If Kerry won the presidency without the popular vote...
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  If Kerry won the presidency without the popular vote...
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Author Topic: If Kerry won the presidency without the popular vote...  (Read 2053 times)
President Johnson
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« on: April 19, 2022, 03:35:34 PM »

If John Kerry won the presidency in 2004 by just flipping Ohio while losing the popular vote to Dubya, would a serious movement to abolish or reform the Electoral College have emerged? After picking the "wrong guy" twice in a row while both parties got screwed, I think there may have been some support from Republicans as well.

If only Ohio is flipped from actual 2004 results, Kerry wins 272-266 while losing the popular vote by more than Bush did in 2000.
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BigVic
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2022, 12:04:28 AM »

The Republicans will try to introduce an Amendment in Congress to abolish the electoral college after two elections with a split EV/PV and close result
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2022, 09:57:13 AM »

By the time any momentum could have got going on a constitutional amendment/NPVIC, the 2008 election would have seen a Republican swept into office with a clean popular vote majority and taken the wind out of any reform efforts.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2022, 04:00:51 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2022, 06:26:15 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.
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TheTide
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2022, 09:04:07 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.

Trump lost by about 30% in California in 2016 and the national popular vote by about 2. Without being bothered to do the arithmetic, he might have eeked out the popular vote if he had kept California to a 20-point margin and New York and Illinois to a few percent closer.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2022, 09:05:50 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.

Trump lost by about 30% in California in 2016 and the national popular vote by about 2. Without being bothered to do the arithmetic, he might have eeked out the popular vote if he had kept California to a 20-point margin and New York and Illinois to a few percent closer.


That's still a nearly impossible haul given the nation's increasing polarization.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2022, 10:41:21 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.

Trump lost by about 30% in California in 2016 and the national popular vote by about 2. Without being bothered to do the arithmetic, he might have eeked out the popular vote if he had kept California to a 20-point margin and New York and Illinois to a few percent closer.


That's still a nearly impossible haul given the nation's increasing polarization.

The other way to plausibly do it would be R+15 Florida.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2023, 04:01:20 PM »

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.

Trump lost by about 30% in California in 2016 and the national popular vote by about 2. Without being bothered to do the arithmetic, he might have eeked out the popular vote if he had kept California to a 20-point margin and New York and Illinois to a few percent closer.

It would have been the best possible chance of an amendment passing.

I do wonder what would happen if the Republican Hispanic and Democratic Inland West trends continued and DeSantis lost the EC while winning the PV in 2024 or (more reasonably) 2028?

Until Republicans can bring California and Illinois back to single digit margins, and New York and other northeastern states to the teens; they are not going to win the popular vote.

Trump lost by about 30% in California in 2016 and the national popular vote by about 2. Without being bothered to do the arithmetic, he might have eeked out the popular vote if he had kept California to a 20-point margin and New York and Illinois to a few percent closer.


That's still a nearly impossible haul given the nation's increasing polarization.
I suspect Trump ties the popular vote in 2016 without the p**** tape
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Jim Crow
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2023, 04:27:48 PM »

If John Kerry won the presidency in 2004 by just flipping Ohio while losing the popular vote to Dubya, would a serious movement to abolish or reform the Electoral College have emerged? After picking the "wrong guy" twice in a row while both parties got screwed, I think there may have been some support from Republicans as well.

If only Ohio is flipped from actual 2004 results, Kerry wins 272-266 while losing the popular vote by more than Bush did in 2000.

Both parties would support the notion further, but I don't see it happening.  Another way to look at is that both parties were even and moved on.  Bush himself would've never made a big deal about losing re-election no matter what the results were. 
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