Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[Torrain]

Still kinda impressed that after all the politicking, they managed to schedule Finland's accession for the anniversary of NATO's founding. Quite a way to mark 74 years of the alliance.

[Torrain]

They're in. Short formal moment where the paperwork has handed to Blinken. Finland's first formal act as a NATO member was then to submit their ratification of Sweden's application to join the alliance.

Edit: URL fixed - original was set to private.

[Steve from Lambeth]

They're in. Short formal moment where the paperwork has handed to Blinken. Finland's first formal act as a NATO member was then to submit their ratification of Sweden's application to join the alliance.

 

Am I supposed to not be able to watch this video? WHAT IS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HIDING FROM US?

[Sir Mohamed]

Awesome - just awesome!

What a colossal L for Putin & Russia and it's by their own doing. Happy to welcome Finland aboard to NATO!

Yup, that was a huge own goal by Putler. So much for the strategic mastermind.

It's just unfortunate Sweden still isn't admitted. Hopefully Erdogan loses next month and Turkey changes course.

[Torrain]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wonderful news. Today the country that originally said "Nyet, Molotov!" says "Nyet, Vladimir!" A proud, independent country and a key asset in the global fight against authoritarian neoimperialism.

[UWS]

Awesome - just awesome!

What a colossal L for Putin & Russia and it's by their own doing. Happy to welcome Finland aboard to NATO!

Yup, that was a huge own goal by Putler. So much for the strategic mastermind.

It's just unfortunate Sweden still isn't admitted. Hopefully Erdogan loses next month and Turkey changes course.

Good nickname for Putin « Putler »

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1648050837816594435?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

[Oryxslayer]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

I mean the Turkish election is in a month. So things are unlikely to happen until then, but said vote might be the development you are inquiring about.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

Olaf Scholz has recently said that he expects Sweden to be a member by the next NATO leaders' summit in July... which will be almost exactly two months after the first round of the Turkish presidential election.

Until then we're doomed to play charades with Erdotroll.

[MaxQue]

Anything actually happening regarding Sweden any time soon?

Olaf Scholz has recently said that he expects Sweden to be a member by the next NATO leaders' summit in July... which will be almost exactly two months after the first round of the Turkish presidential election.

Until then we're doomed to play charades with Erdotroll.

Even if he changed his mind, the Assembly has been suspended for elections since April 6th. They are coming back the 3rd day after the Supreme Election Board proclaims the results of the elections.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hopefully the clowns in Turkiieiyyey change their minds or lose re-election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

I've seen some commentary claiming as much, but what stands out as more important than the (low) potential for changing of the guard is that the election will have passed. This will mean that even if he is still in charge, Erdogan won't be leaning so hard into various forms of populism for campaigning purposes.

[Oryxslayer]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

I've seen some commentary claiming as much, but what stands out as more important than the (low) potential for changing of the guard is that the election will have passed. This will mean that even if he is still in charge, Erdogan won't be leaning so hard into various forms of populism for campaigning purposes.

I mean polling points towards either a clear and definitive loss for the AKP - thanks to inflation,  overall economic woes, earthquake, etc - or a rigged result that is so obvious that it would prompt widespread unrest, condemnation,  and violence. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is the opposition to the Sultan more likely to accept Sweden joining?

I've seen some commentary claiming as much, but what stands out as more important than the (low) potential for changing of the guard is that the election will have passed. This will mean that even if he is still in charge, Erdogan won't be leaning so hard into various forms of populism for campaigning purposes.

I mean polling points towards either a clear and definitive loss for the AKP - thanks to inflation,  overall economic woes, earthquake, etc - or a rigged result that is so obvious that it would prompt widespread unrest, condemnation,  and violence.  

I don't think Erdogan is so unpopular that he can't ride out the unrest when (and it is a when) he rigs the election.

[Frodo]

So what does Erdogan's re-election victory mean for Sweden's prospects of finally joining NATO?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what does Erdogan's re-election victory mean for Sweden's prospects of finally joining NATO?

Slight improvement since he doesn't have to throw out as much national-populist red meat for a while. We'll see how slight "slight" is.

[Torrain]

So what does Erdogan's re-election victory mean for Sweden's prospects of finally joining NATO?

Slight improvement since he doesn't have to throw out as much national-populist red meat for a while. We'll see how slight "slight" is.

Aye - I imagine certain members of the alliance see this post-election period as a window for progress, and will offer a sweeter deal, in case they can get him on-side.

But if he digs his heels in over Sweden handing over those Kurdish activists, I guess we’ll be stuck in this holding pattern for quite some time.

[Storr]

"Seeking Sweden's accession to the alliance, the US Congress proposed Swedish membership as a condition for the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

The Erdogan administration was not fond of this proposal, with officials unsure whether senators such as Democrat Bob Menendez would keep their word, or if other congressmen would support the condition.

...

However, Turkish officials have said they still support Sweden's membership but would like to see Stockholm take measures against the presence of suspected members of the PKK armed group."


https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1663266974229512204?s=20

[Storr]

"Billström said he now expected Sweden to join the alliance ahead of a NATO meeting in Vilnius on July 11."

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1663745078316212224?s=20

[Storr]

NATO really wants Sweden to join by July 11th. Articles I have read focus on Turkey's opposition. It seems most people expect Hungary to quickly vote in favor of Sweden once Turkey gives the nod, as it was with Finland.

My feeling is that Sweden will join by July 11th. (Obviously this could be wrong, but the fact senior officials quoted in news articles don't seem too concerned makes me feel that they know it's going to happen barring something unexpected.)

Neither Turkey or Hungary have ever said they oppose Sweden joining NATO, instead giving reasons (of varying validity) why they can't approve it at the current time. I'm sure Erdogan will claim that Sweden has taken satisfactory "anti-terrorist" action once the sale of F-16s from the US is agreed upon. Orban's rationale for not approving Sweden's accession is literally "they said mean things about us", which is a much easier problem to solve than Turkey.

NATO is in a race against time to save itself from a major embarrassment

"NATO officials and people within the Swedish government are now becoming concerned that missing the July 11 deadline – the date of its next official summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius – would send a dangerous message to the alliance’s adversaries."

"For their part, the pro-Sweden allies – including the United States and United Kingdom, arguably the two most influential NATO members – are doubling down on July 11 and privately offering Sweden assurances that it is their priority, no matter what Turkey does."

[Frodo]

Despite his re-election victory, Erdogan continues to drag his feet:

No breakthrough in NATO-Turkey talks about Sweden joining

[SnowLabrador]

Despite his re-election victory, Erdogan continues to drag his feet:

No breakthrough in NATO-Turkey talks about Sweden joining

If anything, I would have thought being reelected would have emboldened him. This doesn't surprise me, sadly.