The next Republican to win the popular vote will be...
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  The next Republican to win the popular vote will be...		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: see above
#1
... a challenger winning a first term		  
#2
... an incumbent president winning reelection		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: The next Republican to win the popular vote will be...  (Read 2156 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2022, 11:48:22 AM »
It seems pretty clear to me that California would swing right noticeably for a DeSantis type and the Northeast would swing noticeably right for a Youngkin type, so I would still say 2024.  If Trump himself  is the nominee, this gets much harder though.
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支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)
khuzifenq
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« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2022, 12:24:27 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 21, 2022, 11:48:22 AM
It seems pretty clear to me that California would swing right noticeably for a DeSantis type and the Northeast would swing noticeably right for a Youngkin type, so I would still say 2024.  If Trump himself  is the nominee, this gets much harder though.

Where in CA do you think a DeSantis type would most strongly overperform Generic R? I’m a bit skeptical that DeSantis himself would pull this off, unless he pivots to the left on environmental issues or something.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #27 on: May 21, 2022, 01:03:41 PM »
Quote from: MRS. MEE SUM CHU on May 21, 2022, 12:24:27 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on May 21, 2022, 11:48:22 AM
It seems pretty clear to me that California would swing right noticeably for a DeSantis type and the Northeast would swing noticeably right for a Youngkin type, so I would still say 2024.  If Trump himself  is the nominee, this gets much harder though.

Where in CA do you think a DeSantis type would most strongly overperform Generic R? I’m a bit skeptical that DeSantis himself would pull this off, unless he pivots to the left on environmental issues or something.

Plurality-Hispanic areas of SoCal. 
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