WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[MT Treasurer]

Comedy gold

[A]nalysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. Should Manchin not run, analysts believe the seat will be an easy Republican pickup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Comedy gold

[A]nalysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. Should Manchin not run, analysts believe the seat will be an easy Republican pickup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

Even if Manchin would be easy to beat, it still diverts resources to beat him. In 2014 SD, MT, and WV were autoflips due to them being open seats while Arkansas and Louisiana weren't although Rs enjoyed a big advantage.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Comedy gold

[A]nalysts currently consider the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican Party. Should Manchin not run, analysts believe the seat will be an easy Republican pickup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia

Even if Manchin would be easy to beat, it still diverts resources to beat him. In 2014 SD, MT, and WV were autoflips due to them being open seats while Arkansas and Louisiana weren't although Rs enjoyed a big advantage.

Perhaps, but if Justice runs the GOP basically don't have to spend any resources at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Manchin and Tester are WC D means Moderate on Guns like Beshear of course they can win, Beshear is winning numbers until this polling the RS didn't defeat them in 2012/2018 if course it's gonna be tight but Ina 51/47 Eday where we resurrect the 290 blue wall anything is possible and incumbent have more clout Johnson managed to win an upset in WI and Brown has been able to overperform Strickland 2016 and Ryan 22 due to incumbent

Kasich in 2010 was gonna defeat Gov Strickland no matter what due to 10 percent unemployment, incumbent are safe because of 3.5% unemployment that's why Biden will keep the blue wall even in Docugate but lose FL, TX and IA and some split voting in MT,WV, OH, KY and NC

RS despite KY and KS GOV, BROWN MANCHIN AND TESTER WINNING IN 2012/2018 keep coming back and say D's automatic are gonna lose the S no they aren't.

The D's have kept the WH and S and Rs only due to Gerrymandering kept the H, but winning AZ and 2/3 OH, WVA or MT without Sinema except for DC Statehood he is for nixing the Filibuster and Collins is DOA anyways in 26

News flash Laura Kelly won in KS another R 22 state

It's called blk people voting 30/100 M blks and Latinos are in poverty and 20/200 M whites and whom is on Skid Row CA blks and migrant Latino men only

Once Docugate happened there are enough Blks to keep 290 but our chances in wave insurance Prez states not S vanished especially MO and FL Sen when Kunce could of won now he is gonna lose 9/11 pts like Trudy Valentine

[BenjiG98]

Manchin still undecided on running for re-election:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628416583147061249?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

Manchin still undecided on running for re-election:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628416583147061249?s=20

The only thing he has to decide is whether he wants to leave on January 3, 2025 through defeat at the polls or retirement. It's up to you, dude.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin still undecided on running for re-election:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628416583147061249?s=20

The only thing he has to decide is whether he wants to leave on January 3, 2025 through defeat at the polls or retirement. It's up to you, dude.

He is leading Morrissey by 10 but losing to Justice and Trump isn't gonna endorse Justice

That's why I still have him in my signature

Alot of these races are gonna be within 5 pts like WI, PA, AZ, NV and GA was and do is KY, MS Gov if Justice wins it would be 5 not 10 there is a substantial blk population that's not in MT but Tester still leads in Charleston WV

Just like Scott and Cruz aren't winning by 20 it's 5 no IAN and OH and MO S Boswell and Allred can win if it's 5 pts

Even Barbara Lee can win because it's a 3 way that's why I endorsed her 2 yrs is a long time for Eday

Gallego is not giving up a safe H S for nothing he is running to end the Filibuster on Voting Rights otherwise Sinema can win her seats it's a 303 map but it's also a 538 map for H and S not just for Prez

Just like users 2016he forgot Laura Kelly won KS 22 he is too stuck on 303 no it's a 538 map that's why Beshear is winning

[2016]

Manchin still undecided on running for re-election:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628416583147061249?s=20

The only thing he has to decide is whether he wants to leave on January 3, 2025 through defeat at the polls or retirement. It's up to you, dude.

He is leading Morrissey by 10 but losing to Justice and Trump isn't gonna endorse Justice

That's why I still have him in my signature

Alot of these races are gonna be within 5 pts like WI, PA, AZ, NV and GA was and do is KY, MS Gov if Justice wins it would be 5 not 10 there is a substantial blk population that's not in MT but Tester still leads in Charleston WV

Just like Scott and Cruz aren't winning by 20 it's 5 no IAN and OH and MO S Boswell and Allred can win if it's 5 pts

Even Barbara Lee can win because it's a 3 way that's why I endorsed her 2 yrs is a long time for Eday

Gallego is not giving up a safe H S for nothing he is running to end the Filibuster on Voting Rights otherwise Sinema can win her seats it's a 303 map but it's also a 538 map for H and S not just for Prez

Just like users 2016he forgot Laura Kelly won KS 22 he is too stuck on 303 no it's a 538 map that's why Beshear is winning

Again you are not telling the truth my friend.

Governor Jim Justice was endorsed by Donald Trump in 2017. And Justice himself introduced Trump at his Campaign Rally when he switched Parties in July 2017 from Democrat to Republican.

Manchin is a sure GONER if Justice runs which is getting more likely by the Day.

Sir Mohamed is right:
Either Manchin retires or he gets beaten badly by Justice in 2024.

Manchin got only 49 % of the Vote in 2018, his lowest since running for Senate in 2010 when he got 53 % of the Vote.

Manchin is GONE & DONE!

[2016]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

[Ragnaroni]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

[2016]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

The State has changed quite a lot since Manchin ran for Senate in 2018. Last year Republicans passed Democrats for the first Time in the State's History in Voter Registrations.

There ain't too many more Jay Rockefeller, Robert Bryd type of Voters Manchin can peel off.

Question for me is if Governor Jim Justice (who by the way has a nearly 66 % Job Approval in the State) can coax Manchin into an early Retirement Announcement.

This Race feels a little bit like the 2010 North Dakota Senate Race when then Governor John Hoeven continueously threatened a Senate Run and eventually coaxed then Senator Byron Dorgan into Retirement.

[Ragnaroni]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

The State has changed quite a lot since Manchin ran for Senate in 2018. Last year Republicans passed Democrats for the first Time in the State's History in Voter Registrations.

There ain't too many more Jay Rockefeller, Robert Bryd type of Voters Manchin can peel off.

Question for me is if Governor Jim Justice (who by the way has a nearly 66 % Job Approval in the State) can coax Manchin into an early Retirement Announcement.

This Race feels a little bit like the 2010 North Dakota Senate Race when then Governor John Hoeven continueously threatened a Senate Run and eventually coaxed then Senator Byron Dorgan into Retirement.

Well the question is : by how much will Machin lose and agaisnt whom?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS have failed to Defeat a single D incumbent S since 2018 they failed in 22 with GA, AZ and NV they didn't have any in 2020 and Morrissey is losing to Manchin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

The State has changed quite a lot since Manchin ran for Senate in 2018. Last year Republicans passed Democrats for the first Time in the State's History in Voter Registrations.

There ain't too many more Jay Rockefeller, Robert Bryd type of Voters Manchin can peel off.

Question for me is if Governor Jim Justice (who by the way has a nearly 66 % Job Approval in the State) can coax Manchin into an early Retirement Announcement.

This Race feels a little bit like the 2010 North Dakota Senate Race when then Governor John Hoeven continueously threatened a Senate Run and eventually coaxed then Senator Byron Dorgan into Retirement.

Cameron supposed to beat Beshear lol Laura Kelly won in KS 22 a red state and Presley is leading Reeves, Reeves isn't Hailey Barber and Stein is leading Robson it's a 538 map not a 303 I keep telling you and Scott isn't winning by 20 he is winning by 5 and that is plenty for Matt Boswell to come back from it was 50/48 Rubio v Deming's and 50/47 DeSantis v Crist before Ian a 5 pt race

It's 2 yrs from. Eday and Biden is already at 50 all that's needed for an incumbent to get reelected 52/48 v DeSantis and Trump PPP that's not wave insurance but if you win you can win wave insurance

[Holmes]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

Funny enough, Manchin has always performed best during presidential years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 2 yrs til Eday we aren't go..a sweep everything but 300/350 EC votes with 65)60 M Ds is enough to win the Trifecta

Just remember Gallego is rinning to repeal the Filibuster otherwise he would let Sinema neat Lake and she is capable but Gallego what gets lost is running for Repeal of Filibuster while alot of users keep saying it's not a blue wave

RS haven't defeat a single D S inc since 2018 when they win before Pandemic IN, ND, MO and FL

I make a D nut map because it's fun and I am gonna be scoreboard watching anyways all states blue or red with blk population including MIZZ, OH and TX are targeting, NM is a PVI and PA bellwether, OH and MO are still EC College bellwether eventhough OH and MIZZ have lost it it still predicts the winner like PA and  predicted the PVI not the H PVI but overall PVI

Kander came within 3 pts in 2016 I doubt Kunce is gonna be blow out like Valentine in a Prez yr Quintin Lucas might in Gov race but that maybe questionable

[Mr. Smith]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

Funny enough, Manchin has always performed best during presidential years.

But will it suffice this time?

[BenjiG98]

Justice will (likely) announce decision in next 2-3 weeks, wants to wait until after legislative session:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628792145518657539?s=20

[MT Treasurer]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

You know Tester is leading in a red state and RS haven't defeated a single D inc since 2018 they failed last yr AZ, GA and NV and we have yet to see polls in MO, TX and OH, there are no auto flips when you guys are losing in KY and MS Gov and KS Gov 22 all R 22 states and losing in NC

The problem for RS is Trump and insurrection are still being Prosecuted it's not a normal Election cycle with insurrection and RS in the H said they would deal with inflation no R budget they are consuming with Hunter laptop and Trump has been impeached twice already

[2016]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

You know Tester is leading in a red state and RS haven't defeated a single D inc since 2018 they failed last yr AZ, GA and NV and we have yet to see polls in MO, TX and OH, there are no auto flips when you guys are losing in KY and MS Gov and KS Gov 22 all R 22 states and losing in NC

The problem for RS is Trump and insurrection are still being Prosecuted it's not a normal Election cycle with insurrection and RS in the H said they would deal with inflation no R budget they are consuming with Hunter laptop and Trump has been impeached twice already

Republicans ain't going to lose the Mississippi Governorship this fall. Joy Hofmeister was leading Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt for the Majority of the 2022 OK Governor Race and she still ended up losing the Race by Double Digits.

West Virginia is an automatic Senate Flip to Republicans if Governor Justice runs just like Alabama Senate Race was in 2020 between Senator Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville.

Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 Percentage Points in 2016 & 2020. It is near impossible for Manchin to get that much crossover support to win Re-Election.

And Trump won't be the Nominee in 2024. DeSantis will likely win West Virginia by a similar margin to Trump.

And Olowakandi also told us all that McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp would all win Re-Election in 2018 and they didn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 52/48 in a PPP poll not too long ago that's the exact margin that Obama won WV, MT OH, MO, VA, PA by in 2012 but RS had 241 in the H

I am optimistic that Biden can duplicate Obama map but instead of FL going R we can win TX and SC it's two yrs today and there are pending indictments, we aren't going today I am a D not an R and I am not S019 he made an R nut map and he was wrong, Zachary Manning is a splendid candidate that can defeat Cruz not today but in 2 yrs

I am gonna be scoreboard watching anyways and rooting for Ds why make an R nut map and all these States FL, OH, TX, NC, SC, MO all gonna be within 5 pts OH and NC and WI would of went Ds direction if it was 24 not 22 because red state Ds ran away from Biden and in 24 they will he running with Biden

[President Johnson]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

Yeah, the argument is nonsense. Bill Nelson also did better in 2006 than 2000 and 2012 before he went down in 2018. The state and polarization have just changed too much and the timespans we're talking about there are not just one, but multiple lifetimes in politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 52/48 Biden is leading DeSantis and Trump, PPP is the same PVI Obama and Biden won bye in 2012 and we won MT, WV, MO and OH and we are trying to make TX and SC instead of FL and TX battleground states but we underperformed in the H that's why it was a 52/48 PVI RS had 241 Seats if we underperforming in H and win bigger in the S it still can be a 4 pt PVI but 5 seats is nothing to overcome in a Prez Environment

A 53 S and a 222 D H can match a 52/48 PVI whereas a 230 H seats or 240 DH and 53 S would be an 52/45 PVI 2008 scenario

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1631020378951753728