Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[Torrain]

The British and Swedish PMs have formalised a mutual UK-Sweden defensive pact whilst on a trip to Harpsund, a clear attempt to deter the Russians from aggression during the application period. Swedish neutrality is already over - all that remains to be done is to submit a formal application in the coming weeks.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/TPKanslia/status/1524645891449270273?s=20&t=akBOdWXSJrqVcJXCvCDscQ

Here we go…

Definitely feels like the right decision to me. I just hope we can move quickly enough to minimise Moscow’s scope for retaliation or ‘punishment’ via cyber attack etc.

Think I might go change a couple of passwords just in case…

[Torrain]

The estimated timetable for the applications, according to Alexander Stubb (former Finnish PM writing in the Financial Times - Britain’s least exciting, but most reliable newspaper):

• Joint statement by Finnish PM and President today (occurred this morning)
• Sweden makes similar statement within next 3-4 days
• Joint “expression of intent to formally apply” to come early next week.

We’ve got a NATO summit down in Madrid in June, so I assume we’ll see the process expedited so any major issues can be smoothed over then.

In theory, the application process could take up to 12 months (all members need to agree to their entry), but I’d imagine that there are: a) assurances made to the two countries as part of the pre-application discussions, and b) existing plans on the books to provide both members with an easy entry to the bloc in a time of upheaval.

NATO sources keep suggesting the process could be done in “weeks” rather than months, so I imagine the Secretary General has already made calls to members to see whether they could force through a quick and easy vote.

The Finns and Swedes already have delegates who sit in at meetings of the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s decision-making body, and have run joint exercises with the bloc since the Crimean invasion in 2014. Reassuring the Hungarians and Croats, and placating them, may be the only barrier to a lightning-fast entry.

[Torrain]

Peskov says admission of Finland to NATO warrants a "symmetrical response" by Russia.

Wtf is this supposed to mean? They'll try to find a neutral, neighbouring country that wants to form a military alliance with them at this point?

Belarus ‘voted’ to remove legal barriers to hosting Russian nuclear weapons earlier this year.
If I had to guess, Moscow may consider placing warheads there, and doing it in a publicised, confrontational display. I’m no expert though, so that may be well off the mark.

[Torrain]

There was initial alarm as Turkey, a longtime NATO member, signaled this week that it might seek to block the Nordic countries’ joining the alliance. But on Saturday, a spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey walked back any potential challenge, saying that Turkey was merely trying to ensure that all alliance members’ security concerns were heeded.

So Turkey must have got what they wanted.

It wouldn't be European diplomacy without some toothless sabre-rattling that's easily solved by a hurried closed door deal.

It's one of our oldest traditions.

[Torrain]

They won’t join anytime soon - but man… if this is true, Putin’s war may have undercut concept of neutrality in Europe entirely…

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1526333836556222467
Edit: here’s the source article from Reuters - this is for real. Putin - such a strategic ‘genius’ he broke Swiss neutrality, one of the fundamental laws of European politics, and made them oppose him.  
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/

[Torrain]

Finland’s Parliament has approved a proposal to apply for NATO membership.
188 votes in favour, 8 in opposition, 3 absent.

Link from the Parliament’s social media below:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SuomenEduskunta/status/1526540191795920896

[Torrain]

Remove the sanctions, let Sweden and Finland join, then put the sanctions back. If Erdogan wants to play dirty then so should we.

Honestly - bet something like this ends up happening. Don’t think the sanctions would come back as soon as Sweden and Finland join - but would be on a hair-trigger. Basically, everyone pretends to make up with Turkey, but “expresses concern” as soon as they do something else dodgy/unethical, and start the process of putting them back in place.

[Torrain]

Applications have officially been submitted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1526817668212396032

[Torrain]

It wouldn't be European diplomacy without some toothless sabre-rattling that's easily solved by a hurried closed door deal.

It's one of our oldest traditions.

[Torrain]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

[Torrain]

The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.

Since everybody is acting like they don't know what I meant, I'll clarify.

The U.S. is not scared of Turkey's military. Happy?

Maybe, all of you in Europe are terrified based on these responses lol.

We're not pretending not to know what you meant. You said nobody was afraid of the Turkish military. Unless the US is the only country other than Turkey on the block, I don't think it's too much to point out that it's not a universal opinion (especially here on the International Discussion Board).  If your real meaning was simply that the US doesn't, then that's a different, far less contentious matter.

In all seriousness though - Turkey are a crucial player on NATO's eastern flank, and we have to keep them on side, while hoping we see Erdogan out of power before he does much more damage. I want a NATO that includes the US, Turkey, Finland and Sweden - while not violating the rights of any journalists. Which could be a long-term problem...

[Torrain]

I have to imagine this'll help Marin's coalition in the election tomorrow as well given how popular NATO currently is in Finland?

I mean for a long time the mainstream-conservative NCP has led the polls cause they historically have been the (vindicated) pro-NATO party. Now across the campaign they trended downwards leading to what appears to be a close race, but passage ironically might benefit them not Marin.

Aye. I haven’t been following this election that closely (been a hectic month, between domestic politics and IRL), but I keep hearing people suggest that Sauli Niinistö, President of Finland, is getting most of the credit for the NATO application. While he’s an independent now, he was a member of NCP until 2012.

Also, my impression is that the right-wing parties are fairly open to NATO bases on Finnish soil, while the left-wing parties are more skeptical. So while Marin helped progress the application, she’ll struggle to “own” the victory, given parties to her right are still more open to closer ties with the alliance.

[Torrain]

There’s now an empty flagpole waiting, alphabetically between Estonia and France, outside NATO headquarters.

[Torrain]

Still kinda impressed that after all the politicking, they managed to schedule Finland's accession for the anniversary of NATO's founding. Quite a way to mark 74 years of the alliance.

[Torrain]

They're in. Short formal moment where the paperwork has handed to Blinken. Finland's first formal act as a NATO member was then to submit their ratification of Sweden's application to join the alliance.

Edit: URL fixed - original was set to private.

[Torrain]

[Torrain]

So what does Erdogan's re-election victory mean for Sweden's prospects of finally joining NATO?

Slight improvement since he doesn't have to throw out as much national-populist red meat for a while. We'll see how slight "slight" is.

Aye - I imagine certain members of the alliance see this post-election period as a window for progress, and will offer a sweeter deal, in case they can get him on-side.

But if he digs his heels in over Sweden handing over those Kurdish activists, I guess we’ll be stuck in this holding pattern for quite some time.

[Torrain]

I understand Finland and Sweden's interest, but Switzerland comes as a complete surprise.  I wonder why they want to join the program:

Swiss neutrality has been chipped away at in recent years - particularly since the February 2022 invasion.

They imposed sanctions on Russia for "serious violation of the most fundamental norms of international law". And a report from the Swiss Ministry of Defence has encouraged closer ties with NATO - including the potential for joint military exercises.

Also, while the Swiss public oppose NATO membership 2:1, recent polling showed a majority (56%) favoured closer ties and cooperation with NATO.

[Torrain]

There are just instances where "neutrality" is not really an option.[/b] Not when you have such a clear right vs. wrong situation.

We are talking about the guys who sat out WW2 and took Nazi cash. Neutrality *shouldn't* have been an option on a couple of occasions, but it's only now they're actually shifting their position - I do think that's at least somewhat noteworthy.

As for NATO membership, watching out for Austria seems more realistic, though I doubt it will actually happen. Both are fully surrounded by NATO members, so the situation is different from Finnland and Sweden.

Austria does seem closest of the remaining Europe candidates (unless the Russians start cutting internet or energy cables in the Atlantic/Irish Sea, prompting some soul-searching in Dublin), but yeah, I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen anytime soon. There are neutrality clauses in the Austrian constitution (believe the Irish and Swiss are the same), so it would take some real maneuvering.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1762142508836933634?s=20

[Torrain]

Documents handed in over in Washington, and Sweden formally acknowledged - induction ceremony with flags and anthems at HQ expected on Monday.