Argentina 2023 election
jman123:
Next year Argentina votes to decide whether Alberto Fernández gets to serve another term or not. There has been some infighting in Alberto's ruling coalition with Cristina Kirchner his VP. There is talk that she may run for president against Alberto Fernández next year. How would that affect the outcome of the election? Javier Millei looks to run for President. Also, possible candidates in the main opposition group Juntos por el Cambio are Patricia Bullrich, Buenos Aires mayor Horacio Larreta and former president Mauricio Macri. How do you see this election play out?
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!:
Ever since the legislative election the same pattern has repeated right up to now:
* The government shoots itself in the foot with infighting about economic policy
* The opposition shoots itself in the foot with infighting about Milei
* Milei holds huge live event in interior city, wins support from someone totally unexpected, hits new polling high
Most recently, the attempts by finance minister Martín Guzmán to control inflation have been attacked constantly by CFK in an apparent attempt to avoid responsibility for the sinking ship that is Frente de Todos. Every day the hardened Peronist core shrinks as inflation and poverty climb. The question isn't whether they lose but whether they lose united or divided, and whether they even seriously try to compete or whether they just pass blame around to mount a comeback in 2027.
The opposition, meanwhile, has yet to think of a strategy to handle Milei. Most recently they made the absolutely boneheaded decision to have a special meeting to write up an official draft rejecting cooperation with Milei (by name!). Considering Milei explicitly rejected joining the coalition from the start it comes off like "you can't fire me, I quit!" which isn't the kind of energy the presumptive winners should be projecting this far out. Even worse, just hours later Patricia Bullrich rejected the letter completely and was meeting with Milei on chummy terms again.
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The problem is that Juntos is of three minds when it comes to Milei. Larreta would rather just ignore Milei and let third parties attack him while empowering ideologically similar candidates like López Murphy and Tetaz to stem the bleeding, which is probably the most practical approach but doesn't work when the rest of the party wants to constantly talk about him. The hawks Bullrich and Macri constantly push to incorporate him, which benefits them but obviously hurts the alliance as a whole. Meanwhile the bulk of the Radicals and the Civic Coalition would rather explicitly attack Milei but so far they haven't found any silver bullet.
The end result is a completely incoherent set of attacks that do nothing except strengthen Milei's claims about the political caste. According to Juntos he's simultaneously a gadfly who can only do well enough to help Kirchner win again and a Bolsonaro-like unstoppable menace to the Republic. His values are the same as those of the opposition, but they're also crazy and have to be actively opposed. He's intransigent and would only hold up legislation but also if he did somehow win then he couldn't get anything done because JxC legislators wouldn't support him. One JxC Senator in what I can only assume was a moment of accidental honesty said Milei joining JxC would be like Messi joining Talleres
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Meanwhile Milei went to Mendoza to give a lecture on dollarization to yet another huge crowd.
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Then just like clockwork a prisoner endorsed Milei, only to be supplanted in absurdity when he won the support of a piquetero
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Finally, the latest polls came out and once again Milei broke new ground. He started by getting his first poll putting him second in a three way race, then mere days later a poll leaked showing him in the lead against Macri and CFK. His ceiling seems to just keep rising, and he's already at the point where the argument that he's just splitting the opposition vote rings pretty hollow.
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He also seems to have the superpower of setting the conversation at will. He raffled his salary and soon politicians from other parties and even a milk company (???) were sucked into a raffle frenzy. He proposed dollarization and had everyone arguing about it when previously it was unthinkable. Then not long after Sergio Agüero coincidentally talked in favour of dollarization
At this point I have a hard time not seeing him as the favourite. Larreta may still be in the lead but ironically the "structure" that Milei lacks is in many ways a hindrance to dealing with him, like a bus with three drivers pulling in opposite directions. I thought Milei might have trouble putting together a party that can run in every province, particularly in the remote areas with low internet penetration. Then it came out that the Libertarian Party is already operational in 14 of 16 departments in Catamarca and that he has support even in rural Formosan native villages and my doubts were put to rest. Of course he could still have the problem of attracting crooks and opportunists, but with how incoherent the alternatives are I doubt attacks on Milei's candidates will hurt him much overall, plus his personalistic campaign makes it easy to remove troublesome affiliates.
Of course I'm very, very biased. Normally I can look at things objectively because I'm comparing crooks with other crooks but for once I definitely have a horse in the race. There are many conservatives out there who call themselves "libertarian" without any consistency but Milei isn't among them. Other than abortion (which is an ambiguous issue anyway) he takes the hardline position on gay marriage, drug legalization and a half dozen other issues that normal conservatives would never take. When he pushes for privatizing Aerolíneas Argentinas rather than simply selling it to the highest bidder he takes the Rothbardian purist approach of handing it directly to the workers. When he talks about dollarization he doesn't mean simply making the Dollar the new legal tender but implementing a system of competing currencies under a full reserve banking system. When someone points out that there's literally no country on Earth with that system rather than backtracking he points out that once every country had slavery too. Forget whether he's a libertarian, Milei might be the single most radical and consistent libertarian politician anywhere in the world.
So someone else should probably cover this to provide a more balanced perspective. Still, I'm doing my best to fight my biases and I'm hardly alone in thinking Milei could pull a Bolsonaro; increasingly I'm seeing more and more takes from analysts (typically the Kirchnerist ones, interestingly) that see the same. He has plenty of time to shoot himself in the foot but I'm not convinced that the weaknesses he's shown thus far are really all that significant. Skeptics say that he could drop to irrelevancy by next year and they're right, but he could also surge from a Bolsonaro-esque surprise victory to a Bukele-esque stomping if JxC's attacks continue in the vein of "Milei is like Messi and we're like Talleres :("
PSOL:
So here’s another poll
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The Libertarians in the legislative race could surpass the FdT in polling if the Federal Peronists and FIT keep eating up their margins.
Everything seems up in the air on what will happen next.
Estrella:
Quote from: Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P! on May 04, 2022, 10:44:11 AM
Meanwhile the bulk of the Radicals and the Civic Coalition would rather explicitly attack Milei but so far they haven't found any silver bullet.
Kind of related to this: what is still keeping Civic Coalition alive? They don't have a power base of governors like UCR, or an identifiable ideological purpose like PRO, or a strong personality like they used to have when Lilita was relevant, so it's a little surprising they still have 11 deputies.
Velasco:
Starting election threads more than one year before the elections take place is in bad taste, as well as contrary to the custom in this board. There is the Argentina general discussion thread, placed in the International General Discussion board
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