1992 if Roe v Wade was overturned

[BigVic]

How would the 1992 election had looked if SCOTUS voted in favour of Planned Parenthood over Casey in Planned Parenthood v Casey

Discuss with maps

[OSR stands with Israel]

Would benefit HW since I think Clinton was pretty closed to maxed out on what he realistically could win in 1992

[brucejoel99]

[snip]

Would benefit HW since I think Clinton was pretty closed to maxed out on what he realistically could win in 1992

This assumes that the "abortion-is-a-GOTV-machine" shoe in this country just doesn't suddenly flip from its right foot to its left as soon as Roe is overturned. I mean, pro-life voters were already backing Poppy Bush, but how does a Casey that overturns Roe not ensure that all pro-choice voters whose #1 issue is or can possibly be abortion are driven out of the woodwork to vote for Clinton, presumably to Perot's detriment, as some pro-choice-but-economically-conservative Republicans who defected from the GOP to him IRL instead pick Clinton in this scenario? Not to mention that some close Senate results might've also been changed as well, like NY, where D'Amato only very narrowly managed to win IRL's '92.

The better question is whether Casey is itself overturned ITTL &, if so, how soon. Rehnquist, Scalia, & Thomas would've been ecstatic about overturning Roe, sure, but White was still gonna retire once a Democratic President took office, & given the post-Casey outcry that would've been perceived as at least somewhat contributing to his victory ITTL, there's no way that Clinton doesn't go with somebody just as, if not more liberal than RBG. The first abortion case thereafter presumably comes down to O'Connor, who obviously loathed the idea of scrapping Roe to begin with, but might well pull a Roberts in June Medical Services & say that stare-decisis interests require her not to reinstate Roe so soon after its overturning ITTL in Casey, albeit only if polls suggest that's the median American position. Otherwise, there's just as good, if not a better chance that overturning Roe turns O'Connor into a new Blackmun/Stevens/Souter post-Casey, pushed to the left against her will by her own ideological bloc because of their own extremeness just as they were; not to mention, post-Casey public outcry ITTL may be so bad that it even pushes Kennedy further to the left than he ever was IRL's '90s. In any case, the Court's pro-life justices might only have a few years of victory, as Americans might've made clear soon enough that a majority of them didn't support overturning Roe & felt that such occurring was blatant judicial activism on the right's part. Basically, expect the '90s ITTL to talk about abortion as much as we're probably about to spend the 2020s talking about it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

[snip]

Would benefit HW since I think Clinton was pretty closed to maxed out on what he realistically could win in 1992

This assumes that the "abortion-is-a-GOTV-machine" shoe in this country just doesn't suddenly flip from its right foot to its left as soon as Roe is overturned. I mean, pro-life voters were already backing Poppy Bush, but how does a Casey that overturns Roe not ensure that all pro-choice voters whose #1 issue is or can possibly be abortion are driven out of the woodwork to vote for Clinton, presumably to Perot's detriment, as some pro-choice-but-economically-conservative Republicans who defected from the GOP to him IRL instead pick Clinton in this scenario? Not to mention that some close Senate results might've also been changed as well, like NY, where D'Amato only very narrowly managed to win IRL's '92.

The better question is whether Casey is itself overturned ITTL &, if so, how soon. Rehnquist, Scalia, & Thomas would've been ecstatic about overturning Roe, sure, but White was still gonna retire once a Democratic President took office, & given the post-Casey outcry that would've been perceived as at least somewhat contributing to his victory ITTL, there's no way that Clinton doesn't go with somebody just as, if not more liberal than RBG. The first abortion case thereafter presumably comes down to O'Connor, who obviously loathed the idea of scrapping Roe to begin with, but might well pull a Roberts in June Medical Services & say that stare-decisis interests require her not to reinstate Roe so soon after its overturning ITTL in Casey, albeit only if polls suggest that's the median American position. Otherwise, there's just as good, if not a better chance that overturning Roe turns O'Connor into a new Blackmun/Stevens/Souter post-Casey, pushed to the left against her will by her own ideological bloc because of their own extremeness just as they were; not to mention, post-Casey public outcry ITTL may be so bad that it even pushes Kennedy further to the left than he ever was IRL's '90s. In any case, the Court's pro-life justices might only have a few years of victory, as Americans might've made clear soon enough that a majority of them didn't support overturning Roe & felt that such occurring was blatant judicial activism on the right's part. Basically, expect the '90s ITTL to talk about abortion as much as we're probably about to spend the 2020s talking about it.

Sure but I think Clinton pretty much won all the states anyway that would have turned on the GOP over Roe. Like in this case I also see him winning NH/NJ > 5 points and doing better in the PV as well but I dont think it benefits him in the Electoral College. On the other hand Roe being overturned may very well result in many dissatisfied republicans who voted Perot to vote for HW thus flipping GA/MT for sure and maybe OH/NV as well.

Now I could even see HW doing worse in the Tipping Point state which he lost by 4.5 points in OTL but his defeat doesnt look as bad on the electoral map

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

[snip]

Would benefit HW since I think Clinton was pretty closed to maxed out on what he realistically could win in 1992

This assumes that the "abortion-is-a-GOTV-machine" shoe in this country just doesn't suddenly flip from its right foot to its left as soon as Roe is overturned. I mean, pro-life voters were already backing Poppy Bush, but how does a Casey that overturns Roe not ensure that all pro-choice voters whose #1 issue is or can possibly be abortion are driven out of the woodwork to vote for Clinton, presumably to Perot's detriment, as some pro-choice-but-economically-conservative Republicans who defected from the GOP to him IRL instead pick Clinton in this scenario? Not to mention that some close Senate results might've also been changed as well, like NY, where D'Amato only very narrowly managed to win IRL's '92.

The better question is whether Casey is itself overturned ITTL &, if so, how soon. Rehnquist, Scalia, & Thomas would've been ecstatic about overturning Roe, sure, but White was still gonna retire once a Democratic President took office, & given the post-Casey outcry that would've been perceived as at least somewhat contributing to his victory ITTL, there's no way that Clinton doesn't go with somebody just as, if not more liberal than RBG. The first abortion case thereafter presumably comes down to O'Connor, who obviously loathed the idea of scrapping Roe to begin with, but might well pull a Roberts in June Medical Services & say that stare-decisis interests require her not to reinstate Roe so soon after its overturning ITTL in Casey, albeit only if polls suggest that's the median American position. Otherwise, there's just as good, if not a better chance that overturning Roe turns O'Connor into a new Blackmun/Stevens/Souter post-Casey, pushed to the left against her will by her own ideological bloc because of their own extremeness just as they were; not to mention, post-Casey public outcry ITTL may be so bad that it even pushes Kennedy further to the left than he ever was IRL's '90s. In any case, the Court's pro-life justices might only have a few years of victory, as Americans might've made clear soon enough that a majority of them didn't support overturning Roe & felt that such occurring was blatant judicial activism on the right's part. Basically, expect the '90s ITTL to talk about abortion as much as we're probably about to spend the 2020s talking about it.

Sure but I think Clinton pretty much won all the states anyway that would have turned on the GOP over Roe. Like in this case I also see him winning NH/NJ > 5 points and doing better in the PV as well but I dont think it benefits him in the Electoral College. On the other hand Roe being overturned may very well result in many dissatisfied republicans who voted Perot to vote for HW thus flipping GA/MT for sure and maybe OH/NV as well.

Now I could even see HW doing worse in the Tipping Point state which he lost by 4.5 points in OTL but his defeat doesnt look as bad on the electoral map

What pro-life Republicans were voting Perot to begin with?

[OSR stands with Israel]

[snip]

Would benefit HW since I think Clinton was pretty closed to maxed out on what he realistically could win in 1992

This assumes that the "abortion-is-a-GOTV-machine" shoe in this country just doesn't suddenly flip from its right foot to its left as soon as Roe is overturned. I mean, pro-life voters were already backing Poppy Bush, but how does a Casey that overturns Roe not ensure that all pro-choice voters whose #1 issue is or can possibly be abortion are driven out of the woodwork to vote for Clinton, presumably to Perot's detriment, as some pro-choice-but-economically-conservative Republicans who defected from the GOP to him IRL instead pick Clinton in this scenario? Not to mention that some close Senate results might've also been changed as well, like NY, where D'Amato only very narrowly managed to win IRL's '92.

The better question is whether Casey is itself overturned ITTL &, if so, how soon. Rehnquist, Scalia, & Thomas would've been ecstatic about overturning Roe, sure, but White was still gonna retire once a Democratic President took office, & given the post-Casey outcry that would've been perceived as at least somewhat contributing to his victory ITTL, there's no way that Clinton doesn't go with somebody just as, if not more liberal than RBG. The first abortion case thereafter presumably comes down to O'Connor, who obviously loathed the idea of scrapping Roe to begin with, but might well pull a Roberts in June Medical Services & say that stare-decisis interests require her not to reinstate Roe so soon after its overturning ITTL in Casey, albeit only if polls suggest that's the median American position. Otherwise, there's just as good, if not a better chance that overturning Roe turns O'Connor into a new Blackmun/Stevens/Souter post-Casey, pushed to the left against her will by her own ideological bloc because of their own extremeness just as they were; not to mention, post-Casey public outcry ITTL may be so bad that it even pushes Kennedy further to the left than he ever was IRL's '90s. In any case, the Court's pro-life justices might only have a few years of victory, as Americans might've made clear soon enough that a majority of them didn't support overturning Roe & felt that such occurring was blatant judicial activism on the right's part. Basically, expect the '90s ITTL to talk about abortion as much as we're probably about to spend the 2020s talking about it.

Sure but I think Clinton pretty much won all the states anyway that would have turned on the GOP over Roe. Like in this case I also see him winning NH/NJ > 5 points and doing better in the PV as well but I dont think it benefits him in the Electoral College. On the other hand Roe being overturned may very well result in many dissatisfied republicans who voted Perot to vote for HW thus flipping GA/MT for sure and maybe OH/NV as well.

Now I could even see HW doing worse in the Tipping Point state which he lost by 4.5 points in OTL but his defeat doesnt look as bad on the electoral map

What pro-life Republicans were voting Perot to begin with?

I mean there were many conservative republicans who turned against Bush on the tax issue for example and other stuff which he was viewed as “betraying” conservatives on . If Roe was overturned , Bush would have an issue to use to get them back in the fold even though it only would be some .


HW really wasn’t liked much by either economic or social conservatives and national security wasn’t a big enough issue in 1992 to make up for that .

[Adjective-Statement]

If Planned Parenthood v. Casey is decided early enough in 1992, there would be a lot of pressure for a liberal stalwart like Mario Cuomo to jump into the primaries. The race is still decided by the economy and peace abroad (which also hurt Bush; most saw no need for big military spending with the Soviet Union gone and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait repelled).


President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX) / Fmr. Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL)