Rate NY-11

[Schiff for Senate]

Tilt R, closer to Lean R than tossup

You do realize this was redistricted to a Biden+11 seat, right? Unless the map is overturned and replaced by a fair map, this seat is Lean D (and a lot closer to Likely than Tilt).

I know it's Biden +11, which makes it about D+6 in a neutral environment. I'm predicting a R+9 national environment so I'm even overestimating dem's chances here.

I say it's R+5 at most, you say it's R+9. I'll give you a deal: If the GOP wins the NPV for the House by even 8 points (which is less than the 9 points you think they'll win by) or more, I will not post on this board until the end of next year (so I wouldn't post from the time at which the results of the midterms were confirmed until January 1, 2024). However, if they win it by 5 points or less, you do the same. Do you agree? (All I'm asking here is for you to put your money where your mouth is - and I'll do the same.)

Well the NPV will be somewhere between R+5.1 and R+7.9, so you'll both be able to stay. Congrats.

All right then since no one is reciprocating my offers, I personally promise not to post on this board from the time at which the results have been fully confirmed until 2024 if the GOP wins the House NPV by a margin greater than 6 points (I can see them doing a bit better than 5 points, I admit, but if it's more than 6, I'm more than willing to admit I was completely wrong once again and punish myself for being so confident).

Why are you all even doing this?

You can have different predictions without having to resort to a bet about leaving the forum. This has usually been associated with obnoxious and mean posters like SirWoodbury and NSV and has not been borne out of a cordial disagreement like this. It's not like Pieman or CR is worsening the forum in the way NSV attacking anyone who predicted a Youngkin was.

I agree that if this was about leaving the forum, it'd certainly be extreme. However, I think it makes more sense since both of us (though not really disrespectful, and certainly more polite than NSV was) are pretty confident about our predictions, that we put something on the line, and leaving this particular board for over a year seems wholly appropriate. I know that regardless of this bet, I myself would be mortified if my predictions were once again way off the mark. I'm inviting any other interested party (in this case Pieman) to join me in agreeing to leave this board (not the entire forum, mind you, because that really would be extreme) if they are proven wildly wrong about the midterms.

Note that also unlike NSV, I've not had any major arguments with anybody (arguments, yeah, but they didn't get that heated or anything). I'm not doing this out of animus or to prove a point. I'm rather doing this because I myself want to hold myself to some level of punishment if I am once again proven wrong. My promise is, in fact, not made out of ego or anger or some major argument I had with somebody (because I didn't - I mean, I've had disagreements for sure, but it's not gotten the way it did with Woodbury and NSV). Because if I am, given that I'll have been wrong twice in a row, perhaps it'd be a good opportunity for me to read and listen to others on this board and learn instead of continuing to post wrong predictions that no one will (understandably) give any credence to. On the other hand, I intend to be right on this. I feel like many of us might have read a little too much into VA and are forgetting the fact that there are still months to go to November and that things can very easily turn around.

Ultimately I'm doing this to put my money where my mouth is and so that my 'bold' predictions are backed by something bigger. Otherwise I could go about making whatever bold predictions I wanted that had no basis in fact, but this way, I'll be holding myself accountable if I am proven wrong (in which case I do deserve to stay off this board for a while and learn from my mistakes rather than repeat them).

Maybe for a year you could change your name to CentristDemocrat and put your avatar as D-India. That'd be funnier and would actually mock you for a Dem-friendly prediction.

Honestly, given that you have zero control over the election outcome, it means nothing if you get it wrong. R+5 is as reasonable as R+8 because almost anything is reasonable so far out of the election. There won't be any mistakes to learn from.

You're right (maybe I could do that instead / as well). But now it's not like I'm going to back out from my original promise now, since Pieman has me on the record. Let's just hope I'm right and 2022 isn't the bloodbath for Democrats Pieman is predicting it will be and this shouldn't be a problem anyway.    I'm quite confident the GOP won't win by 6 points, though quite honestly, it is possible and in retrospect, my promise was probably not a good idea (maybe for like 9 points, because that's what Pieman's guess is and I can 1000% guarantee that ain't happening barring something like Watergate 2.0) this far out. Still, I'm going to stand by it now because I don't believe in going back on my word (and because Pieman has me on the record).

Also keep in mind that history is on my side. I just checked - even in 2014, the GOP fell just short of winning the House NPV by 6 points (they won by 5.7%). Unless they can somehow outdo 2014 in terms of NPV (which they have very little chance of doing), I'm fine. Even the massive bloodbath that was 2010 was only R+6.8 nationally.

Democrats won the NPV in 2018 by 9 points, and I'm predicting a reverse-2018 for in the house.

This ignores the fact that Democrats and Republicans are different (Democrats are more popular overall) and Biden isn't as toxic as Trump.

Biden is about as unpopular now as Trump was at this point in his presidency.

That may be, but 2018 isn't going to be like 2022 in terms of NPV. This much is pretty much guaranteed. Like I said, look at how well the GOP has done in its own landslides - even in 2010 and 2014, it wasn't able to win the NPV by even 7 points. Democrats won by 9 points in 2018? Good thing for Democrats. It does not mean the GOP can do that in 2022. The ceiling for the GOP this year is like 7 (which would still be more than what they won by in 2010 and 2014).

I believe the last time the GOP won the House NPV by even 8 points was 1946, when they flipped 55 seats.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Likely D with Rose, Tilt R with DeBarros

[lfromnj]

HOLY QUOTE PYRAMID.