2024 Election Game (Gameplay Thread)

[GoTfan]

Blitzer: Welcome back. Votes are still being counted in the New Hampshire primary tonight. Vince McMahon overperforming the polls and Vice President Harris riding high on that debate victory. We'll go to John King over on the Magic Board. John, what can you tell us?

King: At this age, the race is still too close to call on both sides. McMahon's path to victory is beyond narrow, but it is still there, so we're not calling that one just yet. Cooper's path is slightly larger, but the fact is that Harris is running well across the board. At this stage, it looks like it'll be Trump and Harris again, but both should be careful going forward; I don't think this is getting sorted out by Super Tuesday.

Democratic New Hampshire primary (23 delegates)- 50% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 55.2%

Gov. Cooper 44.8%

New Hampshire Republican primary (22 delegates)- 50% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 57.5%

Mr McMahon: 42.5%

King: In all likelihood, there will be a call soon on both sides, but given how dramatically the race has been shaken up lately, we're not confident enough to call the race at this stage.

Blitzer: Alright, so still a fairly close race. One thing we can say for sure: the polls were off dramatically. They predicted a blowout by former President Turmp and a much closer contest between Harris and Cooper, but that's not the case. Jake, what do you make of this?

Tapper: Well I think it shows that in this day and age, debates still matter. They still matter even if no one watches them, because the significant moments are going to get a lot of replay across TV and the internet. That's been proven tonight.

Bash: Exactly right Jake. We like to think that in this age of digital campaigning, the traditional forms don't matter. THey still do, as has been shown. That said, I'm looking at some early polls in South Carolina; Cooper is still in the lead there. As we said earlier; he has to win in the south on Super Tuesday in order to have a path to the nomination. That path is still open, but it's gotten just that little bit narrower tonight.

Phillip: It certainly is. I would argue that his path is a bit wider; especially with John Kerry in the race. He'll either win the northeast by himself or split it with Harris. One thing I can say; I'm looking at some early polling for Michigan, and it could go any way at this point. THis thing is a long way from being over.

Tapper: It all depends who how much the margins pan out. If Cooper can get that margin under ten points, that minimises the damage he takes from tonight. If McMahon can get it under ten points, then that opens up a whole new can of worms on the Republican side.

Blitzer: Thank you Jake. We'll be back with our live coverage of the New Hampshire primary after this.

[GoTfan]

Blitzer: Welcome back to CNN's Election Center. The New Hampshire primary continues on, but John King is saying that there may be a call coming soon. Vice President Harris still in the lead over Governor Cooper, while the margin between former President Trump and Mr McMahon is continuing to close. John, how fqr off are from making our calls?

King: Honestly Wolf, not that far. The path for Cooper and McMahon is narrowing heavily, but if you're a supporter of these candidates, dn't get discouraged. Super Tuesday, as always, will tell all. Given some of the numbers I'm seeing in Super Tuesday states, the Democrats at least are going to have their primary go beyond that.

Wolf: Okay, thank you John. To reiterate, we are close to calling both races tonight. The issue is that Vice president Harris will have to see off both Governor Cooper and Secretary Kerry on Super Tuesday. Trump is likely to win most of the states on Super Tuesday, but it is unlikely that McMahon will simply admit defeat . . .  hold on, CNN as a key race alert . . . CNN can make a dual projection at this stage: Vice President Harris and former President Trump will win the New Hampshire pimrary for their parties.
 

Democratic New Hampshire primary (23 delegates)- 75% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 55.1%

Gov. Cooper 44.9%

New Hampshire Republican primary (22 delegates)- 75% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 57.6%

Mr McMahon: 42.4%

Blitzer: How were we able to make this call, John?

King: Well it's similar to Iowa. There are simply not enough votes left for the margins to be overcome. They might be able to shrink it a bit more, but they can't beat it. As I said earlier, if Cooper can get that margin under ten points, then he'll have mitigated some of the damage from the last week of the campaign. As for McMahon, he might nt be walking away with the win, but the momentum is clearly on his side.

Blitzer: Well there you have it; CNN is projecting that Vice President Kamala Harris has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary, and former President Donald Trump has won the Republican New Hampshire primary. Jake, what are you picking up from the campaign HQs?

Tapper: Well we can say that the Harris HQ in New Hampshire is jubilant at the moment; they were hoping the debate performance would deliver a decisive victory, and it looks like it has. Trump HQ; the mood is a bit muted. They seem to be realising that that this might be a long fight; and McMahon hasn't been put away just yet. It's much the same at Cooper headquarters; they took a blow tonight and realise that. Nothing from McMahon HQ yet, but you get the feeling that they would be even more jubilant than the Harris camp.

Blitzer: Thanks, Jake. To recap: Harris and Trump have won the Democratic and Republican New Hampshire primaries respectively. We'll be back soon enough to conclude our coverage.

[GoTfan]

Final New Hampshire results:

Democratic New Hampshire primary (23 delegates)- 100% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 54.9% (13 pledged delegates)

Gov. Cooper 45.1% (10 pledged delegates)


New Hampshire Republican primary (22 delegates)- 100% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 57.3% (13 pledged delegates)

Mr McMahon: 42.7% (9 pledged delegates)

Overall delegates:

Democratic Primary (2,266 required) :

Vice Pres. Harris: 35 pledged delegates

Gov. Cooper: 29 pledged delegates

Republican Primary (1,217 required) :

Fmr. Pres. Trump: 39 pledged delegates

Mr McMahon: 21 pledged delegates

Notes: Sorry for the hurried conclusion. Got some things happening at home.

[GoTfan]

February 4- February 10

Harris and Trump continue winning ways; Larry Hogan pondering run.

With the conclusion of the New Hampshire primary, the race has settled down slightly. While Vice president Harris and Former President Trump lead the race so far, many suspect that this was likely due to an almost perfect confluence of events. Harris's strong debate performance was able to give her a solid, if not decisive win in New Hampshire and with Cooper pulling out of Nevada to focus on South Carolina, Harris is seemingly assured of victory in the Silver State.

On the Republican side, momentum is clearly with Vince McMahon. Trump had a horror week, not attending the debate and being largely absent from the campaign trail. The former CEO of WWE had a truly excellent night in New Hampshire, achieving a truly massive swing in his favour, and cutting Trump's margin of victory considerably. McMahon will still likely struggle to produce a repeat performance in Nevada, given his comments on nuclear power, but South Carolina will tell all, particularly with McMahon surging in that state.

Of note is new of former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has recently convened an exploratory committee. Sources close to Hogan report that the former governor is alarmed at the choices Republicans have this year, and plans to run largely as an internal opposition candidate to the populism that pushes Trump and McMahon. it is unknown how his entry would affect the race.

Carter funeral solemn affair; eulogy delivered by President Biden.

The funeral of Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States was considered a solemn, respectful affair, as was to be expected. Even Republican candidate Vince McMahon was surprisingly restrained, seemingly reserving his more bombastic self for the campaign trail. In an act that has been roundly condemned, Trump failed to attend the funeral.

President Biden, a Senator under Carter during the late 1970s, delivered the eulogy for the former President. In a ten-minute address, Biden recounted Carter's fight for civil rights as Governor of Georgia, his acheivement with the Camp David Accords, and finally, Carter's long humanitarian work. Biden praised Carter as "One of the world's greatest humanitarians, who taught us all the value of peace in this world, kindness to each other, and basic human decency."

Humble to the end, Carter requested he be buried in hometown of Plains, Georgia. The only hints at the larger life he lived were the attendance of various powerful politicians, and the US Navy Honour Guard comprising of Commander Benjamin Grant and six other personnel of the USS Jimmy Carter.

Carter's funeral was concluded with a three-volley salute.

Dogfight over SCNA

Tammy Baldwin's Stop Corruption Now Act has entered into a dogfight in the Senate. Despite Mitch McConnell being reportedly inclined to refuse a vote on the bill, Republicans such as Josh Hawley and Joni Ernst are supposeldy willing to support the bill when it goes to the floor. At this stage, Senatr John Thune is reportedly urging McConnell to put the bill to the floor and stop it allowing Democrats to campaign on the issue going forward, with the Senate Majority Leader close to capitulating.

Sources say that the SCNA vote is likely to occur on February 6 if it does occur at all; the same day as the Nevada primary.

Notes:

-As always, the time for this turn will cmmence upon the posting of the polls and last for five days

-The Nevada primary occurs on February 6. Coverage will begin three days after the polls go up.

-Remember, the SCNA may be going to a Senate vote this turn, and it may depend on your actions.

[GoTfan]

Polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 41.8%

Governor Cooper: 37.5%

Secretary Kerry: 19.2%

Undecided: 1.4%


Nevada (final poll):


Vice President Harris: 45.9%


Governor Cooper: 41.2%


Undecided: 12.9%


South Carolina


Governor Cooper: 44.1%


Vice President Harris: 42.5%


Undecided: 13.4%


Republicans

Former President Trump: 57.4%


Mr McMahon: 22.9%


Undecided: 19.6%




Nevada (final poll) :


Former President Trump: 64.1%


Mr. McMahon: 14.3%


Undecided: 22.4%


South Carolina:


Former President Trump: 56.2%


Mr McMahon: 24.9%


Undecided: 18.9%

Current Delegates:

Democratic Primary (2,266 required)

Vice Pres. Harris: 35 pledged delegates

Gov. Cooper: 29 pledged delegates


Republican Primary (1,217 required)

Fmr. Pres. Trump: 39 pledged delegates

Mr. McMahon: 21 pledged delegates


Upcoming Primaries:

Nevada Primary, February 6 (this turn)

South Carolina Republican Primary, February 24

South Carolina Democratic Primary, March 2

Notes:

-Super Tuesday is March 5. Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will all be voting, which means a good chunk of delegates are up for grabs. I would advise your begin preparing, because polling for that will begin next turn.

[GoTfan]

Stop Corruption Now Act

Ayes: 50 (49 Democrat, 1 Republican)

Nays: 50 (all Republican)

Commentary:

Lester Holt: It seems that the Vice President will be required to break the tie . . .

Brett Baier: Lisa Murkowski, the sole Republican to vote in favour . . .

Anderson Cooper: We are on the verge of the most far-reaching oversight bill in history . . .

[GoTfan]

O'Donnell: Alright, welcome to CBS and our live coverage of the 2024 Nevada primary, I'm Norah O'Donnell. Now, earlier today, the Stop Corruption Now Act passed the Seante, but it is unlikely to even be brought up for a vote in the House; Speaker Kevin McCarthy not to keen on it, it seems.

With me in the studio tonight is John Dickerson. John, Roy Cooper seems to have largely withdrawn his efforts from Nevada in favour of pouring most of his resources into South Carolina. Can you walk us through that?

Dickerson: Certainly can Norah. Roy Cooper has a big advantage in South Carolina: his state is right next door. Now it's been said since the start of this campaign that Cooper's path to victory is running up the numbers in the south. In Nevada, it seems he has written off his chances of victory and is simply trying to avoid losing too much momentum before we head in to South Carolina and then onto Super Tuesday.

O'Donnell: And speaking of momentum, that at the moment is unequestionably with Vince McMahon on the campaign trail, right?

Dickerson: Absolutely. Trump has been largely absent from the campaign trail; reports say that perhaps a sense of inevitability about the FBI investigation is weighing him down.McMahon has had the trail largely to himself and he is making the most of it.

O'Donnell: Thank you for that John. Well, we have some early results coming in for both parties if we just take a look here . . .

Democratic Nevada primary (35 delegates)- <1% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 57.3%

Gov. Cooper 42.7%

Republican Nevada primary (25 delegates)- <1% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 67.4%

Mr McMahon: 32.6%

O'Donnell: There is not much that we can draw from this other than the fact that the early results are coming in strongly for both Harris and Trump. It still seems that McMahon's comments regarding nuclear energy are harming him in the western states.

Dickerson: Westerners have long memories, Norah, and they weren't likely to forget that in a hurry; Trump's surrogates have been hitting the Western states hard with that particular soundbite. McMahon does have a habit of overperforming the polls, but it will take a miracle for that gap to close as muhc as it did in New Hampshire.

O'Donnell: It has been said that New Hampshire on both sides was a perfect confluence of events on both sides. One thing that cannot be counted out is the fact that harris's debate performance is still making the rounds; her ground teams are repeating the soundbites from that debate as often and as loudly as they can.

Dickerson: Correct, but she needs to put Cooper away big time tonight. Cooper is still leading in the polls in South Carolina, and if Harris gets anything less than a knockout blow tonight, then she could be in trouble. Where it gets worrisome for her is if this drags on past Super Tuesday. If she doesn;t lock up the nomination quickly after that . . . well, we saw how quickly the Clinton campaign fell apart in 2008.

O'Donnell: There is also still the spectre of John Kerry to worry about, come Super Tuesday. Harris is going to need to rack up some big wins and New England is going to come in big for Kerry; at least that's what the indications are. We'll have more live coverage of the Nevada primary right after this.

[GoTfan]

O'Donnell: Welcome back to CBS's live coverage of the Nevada primary. At this stage, Vice President Harris and Former President Trump look to be having a relatively easy night, but we can't count anything out yet.

Dickerson: You're absolutely right, Norah. CBS cannot call the Nevada primary for any candidate just yet, but we think we might be getting close to a call for both. McMahon has been fighting hard for the Republicans, while Cooper as mentioned is refocusing his efforts on South Carolina. Considering that we're coming to the end of the opening contests, we will get a clearer picture before Super Tuesday.

O'Donnell: We certainly will. Let's just take a look at the vote count so far . . .

Democratic Nevada primary (35 delegates)- 25% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 57.6%

Gov. Cooper 42.4%

Republican Nevada primary (25 delegates)- 25% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 67.6%

Mr McMahon: 32.4%

O'Donnell: Interestingly, the results have largely stayed static so far. Undecideds don't seem to be breaking either way too significnatly. Bit of a difference to New Hampshire where they broke heavily for harris and McMahon. Again, the story of the night is that momentum on the Republican side is with the former CEO of WWE.

Dickerson: That is definitely the leading story of the Republican primary so far. Trump's absence from the trail as well as likely had an impact. The story on the Democratic side is that Harris is indeed the frontrunner for the noination at this stage, but she is having a harder fight of it than she imagined. Put simply, she needed a knockout punch tonight, and I don't think she'll get it to the extent she needs, especially with John Kerry's numbers in New England.

O'Donnell: We'll be back after this.

[GoTfan]

i
O'Donnell: The night goes on and so does the vote counting in Nevada. We should be able to make a projection shortly for both sides. On that note John, we normally would've called the Republican race a while ago. Why is that not the case now?


Dickerson: In a word, caution. McMahon has a habit of making late surges, so there's a sizable element of caution there. That said, i will be very surprised if there's not a call very soon. Same goes for the Democrats. Cooper's surrogates in-state struggle dto get their funds together when he desiced to go all in on South Carolina.

O'Donnell: Hang on . . . yes, okay, CBS has dual projections to make. Vice President Kamala Harris will take the Nevada Democratic primary. She is joined in victory by Former President Donald Trum

Democratic Nevada primary (35 delegates)- 50% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 57.5%

Gov. Cooper 42.5%

Republican Nevada primary (25 delegates)- 50% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 67.2%

Mr McMahon: 32.8%

O'Donnell: Numbers have interestingly remained pretty static for the entire night, There has been relatively little movement. John, this might be down to Nevada become increasingly like a swing state over the years, right?

Dickerson: Absolutely Norah. We saw just two years ago when Catherine Cortez-Masto won a close election to keep the Democrats competitive in the Senate, and primary electorates are usually a good indicator of which way the party is leading, especially in a state like Nevada. Nomatter what happens, South Carolina and Super Tuesday will be interesting.

O'Donnell: They certainly will. To retirerate, CBS is projecting that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are the winners of the Nevada primary for the Democratic and Republican parties. We'll be back with more results; so don;t go anywhere.

[GoTfan]

i
O'Donnell: Well, thw winners have been projected, but counting goes on in the 2024 Nevada primaries. DOnald Trump and Kamala Harris have emerged as the victors of tonight, but we're waiting to see how the delegates shake out. Remember, the magic number is 2,266 for the Democrats and 1,217 for the Republicans.

Dickerson: At this stage, it's hard to argue that Harris and Trump don't have the upper hand, but the problem is that they might've allowed their opponents too much freedom in the early stages of the campaign. We saw that at play in Iowa for the Democrats and New Hampshire for the Republicans; what happens on Super Tuesday is going to be a contest, that's for sure.

O'Donnell: No doubt. Currently with around 75% of the vote counted, the numbers have remained rather static . . .

Democratic Nevada primary (35 delegates)- 75% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 57.2%

Gov. Cooper 42.8%

Republican Nevada primary (25 delegates)- 75% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 67.1%

Mr McMahon: 32.9%

Dickerson: That's actually interesting; the numbers have stayed close t what they started at. It does seem that there was an element of the vote that was baked in for all candidates tonight. I dubt McMahon's comments about nuclear power helped him much in the West, and I think that Cooper's vampaign might be shaping up to be like Thomas Dewey's in 1944; so aggressive it's turning people away.

O'Donnell: It will certainly be something to keep an eye on. Cooper hasn't toned down his attacks either; he's doubling down on his aggressive strategy in South Carolina, and the narrative is that he will need to win there if he is to keep his campaign alive. We'll be back with more coverage after this.

[GoTfan]

O'Donnell: Well, the last of th votes are being c**nted in the Nevada primary, and we can cnclude that Vice President Harris and Former President Trump have won sizable victories, both of which will be sorely needed in the weeks ahead. The delegates are as follows . . .

Democratic Nevada primary (35 delegates)- 100% reporting

Vice Pres. Harris: 57.3% (20 delegates)

Gov. Cooper 42.7% (15 delegates)

Republican Nevada primary (25 delegates)- 100% reporting

Fmr Pres. Trump: 67.2% (17 delegates)

Mr McMahon: 32.8% (8 delegates)

O'Donnell: As we can see, resounding victories for both of the frontrunners. But the question is whether Mcmahon's charge has been halted. We knew the Western states would be good fr Trump after McMahon's nuclear power comments, but McMahon has, once again, outperformed the polls.

Dickerson: Exactly. And we have an interesting clash in South Carolina for the Democrats as well. Cooper is ahead at the moment, and he'll be hoping for a win to keep his campaign alive, given how close he was to an upset in Iowa. Harris is going to have a hard fight to put him away on Super Tuesday.

O'Donnell: That concludes CBS's election coverage for tonight. From John, myself and everyone else at CBS, goodnight.

[GoTfan]

February 11- February 17

First Three Primaries Done; What Now?

Harris and Trump have continued their winning ways on the campaign trail despite Trump's absence from it. Both candidates won convincing victories in Nevada over Roy Cooper and Vince McMahon respectively. All candidates will likely no be preparing for the South Carolina primary; the Republicans are schedule to hold theirs on the 24th, with the Democrats to follow on the 2nd of March before both parties go to the polls for Super Tuesday on the 5th of March.

South Carolina will be telling. Another good showing from McMahon could put an end to Trump's momentum going forward and possibly help him clear the field of opposing candidates. On the Democratci side, Cooper has managed to stubbornly cling onto his lead in the state. A win from the North Carolina Governor would no doubt bolster his campaign just 72 hours from Super Tuesday.

No matter what, the South Carolina primary promises to be an eventful affair for both sides. President Biden is still refusing to endorse any candidate, weighing in that "Democrats have three fine candidates for President this year."

What's Happening In Russia?

Russia's international isolation over the last two years has not been a secret. The swiftness with which the Russian economy was cut off from the outside world has been unique, and acheived the oone thing analysts predicted Putin feared the most: a reinvigoration of the NATO alliance. On a more practical level, Ukraine's victories over Russian reportedly triggered 'severe alarm' inside Russia's upper political echelons.

With seemingly universal support to accelerate the timeline for Ukraine's accession to NATO in the wake of the Sevastopol Treaty, it would appear Vladimir Putin has dealt himself a political blow that will take decades for his successors to recover from.

That's assuming it doesn't happen soon.

Putin has not been seen in public since the signing of the Treaty earlier his year, nor has there been video footage of him. Most of his statements are being delivered by spokespeople or simply transmitted as text across Russia's state TV networks.

With Putin not seen in public, and with the Russian Presidential election looming this March, many are asking the question of what is happening inside Russia.


McCarthy Blocks SCNA; Ocasio-Cortez Returns

The Stop Corruption Now Act, which passed the Senate on February 6th due to a tiebreaker vote cast by Kamala Harris, has hit a brick wall. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has refused to allow the bill to come to the floor, labelling it a "Tool for the radical left to persecute its political opponents."

The result is that the bill has effectively died before reaching the flor of the House. Many Democrats have decried McCarthy as afraid of having a history of insider trading come to light for himself and Republican House leadership. Katie Porter, running for the Senate this year in California, echoed the feelings of many Democrats when she said "Perhaps the Speaker should give us something to work with instead of blocking credible investigations."

Meanwhile, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has returned to work after what is being described as an attempted assassination some time ago. Ocasio-Cortez has been surprisingly quiet since her return, a sharp contrast to her normal fiery persona, with one anonymous source saying "Her personality's totally changed . . . it's like she's a completely different person since that day."

Notes:

-As always, the time for this turn will commence upon the posting of the polls and last for five days

-The first State of the Race post will go up this turn as well. This will basically say where each candidate is at and provide some intel for them going forward so I strongly suggest that you read it carefully.

[GoTfan]

Polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 42%

Governor Cooper: 37.4%

Secretary Kerry: 20.1%

Undecided: 0.5%





South Carolina


Governor Cooper: 44.3%


Vice President Harris: 42.1%


Undecided: 13.6%


Republicans

Former President Trump: 54.7%


Mr McMahon: 27.2%


Undecided: 18.2%


South Carolina:


Former President Trump: 53.6%


Mr McMahon: 28.9%


Undecided: 18.9%


Current Delegates:


Democratic Primary (2,266 required)

Vice Pres. Harris: 55 pledged delegates

Gov. Cooper: 44 pledged delegates


Republican Primary (1,217 required)

Fmr. Pres. Trump: 56 pledged delegates

Mr. McMahon: 29 pledged delegates


Upcoming Primaries:

South Carolina Republican Primary, February 24

South Carolina Democratic Primary, March 2


Super Tuesday race stauses:

Democratic contests

Alabama: Lean Harris

American Samoa: Harris/Kerry tossup

Arkansas: Tilt Cooper

California: Solid Harris

Colorado: Cooper/Harris tossup

Maine: Kerry/Harris tossup

Massachusetts: Likely Kerry

Minnesota: Tilt Harris

North Carolina: Solid Cooper

Oklahoma: Harris/Cooper tossup

Tennessee: Tilt Cooper

Texas: Harris/Cooper tossup

Utah: Lean Harris

Vermont: Harris/Kerry tossup

Virginia: Tilt Cooper


Republican contests

Alabama: Likely Trump

Alaska: Lean Trump

Arkansas: Lean Trump

California: Lean Trump

Colorado: Tilt Trump

Maine: Lean Trump

Massachusetts: Lean Trump

Minnesota: Lean Trump

Oklahoma: Tilt Trump

Tennessee: Lean Trump

Texas: Lean Trump

Utah: Lean Trump

Vermont: Lean Trump

Virginia: Lean Trump

Notes:

-Second reminder that Super Tuesday is March 5. Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will all be voting, which means a good chunk of delegates are up for grabs.

[GoTfan]

State of the Race



Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris started this race as the odds-on favourite to win the Democratic nomination; the first sitting Vice President to do so since Al Gore over twenty years ago. However, a series of miscommunications, rapid turnover of campaign staffers, and reports of discord within the campaign caused her numbers to fall. Particularly alarming was the period of time she spent away from the campaign trail, allowing Roy Cooper to close the sizable polling gap between them.

Harris is nothing if not a fighter though, and she has managed to string together wins in all three early primaries, overcoming a mighty scare from Cooper in Iowa before a terrific debate performance delivered her good victory margins in New Hampshire and Nevada. Indeed, she may've been able to lock up the nomination by Super Tuesday before John Kerry entered the race. Much of Harris's support seems to be coming from Hochul supporters, a smattering of Baldwin supporters, and those who supported her superior's campagn in 2020, who seem to lining up behind the Vice President after a brief scare following her absence from the campaign. Try as they might, Cooper and Kerry will likely be unable to compete with Harris on the field of insitutional support.

Roy Cooper

Not that long ago, Roy Cooper looked like he might be able to sweep out the nomination from under Harris. The North Carolina Governor has run a hard-hitting campaign that has pulled few punches and is aggressively targeting Harris's weaknesses, and is reportedly striking a chord with people who are dissatisfied with the Vice President's candidacy, an remember the last time that the Democrats had a coronation for a sitting VP in 2000.

However, a string of events have brought Cooper's momentum to a screeching halt. After being able to claim a near-tie in Iowa, Cooper hit a brick wall consisting of a strong debate performance from Harris and a growing perception that he was overly focused on the marijuana issue. The latter has contributed to an image of Cooper being a one-issue candidate. Nonetheless, Cooper looks likely to take South Carolina at this stage, which given its status as being just 72 hours from Super Tuesday, is likely to give some very positive headlines for him.

John Kerry

The wildcard. John Kerry was a surprise late entry into the race for the nomination, but one who interestingly, hasn't been instantly tossed aside. He is undoubtedly the candidate with the longest and most impressive resume: Military service in Vietnam, time as an Assistant District Attorney, Lieutenant-Governor of Massachussetts, a Senator fort nearly thirty years including time as Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State for four years and most recently, the Special Envoy for Climate.

Kerry will likely take New England on Super Tuesday, and has attempted to brand himself as the champion of the party's progressive wing, a strategy that is meeting with some, if limited, success. His biggest obstacles are his 2004 defeat, his long Senate career, and his advanced age. Kerry's long time in the Senate means that he will likely be tarred with any unpopular votes he made, and there is simply no avoiding the fact that the 79-year-old Kerry is one of the oldest candidates to take the Presidential field, and will be over 80 on inauguration day. he will have to overcome both of these concerns if he is to have a chance.

Donald Trump

Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, a race that has tightened in previous weeks due to Trump's lack of activity on the campaign trail. This rather light to nonexistent campaign schedule has played right into McMahon's hands, as he brands the former president of being unable to cope with the stresses of a second full term. Reportedly, even many of the President's former supporters are even going over to McMahon, viewing him as their new champion in light of Trump's supposed 'selling out'.

That said, a peculiar situation has developed for Trump, as the Republican establishment, fearful that McMahon would lose a winnable election, have virtually guaranteed Trump their support. This reconciling of bitter foes was unexpected by most people, yet perhaps it is one of pure pragmatism. Trump in many Republican leaders' eyes, remains their best chance at taking back the White House. If he is to put down a fighter like Vince McMahon though, it will likely take a crushing victory on Super Tuesday.

Vince McMahon

The former Chair and CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment entered the race as a no-hoper. Early stages of the campaign seemed to see the man treating the whole thing as a wrestling promo, with predictable results. Comments over nuclear power cratered any support he had in the western states, particularly Nevada and Arizona, and many reported his campaign to be flailing even before anyone had voted for him.

But then a change happened. McMahon seemed to settle down slightly and treat the campaign with appropriate seriousness. His sedate behaviour at the funeral of Jimmy Carter in particular was praised, especially in light of Trump's failure to show up. He began attacking Republican orthodoxy over energy and tax cuts, winning over the grassroots with his points about the uselessness of denying an energy transition and that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act favoured the wealthy. This has seemingly been proven in recent result, where McMahon has routinely outperformed polling by wide margins and forced many organisations to adjust on the fly. It will take one hell of an effort to overtake Trump though.

Summary

We at PBS largely predict that we are still heading for a Trump-Harris matchup, but there remains the distinct possibility of Roy Cooper or John Kerry snatching the nomination out from under Harris, while Vince McMahon's overperformance of polls is likely worrying many in the Trump campaign, Super Tuesday will likely tell more.

[GoTfan]

February 18-24, 2024

Trump Family Subpoenaed: Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka and Lara to Appear Before Grand Jury

Just as Donald Trump's campaign seemed to be gaining steam, it has been rocked again. Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump and Lara Trump have all been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury for actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Though the scope is limited due to Republican control of Congress, Attorne-General Merrick Garland is seemingly wielding his powers has the country's chief law enforcer freely when it comes to the Trump family.

THis is likely to cause consternation for many within the Trump campaign, who may see this as a prime example of the former President's vulnerability in a general election this year. The McMahon campaign by contrast, must be overjoyed, having likely been counting on a break like this to cover the polling gap between the two Republican candidates.

Democrats meanwhile are making hay with the issue. Several Democrats have again been saying that this will likely precede a criminal prosecution for at least someone in the Trump family, a reality that many legal experts say is getting closer and closer each day. It is currently unknown how this will affect the campaign in the long run.

Purin Reappears, Announces Retirement From Politics

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, made a startling announcement today.

The man respnsible for the war in Ukraine stated in a live broadcast on state TV that he was withdrawing his candidacy from the 2024 Russian presidential election, due to take place in the coming March, and his retirement overall from politics. Putin was noticeably haggard in appearance when making the address as well.

Putin has been a fixture in Russian politics since his surprising appointment as Prime Minister by Boris Yeltsin, followed by a succession to the Presidency shortly after. For a time, it seemed as though his policies had resulted in a Russian rennaissance, with the economy and standard of living greatly improving. However, his authoritarian domestic policies and military adventurism caused many in the world to view him with caution, before his invasions of Ukraine resulted in Russia being isolated from the world. For better orworse, his departure from the stage marks a new era in Russia and the world.

Puting endorsed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as his successor.

Mental Health Crisis in Schools

Mental health for teenagers has come into focus recently following the suicide of a 16 year old girl in Durham, North Carolina due to depression. Mental health in schools in particular has been focused on, especially alarming rates of depression and anxiety emerging nt just from vulnerable groups, such as the LGBTQ+ and African-American communities, but increasingly in rural areas as well.

"There's just not enough of the right resources," one source was quoted as saying, "More money alone won't resolve the issue. THese are out kids dying here, and there's nothing we can do about that?"

President Biden has paid a visit to the girl's family, and has opened up about his own mental health struggles in the aftermath of the deaths of his first wife and daghter in a car crash in 1972, just after he was elected to the United States Senate for the first time. "Mental health is just as important as physical health. This is a startling and unwelcome reminder of that key precept."

[GoTfan]

Polls

Democrats

Vice President Harris: 42.1%

Governor Cooper: 37.2%

Secretary Kerry: 20.2%

Undecided: 0.5%





South Carolina


Governor Cooper: 44.7%


Vice President Harris: 41.9%


Undecided: 13.4%


Republicans

Former President Trump: 52.3%


Mr McMahon: 31.6%


Undecided: 16.1%


South Carolina:


Former President Trump: 52.1%


Mr McMahon: 30.4%


Undecided: 17.5%


Current Delegates:


Democratic Primary (2,266 required)

Vice Pres. Harris: 55 pledged delegates

Gov. Cooper: 44 pledged delegates


Republican Primary (1,217 required)

Fmr. Pres. Trump: 56 pledged delegates

Mr. McMahon: 29 pledged delegates


Upcoming Primaries:

South Carolina Republican Primary, February 24 (end of this turn)

South Carolina Democratic Primary, March 2


Super Tuesday race stauses:

Democratic contests

Alabama: Lean Harris

American Samoa: Tilt Kerry

Arkansas: Tilt Cooper

California: Safe Harris

Colorado: Tilt Harris

Maine: Tilt Kerry

Massachusetts: Likely Kerry

Minnesota: Tilt Harris

North Carolina: Solid Cooper

Oklahoma: Tilt Cooper

Tennessee: Tilt Cooper

Texas: Harris/Cooper tossup

Utah: Lean Harris

Vermont: Harris/Kerry tossup

Virginia: Tilt Cooper


Republican contests

Alabama: Likely Trump

Alaska: Lean Trump

Arkansas: Lean Trump

California: Lean Trump

Colorado: Tilt Trump

Maine: Tilt Trump

Massachusetts: Lean Trump

Minnesota: Lean Trump

Oklahoma: Tossup

Tennessee: Lean Trump

Texas: Lean Trump

Utah: Lean Trump

Vermont: Lean Trump

Virginia: Tilt Trump

Notes:

-Third reminder that Super Tuesday is March 5. Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia will all be voting, which means a good chunk of delegates are up for grabs.