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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Technical (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Technical  (Read 125631 times)
opebo
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Posts: 47,052


« on: January 05, 2004, 06:52:16 am »

I think that the matchup between the 2000 map and the 2004 compiled map of user predictions is very suspicious.  Recently the map had begun to reflect a larger Republican victory, with New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa switching to Republican, but this did not last long.  I think a large number of Republican prediction maps were removed to make the average or median more Democratic.  This can be seen by the fact that the number of submitted user predictions drops occasionally.  Interestingly, this adjustmet always favors the Democrats.
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opebo
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Posts: 47,052


« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2004, 12:28:04 pm »

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OK...I seriously doubt that Leip is purposefully trying to favour the Democrats in the prediction maps. That makes abolutely no sense.
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Well, I'm open to alternative explanations.  Can you think of any?  There's no doubt the number of entries drops occasionally, and the result is a shift back to 269-269 from a substantial Republican lead.
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opebo
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Posts: 47,052


« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2004, 12:39:05 pm »

Thanks for the explanation Dave.  I guess it shows how much some of us respect 'democracy'!  Thanks for the fun site by the way.

You know another cool way to come up with an electoral map would be to allow users to log in and vote one time each in their home state of choice.  I guess that would just be an online poll.  
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opebo
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Posts: 47,052


« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2004, 04:44:11 pm »

Note that I have upgraded the user prediction pages.  Please submit bugs and/or post any problems here.
Thanks,
Dave

I filled out the registration form and entered my 'code', but it says my account is not set up.. can't post a prediction.
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