Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

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https://twitter.com/RCourteau/status/1523695322588872705

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We couldn't have done it without you, Vladimir:

https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1524878668689989653

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Speaking of self-fulfilling prophecies, this is entirely of Putin's own doing:

For Putin, a Nordic Nightmare Is Springing to Life

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It is concerning, the potential for NATO expansion to create a world war.
I hope it never gets to that point.

Russia apparently doesn't have the capacity to wage a war, let alone a world war.  I wouldn't worry.  

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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1525860672252297218

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Senate on track to approve NATO bids of Finland and Sweden
Most Republicans are enthusiastically backing the countries' bids as a way to push back against Russian aggression.

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Returning to the original thread topic, it looks like we might see Finland joining NATO, but not Sweden:

Sweden’s NATO Bid Is in Trouble
Domestic politics have elevated a Kurdish parliamentarian, and that worsens Stockholm’s Turkey woes.

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NATO, Swedish leaders 'committed' to addressing Turkey's terror concerns

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Any word on Turkey and Hungary? They're the only ones from which ratification is remotely in doubt, I reckon.

^^^^^^^

Does anyone know? 

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Do we have a sense of if Sweden is likely to agree to Turkish demands? It seems pretty doubtful to me that they can join without paying their pound of flesh by cracking down on Kurdish political groups, but I don't know if that's something they'd be willing to do.

I also wouldn't rule out Erdogan moving the goalposts even if Sweden gives in to his blackmail.  

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Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

Out of curiosity, what is the DNA makeup of the people of Turkey?  It could be that like in Britain, most are natives with only a smattering of the DNA of their conquerors -and in Britain's case, most prominently Anglo-Saxon.  Although the story of the Anglo-Saxon 'conquest' has been put into question, and it could just be a massive and largely peaceful migration to eastern England.  Which makes me wonder if the Arthurian legend is more applicable to Anglo-Saxon England's struggles with the Vikings (who had identical DNA). And perhaps King Alfred was the real-life King Arthur.  

Anyway, as far as Turkey's DNA makeup is concerned, does anyone know?

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Hungarian delegation backs Sweden's NATO application

A parliamentary delegation from Hungary said Tuesday that it supports Sweden’s NATO membership bid after meeting the speaker of the Swedish parliament to iron out what Hungary’s governing party has called “political disputes.”

Some Hungarian lawmakers have raised doubts about whether to support the NATO membership applications by Sweden and Finland, citing what they call “blatant lies” from Stockholm and Helsinki on the state of Hungary’s democracy.

But the Hungarian delegation indicated Tuesday that the parliament in Budapest would ultimately ratify Sweden’s NATO bid.

“We support Sweden’s NATO membership,” Hungary's deputy parliamentary speaker, Csaba Hende, told Swedish news agency TT.

“We made it clear that the Hungarian government, the Hungarian president, the prime minister and most of the Hungarian parliamentarians clearly support Swedish NATO membership,” Hende said, according to the news agency.

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So what does Erdogan's re-election victory mean for Sweden's prospects of finally joining NATO?

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Despite his re-election victory, Erdogan continues to drag his feet:

No breakthrough in NATO-Turkey talks about Sweden joining

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Erdogan (like a true autocrat) has set his key condition for Sweden joining NATO -it must strip the Kurds of their right to free speech and assembly:

Erdogan tells NATO chief Sweden must stop Kurdish protests

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Thanks to Sultan Erdogan, Sweden isn't joining NATO -at least not by the NATO summit July 11-12 in Vilnius:

Erdogan signals Turkey isn't ready to ratify Sweden NATO membership, saying there's more work to do

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I understand Finland and Sweden's interest, but Switzerland comes as a complete surprise.  I wonder why they want to join the program:

Sweden, Finland and Switzerland are considering security links with US National Guard, general says

The National Guard's State Partnership Program is a lesser-known but key military instrument for U.S. troops to build relationships with foreign militaries by conducting regular training and education exchanges with young officers. It partners National Guard units with host nations.

The program can help foreign military better shape their own operations to reflect Western military organization and equipment. That is something seen as key to getting a host of Eastern European nations on NATO standards to ease how multinational armies could conduct operations.

The National Guard program began 30 years ago after the collapse of the Soviet Union as former Soviet states looked for ways to move away from their communist-styled military organization. Ukraine was one of the first to join the National Guard program, partnering with California's National Guard. From the earliest days of Russia's invasion, Ukraine's air force has reached out for support to the California National Guard partners it trained with.

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We are approaching mid-September -how much longer will we have to wait before Turkey finally agrees to support Sweden's NATO membership bid?

On the brink of joining NATO, Sweden seeks to boost its defense spending by 28%

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NATO member-to-be Sweden and the US sign defense deal
On the brink of joining NATO, Sweden has signed a defense cooperation agreement with Washington that will allow the United States access to all of the military bases across the Scandinavian country, saying the deal would bolster regional security

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Turkey Puts Sweden’s NATO Bid Back on Agenda Next Week

The Foreign Affairs Committee in Ankara listed Sweden’s bid among the topics for debate on Dec. 26, according to an invitation from the panel’s chairman, Fuat Oktay, seen by Bloomberg.

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So we have to wait until mid-January when the Turkish Grand National Assembly reconvenes, and Turkey finally approves Sweden's bid to join NATO:

Turkish Parliament unlikely to vote on Sweden's NATO bid for weeks

Turkey's parliament is unlikely to hold a full vote on Sweden's bid to join NATO before mid-January, parliamentary sources told AFP Thursday.

Sweden's accession to the US-led Western alliance was approved by the foreign affairs committee on Tuesday, bringing an end in sight to a 19-month standoff that drew the wrath of Turkey's Western partners.

It must now be voted by the full 600-seat parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling alliance holds the majority. The president would then need to sign it into law.

Although Erdogan's party could call for a special session to discuss the measure, it appears likely it will wait until after parliament's scheduled return on January 15.

And then we have to worry about Hungary.  Does anyone know when the Hungarian National Assembly convenes early next year?

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So we have to wait until mid-January until the Turkish Grand National Assembly reconvenes, and Turkey finally approves Sweden's bid to join NATO:

Turkish Parliament unlikely to vote on Sweden's NATO bid for weeks

Turkey's parliament is unlikely to hold a full vote on Sweden's bid to join NATO before mid-January, parliamentary sources told AFP Thursday.

Sweden's accession to the US-led Western alliance was approved by the foreign affairs committee on Tuesday, bringing an end in sight to a 19-month standoff that drew the wrath of Turkey's Western partners.

It must now be voted by the full 600-seat parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling alliance holds the majority. The president would then need to sign it into law.

Although Erdogan's party could call for a special session to discuss the measure, it appears likely it will wait until after parliament's scheduled return on January 15.

And then we have to worry about Hungary.  Does anyone know when the Hungarian National Assembly convenes next year?

Not a shock as Turkey is plainly going for a quid pro quo of linking Sweden joining NATO with them getting F16s which can’t be done until congress comes back. The issue of Hungary shouldn’t be a big deal as they won’t go in alone on this especially with the fallout they’re getting in the EU

Still slow-walking it:

Hungarian Parliament Excludes Sweden's NATO Bid from Spring Agenda

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https://twitter.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/1750137900165926977

Is that a fact?

Orbán’s party boycotts a session of Hungary’s parliament to further stall Sweden’s bid to join NATO

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Has Hungary done it yet, finally?

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Until they have a new President, Hungary is still going to stall on this agreement even after their National Assembly passes it on Monday, assuming they keep their word:

Even if Hungary’s parliament votes in Sweden’s favour on Monday as expected, there could yet be room for more potential stalling as it will still need to be signed by the president. Hungary’s president, Katalin Novák, recently announced her resignation, so the appointment of a new president and the decision on Sweden’s Nato application could potentially overlap, meaning that it could yet be sent to the constitutional court.

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Hungary gets new president following scandal

Last week, ruling party Fidesz nominated Constitutional Court head Tamas Sulyok, 67, to replace Novak, Hungary's first woman president.

On Monday, parliament -- where Fidesz' ruling coalition with the Christian Democratic KDNP holds a two-thirds majority -- approved his appointment, after which he took the oath of office.

He will become president on March 5.

Little known to the broader public, Sulyok became a constitutional court judge in 2014 and, two years later, the court's head.

The opposition has criticised the nomination of politically inexperienced Sulyok.