I don't believe Jeb! would have won. On the other hand, I doubt Cuomo would have won. Someone has to win, of course.
Andrew Cuomo has never had real popularity outside NY, and he wasn't all that popular inside NY. If he had real popularity he could have ridden out the scandals to where he would not have had to resign. His abrasive and arrogant persona got the worst of him and people pounced on him when they saw weakness.
On the other hand, Jeb Bush was really A Bridge Too Far. Americans like name recognition in polls but they have a degree of hesitancy when it comes to flat-out dynasties. For all the JFK mania, Americans tired of the Kennedys long before 1980; nowadays, a Kennedy can only get elected in Massachusetts, and even there, Joe Kennedy III lost to Ancient Ed Markey (who, in his old age, is the liberal megastar people thought he'd be eons ago). Jeb Bush had the problem of his brother being a poorly regarded President (although he's bounced back a tad while out of office).
Interesting, so if you have to say someone wins, who would you say wins and what does the map look like?