SCOTUS overturns Roe megathread (pg 53 - confirmed)

[Progressive Pessimist]

There is a lot of debate of who the ultimate apathetic culprits will be in this ruling: people who didn't vote for Gore, didn't vote for Clinton, McConnell and the Garland appointment larceny, Ginsburg for not retiring, etc. But I think it's going to depend on whether it's a 6-3 or 5-4 ruling in the end. if it's 6-3 there is no guarantee that on Earth 2 Clinton would have even had a Democratic Senate that would have allowed her to appoint any Justices. And if the Garland appointment still happened but Trump still won, Ginsburg still would have died and brought the court back to a 5-4 conservative majority.

My point is that there are so many permutations of how the court would be made up by this point, in different circumstances, that we're just going to be making ourselves insane.

The easiest thing to accept is that we live in the worst reality possible, and our side has worse luck than Arthur Fleck, unceasingly. Just accept that there isn't, and never was any hope. This was always going to happen because our country was constructed poorly and barely updated from an already unsustainable position. And there is almost no changing that either, especially with the future we are guaranteed to have to deal with. By the time we possible do get our way, when an entire generation of ignoramuses dies off, it'll be too late by that point, if we aren't already consumed by a supernova or rising tides. I hope for a quick, short apocalypse. Let's just get it over with and then we all don't even need to worry about anything anymore.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can France and the UK take the Northeast back under their control, please? I think independence was a mistake.

But really, is it weird that the 6-3 decision actually makes me feel a little better than a 5-4 decision would have? It suggests to me that this was inevitable.

I've said it before, but with all the speculation of how the makeup of the court would be if Ginsburg retired, Garland was confirmed, or Clinton elected I don't think any of that would have led to a majority decision upholding Roe/Casey. I don't think a 5-4 liberal court was ever in the cards-things just don't work out that well for our side ever.

If we ever were to get a majority on the court it would probably have involved either, or both, of the 1988 and 2000 elections going the other way. And even then, considering the butterfly effect, who knows what other consequences would have happened.

We have no choice but to just try and stop things from getting even worse. That's all we can do. Too many Americans lacked the foresight to see this coming in nearly ever past election, save for 2020, and I can only hope that those who care about reproductive rights actually remain proactive, politically, in the future. We only seem to learn lessons as a country when we are already in the abyss. And even then, that's me being optimistic.

I have always thought that this country was doomed from the start, but it's getting ridiculous now and I still can't shake the feeling that things are still going to get even worse. Can you really blame me for thinking that?

AG Garland: States can't ban FDA-approved abortion pills on safety grounds

For now...

Guns now have more rights in the US than women.

"The GOP treat objects like women, man!"

[Progressive Pessimist]

everything only gets worse forever

watch them come for gay marriage next

That'll be on my tombstone.*

*I don't actually want to be buried, but I think I made my point.*

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can France and the UK take the Northeast back under their control, please? I think independence was a mistake.

Hell, just take the Original 13: 56-44. #WelcomeBackLabour

Sure, that'll do as well. Sorry for leaving you out.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can France and the UK take the Northeast back under their control, please? I think independence was a mistake.

But really, is it weird that the 6-3 decision actually makes me feel a little better than a 5-4 decision would have? It suggests to me that this was inevitable.

I've said it before, but with all the speculation of how the makeup of the court would be if Ginsburg retired, Garland was confirmed, or Clinton elected I don't think any of that would have led to a majority decision upholding Roe/Casey. I don't think a 5-4 liberal court was ever in the cards-things just don't work out that well for our side ever.

If we ever were to get a majority on the court it would probably have involved either, or both, of the 1988 and 2000 elections going the other way. And even then, considering the butterfly effect, who knows what other consequences would have happened.

We have no choice but to just try and stop things from getting even worse. That's all we can do. Too many Americans lacked the foresight to see this coming in nearly ever past election, save for 2020, and I can only hope that those who care about reproductive rights actually remain proactive, politically, in the future. We only seem to learn lessons as a country when we are already in the abyss. And even then, that's me being optimistic.

I have always thought that this country was doomed from the start, but it's getting ridiculous now and I still can't shake the feeling that things are still going to get even worse. Can you really blame me for thinking that?

AG Garland: States can't ban FDA-approved abortion pills on safety grounds

For now...

Guns now have more rights in the US than women.

"The GOP treat objects like women, man!"

The 2000 election was irrelevant for SCOTUS.  No one left the Court until 2005.  2004 and 2016 were the big ones, assuming Kerry or Clinton would have had a cooperative senate.

I look at it in a butterfly effect way. Gore winning would have likely altered who was President from 2004 on (I doubt Democrats would have won in 2004 in that circumstance either) and maybe the GOP would have gone in a different direction for that election and appointed less terrible justices, if they got to appoint any at all. I don't know, it's all speculation, probably worthless speculation, but that election still bothers me since it put us on track in general for where we are today, beyond the Supreme Court. I insist that things generally would have been better today if Bush never won.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/lyzl/status/1540490191080771586

Nothing says "pro-life" like attempted vehicular manslaughter!

We were so concerned about the left-wing terrorism that we forgot about the right wing terrorism.

This country is broken, and it's so damn sad.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What about this for a model law?

First 15 weeks: legal on request
Weeks 16-24: rape, incest, human trafficking, domestic violence, extreme poverty, maternal health, fetal anomalies, female is <14 years of age
Weeks 25-birth: extreme medical emergencies

States who wish to go beyond this time limit may do so until viability, and maternal health must always be a relevant factor. However, this federal model is the minimum standard.

Most pro-choice people would compromise on less than that, but sure. Also, no one who believes abortion is murder will ever come close to that. That's why an "abortion compromise" is not even possible.

Casey essentially modified Roe v. Wade into being that compromise, yet that still wasn't enough.  They think so simplistically and reactionary that the only thing that will satisfy them and make them feel validated about reality is an outright national ban. That's next, should it even be possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1541083323614773251?s=20&t=ZuLFSGcHd9...

note the date range. That doesn't include any day after the decision was handed down.

Fair but a lot of the surprise of Roe being overturned went away when the Leak happened and it still didnt poll that high .

It's going to go even higher now that the reality of abortion bans is actually here. This is no longer a hypothetical, this is having real world, tangible consequences that are going to change people's lives in drastic ways. Government often seems like some far-off thing that doesn't directly affect people, but this is a subject where that is decidedly not the case.

At the very least it may inspire greater Democratic turnout which was once looking pretty unenthused. Democrats are pissed, and I am glad to see it. I was worried that the May leak would have blunted that passion, but it doesn't seem like it, especially when people are going to see firsthand what strict abortion bans and the criminalizing of those pursuing or assisting in them will look like. Two generations have not existed without Roe v. Wade as the law of the land, and there is a lot of uncertainty now what the country will look like. But it will definitely look different, and worse. And hopefully the average voter who might not care will take notice. I doubt the backlash to Dobbs will be enough to defy the national environment, which will indeed be based mostly on gas prices/inflation and where much damage has already been irreparably done. But if by some miracle, those two things are resolved somewhat before election day, issues like this and guns may very well become more prioritized and put the GOP in an awkward position, especially for statewide elections. I can only hope for that to happen, because it's what the party deserves over flouting consequences like they always do.

wElL AcTuAlLy gAs pRiCeS ArE MoRe iMpOrTaNt tHaN YoUr rIgHtS is a hell of a pickup line.

The issue of inflation is more important than the issue of abortion

But voting for Republicans over inflation is merely a protest vote - they have no plan to fix it and can’t, anyway - while voting for Republicans or Democrats over abortion has a direct line to policy.

To elaborate on what Cashew, above, just said: this is what is so maddening about how Americans think. The average voter always seems to be under the impression that the President and their party can flip a switch on economic issues that can lower inflation and bring gas prices back down to $2.00 a gallon, or something, but aren't for whatever reason. And somehow voting for the opposite party will cause the reverse.

That's for better and worse, by the way, I can't blame the GOP for running on those issues, as Democrats would too if a Republican was President-it's politics. But the reality is that economic issues are complicated and there is a lot, beyond the control of most politicians, that influence them. Gas prices and inflation will return to a normal, stable state at some point.

A major human rights issue meanwhile, like abortion, is going to actually require having the right people in office to do whatever they can in their capacity to maintain or expand it as a right, or otherwise ban it. As you said, there is an actual through-line there. I really wish more Americans would realize that. If they don't, as I fear, then apathy is going to keep us in the dark place we our society is hurtling into. It's up to the people who do give a crap to get active in any way possible to take the bull by the horns on this fight.

 I've seen a lot recently about how "please just f***ing vote" is being seen as the Democratic equivalency to "thoughts and prayers," and people are getting sick of it. I get it. But proactively voting as often as possible for candidates that they believed reflected their goals is what granted the right this victory, even if it took fifty years. And to undo that, in hopefully less than fifty years, everybody possible who actually cares has to do the same. The system we have is indeed deeply flawed, and evidently always has been, but we still have to work with it, unfortunately, if we do want it to change. We can't look back at previous elections anymore and query about what would have been the most practical mistake the undo. No more mistakes or missed opportunities. I really want us to be at a point where we, and the politicians who represent us, learned every lesson we need to.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There was zero need for this ruling.  Dangerous and dumb.

Fortunately, this Supreme Court has also recently ruled that it's fine to ignore the Supreme Court.

U.S. Supreme Court rejects its own precedent in death row decision

The Supreme Court held in June 2020 that Texas cannot execute Andrus because he had received unconstitutionally inadequate legal representation at his trial.

But the Texas court ignored the Supreme Court’s ruling – essentially flouting the bedrock judicial principle that lower court judges must abide by the decisions of the highest court in the land, even when they disagree.

But this time, the Supreme Court decided not to intervene, effectively acquiescing to a lower court’s insubordination.

Imagine how stupid things would get if they replaced Kagan or Sotomayor with a Federalist society wunderkind/handmaid.

That's why no matter how bleak things are now in spite of Biden being President, and him (with the party by extension) being tarred-and-feathered with the blame for the post-pandemic economic situation, I would still rather he be President than Trump right now just for the sake of there at least being three liberal Justices secured on the bench. I reject the notion that Democrats' need to lose to win. Trump may very well could have been given the opportunity to replace Breyer and especially Alito or Thomas sooner if he had another four years. Honestly, we're at a point in our politics where all that matters is the Supreme Court now. It has amassed far too much power and influence within our broken system.

This may very well be the last stand against an impending theocratic autocracy, but as rough and small of a resistance as is, it's necessary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've seen a lot recently about how "please just f***ing vote" is being seen as the Democratic equivalency to "thoughts and prayers," and people are getting sick of it. I get it. But proactively voting as often as possible for candidates that they believed reflected their goals is what granted the right this victory, even if it took fifty years.

If Democrats wanted people to vote, why did they shut down OFA as soon as Obama became President (and Obama’s Chief of Staff called those who wanted to revive it “***ing retards”)? Why did they call people voted in the 2020 Democratic primaries “Brownshirts”? Why did they blame the very people who elected Biden for Senate and House defeats in 2020?

Everyone who is pissed off has to pull their weight. Politicians need to be less concerned about donors. Voters need to be less concerned about ideological purity.

Indeed. There is a lot of blame to go around for our current situation, but we can't go back in time or to another universe no matter how much we may want to. We have to do all we can to at least not let things get worse from here on out. The bare minimum of that is never considering voting Republican and in turn electing Democrats instead, no matter what. I don't know how many more lessons can be harshly learned by everything going wrong and that in turn being a motivating factor. That's not how it should be. I don't know how many more ways I can say this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Question: how long until someone (presumably a doctor) gets prosecuted for breaking an abortion ban?

We are headed for a doctor shortage in our country. Prosecuting them and putting them away in prison sure isn't going to go over well with the population, seems to me.

The far-right reactionary Christians Theocrats in this country don't care about real negative consequences, as long as they can develop the hegemony they always wanted to see that vindicates their views,  it's worth it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Question: how long until someone (presumably a doctor) gets prosecuted for breaking an abortion ban?

We are headed for a doctor shortage in our country. Prosecuting them and putting them away in prison sure isn't going to go over well with the population, seems to me.

The far-right reactionary Christians Theocrats in this country don't care about real negative consequences, as long as they can develop the hegemony they always wanted to see that vindicates their views,  it's worth it.

That's why I say there is no compromising with them. In their hearts they want to ban all abortion. Period. And they have been ordained by God to do so. They will stop at nothing, and no compromise will be good enough for them.

I am open to being pleasantly surprised, but I'm not holding my breath.

They are just getting more and more extreme on it too. Does anybody remember during the 2016 primaries that Trump actually had to backpedal when he talked about imprisoning women for abortions due to GOP pressure, and then "moderated"  by instead saying that only the doctors who conduct them should be punished? Yeah, well now we're at the point everybody involved is going to be investigated or punished. And then the next step is banning or heavily restricting contraception. What's after that? Sex only in the proximity of clergy?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don’t abortion bans in every state still include exceptions for the life of the mother? Why wouldn’t that apply here? Childbirth could easily kill a 10 year old, that’s years before anyone should be going through pregnancy just in a biological sense. Insanity.

When both the baby and her mother die they'll just go full Rick Perry, say "oops" and move on. They don't really care that much.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't wait for the usual nutjobs to defend this monstrosity.
https://twitter.com/chipfranklin/status/1542911673094356992

Joke or not, the fact that this is so believable is a really depressing sentiment as to what our country has become.

So Republicans are super cool with forcing a ten year old child to give birth to her rapist's baby, but heaven forbid she be allowed at drag queen story time because that might traumatize her.

Republicans, and American parents by extension, are really in denial about what kids can handle or even what they can do, learn, and stumble upon on their own. My mom works in a middle school and the things she hears out of these kids would make the Marquis De Sade blush. One kid got in trouble for watching porn on his phone during class. It isn't even just the internet. When my ancient ass was in middle school I heard the same kind of perverted stuff out of my peers. It's normal and always has been.

I would laugh in the face of any Republican who thinks they were such a saint when they were elementary or middle school students. I thought the right was supposed to be against the "pussification" of our youth. Kids can take learning that another kid, or their teacher, is gay, trans; or reading a book about something related to the subject.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can't wait for the usual nutjobs to defend this monstrosity.
https://twitter.com/chipfranklin/status/1542911673094356992

Joke or not, the fact that this is so believable is a really depressing sentiment as to what our country has become.

So Republicans are super cool with forcing a ten year old child to give birth to her rapist's baby, but heaven forbid she be allowed at drag queen story time because that might traumatize her.

Republicans, and American parents by extension, are really in denial about what kids can handle or even what they can do, learn, and stumble upon on their own. My mom works in a middle school and the things she hears out of these kids would make the Marquis De Sade blush. One kid got in trouble for watching porn on his phone during class. It isn't even just the internet. When my ancient ass was in middle school I heard the same kind of perverted stuff out of my peers. It's normal and always has been.

I would laugh in the face of any Republican who thinks they were such a saint when they were elementary or middle school students. I thought the right was supposed to be against the "pussification" of our youth. Kids can take learning that another kid, or their teacher, is gay, trans; or reading a book about something related to the subject.

What laws like this do is to simply create more distrust of authority and society in general.

For sure. The real end goal is destroying public schools.

But to parlay this back into the topic of abortion at hand, I think there is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of parents in Republican controlled states when their daughter ends up impregnated, with little recourse now.

Adolescents are going to have sex, you can't stop it, you can only try and get them to do it safely, but that bafflingly is never accepted by the pro-birth crowd. They think that drilling the concept of abstinence into the youth and then covering their ears and closing their eyes to how ineffective it is to think kids aren't going to act on natural impulses is the most practical means of preventing underage pregnancies (and therefore abortions) as well as STD's.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.

And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.

I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.

I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.

To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.

That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.

And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.

I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.

I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.

To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.

That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.

Depends, Voter ID is generally still a popularish position although not massively so. Affirmative action is very unpopular, and gun control is not as popular as the polls say. You certainly dont hold a majority of the country and the only issue is "messaging"

I do think that on some issues Democrats will never win: specifically crime, foreign policy, and immigration. But on more specific issues Democrats do appear largely in line with what Americans purportedly want: certain gun control measures, the minimum wage, voting rights, etc.

And don't get me wrong, referendum expectations still vary state to state. But to me, Kansas, especially with the way its suburbs are trending, is not exactly a place where reproductive freedom is dead-on-arrival in the form of this ballot question.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What is their I.Q. level?

Hopefully they wouldn't be able to tell you, since people who know their own IQs off the tops of their heads are some of the most insufferable pricks in America.

Agreed. IQ is a completely asinine concept on top of that. All it really tells you about somebody is how good they are at taking an IQ test. It has no real meaning or practicality.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A lot of women who don't want to be forcely bred will move to blue states or stay in blue states when they would have otherwise moved. I wonder what this will mean for cultures in pro-choice and anti-choice America for the years to come.

I have been talking about a potential demographic crisis caused by this but no one seems to care or believes me.

I definitely think you're onto something, but at the same time I always question how much of a motivator political or social issues can be for someone to upend their life and move just for that reason. While I wish people would move en masse for reasons of changing the country's political dynamic (a la the idea of taking a million or so Californians from the Bay Area and distributing them across the Dakotas and Wyoming to significantly alter elections there) but people live where they do for a plethora of reasons and moving for political ends might not be worth the means for the average person and what they actually prioritize in their life.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why does it matter if he's an immigrant? He's a child rapist, that's what he should be punished for.

If he wasn't allowed in the country, then it would be one fewer rape. Terrible what permissible immigration policies allow to happen to American children.

Well, the girl would have had to give birth to this guy's baby if she stayed in Ohio. I'm sure that bothers you, right?

Maybe Democrats can spin this into getting hardcore anti-choice states to relent now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Honestly, I will probably vote for and donate to democrats in the fall. I'm not happy with this. I am consistent and steadfast in my belief that America is overpopulated. The fact that republicans want more people in this country is not great. I oppose immigration, but I also oppose a high birthrate.

I've never felt so mixed in reaction to anything as much as this post. Yay?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Holy crap why is this still pinned lol, where's our inflation megathread?

This only matters to the hyperpartisans on this forum

Yes, clearly only hyperpartisans care about one of the landmark Supreme Court decisions in American history.

People heard "it's the economy, stupid" once and immediately declared themselves political savants who think they know better than everyone else because economic issues are the only issues that could possibly matter and "social issues" (read: any issue that predominantly affects anyone other than straight white dudes) are a meaningless distraction.

We should run in economic issues
OK here’s my plan to extend child tax credits, raise the minimum wage, and revitalize our energy infrastructure.
No no not like that

Social issues matter when unreasonable policies are causing people serious problems.

Exactly. And abortion can be related to economics since it could very well impose a financial burden on a woman and family if she is forced to have a child or experience medical problems from bringing them to term.

Not only that but gas prices and inflation will, in one way or another, be resolved on their own at some point. Reproductive rights are in limbo at best for likely a decade or two at least and will require vigilance on the part of politicians and society to mitigate the consequences of no longer having Roe/Casey.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Conservatives: "why do liberals think we hate women?"

Also conservatives:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1550954716913360896

Gaetz likes his women much younger, no surprise here.

And who is he referring to in the first video?

[Progressive Pessimist]

And here's a thought to put out there. What if women stopped having sex and having babies? What if women went on a protest? Where would our society be then? How would men like that?

That's how valuable women are to making this country great. And yet, look at what is happening to them on a physical level. We are treating our valuable female citizens who gave life to everyone reading this, as criminals and stupid morons who can't manage their own health and bodies. What a big cringe.

Interesting, a Lysistrata situation. That would require a pretty big organized effort though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And here's a thought to put out there. What if women stopped having sex and having babies? What if women went on a protest? Where would our society be then? How would men like that?

That's how valuable women are to making this country great. And yet, look at what is happening to them on a physical level. We are treating our valuable female citizens who gave life to everyone reading this, as criminals and stupid morons who can't manage their own health and bodies. What a big cringe.

Interesting, a Lysistrata situation. That would require a pretty big organized effort though.

To a significant degree, isn't that what many social conservatives would want to happen?

Some of them. But how many of these pro-life men are degenerates? Two of the five men responsible for Roe being overturned are known perverts.

*Cough* Scott DesJarlais, Matt Gaetz, Tim Murphy *cough*