2032: Sen. JD Vance/Gov. Tulsi Gabbard (R) vs Pres. Stacey Abrams/VP Kyrsten Sinema (D)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

In 2024 after a term filled with inflation, a recession and poor approval ratings, Biden is defeated by a Trump/Noem ticket. Trump's second term is quite disruptive, he replaces most of the government with loyalists, he continues purging people insufficiently Trumpy from the GOP, he signs far-right legislation into law with the help of a large Senate majority and like his first term there is a new Trump scandal every day.
In 2028 with the incumbent Trump administration suffering from low approvals, Republicans seem doomed to lose. Georgia Governor Stacey Abrams (who after winning in her 3rd bid for governor in 2026 made national news for enacting a radically socially progressive agenda in her state) defeats Rep. Ro Khanna, Gov. Gavin Newsom, former VP Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg in the democratic primary mostly due to dominating the Southern states. On the GOP side, incumbent VP Kristi Noem wins a crowded Republican primary against former Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tom Cotton, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Tim Scott, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Kari Lake and Sen. Herschel Walker. Abrams picks former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema as her VP pick to appeal to moderates while Kristi Noem (who has been seen as increasingly "establishment" during Trump's term) picks Senator Ted Cruz as her running mate. Abrams ends up defeating Noem by a reasonable amount and luckily Noem conceded straight away.
Abrams' term has been mostly defined by a socially liberal agenda, establishing extensive laws protecting minority rights, heavily reforming (and in some cases cutting funding to) the police, pushing environmental restrictions, less immigration restrictions and most controversially attempting to police "dangerous" online misinformation which ended up being struck down by the Supreme Court. This has made Abrams reviled among the right, yet beloved by a lot of progressive liberals. However a lot of the left does not like Abrams because as she promised in the campaign trail, she has barely enacted any economically left policies, which many attribute to her VP who has become a villain among the left (so much so that some advisors pushed her to drop her as VP for re-election). The economy has been okay, not good but not bad either, which is criticized by her political enemies but praised by her allies. The Abrams administration has also been more involved in foreign conflicts, on a similar level as the Obama administration did, doing "peacekeeping operations" in nations across the world and increasing the military's use, which has been criticised by factions of the left as well as most Republicans.

In 2032, Stacey Abrams is seen as a vulnerable incumbent. Sen. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (who ran for retiring Schumer's seat in 2028) ran a primary against Abrams, winning a few states but ultimately failing and dropping out after Super Tuesday II.
On the Republican side, there was much disarray as there was no clear frontrunner. Senate Majority Leader Sen. Josh Hawley (who had become the primary face of opposition to Abrams and is seen as the face of the basically entirely Trumpist GOP) was widely expected to enter the race and become the frontrunner but surprisingly declined, dismissing any presidential interest. NC Governor Mark Robinson was seen as the evangelical's candidate and did well in parts of the South, especially with African-Americans trending towards the GOP in the last decade. Rand Paul ran for a 3rd time and won NH, but ultimately failed to gain much traction. Pennsylvanian Sen. Mehmet "Dr" Oz took the moderate lane and tried to appeal to a fading "moderate" faction of the party and paint himself as a Trump-like celebrity candidate but failed to win a single state.
Ultimately the nomination came down to two people. One was the House Majority Whip and Dean of Arizona's congressional delegation Rep. Paul Gosar. Gosar had long been viewed as one of the most far-right congressmen in America, and yet he had tremendous power and influence by having numerous allies elected to Congress as well as being the ideological leader of the "nationalist" wing of the party. Gosar, despite a nerve illness impairing his movement enough where he had to use a wheelchair as well as his advanced age at 73 years old, had produced a Trump-like cultish following among his faction of the party, often accused of violent rhetoric, racism and bigotry.
However Gosar narrowly lost the nomination to Sen. J. D. Vance, who represented someone not too rhetorically extreme, but moderately to the left of the party economically. He had become a vocal opponent of President Abrams' foreign policy and trade policy, verbally sparring with VP Sinema in the Senate on more than one occasion. A big boost to Vance's campaign was his endorsement from ally Majority Leader Sen. Hawley, who was the most popular figure in the party (a title inherited on an extremely lesser scale from the recently late former President Donald Trump, who is still revered as a near-deity in the party).
After Super Tuesday, only Gosar and Vance were left in the race and the majority of the party coalesced around Vance due to fears about Gosar's electability, causing anger from Gosar supporters who called the primaries "rigged" and "bought by the establishment". Gosar himself said "the cabal of satanistic GOP elites are trying to steal this nomination from us, just like they tried to do to Trump", causing a ruckus at the convention. Nevertheless, Vance easily dominated the primaries.

Vance picked close friend Hawaiian governor Tulsi Gabbard (who was elected as an independent in 2030 after an ambassadorship in the Trump administration and a media career) as Vice President, despite concerns from party officials over her being a registered independent, former Democrat who holds positions still way to the left of the party on some issues. This dismayed Gosar supporters, who decided to run their own candidate as an independent, political commentator and one-term Illinois Representative (he was elected in an upset after winning a crowded primary after Rep. Miller's retirement) Nick Fuentes. Fuentes picked radio host Alex Jones as his VP choice and has received millions in crypto donations and tons of media attention, but is polling poorly.
The left ran their own candidate, former Kentucky Gov. Charles Booker (held office 2027-31), who was not backed by almost any elected leftist politicians but still received a lot of donations and social media attention (but not much mainstream media attention).

Nevertheless, the two main candidates are two-term Ohio Senator J. D. Vance, running a populist anti-war economically liberal campaign on a ticket with politically independent Gov. Tulsi Gabbard, and President Stacey Abrams, running for a second-term to not let the "radical far-right" win and continue a socially progressive agenda on a ticket with moderate VP Kyrsten Sinema.
Who wins?