WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

Obviously we know the outcome of all races now. Like when in 1982 Republicans suffering from high inflation lost a bunch of seats, and nothing changed in time for the 1984 election.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

Obviously we know the outcome of all races now. Like when in 1982 Republicans suffering from high inflation lost a bunch of seats, and nothing changed in time for the 1984 election.

So you're saying that Manchin, Tester, and Brown can overcome the partisanship of 2024 with Trump or DeSantis at the top of the ticket? I literally didn't say the other senators were doomed nor did I say Trump or DeSantis would beat Biden, I just said those three will have to overcome intense partisanship in a Presidential Election Year in a year that could be unfavorable for them in their states compared to their prior elections. I don't know if it's a fact the three win or lose, I said I think that's how it is two years out. That can change in the next two years and I will say if my thoughts change.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

Obviously we know the outcome of all races now. Like when in 1982 Republicans suffering from high inflation lost a bunch of seats, and nothing changed in time for the 1984 election.

So you're saying that Manchin, Tester, and Brown can overcome the partisanship of 2024 with Trump or DeSantis at the top of the ticket? I literally didn't say the other senators were doomed nor did I say Trump or DeSantis would beat Biden, I just said those three will have to overcome intense partisanship in a Presidential Election Year in a year that could be unfavorable for them in their states compared to their prior elections. I don't know if it's a fact the three win or lose, I said I think that's how it is two years out. That can change in the next two years and I will say if my thoughts change.

Not Manchin lol or probably Tester for that matter but Brown could win. Trump only won by 8% and if you look at 2018 the coalition is there. If Trump only wins by like 5% and the GOP nominates a complete lunatic then it could happen.

[Gracile]

Manchin was overestimated in quite a few 2018 pre-election polls. And even if he does still have some crossover appeal among West Virginia Republicans, that hardly translates into real votes.

Honestly, it's hard for me to see how anyone can justify him being favored in this race when even slight changes in the fundamentals (not a D+9 election year, having higher turnout due to the presidential race) will doom him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin was overestimated in quite a few 2018 pre-election polls. And even if he does still have some crossover appeal among West Virginia Republicans, that hardly translates into real votes.

Honestly, it's hard for me to see how anyone can justify him being favored in this race when even slight changes in the fundamentals (not a D+9 election year, having higher turnout due to the presidential race) will doom him.

Lol let the voters speak he is not Doomed and no are we in. 22 until the votes are casted users want to always Preempt a VBM election when the close contests we are gonna find out days later like we did in 20

[Badger]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

Horribly disagree if we're ever going to win the majority back anytime this decade. I'm displeased with him, but let's face it he is a hundred times better than any Trump cultist pack who would otherwise win. It's West freaking Virginia.

I suspect he will lose by somewhere close to double digits, but God bless him if he can at least make it erase requiring Republicans to put resources into, or possibly even pull off a minor miracle and win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are many people hurting in this Environment and Rs aren't gonna do nothing but cut they're not gonna give out stimulus checks like during Trump

I'd we narrowly lose the H but 8/10 seats we will get it back in 24

The Hilarious when Ds quote R talking pts Manchin is gonna lose and it's two yrs out

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

Horribly disagree if we're ever going to win the majority back anytime this decade. I'm displeased with him, but let's face it he is a hundred times better than any Trump cultist pack who would otherwise win. It's West freaking Virginia.

I suspect he will lose by somewhere close to double digits, but God bless him if he can at least make it erase requiring Republicans to put resources into, or possibly even pull off a minor miracle and win.

Having a “majority” b/c of Manchin simply means a deluge of disappointments and Dems in Disarray narratives.  We’re better off being down by one seat w/o Manchin and running against an obstructionist Republican Senate than we are having our majority come entirely from a DINO like Sinema, Manchin, or Zell Miller and looking to voters like incompetent clowns who can’t pass anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin was gonna sign onto Voting Rights it was only Sinema who went to AZ with Cornyn and said she was set against removing the Filibuster that means if we won ME, whom Collins won because of Tara Reade scandal broke before the Election we would have Voting Rights, White women particular in ME was offended by Reade,, when Collins upset Gideon I knew it was Bidens Fault that's why I supported Booker, Harris or Bernie

Reverend Barber went to AZ many times to stage protest against Sinema and she still was against Voting Rights

That's why Sinema not Manchin is being primaries Gallego

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/KristenhCNN/status/1524200264017797121?t=VxjbhbPjxB7PlhzpGl0...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout is always higher in Prez elections and WVA MT and OH solit their votes for Prez and S in 2012 and Manchin won in 2012 and Tester with Obama and Biden in the Ballot when Romney easily win WVA and MT

We have to see how we do in red states in 22 we have won red states like KY and KS outside of FL, TX

Ryan and Franken and whomever is nominated in MO aren't gonna go down easy especially Vance who is unknown and never ran for office

That's why I have OH as number 2 pickup after PA

[Xing]

Manchin is going to get Blanchin'd.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Manchin is going to get Blanchin'd.

I think we'll have a new term, Manchin'd, that'll describe what'll happen.

[Gracile]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Manchin is actually running again I just don't see any way he wins re-election. He would've lost if he was up in 2020 and it's only gotten worse for Democrats in the state as far as their down-ballot strength.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

It was from Morning Consult. Take them with a grain of salt, especially when looking at Red State dems.

[Gracile]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

It was from Morning Consult. Take them with a grain of salt, especially when looking at Red State dems.

I know, and I don't trust Morning Consult. My post was more complaining about certain people who think Manchin can "do it again" because of these numbers.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Hard to take the numbers in the OP seriously after last night's WV-02 result. Manchin is doomed.

It was from Morning Consult. Take them with a grain of salt, especially when looking at Red State dems.

I know, and I don't trust Morning Consult. My post was more complaining about certain people who think Manchin can "do it again" because of these numbers.

Specficially OP.

[MT Treasurer]

FYI (esp. gracile/New Tennessean Politician), I don’t actually think Manchin is favored to win in 2024, I’m just hesitant to declare any red state Democrat who has demonstrably cultivated such a strong brand as Manchin DOA (and I’m treating other races such as MT-SEN 2024 and [albeit to a far lesser extent] OH-SEN 2024 with the same caution, so it’s not even about Manchin per se but red state voters and asymmetric polarization in general). Red states usually don’t vote out Democratic incumbents whom they genuinely trust and (foolishly) believe to represent their values, which is why it requires particular skill/effort to deconstruct those Democratic candidates' (Daschle, Bayh, Heitkamp, Landrieu, etc.) brands. Obviously Manchin doesn’t have an actual ideology besides skilled performance art and lies (as any serious observer/insider will confirm to you - we’ve covered this topic extensively), but given that politics is basically just a game and every win another ego boost for people like him, it’s no surprise that he’s desperate to run again in 2024. If you’ve been as successful in manipulating public perception of your persona as Manchin has been in the past (and still is), you live in a bubble which is nearly impossible to escape and believe there are no limits to how far your act can get you. The man is basically a narcissist who is so self-enamored that he thinks his playbook is going to work every single time, which is why it would be all the more satisfying to finally see him go down to defeat. Now yes, it probably won’t work again in 2024, but there’s nothing wrong with erring on the side of caution, esp. 2 1/2 years before the actual election and Manchin doing extremely well in early polling (not just Morning Consult [which I agree is generally trash], but also the Triton Research survey from January, where he was leading Mooney 49-28). Manchin won in 2018 for a myriad of reasons, but one of them was the fact that he defined himself (and his opponent) way before Republicans did, and that seems to be happening again, esp. with his (purely projected) role as a kingmaker in a 50/50 Senate and attendant (extremely beneficial) media coverage. In my view, the GOP should have already run ads predicting his (inevitable) betrayal of trust with his vote for KBJ, but they didn’t do that (instead they continue to hold him up as a 'good' Democrat). Now he’s - again - going to go full MAGA after Republicans take the Senate and he’s no longer the deciding vote, which will make it far more difficult to run against him than while he’s a Democratic vote in a 50/50 Senate.

The point isn’t necessarily that Mooney will lose to Manchin, but that it will actually require some effort on the part of the GOP to beat him soundly, which is why I’m glad that Steve Daines will be picked as NRSC chairman for that cycle. If Mooney is smart, he’ll just let Daines whisper strategy/messaging into his ear. His campaign against Bullock could serve as a road map for virtually any red state Senate/House race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FYI (esp. gracile/New Tennessean Politician), I don’t actually think Manchin is favored to win in 2024, I’m just hesitant to declare any red state Democrat who has demonstrably cultivated such a strong brand as Manchin DOA (and I’m treating other races such as MT-SEN 2024 and [albeit to a far lesser extent] OH-SEN 2024 with the same caution, so it’s not even about Manchin per se but red state voters and asymmetric polarization in general). Red states usually don’t vote out Democratic incumbents whom they genuinely trust and (foolishly) believe to represent their values, which is why it requires particular skill/effort to deconstruct those Democratic candidates' (Daschle, Bayh, Heitkamp, Landrieu, etc.) brands. Obviously Manchin doesn’t have an actual ideology besides skilled performance art and lies (as any serious observer/insider will confirm to you - we’ve covered this topic extensively), but given that politics is basically just a game and every win another ego boost for people like him, it’s no surprise that he’s desperate to run again in 2024. If you’ve been as successful in manipulating public perception of your persona as Manchin has been in the past (and still is), you live in a bubble which is nearly impossible to escape and believe there are no limits to how far your act can get you. The man is basically a narcissist who is so self-enamored that he thinks his playbook is going to work every single time, which is why it would be all the more satisfying to finally see him go down to defeat. Now yes, it probably won’t work again in 2024, but there’s nothing wrong with erring on the side of caution, esp. 2 1/2 years before the actual election and Manchin doing extremely well in early polling (not just Morning Consult [which I agree is generally trash], but also the Triton Research survey from January, where he was leading Mooney 49-28). Manchin won in 2018 for a myriad of reasons, but one of them was the fact that he defined himself (and his opponent) way before Republicans did, and that seems to be happening again, esp. with his (purely projected) role as a kingmaker in a 50/50 Senate and attendant (extremely beneficial) media coverage. In my view, the GOP should have already run ads predicting his (inevitable) betrayal of trust with his vote for KBJ, but they didn’t do that (instead they continue to hold him up as a 'good' Democrat). Now he’s - again - going to go full MAGA after Republicans take the Senate and he’s no longer the deciding vote, which will make it far more difficult to run against him than while he’s a Democratic vote in a 50/50 Senate.

The point isn’t necessarily that Mooney will lose to Manchin, but that it will actually require some effort on the part of the GOP to beat him soundly, which is why I’m glad that Steve Daines will be picked as NRSC chairman for that cycle. If Mooney is smart, he’ll just let Daines whisper strategy/messaging into his ear. His campaign against Bullock could serve as a road map for virtually any red state Senate/House race.

I’d argue Brown has a much stronger personal brand than Tester.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

Horribly disagree if we're ever going to win the majority back anytime this decade. I'm displeased with him, but let's face it he is a hundred times better than any Trump cultist pack who would otherwise win. It's West freaking Virginia.

I suspect he will lose by somewhere close to double digits, but God bless him if he can at least make it erase requiring Republicans to put resources into, or possibly even pull off a minor miracle and win.

Having a “majority” b/c of Manchin simply means a deluge of disappointments and Dems in Disarray narratives.  We’re better off being down by one seat w/o Manchin and running against an obstructionist Republican Senate than we are having our majority come entirely from a DINO like Sinema, Manchin, or Zell Miller and looking to voters like incompetent clowns who can’t pass anything.

You'll say that until you're down that one seat, lol.

[mtvoter]

FYI (esp. gracile/New Tennessean Politician), I don’t actually think Manchin is favored to win in 2024, I’m just hesitant to declare any red state Democrat who has demonstrably cultivated such a strong brand as Manchin DOA (and I’m treating other races such as MT-SEN 2024 and [albeit to a far lesser extent] OH-SEN 2024 with the same caution, so it’s not even about Manchin per se but red state voters and asymmetric polarization in general). Red states usually don’t vote out Democratic incumbents whom they genuinely trust and (foolishly) believe to represent their values, which is why it requires particular skill/effort to deconstruct those Democratic candidates' (Daschle, Bayh, Heitkamp, Landrieu, etc.) brands. Obviously Manchin doesn’t have an actual ideology besides skilled performance art and lies (as any serious observer/insider will confirm to you - we’ve covered this topic extensively), but given that politics is basically just a game and every win another ego boost for people like him, it’s no surprise that he’s desperate to run again in 2024. If you’ve been as successful in manipulating public perception of your persona as Manchin has been in the past (and still is), you live in a bubble which is nearly impossible to escape and believe there are no limits to how far your act can get you. The man is basically a narcissist who is so self-enamored that he thinks his playbook is going to work every single time, which is why it would be all the more satisfying to finally see him go down to defeat. Now yes, it probably won’t work again in 2024, but there’s nothing wrong with erring on the side of caution, esp. 2 1/2 years before the actual election and Manchin doing extremely well in early polling (not just Morning Consult [which I agree is generally trash], but also the Triton Research survey from January, where he was leading Mooney 49-28). Manchin won in 2018 for a myriad of reasons, but one of them was the fact that he defined himself (and his opponent) way before Republicans did, and that seems to be happening again, esp. with his (purely projected) role as a kingmaker in a 50/50 Senate and attendant (extremely beneficial) media coverage. In my view, the GOP should have already run ads predicting his (inevitable) betrayal of trust with his vote for KBJ, but they didn’t do that (instead they continue to hold him up as a 'good' Democrat). Now he’s - again - going to go full MAGA after Republicans take the Senate and he’s no longer the deciding vote, which will make it far more difficult to run against him than while he’s a Democratic vote in a 50/50 Senate.

The point isn’t necessarily that Mooney will lose to Manchin, but that it will actually require some effort on the part of the GOP to beat him soundly, which is why I’m glad that Steve Daines will be picked as NRSC chairman for that cycle. If Mooney is smart, he’ll just let Daines whisper strategy/messaging into his ear. His campaign against Bullock could serve as a road map for virtually any red state Senate/House race.

I’d argue Brown has a much stronger personal brand than Tester.

Disagree. Small state brands are almost always superior to big state “brands”.

Brown outperformed Obama only by 2% in 2012, and that was with a right-leaning indy taking a good chunk of the votes from Mandel.

Tester, in particular, is a unique senator in the fact that a lot of his brand doesn’t come from his rhetoric or positions at all. He’s a real Montanan with missing fingers, a flattop and loves driving tractors and butchering meat.

I predict Brown only overperforms Biden by 1-3 points while both Tester and Manchin outperform Biden by double digits in 2024.

I actually believe Brown’s brand and electoral strength is the most overrated out of the trio by far.

Of course, he’s still a strong incumbent, but Tester’s brand is just too unique and potent in a way only Montanan’s would understand for Brown to match it. Brown talking about his union made suit isn’t enough to tie Titanium Tester.

[2016]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

[Orange is back]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

https://twitter.com/kellyfphares/status/1556298178630225920Manchin has already made it clear that he will run for another term in 2024. And lose.

[2016]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

https://twitter.com/kellyfphares/status/1556298178630225920Manchin has already made it clear that he will run for another term in 2024. And lose.

Manchin is blatantly ignoring some facts that WV 2024 will not be the same State as it was in 2018.

Manchins Vote Share went from 60.57 % in 2012 to 49.47 % in 2018. That is a drop of 11 Percentage Points + he ran against a guy who had a lot of skeletons himself.

Manchin is as disllusional as Claire McCaskill, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly who consistently thought they could fluke themselves back into Congress until they ran out of luck.