Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The dictator of Turkey doubles down on his opposition to Sweden's und Finland's NATO memberships.


https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1526252639046057991

Ultimately, he won't veto - I remain pretty confident about this.

Tinfoil hat time, but I think him telling the Finns and Swedes not to bother negotiating beyond his demands was a signal to the US that his real problem was not with hypothetical FETO super soldiers or Swedish arms sanctions but American arms sanctions, which are far more significant.

Recall that Turkey’s rusting airforce was cut out of the F-35 jet program (for which training had already begun) because of its purchase of Russian air defences, which had occurred because the US was refusing to selling air defences to Turkey along with a license to partially manufacture them.

The US is antsy about training Russian AD against F-35s, but the neat solution would be to give in to Turkey’s demands about the F-35s and sell them air defences in exchange for sending the Russian AD systems to Ukraine. However, this would require diplomacy beyond what Turkey and the USA have proved capable of recently.

There’s one other problem with lifting arms sanctions on Turkey, and this is the danger to Kurdistan. Whatever Western governments do, I hope they also take measures to ensure its survival, but betraying the Kurds is traditional American foreign policy.

[Torrain]

Finland’s Parliament has approved a proposal to apply for NATO membership.
188 votes in favour, 8 in opposition, 3 absent.

Link from the Parliament’s social media below:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SuomenEduskunta/status/1526540191795920896

[Badger]

Upending 200+ years of military non-alignment for... what, exactly? Is Sweden's security really at greater risk today than at any point since the time of Napoleon?

Since the Nazi occupation of Norway at least, yes.

This isn't exactly rocket science levels of diplomacy.

Very large military aggressive country bordering Sweden and Finland invades neighboring country then threatens Sweden and Finland that they are next.

Sweden and Finland. Gee, we really don't want to be invaded. Hey nato, can we join you guys so it becomes highly unlikely will be invaded?

Nato. Sure, come on in!

Russia and various shills for putin. This is all NATO's fault!1!!

[Big Abraham]

Upending 200+ years of military non-alignment for... what, exactly? Is Sweden's security really at greater risk today than at any point since the time of Napoleon?

Since the Nazi occupation of Norway at least, yes.

This isn't exactly rocket science levels of diplomacy.

Very large military aggressive country bordering Sweden and Finland invades neighboring country then threatens Sweden and Finland that they are next.

Sweden and Finland. Gee, we really don't want to be invaded. Hey nato, can we join you guys so it becomes highly unlikely will be invaded?

Nato. Sure, come on in!

Russia and various shills for putin. This is all NATO's fault!1!!

If Sweden's longstanding military non-alignment culture can withstand both world wars, then I think it can withstand a guy barely even able to conquer any of Ukraine.

[Badger]

Upending 200+ years of military non-alignment for... what, exactly? Is Sweden's security really at greater risk today than at any point since the time of Napoleon?

Since the Nazi occupation of Norway at least, yes.

This isn't exactly rocket science levels of diplomacy.

Very large military aggressive country bordering Sweden and Finland invades neighboring country then threatens Sweden and Finland that they are next.

Sweden and Finland. Gee, we really don't want to be invaded. Hey nato, can we join you guys so it becomes highly unlikely will be invaded?

Nato. Sure, come on in!

Russia and various shills for putin. This is all NATO's fault!1!!

If Sweden's longstanding military non-alignment culture can withstand both world wars, then I think it can withstand a guy barely even able to conquer any of Ukraine.

Maybe yes, maybe no. To my knowledge in World War 1 the Central Powers never made any particular / threats towards Swedish neutrality. In WWII obviously they had to be on their best behavior of neutrality for 90% of the war or risk being invaded by either Hitler or Stalin. It's not like they had the choice of joining a military Alliance to protect as opposed to expose them until literally mid 1945 given the German troops in Norway didn't surrender until nearly a month after VE Day. I think it is manifestly clear that, if Sweden hypothetically could have joined a military alliance with the Allies that would have somehow lessened its chance of invasion by either Germany or the soviets, it would have grabbed it with both hands and justifiably so.

But those are Completely apples to oranges comparisons. Today they have a significant existential threat, and the option of a solid military Alliance to dramatically reduce said threat. Again, a diplomatic no-brainer for which no one but Putin himself is responsible. (Shrug).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue here is that neutrality is only any use if your neutrality is recognised by others.

[Antonio the Sixth]

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Turkey has dropped the pretence of only wanting something from Sweden and Finland:

https://www.twitter.com/haskologlu/status/1526638741787488260
It wants some (toothless, perhaps?) “acknowledgement of concerns” about the YPG and PKK from Sweden and Finland, which is less than it was asking for yesterday. However, it wants lifting of all military sanctions (while keeping its S-400s, it seems) and re-inclusion in the F-35 program, which is up to the USA.

The extortion is pretty grim (considering that Erdogan didn’t raise these concerns any earlier in the process) but I think Turkey’s “allies” will suck it up. It gives the EU more opportunities to slowly supplant NATO as the principal European defence organisation - membership probably provides enough of a deterrent to prevent a Russian attack, although membership of NATO is still a bit more credible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The extortion is pretty grim (considering that Erdogan didn’t raise these concerns any earlier in the process) but I think Turkey’s “allies” will suck it up. It gives the EU more opportunities to slowly supplant NATO as the principal European defence organisation - membership probably provides enough of a deterrent to prevent a Russian attack, although membership of NATO is still a bit more credible.

Remove the sanctions, let Sweden and Finland join, then put the sanctions back. If Erdogan wants to play dirty then so should we.

[Torrain]

Remove the sanctions, let Sweden and Finland join, then put the sanctions back. If Erdogan wants to play dirty then so should we.

Honestly - bet something like this ends up happening. Don’t think the sanctions would come back as soon as Sweden and Finland join - but would be on a hair-trigger. Basically, everyone pretends to make up with Turkey, but “expresses concern” as soon as they do something else dodgy/unethical, and start the process of putting them back in place.

[Helsinkian]

Finland’s Parliament has approved a proposal to apply for NATO membership.
188 votes in favour, 8 in opposition, 3 absent.

The 8 No votes were:

• 6 MPs from the Left Alliance (but even they were outnumbered by Yes votes in their party)
• 1 MP from the Finns Party (Mika Niikko, who had to resign as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee shortly before the invasion because he had suggested that the crisis would be solved by NATO announcing that Ukraine can't ever join it)
• Ano Turtiainen, the sole MP from Power Belongs to the People (Turtiainen, who was expelled from the Finns Party and then founded his own party, is not only anti-Nato but also pretty much openly pro-Putin)

Some have noted that 188–8 is very much unanimous compared to certain other important votes:

• In 1995, EU membership was ratified with 152–45
• In 1917, Finland's declaration of independence was ratified with 100–88 (in fairness, the Social Democrats, who voted against, were not against independence, but they were against a unilateral declaration)

[Isaak]

No need to unnecessarily alienate Erdogan in these times. What he asks for is more than reasonable.

[Torrain]

Applications have officially been submitted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1526817668212396032

[Antonio the Sixth]

No need to unnecessarily alienate Erdogan in these times. What he asks for is more than reasonable.

Yeah, when has appeasing autocrats with an interest in suppressing ethnic minorities and invading their neighbors ever caused problems down the road?

oh wait

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

In addition to the demands w.r.t. the jet program and military sanctions, Turkey has clarified that it wants something concrete from Finland and Sweden - the extradition of 30 people.

https://www.twitter.com/CasusBellii/status/1526919374472454144

I hope the named individuals are getting the hell out of dodge, but it’s quite probable not all of them will.

Turkey’s demands just seem to get larger by the day, and may not even be sincere. This could well end with the demands being considered unacceptable and Finland and Sweden not getting in - NATO isn’t going to kick Turkey out for those two states.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The extortion is pretty grim (considering that Erdogan didn’t raise these concerns any earlier in the process) but I think Turkey’s “allies” will suck it up. It gives the EU more opportunities to slowly supplant NATO as the principal European defence organisation - membership probably provides enough of a deterrent to prevent a Russian attack, although membership of NATO is still a bit more credible.

Remove the sanctions, let Sweden and Finland join, then put the sanctions back. If Erdogan wants to play dirty then so should we.

Yeah, back stabbing, just what it takes to get still more dirty tricks from the tricky ones, and in this case, 'just' the one that controls the Black Sea, always somewhere in the Caucasus, and now extends influence till Middle East where the West is losing some, playing either the nationalist or Islamist cards accordingly

Being tricky and being smart arent necessarily antagonistic notions

Whats going on with all this is really making the point, all the Westies all of sudden dropping their particularities to be in the same pack, while the only non Westie of the pack is causing troubles, and thats again what Russia would desperately try to do, to put all of us in a corner in the eyes of the rest of the World

[Sir Mohamed]

Leave NATO or just throw Turkey out. I would gladly trade them for Finland and Sweden.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1526900613434466305

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Leave NATO or just throw Turkey out. I would gladly trade them for Finland and Sweden.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1526900613434466305

Plenty of European countries might be willing to trade Turkey for Finland and Sweden for EU-related reasons, but the but probably not all, and almost certainly not the US, either. Turkey has more short-term strategic value, and as the American approach to Saudi Arabia should indicate, capacity to consider the long term is very poor.

The second invasion of Cyprus and the repeated betrayals of Kurdistan were smaller-scale, but the US was also prepared to alienate Greece to some extent, which is probably not much less significant than Finland or Sweden.

[BlueSwan]

No need to unnecessarily alienate Erdogan in these times. What he asks for is more than reasonable.

LOL, it absolutely is not reasonable.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The demands get upgraded…again:

https://www.twitter.com/CasusBellii/status/1526925189434466305

It’s possible Erdogan wants to keep the Swedes and Finns out to appease Russia, and that none of his asks are sincere.

[Badger]

The ugly fact is Edgrogan has NATO by the balls here. As admitting Sweden and Finland are so important at the moment, I fear we have to largely appease for now hopefully not at the expense of extraditing those 30 individuals at least, and then once the ink is dry put him on a tripwire notice that if he f**** around again he'll find out regarding sanctions. But if he's a good boy he'll get what he wants, again, at least for now.

[jaichind]

One way out is for NATO to disband and form a new alliance called the "Grand Treaty Alliance of No Turkeys" a la "The Ancient Mystic Society of No Homers"

[Isaak]

No need to unnecessarily alienate Erdogan in these times. What he asks for is more than reasonable.

LOL, it absolutely is not reasonable.

Doesn't matter. Turkey calls the shots in the end. If they say no, it's a no - and they're far more important to the alliance than SE + FI ever could be.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No need to unnecessarily alienate Erdogan in these times. What he asks for is more than reasonable.

LOL, it absolutely is not reasonable.

Doesn't matter. Turkey calls the shots in the end. If they say no, it's a no - and they're far more important to the alliance than SE + FI ever could be.

I agree Turkey is likely to call the shots because of the perception of its importance by some NATO members, but I’d argue this perception is false - and it’s not just Sweden and Finland.

Turkey wasn’t indicating it had problems with their membership before they put their cards on the table, and most of its demands are of states that are already members; if the demands are considered unacceptable, then the choice is not between Turkey and two Nordics but Turkey and any situation where Turkey can use a veto to reiterate its demands. Giving Turkey too much of what it wants risk pushing Greece and Cyprus even further away, among other problems.

[Sol]

Yeah there's no world where NATO ejects Turkey lol. Much more important strategically to keep it in there than to allow in Sweden or Finland. Probably NATO members will have to cave to every single Turkish demand if they want to allow either country in.