking to build on this in August, opposition members like Ninja and WB returned under the banner of the Liberals, and united with the Federalists, retook the House at last. And, with Blair's retirement, the old DA contingent finally got their Senate seat (albeit on a Liberal ticket) with Ninja defeating Wulfric 53-46. Labor domination had come crumbling down in one election with a bang - though Governor KoopaDaQuick held on in the South thanks to a strong personal brand, defeating Federalist Spark 58-41, and Scott barely held off the return of Laki by two votes.

With some Laborites returning in September, though, there was still hope for the retention of the White House - the reinvigorated Liberals and Federalists still had to decide on a ticket amenable to both parties, and despite an atrocious August performance Labor still had a registration advantage. As a result, they decided to field as strong a ticket as possible - Tack50/Truman, two of their most senior officials. On the other side, the Liberal/Federalist ticket became Cao/Poirot. In the closest election in...well...a long time, Labor managed to exact one last victory, with Tack50 ascending to the Presidency by a 52-47 vote. However, Labor once against lost the House, and barely held their Senate seats.

A more nonpartisan crisis also began brewing in Fremont - with Truman now back in Nyman, the region had no obvious leader. The current Speaker of Parliament - and thus Truman's immediate successor - was neophyte Laborite politician Newsom, who after an initial period of activity in June had effectively become a zombie MP. Resultantly, Denver effectively went radio silent - in November, the election wasn't opened on time, and when it was only two Parli candidates ran - Western Democrat and Battista Minola. Meanwhile in the South, a retiring Koopa was replaced by new Federalist Wallace2908 as Governor, while Governor Cao won an easy re-election with the support of Labor Senator KaiserDave.

Thanks to the Fremont Debacle and congressional deadlock, the December election was a bloodbath for Labor - they lost their Fremont Senate Seat to AustralianSwingVoter of all people, while Ninja and NCY were re-elected easily, and lost an additional House seat. The Senate now had 2 Laborites, 2 Federalists, 1 Liberal, and 1 Independent (aligned with the Federalists), while the House was 3 Laborites (Razze had retired), 2 Liberals, 3 Federalists, and one opposition-aligned Independent.

Continue or no?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

This timeline actually has some meat on its bones, I like it.

[OBD]

Part III: A New Era Begins

2022 opened with much hopes for the opposition - at long last, the Labor machine appeared to be faltering. Pickup opportunities opened up across the board - for one, President Tack announced his intention to retire, along with Vice President Truman, who expressed desire to return to Fremont. Senator Oregon Blue Dog of Fremont (who replaced DC in October) also announced his retirement, and like Truman returned to Denver to sort things out there. With an open Presidential race, the opposition had its first contested primary - organized by a joint committee of Federalists and Liberals, it was open to any member of the aforementioned parties, as well as PSOL's smaller People's Party. On the left of the Joint Primary was former Southern Governor KoopaDaQuick - a Peacenik who, following the decline of Labor, had slowly realigned herself and her party with the opposition. She received support from much of the left-of-center Liberal contingent. Running in the right-wing lane, meanwhile, was the long-suffering Senator LouisvilleThunder, with the support of returning Federalist veterans like fhtagn and Young Texan. Senator Ninja, Speaker Poirot, and Former Governor Cao were all mentioned as compromise candidates, and with neither faction outnumbering the other most expected that one of the 'middle ground' candidates would get the nod. However, in a surprising turn of events, a right-wing group of newbie Federalists led by Longite, a firebrand conservative from the South, managed to seize control of the floor and motivate zombie conservatives and new recruits alike to mobilize behind LouisvilleThunder, also demanding that Longite got the VP nod, a demand that LT agreed to. The enraged Liberals, left without representation, walked out of the convention, and nominated an unabashedly left Koopa/Weatherboy ticket. The Labor primary, meanwhile, fell below the radar - Former Speaker FalterinArc ultimately got the nod, with Senator KaiserDave filling the VP slot, and a fourth, centrist ticket of ASV/Whistler emerged (Whistler being a moderate Southern MP and tmth protege). The People’s Party, made up of the increasingly vocal demographic of Internet far-leftists, also elected to run a ticket.

With a five-way race under way, backdoor deals began occurring immediately. While the remnants of the Labor Party still held significant sway, they quickly realized that their best bet to stopping LouisvilleThunder was an alliance with the Liberal ticket - while most third-party preferences would choose the Liberals over the Federalists, Labor was still toxic to many former opposition members. In an impromptu agreement brokered by Governor Koopa and Senator OBD, Labor agreed to second-preference the Liberal ticket in exchange for the Liberals not contesting the Lincoln Senate race, as well as several NPC election-related concessions. This alliance, which caused outrage in Federalist circles, seemed to cement Koopa’s election.

February 2022 Election, First Round
LouisvilleThunder (F-KY) / Longite (F-LA) 41%
KoopaDaQuick (P/LIB-IA) / Weatherboy (LIB-SC) 25%
FalterinArc (LAB-WA) / KaiserDave (LAB-VT) 20%
AustralianSwingVoter (IND-WA) / Whistler (IND-MD) 9%
PSOL (People’s-AK) / Gilgamesh (People’s-OR) 5%

However, as Election Weekend went on, this narrative was dealt a serious of roundhouse blows. In a surprising turn, many Old-Guard Laborites refused to preference Koopa in protest, viewing the Liberal movement as the prime factor in Labor’s collapse, while ASV/Whistler votes broke unexpectedly hard for the Federalist ticket. With the People’s Party outright refusing to enter into agreements with any of the so-called “neoliberal” parties, the door to an upset was open.

February 2022 Election, Final Round
LouisvilleThunder (F-KY) / Longite (F-LA) 47%
KoopaDaQuick (P/LIB-IA) / Weatherboy (LIB-SC) 45%
Exhausted 8%

And when the dust settled, the Federalists emerged victorious for the first time in three years - defeating Koopa in the final round by a thin 2% margin, or just 3 votes. While Koopa and Weatherboy conceded gracefully, their supporters were less calm. Just before the registration deadline, five new Federalist voters with limited histories on the Atlas Forum proper had joined Atlasia - and many suspected that this was due to offsite recruitment, a practice that even the Labor Machine at the peak of its powers had condemned. Discord quickly became a hot mess, with multiple Laborites and Liberals calling for an investigation into the new zombie voters, with LT, Longite, and the Federalists publicly denying all allegations of impropriety. In any case, though, offsite recruitment was legal, and thus could pose no barrier to LT and Longite swearing into office.

The downballot elections were also competitive, with the Liberal House slate dealigning from that of the Federalists. However, the Liberals and Laborites didn’t collaborate at all for these races, and as a result both parties got burned - with reinvirogated Discord leadership and swelling ranks, the Federalists managed to secure 5 seats in the House. However, Labor held both their Senate seats - KaiserDave, now an entrenched incumbent with bipartisan support, won easily, while Rep. FalterinArc defeated PSOL and Encke in a contentious three-way battle to pick up retiring Senator OBD’s seat. With SirWoodbury taking LT’s place in the Senate, the composition of the Senate - two Laborites, two Federalists, one Liberal, and one right-leaning Independent - was maintained.

[OBD]

Recap (March 2022)

Lincoln Governorship
Incumbent: Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois)
Chancellor: AOC 2024 (Labor-New York) (Labor-Liberal coalition)

to March 2021: R2D2 (Labor-Pennsylvania)
March 2021-July 2021: S019 (Labor-New Jersey)
July 2021-present: Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois)

Fremont Ministership
Incumbent: Harry S. Truman (Labor-North Dakota)
Speaker for Parliament: Oregon Blue Dog (Labor-Oregon)

to October 2021: Harry S. Truman (Labor-North Dakota)
October 2021-November 2021: Newsom (Labor-California)
November 2021-February 2022: Siren (Independent-Idaho)
February 2022-present: Harry S. Truman (Labor-North Dakota)

Southern Governorship
Incumbent: Wallace2908 (Federalist-Alabama)
Speaker for Chamber: Muaddi'b (Federalist-Mississippi)

to January 2021: TimTurner (Labor-Texas)
January 2021-October 2021: KoopaDaQuick (Peace-Arkansas)
October 2021-present: Wallace2908 (Federalist-Alabama)

The Senate

Fremont C1: FalterinArc (Labor-Washington)
Fremont C2: AustralianSwingVoter (Independent-Washington)
South C1: SirWoodbury (Federalist-Virginia)
South C2: North Carolina Yankee (Federalist-North Carolina)
Lincoln C1: KaiserDave (Labor-Vermont)
Lincoln C2: Ninja0428 (Liberal-New Jersey)

Previous Senators
Fremont C1: OBD, Devout Centrist
Fremont C2: Scott
South C1: LT
South C2: None
Lincoln C1: Tack50
Lincoln C2: Blair

[OBD]

Part IV: Escalation

As LT and Longite swore into office after a hard-fought, controversial campaign, onlookers on all sides knew that the upcoming Presidency would be dramatic. After all, it was the first time in three years since a non-Laborite was elected President, and with the metaphorical last domino falling, the once-dominant Labor Party was now locked out of government.

And Labor's struggles would not end there. While both the Liberals and Federalists were now able and willing to tap into offsite recruiting, Labor's old guard remained steadfastly against it, refusing to even consider proposals by party members to scour left-wing websites and Discords for potential recruits. With offsite recruits from their rivals crossing into the double digits through the end of March, and several players burning out and quitting, many Laborites braced for yet another reckoning in April due to a combination of a dwindling (relative) base and leadership issues.

However, the 'opposition' parties had little time to celebrate. Determined to consolidate the party behind his Trumpist message, Longite continued to recruit new members while also building support against older Federalists. His primary target was the Senate - home of ASV and Ninja, two centrist Senators who had refused to bow to his right-wing agenda (the senators from Fremont and Lincoln played central roles in shooting down conservative gun and healthcare legislation pushed by him). While the Liberals could match recruiting in Lincoln, the Labor Party quickly fell behind in Fremont, and even with their support ASV fell to a Longite backer by a 53-47 margin. Ninja, meanwhile, just barely survived a Federalist challenge, with a strangely broad coalition of non-hardliner Laborites, Liberals, and disaffected Federalists (most prominently former Governor Cao and his successor, Brother Jonathan). Ultimately, though, the Vice President did what he had to do - secure a trifecta with which he could use to push through conservative legislation beyond simply repealing Labor statute. And push through he did - using tiebreaker powers and maintaining a fiercely unified caucus, President LT had much to sign throughout May and June.

Throughout this productive legislative period, the Federalists as a whole were far from unified - more moderate members had come into conflict with Longite's firebrand politics and tactics. But without an obvious challenger (and LT working hard behind the scenes to maintain party unity), a showdown between LT/Longite and a Liberal ticket became imminent, with Labor relegated to third-party status. In a calm (relative to February) affair, the Liberal Party decided to nominate Lincoln Senator (and senior member) Ninja0428 for President, pitting President LT against his former running mate from the October 2020 contest. To appeal to the left, Ninja selected veteran player and respected Fremont parliamentarian Siren as his VP. Meanwhile, the Labor Party nominated SevenEleven and Oregon Blue Dog as a sacrificial lamb ticket, focusing instead on expanding their House representation and defending their Senate seats.

June 2020 Presidential Election (215 ballots cast)
LouisvilleThunder (F-KY) / Longite (F-LA) 98 votes
Ninja (LIB-NJ) / Siren (I/LIB-ID) 74 votes
SevenEleven (LAB-CA) / Oregon Blue Dog (LAB-OR) 39 votes
Others 4 votes

Final Round
LouisvilleThunder (F-KY) / Longite (F-LA) 100 votes
Ninja (LIB-NJ) / Siren (I/LIB-ID) 98 votes
Exhausted 17 votes

The campaign period of the June 2021 election, which saw record-high turnout, was just as acrimonious as the previous election, with accusations of machine politics and illegal machinations flying from all sides. And the 'campaign of bitterness' continued after the election, where, once again, a lack of Labor preferences (19 of Labor's 43 voters did not preference Ninja) allowed LT to win despite winning just 45% of the first-round vote. Liberals blamed Labor for their defeat in the incredibly tight election, while Labor hit back, claiming that the Liberals had made no attempt to win their votes and that their loss was deserved. Consequently, Labor-Liberal relations would remain toxic, leaving even more room for error for the resurgent Federalists.

Downballot, though, things weren't as rosy for the Federalists. With downballot crossover basically nonexistent, the Federalists had lost the House (with the Liberals picking up a seat and Labor holding pat), and Labor had managed to narrowly hold its Senate seats (as Federalist candidate Arizona Iced Tea lost the support of Fremont's center-right establishment). And, the conflict between the conservative and moderate wings of the party was quickly coming to a head despite LT's successful re-election.

[OBD]

Well this didn't age well, lol

Besides the whole constitutional reform thing, Labor domination under the popular Scott shows no signs of ending, offsite recruiting petered out rather than intensifying, Wulfric and Ishan switched sides, basically no new players have burst onto the national scene, and the Liberals are now a defunct party.

Fun!

[DabbingSanta]

b]basically no new players have burst onto the national scene[/b]

Eight terms of any party is too long, and the federalists are weak on several key issues.  Change is coming soon!

[Joseph Cao]

Honestly the idea of a split between two leftist tickets in general and little things like this:

the increasingly vocal demographic of Internet far-left??ists, also elected to run a ticket

With a five-way race under way,

many Old-Guard Laborites refused to preference Koopa in protest, viewing the Liberal movement as the prime factor in Labor’s collapse

aged unexpectedly well. Aside from getting the election date wrong by one term.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Atlasia has been dying for at least a decade, but here we are. I won't pretend to know what's going on anymore but I always think it's prematue to declare the death of this game.