People are still overestimating Ron DeSantis

[Utah Neolib]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

[President Johnson]

It's certainly possible DeSantis will flame out at some time between now an spring 2024, though I better overestimate him than vise versa. What speaks for him is that he seems to appeal to both Trumpist and establishment Republicans and that he's the governor of a large state that happened to be competitive or at least semi-competitive. Furthermore, he's relatively young and his military career is an asset as well.

When it comes to electability in a general election, it's more unclear whether he can win beyond Republicans. I haven't neither seen evidence he appeals to Rust Belt voters nor suburban voters in areas Biden gained from Republicans. Of course, he didn't have the chance to prove it so far, though I would take nothing for granted here for the Democrats. Obviously the general election will also be determined by factors beyond candidate's control.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott Walker was screwed cause 2016 was a mini realignment year that completely upended a lot of things. If the Reaganites still had control over the GOP in 2016 then Scott Walker would have indeed been a very real contender for the GOP nomination but by 2016 they no longer had that control but didnt realize that yet.

Rick Santorum is a horrible comparison given he lost his race for re-election by 17 points and was out of politics for 6 years by the time he ran for President.

[Hollywood]

We trust DeSantis to make reasonable policy decisions without fracturing the varying Republican coalitions of Trump voters, moderate Republicans and that huge group of Independents.  The man has smacked down all the BS fake news that have been thrown at him, and has come away looking like a boss on his handling of Covid-19 in comparison his former peer in NY and President Hopeful turned laughing stock, Murderer Cuomo.  The man turned Disney into a social pariah defending his parental rights bill despite the totally fabricated stories.  They were accusing him of fabricating Covid Statistics while two Democrat Governors were doing exactly that.  The fact that many Republicans think could possible take down Trump should amaze you.  I don't why Democrats aren't taking notes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He underpolled when the Voting begins I don't believe those plus -18 polls FL is a R 2 state not R 9 state but he is benefiting from running with Cuban Rubio instead of Rick Scott, if was Scott whom almost cost DeSantis the election both of them won by 0.5 but the Gov race isn't over if it was played out today DeSantis would only won by 3 that Trump won by not 12 like a Greg Abbott, that's because Biden Approvals are still low, but that's not to say on EDay Biden Approvals won't come around, no one is enthused over Ron DeSantis Hollywood he is UNDERPOLLING Trump on all the polls

[Senator-elect Spark]

He is vastly overrated. I don't know what appeal he has to the Rust Belt or independents.

[Ferguson97]

He's probably correctly-rated for his chances in the primary, but overrated for his chances in a general election.

I don't get this idea that he's some unbeatable titan. At best, he's a Generic R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He's probably correctly-rated for his chances in the primary, but overrated for his chances in a general election.

I don't get this idea that he's some unbeatable titan. At best, he's a Generic R.

Ron DeSantis pretty much would keep all the Trump voters, do better than Trump with suburbanites cause unlike Trump he wont act out on twitter the same way or behave as badly and he is way better than Trump at controlling a narrative.


There is a chance he could be the most electable nominee we have had since Reagan

[Suburbia]

He is vastly overrated. I don't know what appeal he has to the Rust Belt or independents.

He's young. He can win places in the Northeast like Nassau, etc. that Republicans have not won in years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait til he wins reelection

[ElectionsGuy]

How many threads do we need saying Ron DeSantis is overrated and comparing him to Scott Walker. Still stuck in 2021?

I would actually agree on paper, but only because I think Trump is going to run again and will clearly win the nomination without any popular opposition.

[Person Man]

He is vastly overrated. I don't know what appeal he has to the Rust Belt or independents.

Don't these people make up the bulk of people who live in the suburbs and beaches of Florida?

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis comes from a completely different wing of the party than Scott Walker or Rick Santorum.  DeSantis governs and is perceived as more moderate by GOP primary voters, which is an enviable place to be for Republican candidates for president.  DeSantis is much more analogous to Dubya in 2000 or Romney in 2012 than he is arch-conservatives who flamed-out like Cruz, Walker, Rubio, etc.

Whichever Republican captures the moderate/anti-establishment lane in 2024 will be the nominee, just like what happened in 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2016. 

Secondly, his positive poll numbers with independents in Florida is suggestive of DeSantis' appeal to a general election electorate.  He checks many of the same boxes Trump does while not being quite the anathema to suburbanites, so its hard to see how he's anything but an improvement over the Orange Cheetoh.

[2016]

DeSantis comes from a completely different wing of the party than Scott Walker or Rick Santorum.  DeSantis governs and is perceived as more moderate by GOP primary voters, which is an enviable place to be for Republican candidates for president.  DeSantis is much more analogous to Dubya in 2000 or Romney in 2012 than he is arch-conservatives who flamed-out like Cruz, Walker, Rubio, etc.

Whichever Republican captures the moderate/anti-establishment lane in 2024 will be the nominee, just like what happened in 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2016. 

Secondly, his positive poll numbers with independents in Florida is suggestive of DeSantis' appeal to a general election electorate.  He checks many of the same boxes Trump does while not being quite the anathema to suburbanites, so its hard to see how he's anything but an improvement over the Orange Cheetoh.

Not only that BUT look at the Fundraising by him. The Guy has raised almost 150 Millon $$$ in his 1st Term as Governor, unheard of.

That tells me not only is he liked about the Small Donor Class but also the big GOP Donor Class.

He ain't going to flame out like Scott Walker and the folks who think he will lose this year are grasping at straws.

[Umengus]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

"plenty of other good candidates"

Who ?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

DeSantis comes from a completely different wing of the party than Scott Walker or Rick Santorum.  DeSantis governs and is perceived as more moderate by GOP primary voters, which is an enviable place to be for Republican candidates for president.  DeSantis is much more analogous to Dubya in 2000 or Romney in 2012 than he is arch-conservatives who flamed-out like Cruz, Walker, Rubio, etc.

Whichever Republican captures the moderate/anti-establishment lane in 2024 will be the nominee, just like what happened in 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2016. 

Secondly, his positive poll numbers with independents in Florida is suggestive of DeSantis' appeal to a general election electorate.  He checks many of the same boxes Trump does while not being quite the anathema to suburbanites, so its hard to see how he's anything but an improvement over the Orange Cheetoh.

I agree that a GOP nominee who takes the "moderate/anti-establishment lane"  will be well-positioned for both the nomination and the general. And that could have been DeSantis. But not anymore. He blew that up when he decided to go full-tilt, no-holds-barred culture warrior.

Sure, he's built a pile of low-hanging, pet-conservative-issue skulls he can pose atop as he screams defiance at the educated, intelligent segment of society.  But playing screaming zealot will not be winning him any moderates. And if he doesn't keep playing that role, then all is work will be for nothing, and he'll tumble into the mass of wanna-be Trump successors.

[Utah Neolib]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

"plenty of other good candidates"

Who ?

Candidates that still have a decent chance at GOP Nomination:
Ted Cruz (aka Zodiac Killer)
Tim Scott
Nikki Haley
and others

[Illiniwek]

Rick Perry 2.0

[Fuzzy Bear]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

What sets DeSantis apart is that he is current and hasn't lost an election.  It's what set apart George Bush from Harold Stassen in 1980.

[Skill and Chance]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

What sets DeSantis apart is that he is current and hasn't lost an election.  It's what set apart George Bush from Harold Stassen in 1980.

I think he means in the year they ran for president?  I think this is a valid point.  Recently, there have been a lot of "popular middle-aged conservative governor" candidates who looked very promising but flopped in the primary. 

Walker was the popular incumbent governor when his campaign flamed out in 2016.  He didn't lose the
 governorship until 2018.

Perry ran as a locally popular big state incumbent in 2012 and flopped.  You could say he was old news in 2016, but not in 2012.

Christie was also a locally popular incumbent governor with a winning record in 2016.   He had a scandal on his record, but it seems pretty tame in retrospect.  He also struggled and never broke out in the primary.   

[Fuzzy Bear]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

What sets DeSantis apart is that he is current and hasn't lost an election.  It's what set apart George Bush from Harold Stassen in 1980.

I think he means in the year they ran for president?  I think this is a valid point.  Recently, there have been a lot of "popular middle-aged conservative governor" candidates who looked very promising but flopped in the primary. 

Walker was the popular incumbent governor when his campaign flamed out in 2016.  He didn't lose the
 governorship until 2018.

Perry ran as a locally popular big state incumbent in 2012 and flopped.  You could say he was old news in 2016, but not in 2012.

Christie was also a locally popular incumbent governor with a winning record in 2016.   He had a scandal on his record, but it seems pretty tame in retrospect.  He also struggled and never broke out in the primary.   

Larry Sabato predicted in 2015 that Scott Walker would be the GOP nominee.  I was happy to see him proved wrong.

[Person Man]

People here, for basically an entire year at this point, keep thinking it’s Trump or DeSantis. While that may be true, plenty of other GOP candidates have a solid shot at the nomination. I’m also not entirely sure what truly sets apart DeSantis from the likes of Scott Walker, or Rick Santorum.

What sets DeSantis apart is that he is current and hasn't lost an election.  It's what set apart George Bush from Harold Stassen in 1980.

I think he means in the year they ran for president?  I think this is a valid point.  Recently, there have been a lot of "popular middle-aged conservative governor" candidates who looked very promising but flopped in the primary. 

Walker was the popular incumbent governor when his campaign flamed out in 2016.  He didn't lose the
 governorship until 2018.

Perry ran as a locally popular big state incumbent in 2012 and flopped.  You could say he was old news in 2016, but not in 2012.

Christie was also a locally popular incumbent governor with a winning record in 2016.   He had a scandal on his record, but it seems pretty tame in retrospect.  He also struggled and never broke out in the primary.   

Larry Sabato predicted in 2015 that Scott Walker would be the GOP nominee.  I was happy to see him proved wrong.

So there you go. It would have been great to see the morning line for the 2012 primary though but I know people didn't see him happening until after Iowa, NH, and SC.

[Fuzzy Bear]

We trust DeSantis to make reasonable policy decisions without fracturing the varying Republican coalitions of Trump voters, moderate Republicans and that huge group of Independents.  The man has smacked down all the BS fake news that have been thrown at him, and has come away looking like a boss on his handling of Covid-19 in comparison his former peer in NY and President Hopeful turned laughing stock, Murderer Cuomo.  The man turned Disney into a social pariah defending his parental rights bill despite the totally fabricated stories.  They were accusing him of fabricating Covid Statistics while two Democrat Governors were doing exactly that.  The fact that many Republicans think could possible take down Trump should amaze you.  I don't why Democrats aren't taking notes.

And he's done all of this in the face of naysayers.  That's what I like about DeSantis the best; his courage here.

By the time it is time to run for President, the COVID-19 Lockdown/Maskaholic coalition will be seen for what they are; manipulators and cowards.  DeSantis's policies were realism in the face of manufactured hysteria, and the approval of this is manifested by the number of people voting with their feet.

There were no BLM and Antifa riots in Florida cities in 2020 because Ron DeSantis made it known that he would allow Law Enforcement to respond accordingly, with the expectation that BLM and Antifa and any other protesting group would obey the law and actually protest peacefully (within the law) or be arrested and face charges.  He did not allow a campaign of guilt-tripping manipulation and intimidation to allow the rule of law to be suspended in Florida, and, as a result, people protested, but businesses were not looted on the scale of other places, and those who did commit crimes were prosecuted.  This is important because 2020 represented the largest assault on property rights in the history or America; it wasn't the Japanese Internment (which was a shameful land and property grab among other things), but it was a refusal to enforce laws against theft and vandalism on a massive scale.

DeSantis let it be known that this would not be tolerated, while many others (including many elected Republicans) surrendered to the mob.  And he did this without name-calling, but with resolve and firmness.  He simply stated that he would ensure that laws were enforcd.  (And a Florida Governor has that power; if a Woke Prosecutor were seeking to not prosecute rioters, or grossly reduce charges, the Governor has the power to assign those cases to a Prosecutor who would not do that.)  This is what sound people expect from their government.  Likewise with Disney; indeed, many people who had viewed Disney was still "family-friendly" were shocked at the revelation of what Disney had become and approve of DeSantis not rewarding them.  (And while I recognize that the issue there is complicated, I don't believe a corporation like Disney should ever have the kind of GOVERNMENTAL power it had been granted.)

DeSantis stood up to all comers.  He's got courage and competence.  He stood up where few did. 

[Person Man]

We trust DeSantis to make reasonable policy decisions without fracturing the varying Republican coalitions of Trump voters, moderate Republicans and that huge group of Independents.  The man has smacked down all the BS fake news that have been thrown at him, and has come away looking like a boss on his handling of Covid-19 in comparison his former peer in NY and President Hopeful turned laughing stock, Murderer Cuomo.  The man turned Disney into a social pariah defending his parental rights bill despite the totally fabricated stories.  They were accusing him of fabricating Covid Statistics while two Democrat Governors were doing exactly that.  The fact that many Republicans think could possible take down Trump should amaze you.  I don't why Democrats aren't taking notes.

And he's done all of this in the face of naysayers.  That's what I like about DeSantis the best; his courage here.

By the time it is time to run for President, the COVID-19 Lockdown/Maskaholic coalition will be seen for what they are; manipulators and cowards.  DeSantis's policies were realism in the face of manufactured hysteria, and the approval of this is manifested by the number of people voting with their feet.

There were no BLM and Antifa riots in Florida cities in 2020 because Ron DeSantis made it known that he would allow Law Enforcement to respond accordingly, with the expectation that BLM and Antifa and any other protesting group would obey the law and actually protest peacefully (within the law) or be arrested and face charges.  He did not allow a campaign of guilt-tripping manipulation and intimidation to allow the rule of law to be suspended in Florida, and, as a result, people protested, but businesses were not looted on the scale of other places, and those who did commit crimes were prosecuted.  This is important because 2020 represented the largest assault on property rights in the history or America; it wasn't the Japanese Internment (which was a shameful land and property grab among other things), but it was a refusal to enforce laws against theft and vandalism on a massive scale.

DeSantis let it be known that this would not be tolerated, while many others (including many elected Republicans) surrendered to the mob.  And he did this without name-calling, but with resolve and firmness.  He simply stated that he would ensure that laws were enforcd.  (And a Florida Governor has that power; if a Woke Prosecutor were seeking to not prosecute rioters, or grossly reduce charges, the Governor has the power to assign those cases to a Prosecutor who would not do that.)  This is what sound people expect from their government.  Likewise with Disney; indeed, many people who had viewed Disney was still "family-friendly" were shocked at the revelation of what Disney had become and approve of DeSantis not rewarding them.  (And while I recognize that the issue there is complicated, I don't believe a corporation like Disney should ever have the kind of GOVERNMENTAL power it had been granted.)

DeSantis stood up to all comers.  He's got courage and competence.  He stood up where few did. 

There is a case for him being the next W, who was also an effective Governor who swung his swing start to the hard-right and was able to sell himself as a pragmatic moderate, a solid right-winger, and generally a "compassionate conservative" who has crossover appeal to minorities, women, and even a couple of liberals.

I don't think that he is for Republicans what Obama was between 2007 and 2008 or what Reagan was, but I think for a time he could be a big deal who probably get re-elected and is remembered as either as an average president like Obama or Clinton or a bad one like W. 

[sg0508]

Rather than focusing his time right now on the FL housing crisis and the home insurance crisis, he's focused on Disney and on "Don't Say Gay". 

I'm telling you, it's probably not enough to defeat him in Nov given the pathetic slate of challengers he could have from the other side, but he's waning on some people, many who gave him very high marks just a year ago about his handling of covid.