Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the process of joining probably won't be too protracted in this case.

[CumbrianLefty]

Vote Lib Dem on May 7 - keep Clegg as deputy PM

In case you haven't noticed, they didn't

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin today didn't sound like someone desperate to start any more wars any time soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is possible for both of these things to be true at the same time:

1) Russia has totally legitimate national interests and security concerns, and yes the West went badly wrong during and after the fall of the USSR in not sufficiently understanding and assisting these;

2) Russia's present conduct is totally outrageous and indefensible, and what happened previously is absolutely no excuse - the rest of the world is totally entitled to react appropriately, and that includes its neighbours pursuing whatever makes them feel most secure.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is possible for both of these things to be true at the same time:

1) Russia has totally legitimate national interests and security concerns, and yes the West went badly wrong during and after the fall of the USSR in not sufficiently understanding and assisting these;

2) Russia's present conduct is totally outrageous and indefensible, and what happened previously is absolutely no excuse - the rest of the world is totally entitled to react appropriately, and that includes its neighbours pursuing whatever makes them feel most secure.

Oh, the world is totally entitled to act the way it desires in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and I'd be lying if I claimed I didn't approve, on net, of the beating Russia is getting right now.

The thrust of what I'm saying is 1) you need to consider long-term and short-term, not just one or the other, and 2) the idea that NATO-style structures are good without limit and the more of them exist and the more powerful they are is automatically better, is basically the road to a world war. Such maximalist thinking is not how the Pax Americana is likeliest to be preserved, especially as the American military-industrial complex will have to do double-duty to maintain America's pre-eminent position.

(Of course, me being American, an analyst type, and IR realist all influence me here)

Realism is an archaic idea of global relations because it assumes state actors act logically. That myth should have been busted by now.

That assumption was never totally true, but is maybe now less so than at any time since WW2.

[CumbrianLefty]

Erdogan is doing the usual bargaining thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ukraine has a massive Nazi problem but the West doesn't care because they hate Russia more.

You haven't provided any facts to back up that claim (just like the Russian government usually does), so I'll just say that reality unfortunately disagrees with.

Okay, I just don't leave it that, because here's a fact: The ultranationalist "Svobod" party which notoriously was a junior member in the Ukrainian government back in 2014, has held only a single seat in the 450-member strong Ukrainian parliament since the last legislative election in 2019.

Maybe their definition of "massive" is different to yours and mine?

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin basically defines all those who disagree with him - at home and abroad - as "Nazis" these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

The dictator of Turkey doubles down on his opposition to Sweden's und Finland's NATO memberships.


https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1526252639046057991

Ultimately, he won't veto - I remain pretty confident about this.

[CumbrianLefty]

We said that about Putin until early this year.

[CumbrianLefty]

NATO is an alliance expressly aimed at strengthening member states' national security. Turkey has been a member for decades while Finland and Sweden now want to be in. If Finland and Sweden are actually supporting Kurdish independence fighters using violent means, I don't think it is strange at all for Turkey to demand concessions before they can enter NATO. And I also think it is ridiculous for Swedish foreign policy to be hijacked by one Kurdish MP who apparently holds a massive amount of power.

Yeah I actually agree with this. No love for Erdogran, but the PKK are terrorists and if Sweden is turning a blind eye to them that deserves a response.

They are terrorists in the sense that the US (and UK) desperately want Turkey on-side, and officially designating them terrorists is the price. Turning a blind eye to Turkish genocide is a price they are very willing to pay. Same reason why the West didn't come rushing to the aid of the Armenians in the way it has with Ukraine...

No, the PKK really are terrorists. For example:
https://www.france24.com/en/20160314-turkey-strikes-kurdish-targets-iraq-after-deadly-suicide-bombing-ankara

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Note, for example, the Jews in Israel conducted many bombings against British targets before independence, in part because of discriminatory policies.

Indeed, and they were - and are - widely regarded as terrorist groups for doing so.

[CumbrianLefty]

If you count most of the UK media at the time as "Jew haters" then maybe.

Even most Israelis/Zionists admit stuff like the King David Hotel bombing was indefensible.

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose the Kurds are used to it by now, what an unfortunate people.

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose the Kurds are used to it by now, what an unfortunate people.

Once Sweden and Finland have been admitted they don't really need to honor the deal anymore, don't they?

Oh how cynical of you.

(and correct, hopefully)

[CumbrianLefty]

Who are the dissenting votes here, just fringe parties (whether right, left or both)?

[CumbrianLefty]

The 'let's prioritize Asia' argument is of course stupid (and I don't think that Hawley seriously believes in it) but he's right about European NATO members spending way too little on their militaries.

Its the GOP we are talking about here, rule literally nothing out.

[CumbrianLefty]

As with Orban, the polls are irrelevant when the government has such total control over the levers of power - it’s not like Trump & Bolsonaro who could be made to go by civil society. Erdogan will probably lose the election, but he will then try to remain in power anyway (and has a better chance of success than Trump/Bolsonaro).

I would say Erdogan is in between those two examples. Imagine a genunely authoritarian Poland (as opposed to the mostly cosplaying from PiS currently) and we might be getting there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Speaking of:

"...the ratification vote may be delayed until the week of March 27 or April 3."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-14/hungary-to-delay-nato-enlargement-vote-opposition-lawmaker-says

Wasn't it supposed to happen several months ago?

Probably, this is Orban we are talking about after all.

[CumbrianLefty]

So that is something, at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

So the thread title will be accurate after all, if a year late.

Well, at least *partly* accurate.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe its something of a "friendly warning" to encourage Orban to do the right thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

He can - conceivably - get them to promise to do it, but he can't actually make them do it can he?

Once they have been admitted due to such "promises", Erdogan loses his leverage.

[CumbrianLefty]

Do you think the country that gave us Mick Wallace and Claire Whatsherface will join NATO?

They amount to peanuts in electoral terms.