Better chance of voting Republican: Delaware or Connecticut?
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  Better chance of voting Republican: Delaware or Connecticut?
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Author Topic: Better chance of voting Republican: Delaware or Connecticut?  (Read 1141 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: April 17, 2022, 02:21:55 PM »

While both are difficult flips what would the GOP have a better chance of winning?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2022, 11:23:54 PM »

Delaware. Slightly lower share of college-educated residents, and it has smaller cities. 
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2022, 10:59:54 AM »

Delaware has very R favorable demographic trends, and I think the Biden's margin is inflated by his home state advantage
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2022, 01:23:46 PM »

At the presidential level, Delaware by far.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2022, 07:19:10 PM »

Delaware has very R favorable demographic trends, and I think the Biden's margin is inflated by his home state advantage

Do you think Delaware can be a swing state anytime soon?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2022, 09:10:06 PM »

Delaware has very R favorable demographic trends, and I think the Biden's margin is inflated by his home state advantage

Do you think Delaware can be a swing state anytime soon?

It won't. It might not be quite as liberal as CT, but it's still fairly left-wing. Since it was Biden's homestate in 2020, look at 2016 then - it was Clinton+11. Trends aren't nearly favourable enough to the GOP here (if they are at all) to deliver the state to them or make DE a plausible swing state for the next several decades.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2022, 05:08:17 PM »

Delaware.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2022, 07:35:31 PM »

Delaware. I recall seeing Sanders beating Trump by just 1% there. The wrong kind of Democrat could flip it. That's probably not the case for Connecticut because it's more socially liberal with some Democrat-trending yacht club Republicans.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2022, 03:13:51 PM »

Delaware, but neither will realistically flip. Would it be fair to say Montana/Alaska are the mirror images of these two?
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2022, 04:31:53 PM »

Delaware, but neither will realistically flip. Would it be fair to say Montana/Alaska are the mirror images of these two?

No. AK's 2020 margin was much smaller than DE's, CT's, or MT's. As for MT, it is way more Democratic downballot than DE and CT are Republican.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2022, 07:29:00 PM »

Connecticut is very heavily educated, suburban and wealthy. It's a state that is more likely to trend democratic than republican.
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MarkD
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2022, 10:23:38 AM »

Delaware. I recall seeing Sanders beating Trump by just 1% there. The wrong kind of Democrat could flip it. That's probably not the case for Connecticut because it's more socially liberal with some Democrat-trending yacht club Republicans.
^^^^^
This makes the most sense to me.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2022, 05:33:36 PM »

Connecticut is very heavily educated, suburban and wealthy.

Country club Republicans?
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