Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[MichaelRbn]

Biden scheduled to complete US ratification at 2:00 pm (local time) today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news on the remaining 7 countries? Does anyone have a schedule for when their votes are scheduled?

[MaxQue]

Any news on the remaining 7 countries? Does anyone have a schedule for when their votes are scheduled?

No. Hungary and Turkey will take their time as much as they can; Greece, Slovakia and Czechia are on summer recess. Spain sent it to Parliament on the 3rd, but it is causing significant strain between the PSOE and Podemos. No clue for Portugal.

[President Johnson]

So Erdogan apparently continues to block NATO admission after a meeting with Sweden's new prime minister. Hopefully he gets voted out next year.

https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/1590025587992952832

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems pretty serious. I thought the Swedish strategy was going to be to make optimistic noises in the expectation that Turkey would keep delaying, but only until after their 2023 election.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1612079633859592192

[President Johnson]

Seems pretty serious. I thought the Swedish strategy was going to be to make optimistic noises in the expectation that Turkey would keep delaying, but only until after their 2023 election.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1612079633859592192

I think at this point they should hope for a change after the 2023 election. I remain skeptical that Erdogan will actually be defeated leave office inspite of hyperinflation, an economic crisis and some Erdogan fatigue in Turkey. Relationships would certainly improve with a president from the CHP.

[Storr]

Seems pretty serious. I thought the Swedish strategy was going to be to make optimistic noises in the expectation that Turkey would keep delaying, but only until after their 2023 election.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1612079633859592192

I think at this point they should hope for a change after the 2023 election. I remain skeptical that Erdogan will actually be defeated leave office inspite of hyperinflation, an economic crisis and some Erdogan fatigue in Turkey. Relationships would certainly improve with a president from the CHP.

The main issue with hoping for change following the election is that the main opposition leader Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has been jailed for calling members of the High Election Board "fools" (yes, seriously that's all he said) for canceling his March 2019 Mayoral victory. He won the June 2019 rerun, anyway. But the point is that, since opposition victories in the 2019 municipal elections, the government has been doing anything it can do hinder his chances of victory over Erdogan.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230105-turkey-s-bickering-opposition-seeks-unity-against-erdogan

"The troubled fate of Istanbul's popular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, one of Erdogan's most internationally recognised rivals, highlights the opposition's plight.

A court banned him from politics last month for slander in a case stemming from his 2019 victory, which was initially annulled.

Imamoglu can keep serving as mayor while the appeal process winds its way through the courts.

But a separate interior ministry probe against his office on "terrorism" charges threatens to sideline him sooner.

The twin cases make Imamoglu's candidacy extremely risky for the opposition, despite polls showing him beating Erdogan in a head-to-head race."

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I hate Erdogan and the Turkish government. Pathetic.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems pretty serious. I thought the Swedish strategy was going to be to make optimistic noises in the expectation that Turkey would keep delaying, but only until after their 2023 election.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1612079633859592192

I think at this point they should hope for a change after the 2023 election. I remain skeptical that Erdogan will actually be defeated leave office inspite of hyperinflation, an economic crisis and some Erdogan fatigue in Turkey. Relationships would certainly improve with a president from the CHP.

The main issue with hoping for change following the election is that the main opposition leader Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has been jailed for calling members of the High Election Board "fools" (yes, seriously that's all he said) for canceling his March 2019 Mayoral victory. He won the June 2019 rerun, anyway. But the point is that, since opposition victories in the 2019 municipal elections, the government has been doing anything it can do hinder his chances of victory over Erdogan.

I don't think Erdogan is likely to be ousted - he's probably consolidated enough power to prevent this - but he's clearly a bit nervous (as all long-lasting rulers ought to be) and not taking it for granted.

This is why I thought there was (and possibly still is) some room for Sweden/Finland to hope for change after the election. Erdogan has electoral reasons to drum up nationalist sentinment prior to that and can more easily afford to scale back afterwards.

That being said, I find the Swedish PM's language much more pessimistic than previous statements. I'm not going to read too much into it beyond this assessment.

[Santander]

When I was in Istanbul in November, there were posters of Erdogan everywhere and some young people were taking selfies beside them. It was kinda scary, you don't even get that in Russia.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That being said, I find the Swedish PM's language much more pessimistic than previous statements. I'm not going to read too much into it beyond this assessment.

So here's the play if things are still not sorted following the Turkish election.

Step 1) A new organization called The North Atlantic Defense Organization is created. It is identical to NATO, except that it has a different letter in the 3rd word forming its NADO acronym. All current NATO members as well as Sweden and Finland are eligible to join NADO, should they wish to do so.

Step 2) Jens Steltenberg announces he is resigning as head of NATO, and by coincidence, is simultaneously offered the position of NADO head. At right about the same time, USA, UK, France, Germany, Poland, as well as every other NATO member country announces it is pulling out of NATO and joining NADO. Sweden and Finland also announce they are joining NADO and withdraw their still-pending NATO applications.

Step 3) With no funding and no budget remaining, and no members other than Turkey left, NATO has no option but to sell its office space and other infrastructure. Curiously, there turns out to be a willing buyer - NADO.

Step 4) If Turkey wishes, it may join NADO and join the party. Or Turkey can just stay in NATO and have a defensive alliance with itself. Either way, whatever Erdogan prefers is fine.



For bonus points, you can perform a similar operation with the European Union, the European Junction, and Hungary.

[Torie]

That's nice. One way or the other the goal needs to be to strip from the problem children states that don't contribute much the veto power.

[Lord Halifax]

That's nice. One way or the other the goal needs to be to strip from the problem children states that don't contribute much the veto power.

In NATO Turkey is both the biggest problem child and one of the biggest contributors.

[The Mikado]

Turkey has a very impressive military and a deep historic rivalry with Russia going back over 300 years and being basically constantly true. That said, Erdogan's "play both sides against the middle/appeal to Turkic roots in Azerbaijan and Central Asia to create a Turkish bloc" foreign policy is going to conflict with the rest of NATO regularly.

Turkey's a big boy and doesn't really need the United States or NATO to protect it. I said nearly a year ago here Turkish military could take the Russians already and that's way truer than it ever was. Turkey isn't a charity case like some rich NATO countries that don't want a real military because the US will take care of them, Turkey can and does defend itself quite effectively. That said, if they want to prevent Sweden from joining over bulls**t PKK harboring reasons (hopefully they'd still let Finland in?) and want to help Russia avoid sanctions etc, I think that NATO should look for other options after a certain point. Turkey's goals are just not the same goals as the rest of NATO.

Turkey would be fine without NATO. Maybe even more than fine. Turkey is a rising power, not a falling power like most of the main Western European NATO partners. And NATO would be more than fine without Turkey. I don't even think there'd need to be intense bitterness about it, but if the AKP wins Turkey's next election, saying "bon voyage, good luck with having Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan replace us as your main partners" is totally fair and merited.

[Lord Halifax]

(hopefully they'd still let Finland in?)

The Finnish government has made it clear they won't join without Sweden since that would leave them without strategic depth and their militaries cooperate closely, so it doesn't really matter.

The Turkish military hasn't really been tested against a peer adversary and the country's economy and political system have significant structural weaknesses, so it remains to be seen whether it's really a rising power in the long run.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

That being said, I find the Swedish PM's language much more pessimistic than previous statements. I'm not going to read too much into it beyond this assessment.

So here's the play if things are still not sorted following the Turkish election.

Step 1) A new organization called The North Atlantic Defense Organization is created. It is identical to NATO, except that it has a different letter in the 3rd word forming its NADO acronym. All current NATO members as well as Sweden and Finland are eligible to join NADO, should they wish to do so.

Step 2) Jens Steltenberg announces he is resigning as head of NATO, and by coincidence, is simultaneously offered the position of NADO head. At right about the same time, USA, UK, France, Germany, Poland, as well as every other NATO member country announces it is pulling out of NATO and joining NADO. Sweden and Finland also announce they are joining NADO and withdraw their still-pending NATO applications.

Step 3) With no funding and no budget remaining, and no members other than Turkey left, NATO has no option but to sell its office space and other infrastructure. Curiously, there turns out to be a willing buyer - NADO.

Step 4) If Turkey wishes, it may join NADO and join the party. Or Turkey can just stay in NATO and have a defensive alliance with itself. Either way, whatever Erdogan prefers is fine.



For bonus points, you can perform a similar operation with the European Union, the European Junction, and Hungary.

Sounds similar to the Plan if the war ends with the West agreeing that Ukraine can't join NATO

The founding of a new defense alliance- NATOU- The North Atlantic Treat Organization with Ukraine 

[warandwar]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

Kurdish people getting murdered for voting for the wrong party, maybe?
Turkey's military is very well equipped and funded.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

Kurdish people getting murdered for voting for the wrong party, maybe?
Turkey's military is very well equipped and funded.

You know what I meant.

[ingemann]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.

[Torrain]

Nobody is scared of Turkey's military.

[Conservatopia]

That being said, I find the Swedish PM's language much more pessimistic than previous statements. I'm not going to read too much into it beyond this assessment.

So here's the play if things are still not sorted following the Turkish election.

Step 1) A new organization called The North Atlantic Defense Organization is created. It is identical to NATO, except that it has a different letter in the 3rd word forming its NADO acronym. All current NATO members as well as Sweden and Finland are eligible to join NADO, should they wish to do so.

Step 2) Jens Steltenberg announces he is resigning as head of NATO, and by coincidence, is simultaneously offered the position of NADO head. At right about the same time, USA, UK, France, Germany, Poland, as well as every other NATO member country announces it is pulling out of NATO and joining NADO. Sweden and Finland also announce they are joining NADO and withdraw their still-pending NATO applications.

Step 3) With no funding and no budget remaining, and no members other than Turkey left, NATO has no option but to sell its office space and other infrastructure. Curiously, there turns out to be a willing buyer - NADO.

Step 4) If Turkey wishes, it may join NADO and join the party. Or Turkey can just stay in NATO and have a defensive alliance with itself. Either way, whatever Erdogan prefers is fine.



For bonus points, you can perform a similar operation with the European Union, the European Junction, and Hungary.

Sounds similar to the Plan if the war ends with the West agreeing that Ukraine can't join NATO

The founding of a new defense alliance- NATOU- The North Atlantic Treat Organization with Ukraine 

North Atlantic Treaty Organization feat. Ukraine (Taylor's Version)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.

Since everybody is acting like they don't know what I meant, I'll clarify.

The U.S. is not scared of Turkey's military. Happy?

Maybe, all of you in Europe are terrified based on these responses lol.

[ingemann]

The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.

Since everybody is acting like they don't know what I meant, I'll clarify.

The U.S. is not scared of Turkey's military. Happy?

Maybe, all of you in Europe are terrified based on these responses lol.

Not really, I expect that the moment Turkey fought a peer or even a near peer, they would show a lot of problem and they would be worsen by Erdogan purges of the military. The fact that most of Turkey’s experience is fighting a asymmetric enemy and occupy hostile territory make it likely they would get a rude awakening, when people shoot back. We could see it in Syria, where Turkey took significant losses against the semi-conventional army of YPG, very similar to the problems Israel had with Hezbollah in the last invasion of Lebanon.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Not really, I expect that the moment Turkey fought a peer or even a near peer, they would show a lot of problem and they would be worsen by Erdogan purges of the military. The fact that most of Turkey’s experience is fighting a asymmetric enemy and occupy hostile territory make it likely they would get a rude awakening, when people shoot back. We could see it in Syria, where Turkey took significant losses against the semi-conventional army of YPG, very similar to the problems Israel had with Hezbollah in the last invasion of Lebanon.

The last sentence of my post wasn't 100% serious.

Was the "lol" not an indicator?