Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[TheReckoning]

The best outcome is probably Erdogan going down in the election and his replacement okaying Sweden and Finland and then kick out Hungary as a trade

And have a Russian ally right in the heart of Europe?

Surely can’t go wrong there!

They are already. Might as well rob them of there veto ability inside NATO

Not every right of center government is pro-Putin. But kicking Orban out of NATO will only push them more in that direction.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The best outcome is probably Erdogan going down in the election and his replacement okaying Sweden and Finland and then kick out Hungary as a trade

And have a Russian ally right in the heart of Europe?

Surely can’t go wrong there!

They are already. Might as well rob them of there veto ability inside NATO

Not every right of center government is pro-Putin. But kicking Orban out of NATO will only push them more in that direction.

Right but my assertion that Orban is pro-Putin is based off his actual actions not because of some political scale alignment

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The best outcome is probably Erdogan going down in the election and his replacement okaying Sweden and Finland and then kick out Hungary as a trade

And have a Russian ally right in the heart of Europe?

Surely can’t go wrong there!

If Hungary had a firmer alliance with Russia and was not a member of NATO, Western governments might be more inclined to treat its government with the scrutiny it already deserves.

That would not be in NATO's interests as an organisation, but most of its member states - as part of the EU - arguably would have benefited (in the long term) from cutting their losses a long time ago w.r.t. Hungary. Governance issues have arguably passed the point of no return domestically, and now it's a thorn in the side of EU governance.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The best outcome is probably Erdogan going down in the election and his replacement okaying Sweden and Finland and then kick out Hungary as a trade

And have a Russian ally right in the heart of Europe?

Surely can’t go wrong there!

They are already. Might as well rob them of there veto ability inside NATO

Not every right of center government is pro-Putin. But kicking Orban out of NATO will only push them more in that direction.

Of course not. The UK is under a right wing government and is among the biggest supporters of Ukraine.

[All Along The Watchtower]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

[Isaak]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

There is none.

And it would be ridiculous to expel a member state (especially one as important as Türkiye) just because it does not agree with the others on expanding the alliance. No country is obliged to agree to that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

There is none.

And it would be ridiculous to expel a member state (especially one as important as Türkiye) just because it does not agree with the others on expanding the alliance. No country is obliged to agree to that.

This is about Hungary, not Turkey. There's not really much of a contest (from a realpolitik perspective) between any of the Nordic states and Hungary. If all other members were in agreement, no formal mechanism would be required.

The main reason we hear less about Hungarian opposition than Turkish is because they are aware of this and very likely to fold if/when Turkey accepts Finland and Sweden. Orban is essentially just trolling for lower gas prices (although Hungary's current contracts with Russian suppliers mean they're paying more for it than the rest of the EU, for now).

To borrow a turn of phrase: what Hungary is doing should be taken seriously, not literally - but it's unlikely to be taken either way.

[Sol]

Do we have a sense of if Sweden is likely to agree to Turkish demands? It seems pretty doubtful to me that they can join without paying their pound of flesh by cracking down on Kurdish political groups, but I don't know if that's something they'd be willing to do.

[Frodo]

Do we have a sense of if Sweden is likely to agree to Turkish demands? It seems pretty doubtful to me that they can join without paying their pound of flesh by cracking down on Kurdish political groups, but I don't know if that's something they'd be willing to do.

I also wouldn't rule out Erdogan moving the goalposts even if Sweden gives in to his blackmail.  

[All Along The Watchtower]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

There is none.

That's what I suspected.

So then, "NATO should kick out Turkey (and/or Hungary/whomever)" is a nonsensical statement, and everyone should stop making such nonsensical statements.

[Lord Halifax]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

There is none.

That's what I suspected.

So then, "NATO should kick out Turkey (and/or Hungary/whomever)" is a nonsensical statement, and everyone should stop making such nonsensical statements.

That's not really true. A country can be found to be in material breach of the treaty, which would allow the other member states to terminate the treaty in their relations with the defaulting state.

There is legal argument that violating the principles underlying the treaty constitute a material breach if they are so extensive in scope, so severe and so persistent as to effectively disavow or repudiate the treaty, and that compliance with the values set out in the preamble and Article 2 are considered essential for the accomplishment of the object and purpose of the treaty.

https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/

I've written about it before and can elaborate if need be.

[All Along The Watchtower]

How does one go about kicking a country out of NATO? Is there even a mechanism for that?

There is none.

That's what I suspected.

So then, "NATO should kick out Turkey (and/or Hungary/whomever)" is a nonsensical statement, and everyone should stop making such nonsensical statements.

That's not really true. A country can be found to be in material breach of the treaty, which would allow the other member states to terminate the treaty in their relations with the defaulting state.

There is legal argument that violating the principles underlying the treaty constitute a material breach if they are so extensive in scope, so severe and so persistent as to effectively disavow or repudiate the treaty, and that compliance with the values set out in the preamble and Article 2 are considered essential for the accomplishment of the object and purpose of the treaty.

https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/

I've written about it before and can elaborate if need be, but

Thanks. Still seems exceedingly unlikely, and that’s understating the case.

Turkey and Greece fought a war against one another over Cyprus, did they not? Were the US, UK, Poland, and Spain (initially) in breach of the treaty’s principles over the invasion of Iraq? How about the UK and France re: Suez in 1956? Or France re: the Algerian War of Independence? Or France and then, for much longer, the US re: Indochina? Or the US, UK, and other member-states re: violating so many principles underlining the treaty globally (and potentially domestically, and not just in Turkey or Hungary or even other European member-states—see: the contemporary Republican Party in the US) in ways that are extensive in scope, severe, and persistent.

And Turkey has one of the largest militaries in NATO, and are important regarding Syrian refugees and the Middle East in general, however incredibly problematically. I suspect a lot of policymakers and military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials in many NATO countries recognize this.

Good luck getting a unanimous vote from the other members to expel Turkey. And as for Hungary? Now that is pure fantasy.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The first trojan horse in history was done by the ancient Greeks in Turkey.

Now, Turkey itself is the trojan horse. Sabotaging NATO from within.

[bagelman]

May 2023?

The first trojan horse in history was done by the ancient Greeks in Turkey.

Now, Turkey itself is the trojan horse. Sabotaging NATO from within.

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

[Frodo]

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

Out of curiosity, what is the DNA makeup of the people of Turkey?  It could be that like in Britain, most are natives with only a smattering of the DNA of their conquerors -and in Britain's case, most prominently Anglo-Saxon.  Although the story of the Anglo-Saxon 'conquest' has been put into question, and it could just be a massive and largely peaceful migration to eastern England.  Which makes me wonder if the Arthurian legend is more applicable to Anglo-Saxon England's struggles with the Vikings (who had identical DNA). And perhaps King Alfred was the real-life King Arthur.  

Anyway, as far as Turkey's DNA makeup is concerned, does anyone know?

[Lord Halifax]

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

Out of curiosity, what is the DNA makeup of the people of Turkey?  It could be that like in Britain, most are natives with only a smattering of the DNA of their conquerors -and in Britain's case, most prominently Anglo-Saxon.  Although the story of the Anglo-Saxon 'conquest' has been put into question, and it could just be a massive and largely peaceful migration to eastern England.  Which makes me wonder if the Arthurian legend is more applicable to Anglo-Saxon England's struggles with the Vikings (who had identical DNA). And perhaps King Alfred was the real-life King Arthur.  

Anyway, as far as Turkey's DNA makeup is concerned, does anyone know?

Turks are overwhelmingly descended from the local Anatolian population and have far less Turkic ancestry than Turkic people further east, then there is an Ottoman Era (incl. Muslim refugees from the Russo-Turkish War) genetic impact from the Balkans which is substantial in Western Turkey.

The Turkic peoples mixed with other groups on their way west such as Iranian tribes and Tocharians, but the core was East Asian (they likely originally came from Manchuria). Modern Anatolian Turks have only about 15% East Asian DNA on average, while Kazakhs have around 80% and Yakuts c. 99% East Asian DNA.

Afaik it's fairly well established that the English are mainly descended from Celtic Britons, not the Anglo-Saxons. Like Anatolia there is a lot of genetic continuity on the British Isles where various conquerors took over and the language changed but while they naturally passed on their genes and had more offspring than local men due to being a dominant group the core of the population remained unchanged.

[Хahar 🤔]

how many layers of ideology are you on

like,, maybe 5, or 6 right now. my dude

you are like a little baby, watch this:

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

how many layers of ideology are you on

like,, maybe 5, or 6 right now. my dude

you are like a little baby, watch this:

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

Wait, why am I being quoted? I didn't make that post - bagelman did.

[Хahar 🤔]

how many layers of ideology are you on

like,, maybe 5, or 6 right now. my dude

you are like a little baby, watch this:

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

Wait, why am I being quoted? I didn't make that post - bagelman did.

Apologies! I copied over Frodo's formatting error. Fixed now.

[Lord Halifax]

May 2023?

The first trojan horse in history was done by the ancient Greeks in Turkey.

Now, Turkey itself is the trojan horse. Sabotaging NATO from within.

Reminder that Turkey is a colonizer. Just like the US, the Turkish people replaced the native people with their own. "Turkey" did not exist when Troy stood.

There was no replacement below the elite level, it's a case of the locals gradually assimilating into the culture of the conquerors while also influencing it in the process.

The early 20th century genocides and the attempt at forced assimilation of the Kurds is a different kettle of fish, but I wouldn't call that colonization.

[Frodo]

Hungarian delegation backs Sweden's NATO application

A parliamentary delegation from Hungary said Tuesday that it supports Sweden’s NATO membership bid after meeting the speaker of the Swedish parliament to iron out what Hungary’s governing party has called “political disputes.”

Some Hungarian lawmakers have raised doubts about whether to support the NATO membership applications by Sweden and Finland, citing what they call “blatant lies” from Stockholm and Helsinki on the state of Hungary’s democracy.

But the Hungarian delegation indicated Tuesday that the parliament in Budapest would ultimately ratify Sweden’s NATO bid.

“We support Sweden’s NATO membership,” Hungary's deputy parliamentary speaker, Csaba Hende, told Swedish news agency TT.

“We made it clear that the Hungarian government, the Hungarian president, the prime minister and most of the Hungarian parliamentarians clearly support Swedish NATO membership,” Hende said, according to the news agency.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1635595364123426816?s=20

[Middle-aged Europe]

Erdotroll is feeling gracious, Finland accession impending.


https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1636073618890190851


https://mobile.twitter.com/guardian/status/1636075989942915074

[Storr]

Erdotroll is feeling gracious, Finland accession impending.


https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1636073618890190851


https://mobile.twitter.com/guardian/status/1636075989942915074

The vagueness of the anonymous statements from Turkish officials has me very suspicious. "Turkey's parliament will "highly likely" ratify Finland's NATO accession bid before mid-April."

Hungary has repeatedly used similar vague time frames "in the fall", "early next year", "around February" and still hasn't ratified the NATO accession of either Sweden or Finland.

[Storr]

Speaking of:

"...the ratification vote may be delayed until the week of March 27 or April 3."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-14/hungary-to-delay-nato-enlargement-vote-opposition-lawmaker-says