2000: 65+ voters were D+4, 18-24s were tied. 2016, 65+ were R+8, 18-24s were D+21. What changed? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 12:07:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  2000: 65+ voters were D+4, 18-24s were tied. 2016, 65+ were R+8, 18-24s were D+21. What changed? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2000: 65+ voters were D+4, 18-24s were tied. 2016, 65+ were R+8, 18-24s were D+21. What changed?  (Read 2153 times)
Unelectable Bystander
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,099
« on: April 25, 2022, 07:16:38 AM »

The Bush presidency and the subsequent Obama presidency  made a lot of younger people a lot more liberal. Basically before the 2004 election, there was very little correlation between youth and partisanship

And for the most part the bush administration made strong appeals to older voters with Medicare part D and not pursuing fiscal austerity as some republicans wanted to do so.

Also, young people have trended pretty substantially back to the right since the Obama years, when the "hope and change" messaging was more powerful.

Keep telling yourself that. You've admitted you live in a bubble before, and this it it coming through again. Abortion rights and such are as popular as ever among younger people. In 2012, Obama won those 18-24 by a 60-36 margin (D+24) and Biden won them by 34 points. Some rightward shift.

2008: D+34/D+33 (18-24/25-29)
2012: D+24/D+22
2016: D+21/D+14
2020: D+34/D+11

As for 2020, I have a hard time believing that big of a dichotomy between 18-24's and 25-29's.  I could buy that some gap has opened up, but I have a hard time seeing an over 20-point difference between those voter groups.  I'm guessing it's just small wonky sample sizes.  Like, in 2020, the "white 18-29" vote was either R+9 or D+7, depending on which exit poll you use.

I was wrong about 2012, but it still seems that overall 2008 levels of support for Democrats among young voters was an anomaly.  Additionally, it's a myth that people don't get more conservative as they age.  The 18-29 crowd from 2008 would have been 30-41 in 2020.  According to those same exit polls, people in their 30s were only D+5, or one point to the left of the NPV, in 2020.  Going from over D+30 to an even PVI seems notable.

I'd think it would come from having to pay taxes more. I doubt people go from being pro-choice to being hardcore religious folks within a decade.

I’m not sure why one’s stance on abortion would be considered more central to the ideological spectrum than taxes. What does their reasoning matter if they are voting for Donald Trump? Anyway, this sentence perfectly illustrates the fact that many of the people that consider themselves pro-choice don’t actually care enough to vote on it
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.017 seconds with 11 queries.