Echelon Insights nat. poll: D: Harris 30% Buttigieg 11% Booker 7%; R: DeSantis 35% Pence 15% Cruz 7%

[Mr. Morden]

Echelon Insights national poll, conducted April 18-20:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/April-2022-Omnibus-Topline-.pdf

Democrats:
Harris 30%
Buttigieg 11%
Booker 7%
Abrams 6%
Warren 6%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%
Klobuchar 4%
Gabbard 2%
Whitmer 1%
Manchin 1%
Newsom 1%
Cooper 1%
Murphy 1%
Beshear, Sinema, Landrieu, Raimondo, Pritzker, Adams, Polis 0%

Republicans:
DeSantis 35%
Pence 15%
Cruz 7%
Haley 6%
Trump Jr. 5%
Rubio 3%
Romney 2%
Pompeo 2%
Hogan 2%
Cotton 1%
T. Scott 1%
Abbott 1%
Cheney 1%
Sasse, Hawley, Noem, R. Scott, Christie, Youngkin, Hurd, Sununu 0%

Then they had these 3 2-way race hypotheticals for the GOP nom.:

Trump 55%
DeSantis 34%

Trump 64%
Pence 28%

DeSantis 51%
Pence 34%

And then Trump vs. “Someone Else”:

Trump 58%
Another Republican 36%

And on the Dem. side, they also polled Biden vs. “Someone Else”:

Biden 48%
Another Democrat 41%

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/April-Omnibus-Crosstabs.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

men:
Harris 31%
Buttigieg 10%
Abrams 7%
Booker 7%
Warren 6%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

women:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 11%
Booker 7%
Warren 7%
Abrams 5%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

white college grad:
Buttigieg 20%
Harris 16%
Booker 10%
Warren 9%
Klobuchar 8%
Abrams 5%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

white non-college grad:
Harris 20%
Buttigieg 15%
Booker 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Warren 7%
Gabbard 4%

black:
Harris 53%
Abrams 13%
Booker 7%
Warren 5%
Newsom 3%

Hispanic:
Harris 35%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Abrams 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren 3%

age 18-29:
Harris 37%
Ocasio-Cortez 10%
Abrams 8%
Warren 6%
Booker 3%

age 65+:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 19%
Booker 10%
Klobuchar 9%
Abrams 3%

A few GOP crosstabs…

age 18-29:
DeSantis 35%
Trump Jr. 16%
Cruz 10%
Pence 7%
R. Scott 3%

age 65+:
DeSantis 42%
Pence 15%
Haley 8%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 5%

urban:
DeSantis 35%
Pence 12%
Trump Jr. 8%
Haley 5%
Pompeo 4%

suburban:
DeSantis 35%
Pence 16%
Cruz 8%
Haley 7%
Trump Jr. 4%

rural:
DeSantis 36%
Pence 16%
Cruz 9%
Haley 6%
Trump Jr. 5%

already vaxxed:
DeSantis 34%
Pence 17%
Cruz 8%
Haley 8%
Rubio 3%

will not get vaxxed:
DeSantis 41%
Pence 12%
Trump Jr. 7%
Cruz 6%
Romney 3%
Haley 3%

And then in the Trump vs. DeSantis race…

age 18-29:
Trump 72%
DeSantis 22%

age 65+:
DeSantis 45%
Trump 42%

less than $30k income:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 20%

greater than $125k income:
Trump 43%
DeSantis 40%

already vaxxed:
Trump 47%
DeSantis 39%

will not get vaxxed:
Trump 70%
DeSantis 25%

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Crosstabs can be found here:

http://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/April-Omnibus-Crosstabs.pdf

A few Dem. crosstabs…

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

men:
Harris 31%
Buttigieg 10%
Abrams 7%
Booker 7%
Warren 6%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

women:
Harris 29%
Buttigieg 11%
Booker 7%
Warren 7%
Abrams 5%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

white college grad:
Buttigieg 20%
Harris 16%
Booker 10%
Warren 9%
Klobuchar 8%
Abrams 5%
Ocasio-Cortez 5%

white non-college grad:
Harris 20%
Buttigieg 15%
Booker 10%
Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Warren 7%
Gabbard 4%

black:
Harris 53%
Abrams 13%
Booker 7%
Warren 5%
Newsom 3%

Hispanic:
Harris 35%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Abrams 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren 3%

age 18-29:
Harris 37%
Ocasio-Cortez 10%
Abrams 8%
Warren 6%
Booker 3%

age 65+:
Harris 24%
Buttigieg 19%
Booker 10%
Klobuchar 9%
Abrams 3%

So Atlas Dems white college grads favor Buttigieg, everyone else favors Harris

Interesting that Elon Musk has the worst favorables with the AAPI crosstab (n=37), which is 72% male and 71% over 50.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

A common theme in the Republican primary polling is that Trump does best with younger poorer voters and DeSantis does best with older richer voters. This once again proves my theory that Trump still holds the most weight among the populists in the party who are the future of the GOP, young and poor.

[Mr. Morden]

A common theme in the Republican primary polling is that Trump does best with younger poorer voters and DeSantis does best with older richer voters. This once again proves my theory that Trump still holds the most weight among the populists in the party who are the future of the GOP, young and poor.

The other interpretation when the divisions fall along these lines though is that the lesser known challenger (in this case DeSantis) does better with that more "elite" group in part because those are the people who are actually paying attention to politics, and so they know who DeSantis is.  The voters who are younger and poorer aren't paying attention yet, but they will by the time their primaries are held (or if they don't pay attention even by then, then they probably won't vote anyway).  And once they do, their DeSantis support may move closer to what we're seeing with those who are already paying attention.