SCOTUS overturns Roe megathread (pg 53 - confirmed)

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/MarlenaStell/status/1542527729827995649?t=UdKZWPz9735InuWmH6...

There is a part of me that refuses to believe those stories for some reason. Don't most, if not all states have exceptions for those kinds of things? A stillborn baby seems like probably the 2nd most obvious exception to include other than "risk to the mother's health"; and it's an exception where there is absolutely no argument against it whatsoever

I will not discuss the reality of the case since it's real, but like yikes. That's either some awfully written legislation, some overly cautious (albeit for understandable reasons) doctors or both.

IIRC most state bans dont even consider ectopic/already dead fetus situations to be abortions.

[Former President tack50]

https://twitter.com/MarlenaStell/status/1542527729827995649?t=UdKZWPz9735InuWmH6...

There is a part of me that refuses to believe those stories for some reason. Don't most, if not all states have exceptions for those kinds of things? A stillborn baby seems like probably the 2nd most obvious exception to include other than "risk to the mother's health"; and it's an exception where there is absolutely no argument against it whatsoever

I will not discuss the reality of the case since it's real, but like yikes. That's either some awfully written legislation, some overly cautious (albeit for understandable reasons) doctors or both.

IIRC most state bans dont even consider ectopic/already dead fetus situations to be abortions.

Fair though I believe this particular case is of a fetus that will be born alive, albeit with terrible congenital defects that will just lead to him/her dying within a few weeks or months in excruciating pain

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

If it’s substantially under performs, even if it passes, It would tell us that these sort of laws aren’t really sustainable in states left of Trump+5. If it fails, that would mean that almost every state where abortion can be legal by popular vote, it will pass so long as the writers of the referendum don’t ask for too much.
Although if it does really well, that could mean that eventually vast majority of states will adopt similar measures.

Hmmm... that would make the Roe overturn roughly analogous to the repeal of Prohibition with the 21st Amendment.  IMO that's the closest plausible outcome to a pro-life total victory.  33 years later, the last statewide dry law was repealed and only 9 states have any counties that remain fully dry today. In 5 of the 9 states, it's just a handful of counties.  In this scenario, elective abortion would probably only remain legal in NYC, coastal California, the D.C. area, and parts of New England by the 2050's.

Just a little more tolerated than assisted suicide or prostitution, then. What do you expect?

I think this is the most likely outcome if it isn't settled relatively quickly with a federal 12 or 15 week European style law.  You have to keep in mind that the education systems in states where it is banned or heavily restricted will undoubtedly teach students that it is a barbaric practice.  These states already have higher birthrates than the most pro-choice states  today and this will only be accentuated after the bans have been in effect for multiple years.  I don't think you can have a political issue this directly related to reproduction that's left up to a vote where the explicitly pro-reproduction side doesn't tend to win more of those votes over multiple generations?

So leaving it the the states should structurally favor the pro-life side in the medium-long run, particularly in states with the initiative/referendum.  Maybe not quite that dramatic of a pro-life victory as I originally depicted because the core NE states don't have the initiative/referendum or elected judges so it would be very difficult to get to the final step where it gets heavily restricted or devolves to the counties there. 

If this was kind of true, we would have never gotten to this point in the first place. What’s also interesting is how now even very fertile, poor, or conservative countries are reevaluating their laws….but it’s not like fetal personhood can’t be slowly universalized like gay marriage has been. I think if there are 40+ states or even 35+ states that make abortions illegal then there it would be codified into federal law. At that point, it would make a lot more sense because it would be easy-ish to enforce.

Why not?  It was more or less imposed top-down by educated elites on a supermajority of states.

Personhood is different and implies a whole slew of legal rights for the fetus/restrictions on the mother beyond the simple right to life.  Personhood amendments consistently lose a large percentage of abortion = killing voters even in very conservative states.  This is also why I would hesitate to compare the Kansas "let the legislature regulate" referendum to personhood amendments.  I don't know if it will pass, but I expect it to be closer than the fetal personhood votes in the Dakotas and Mississippi.   

What I am trying to say is that just because a trait is dominant in the reproducing population doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the dominant trait in society. You do have a point about there being a DARE-style War on Abortion in Red States, but it didn’t really work with drugs. It was obvious propaganda back then and it will probably be obvious propaganda now.

By “obvious propaganda”, I meant that you will believe that marijuana or sex will kill you or you will go to jail for it but only until you are old enough to not believe everything you are told.

DARE style programs with abortion. That will be interesting to see. I think I made or try to make a thread about it. The only taker was either a Spanish or Portuguese poster who said that their experience wouldn’t be analogous because it was under a fascist regime.

Hmmm... note that 18 years from now there will be people who are starting to vote but would have been aborted without the state laws in question, assuming they stick.  Abortions are currently about 20% of pregnancies nationwide.  If that gets cut even by 25%, that's several percent of the 2040 electorate that wouldn't have been there but for state level abortion restrictions.  Do they reasonably know who they are?  If they do and they aren't terribly, terribly depressed about their lives (even non-elite ancient people living on like $1K/year in today's money generally didn't wish they had never been born), they have the makings of a single issue pro-life block vote.  That is also how it could start to detach from partisan politics. These people would automatically vote pro-life in a referendum, but back D or R candidates based on the new political issues of 2040.     

[Former President tack50]

What I am trying to say is that just because a trait is dominant in the reproducing population doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the dominant trait in society. You do have a point about there being a DARE-style War on Abortion in Red States, but it didn’t really work with drugs. It was obvious propaganda back then and it will probably be obvious propaganda now.

By “obvious propaganda”, I meant that you will believe that marijuana or sex will kill you or you will go to jail for it but only until you are old enough to not believe everything you are told.

DARE style programs with abortion. That will be interesting to see. I think I made or try to make a thread about it. The only taker was either a Spanish or Portuguese poster who said that their experience wouldn’t be analogous because it was under a fascist regime.

That is probably me, but despite all the propaganda from our fascist dictatorship (including pro-natalist and "traditional gender roles" propaganda) I don't think abortion was a big issue at all.

[Skill and Chance]

Also keep in mind there was a very significant element of Protestant vs.Catholic identity politics to abortion when Roe was decided that feels very foreign to us today.  However, this does explain why Biden (NE Catholic born in the 1940's who grew up working class) and Trump (born in the 1940's and grew up in an NYC Protestant elite family) only switched sides on this issue very recently.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

If it’s substantially under performs, even if it passes, It would tell us that these sort of laws aren’t really sustainable in states left of Trump+5. If it fails, that would mean that almost every state where abortion can be legal by popular vote, it will pass so long as the writers of the referendum don’t ask for too much.
Although if it does really well, that could mean that eventually vast majority of states will adopt similar measures.

Hmmm... that would make the Roe overturn roughly analogous to the repeal of Prohibition with the 21st Amendment.  IMO that's the closest plausible outcome to a pro-life total victory.  33 years later, the last statewide dry law was repealed and only 9 states have any counties that remain fully dry today. In 5 of the 9 states, it's just a handful of counties.  In this scenario, elective abortion would probably only remain legal in NYC, coastal California, the D.C. area, and parts of New England by the 2050's.

Just a little more tolerated than assisted suicide or prostitution, then. What do you expect?

I think this is the most likely outcome if it isn't settled relatively quickly with a federal 12 or 15 week European style law.  You have to keep in mind that the education systems in states where it is banned or heavily restricted will undoubtedly teach students that it is a barbaric practice.  These states already have higher birthrates than the most pro-choice states  today and this will only be accentuated after the bans have been in effect for multiple years.  I don't think you can have a political issue this directly related to reproduction that's left up to a vote where the explicitly pro-reproduction side doesn't tend to win more of those votes over multiple generations?

So leaving it the the states should structurally favor the pro-life side in the medium-long run, particularly in states with the initiative/referendum.  Maybe not quite that dramatic of a pro-life victory as I originally depicted because the core NE states don't have the initiative/referendum or elected judges so it would be very difficult to get to the final step where it gets heavily restricted or devolves to the counties there. 

If this was kind of true, we would have never gotten to this point in the first place. What’s also interesting is how now even very fertile, poor, or conservative countries are reevaluating their laws….but it’s not like fetal personhood can’t be slowly universalized like gay marriage has been. I think if there are 40+ states or even 35+ states that make abortions illegal then there it would be codified into federal law. At that point, it would make a lot more sense because it would be easy-ish to enforce.

Why not?  It was more or less imposed top-down by educated elites on a supermajority of states.

Personhood is different and implies a whole slew of legal rights for the fetus/restrictions on the mother beyond the simple right to life.  Personhood amendments consistently lose a large percentage of abortion = killing voters even in very conservative states.  This is also why I would hesitate to compare the Kansas "let the legislature regulate" referendum to personhood amendments.  I don't know if it will pass, but I expect it to be closer than the fetal personhood votes in the Dakotas and Mississippi.   

What I am trying to say is that just because a trait is dominant in the reproducing population doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the dominant trait in society. You do have a point about there being a DARE-style War on Abortion in Red States, but it didn’t really work with drugs. It was obvious propaganda back then and it will probably be obvious propaganda now.

By “obvious propaganda”, I meant that you will believe that marijuana or sex will kill you or you will go to jail for it but only until you are old enough to not believe everything you are told.

DARE style programs with abortion. That will be interesting to see. I think I made or try to make a thread about it. The only taker was either a Spanish or Portuguese poster who said that their experience wouldn’t be analogous because it was under a fascist regime.

Hmmm... note that 18 years from now there will be people who are starting to vote but would have been aborted without the state laws in question, assuming they stick.  Abortions are currently about 20% of pregnancies nationwide.  If that gets cut even by 25%, that's several percent of the 2040 electorate that wouldn't have been there but for state level abortion restrictions.  Do they reasonably know who they are?  If they do and they aren't terribly, terribly depressed about their lives (even non-elite ancient people living on like $1K/year in today's money generally didn't wish they had never been born), they have the makings of a single issue pro-life block vote.  That is also how it could start to detach from partisan politics. These people would automatically vote pro-life in a referendum, but back D or R candidates based on the new political issues of 2040.     

That didn’t work for Ceausescu. Most people don’t think that abstractly.

[Person Man]

What I am trying to say is that just because a trait is dominant in the reproducing population doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the dominant trait in society. You do have a point about there being a DARE-style War on Abortion in Red States, but it didn’t really work with drugs. It was obvious propaganda back then and it will probably be obvious propaganda now.

By “obvious propaganda”, I meant that you will believe that marijuana or sex will kill you or you will go to jail for it but only until you are old enough to not believe everything you are told.

DARE style programs with abortion. That will be interesting to see. I think I made or try to make a thread about it. The only taker was either a Spanish or Portuguese poster who said that their experience wouldn’t be analogous because it was under a fascist regime.

That is probably me, but despite all the propaganda from our fascist dictatorship (including pro-natalist and "traditional gender roles" propaganda) I don't think abortion was a big issue at all.

I thought it was. Generally, I shy away from pointing people out anymore.

So I’m guessing they taught kids in school to go be moms and stuff like that.

[Former President tack50]

What I am trying to say is that just because a trait is dominant in the reproducing population doesn’t necessarily mean it will become the dominant trait in society. You do have a point about there being a DARE-style War on Abortion in Red States, but it didn’t really work with drugs. It was obvious propaganda back then and it will probably be obvious propaganda now.

By “obvious propaganda”, I meant that you will believe that marijuana or sex will kill you or you will go to jail for it but only until you are old enough to not believe everything you are told.

DARE style programs with abortion. That will be interesting to see. I think I made or try to make a thread about it. The only taker was either a Spanish or Portuguese poster who said that their experience wouldn’t be analogous because it was under a fascist regime.

That is probably me, but despite all the propaganda from our fascist dictatorship (including pro-natalist and "traditional gender roles" propaganda) I don't think abortion was a big issue at all.

I thought it was. Generally, I shy away from pointing people out anymore.

So I’m guessing they taught kids in school to go be moms and stuff like that.

Yeah pretty much. Very strict gender roles and what not, as well as legal discrimination against women (ie, "women can't open a bank account or work without permission from their husband or father" and what not). Along the usual propaganda and hardline Catholicism. But abortion played at best an extremely secondary role. Remember the dictatorship fell in 1975, so even in the US abortion had only been legalized at the very end of that.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/MarlenaStell/status/1542527729827995649?t=UdKZWPz9735InuWmH6...

There is a part of me that refuses to believe those stories for some reason. Don't most, if not all states have exceptions for those kinds of things? A stillborn baby seems like probably the 2nd most obvious exception to include other than "risk to the mother's health"; and it's an exception where there is absolutely no argument against it whatsoever

I will not discuss the reality of the case since it's real, but like yikes. That's either some awfully written legislation, some overly cautious (albeit for understandable reasons) doctors or both.

Often even if a procedure is theoretically not illegal, not every provider is willing and able to perform it, whether that's due to personal moral objections or fear of extra legal scrutiny/investigation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.

And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.

I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.

I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.

To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.

That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.

And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.

I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.

I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.

To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.

That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.

Depends, Voter ID is generally still a popularish position although not massively so. Affirmative action is very unpopular, and gun control is not as popular as the polls say. You certainly dont hold a majority of the country and the only issue is "messaging"

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/leotomalley/status/1544034424429461505?s=21&t=5MFl0eYMut...

I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.

I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.

Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there  .

IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.

It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.

And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.

I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.

I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.

To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.

That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.

Depends, Voter ID is generally still a popularish position although not massively so. Affirmative action is very unpopular, and gun control is not as popular as the polls say. You certainly dont hold a majority of the country and the only issue is "messaging"

I do think that on some issues Democrats will never win: specifically crime, foreign policy, and immigration. But on more specific issues Democrats do appear largely in line with what Americans purportedly want: certain gun control measures, the minimum wage, voting rights, etc.

And don't get me wrong, referendum expectations still vary state to state. But to me, Kansas, especially with the way its suburbs are trending, is not exactly a place where reproductive freedom is dead-on-arrival in the form of this ballot question.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over for the Rs we don't know about the H but Tim Ryan is leading by nine pts that was the Rs ace in the hole as a stopgap in the S now that's gone, if Ryan wins that's 53 Senators we are winning the Senate without WI and PA and GA and AZ and notwithstanding a red wave the D's can keep the H, there hasn't been a single good poll for Rs since Roe, Rs clearly benefitted in 2000/2004/2016 when Bush W and Trump won when Ginsberg held the swing seat on Roe now that's insurance is GONE


It's not over until our candidates are declared Senators but if we can win OH why not MO or IA Demings and BEASLEY we know are or even OK with Horn electable  or Charles Booker in Kentucky

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

https://twitter.com/MarlenaStell/status/1542527729827995649?t=UdKZWPz9735InuWmH6...

There is a part of me that refuses to believe those stories for some reason. Don't most, if not all states have exceptions for those kinds of things? A stillborn baby seems like probably the 2nd most obvious exception to include other than "risk to the mother's health"; and it's an exception where there is absolutely no argument against it whatsoever

I will not discuss the reality of the case since it's real, but like yikes. That's either some awfully written legislation, some overly cautious (albeit for understandable reasons) doctors or both.

IIRC most state bans dont even consider ectopic/already dead fetus situations to be abortions.

From what I understand, life of the mother is the only exception for most states with total abortion bans. In Tennessee, doctors are worried about having their patients carry ectopic pregnancies to term until the failing pregnancy threatens the mother.

Also, while they make up a small percentage of the abortions, pregnancies where the child is likely to be born with eternal organs compromised and therefore unlikely to survive longer than days if not minutes would legally need to be carried to term regardless.

I watched the video of the Arkansas Attorney General signing the state's trigger ban and she emphasized that life of the mother is the only exception. Ectopic pregnancies weren't mentioned.

I think only one of the total-ban state allows exception for "damage to the fetus."

[Adam Griffin]

Truly amazing to watch all the fundies twist themselves into knots trying to explain how conception and life are completely connected, and that ending a pregnancy is murder.

After all, mass studies of hormonal levels and chemicals in women of child-bearing age shows that 40% of conceptions end in miscarriage, and the vast, vast majority of those happen prior to 8 weeks - before a woman even knows she's pregnant. "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you" - and yet God snuffed out that life before any living being or doctor was aware of your existence. No "tests, trials or tribulations" to be had or learned from in this case.

If you believe life begins at conception, then you must also reconcile the scientific reality that God murders fully over one-third of the human race before anybody is even aware of their existence for reasons unknown (Blood sacrifice? Maybe that's how he remains omnipotent! #Adrenochrome #Groomer). Apparently only God gets to slaughter babies!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The chances of Rs flipping both chambers with Ryan leading is 0% but their chance of flipping the H is 50/50 but clearly the Roe and Insurrectionists Commission has hurt Rs chances and the Commission has done it's job, we don't necessarily need both chambers we can win the H back our job is to rack up as many Senate seats as possible and Gov races, if it's 230 or less 12 seats is nothing to win back in 24, but we need  more than 52 Senate seats possible NC and FL and IA flips OH and LA are strong, so we can keep the heat on Rs in 24

Our Senate and Gov candidates are always stronger than our H candidate that's why we kept the S with Speaker Boehner 2007/2015 but it won't be 8 yrs for an R majority Rs will never again get 241 Seats  again not right now at least 230 or less


Although, if the Rs win Speakership in 2022 they will be bragging, number 1 there is a Filibuster in the Senate, number 2 Biden has a veto and number 3 Speaker can't do anything pass a budget without the Senate and D's are likely to hold 52 Seats at least until 25 when Biden is on the ballot

Trump is bragging now about Rs inevitability about winning the H but 11 seats or less is nothing to win back since D's will be holding the S in 23

[Ferguson97]

Truly amazing to watch all the fundies twist themselves into knots trying to explain how conception and life are completely connected, and that ending a pregnancy is murder.

After all, mass studies of hormonal levels and chemicals in women of child-bearing age shows that 40% of conceptions end in miscarriage, and the vast, vast majority of those happen prior to 8 weeks - before a woman even knows she's pregnant. "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you" - and yet God snuffed out that life before any living being or doctor was aware of your existence. No "tests, trials or tribulations" to be had or learned from in this case.

If you believe life begins at conception, then you must also reconcile the scientific reality that God murders fully over one-third of the human race before anybody is even aware of their existence for reasons unknown (Blood sacrifice? Maybe that's how he remains omnipotent! #Adrenochrome #Groomer). Apparently only God gets to slaughter babies!

Yeah it's a really bizarre cognitive dissonance. If pregnancy is a 'gift from god' then is a miscarriage a punishment?

[Adam Griffin]

Truly amazing to watch all the fundies twist themselves into knots trying to explain how conception and life are completely connected, and that ending a pregnancy is murder.

After all, mass studies of hormonal levels and chemicals in women of child-bearing age shows that 40% of conceptions end in miscarriage, and the vast, vast majority of those happen prior to 8 weeks - before a woman even knows she's pregnant. "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you" - and yet God snuffed out that life before any living being or doctor was aware of your existence. No "tests, trials or tribulations" to be had or learned from in this case.

If you believe life begins at conception, then you must also reconcile the scientific reality that God murders fully over one-third of the human race before anybody is even aware of their existence for reasons unknown (Blood sacrifice? Maybe that's how he remains omnipotent! #Adrenochrome #Groomer). Apparently only God gets to slaughter babies!

Yeah it's a really bizarre cognitive dissonance. If pregnancy is a 'gift from god' then is a miscarriage a punishment?

Really hard to define something as a punishment when the majority of people affected never even know they've been punished. No lesson to learn from or tribulation to overcome, etc. Blood sacrifice or rich, uptight men making the whole thing up are the two most logical explanations.

[Person Man]

Truly amazing to watch all the fundies twist themselves into knots trying to explain how conception and life are completely connected, and that ending a pregnancy is murder.

After all, mass studies of hormonal levels and chemicals in women of child-bearing age shows that 40% of conceptions end in miscarriage, and the vast, vast majority of those happen prior to 8 weeks - before a woman even knows she's pregnant. "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you" - and yet God snuffed out that life before any living being or doctor was aware of your existence. No "tests, trials or tribulations" to be had or learned from in this case.

If you believe life begins at conception, then you must also reconcile the scientific reality that God murders fully over one-third of the human race before anybody is even aware of their existence for reasons unknown (Blood sacrifice? Maybe that's how he remains omnipotent! #Adrenochrome #Groomer). Apparently only God gets to slaughter babies!

Yeah it's a really bizarre cognitive dissonance. If pregnancy is a 'gift from god' then is a miscarriage a punishment?

Really hard to define something as a punishment when the majority of people affected never even know they've been punished. No lesson to learn from or tribulation to overcome, etc. Blood sacrifice or rich, uptight men making the whole thing up are the two most logical explanations.

The same reason that this is happening is fundamentally the same reason why Russia is attacking  Ukraine.

[afleitch]

Truly amazing to watch all the fundies twist themselves into knots trying to explain how conception and life are completely connected, and that ending a pregnancy is murder.

After all, mass studies of hormonal levels and chemicals in women of child-bearing age shows that 40% of conceptions end in miscarriage, and the vast, vast majority of those happen prior to 8 weeks - before a woman even knows she's pregnant. "Before I formed you in the womb I knew you" - and yet God snuffed out that life before any living being or doctor was aware of your existence. No "tests, trials or tribulations" to be had or learned from in this case.

If you believe life begins at conception, then you must also reconcile the scientific reality that God murders fully over one-third of the human race before anybody is even aware of their existence for reasons unknown (Blood sacrifice? Maybe that's how he remains omnipotent! #Adrenochrome #Groomer). Apparently only God gets to slaughter babies!

If 'life and death and killing and saving' and all other constructed ethics around that are transported into the womb as part of some theological or policy battle, then yes, you can essentially argue that the womb is a place of danger and death and loss as much as it is a cradle of life. And you must have a f-cked up view of women if that's what you debase their bodies to even if it's unintentional.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KristinLyerly/status/1545045142603571205?s=20&t=VKrLL0qz...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/KristinLyerly/status/1545045142603571205?s=20&t=VKrLL0qz...

I’d just do it and dare them to make me a martyr. The GoFundMe page set up for me would provide enough for me to retire if I was banned from working forever. Yeah maybe I am talking sh**t. I’m talking sh**t. Someone eventually has to do this. That much I can tell you. Hell, I imagine the Netherlands, Canada, or Finland would provide you with asylum if you are facing down “some years”. That America has become a source of refugees would be humiliating to these red state governors. There’s nothing that says “you’re a poor country” more than that!

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/KristinLyerly/status/1545045142603571205?s=20&t=VKrLL0qz...

I’d just do it and dare them to make me a martyr. The GoFundMe page set up for me would provide enough for me to retire if I was banned from working forever. Yeah maybe I am talking sh**t. I’m talking sh**t. Someone eventually has to do this. That much I can tell you. Hell, I imagine the Netherlands, Canada, or Finland would provide you with asylum if you are facing down “some years”. That America has become a source of refugees would be humiliating to these red state governors. There’s nothing that says “you’re a poor country” more than that!

Those millions aren't going to do her any good if she's arrested and sent to prison. And she certainly wouldn't be allowed to leave the country or even post bail most likely.

Best case scenario she gets a jury to nullify, but that's a dicey proposition.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/KristinLyerly/status/1545045142603571205?s=20&t=VKrLL0qz...

I’d just do it and dare them to make me a martyr. The GoFundMe page set up for me would provide enough for me to retire if I was banned from working forever. Yeah maybe I am talking sh**t. I’m talking sh**t. Someone eventually has to do this. That much I can tell you. Hell, I imagine the Netherlands, Canada, or Finland would provide you with asylum if you are facing down “some years”. That America has become a source of refugees would be humiliating to these red state governors. There’s nothing that says “you’re a poor country” more than that!

Those millions aren't going to do her any good if she's arrested and sent to prison. And she certainly wouldn't be allowed to leave the country or even post bail most likely.

Best case scenario she gets a jury to nullify, but that's a dicey proposition.

Do you think someone will take their chances? She would have to be denied bail in order to not be able to seek asylum or you could it, not tell anyone, and then seek asylum.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/KristinLyerly/status/1545045142603571205?s=20&t=VKrLL0qz...

I’d just do it and dare them to make me a martyr. The GoFundMe page set up for me would provide enough for me to retire if I was banned from working forever. Yeah maybe I am talking sh**t. I’m talking sh**t. Someone eventually has to do this. That much I can tell you. Hell, I imagine the Netherlands, Canada, or Finland would provide you with asylum if you are facing down “some years”. That America has become a source of refugees would be humiliating to these red state governors. There’s nothing that says “you’re a poor country” more than that!

Those millions aren't going to do her any good if she's arrested and sent to prison. And she certainly wouldn't be allowed to leave the country or even post bail most likely.

Best case scenario she gets a jury to nullify, but that's a dicey proposition.

Do you think someone will take their chances? She would have to be denied bail in order to not be able to seek asylum or you could it, not tell anyone, and then seek asylum.

Yes, someone will probably try because these sad cases are a lot more common than people realize.

But you just know that every conservative prosecutor in the no abortion states is frothing at the mouth at the idea of holding the first trial of an abortion doctor and locking that person up for decades (or life), so I can see the reluctance of a doctor to throw their life away. There definitely won't be any bail given, since they could just go to a blue state and get "asylum."

I guess eventually their state would elect a pro-choice governor who would pardon (assuming no state actually approves the death penalty for an abortion doctor).