1976: Ronald Reagan the Republican nominee

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Would he do better or worse than Carter?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Comes down to whether he can flip OH

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

I meant whether or not Reagan would do better than Ford

[dw93]

I meant whether or not Reagan would do better than Ford

I think he does better than Ford in the South, but worse in the North. Carter wins with a map along these lines:



Reagan after the loss is viewed as Goldwater 2.0 and a more moderate Republican (HW Bush, or Howard Baker perhaps) gets nominated in 1980 and defeats Carter with ease.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

The keys to this would be Pennsylvania and Ohio. 

Reagan stated that his pick for VP was PA Senator Richard Schweiker, a moderate-to-liberal Republican.  This pick MIGHT have swung PA for Reagan, although (possibly) at the cost of a few Southern states.

The other critical state would have been next-door Ohio, which was more Democratic and unionized then than now, and Labor Unions had been the key to a number of Ohio Democratic victories.

I do believe that Carter would have flipped Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, and Connecticut, due to labor unions.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

[Alben Barkley]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

Why would Reagan beat Carter in 1976 in Southern states he could barely even win in 1980 like KY, TN, NC, MS?

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

Why would Reagan beat Carter in 1976 in Southern states he could barely even win in 1980 like KY, TN, NC, MS?

MS at least was already close in actual 1976, and Reagan is arguably a better fit for the South than Ford. Not sure about NC and TN, I just thought Reagan was a good fit here, too. He'd still narrowly win without them, and there's a decent chance he takes OH as well (not MI though).

[President Johnson]

America wasn't ready for Reagan in 1976. He would have lost by somewhat more than Ford.



✓ Former Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN): 318 EV. (50.73%)
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 220 EV. (47.26%)

[Alben Barkley]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

Why would Reagan beat Carter in 1976 in Southern states he could barely even win in 1980 like KY, TN, NC, MS?

MS at least was already close in actual 1976, and Reagan is arguably a better fit for the South than Ford. Not sure about NC and TN, I just thought Reagan was a good fit here, too. He'd still narrowly win without them, and there's a decent chance he takes OH as well (not MI though).

MS was (and is) extremely inelastic and had a very high floor for Carter; that's why its results barely budged from 1976 to 1980 regardless of Reagan being a better "fit" or not, causing it to actually trend sharply left despite flipping.

And Ford lost NC and TN by double digits, KY by high single digits, while Reagan just barely won them all by about a point or so in 1980 under much better conditions for a Republican and, as you say, being a better "fit" as a candidate. There is just no realistic way Reagan, or any Republican, wins all these states against Carter in 1976. I doubt he wins any of them to be honest.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

Why would Reagan beat Carter in 1976 in Southern states he could barely even win in 1980 like KY, TN, NC, MS?

MS at least was already close in actual 1976, and Reagan is arguably a better fit for the South than Ford. Not sure about NC and TN, I just thought Reagan was a good fit here, too. He'd still narrowly win without them, and there's a decent chance he takes OH as well (not MI though).

MS was (and is) extremely inelastic and had a very high floor for Carter; that's why its results barely budged from 1976 to 1980 regardless of Reagan being a better "fit" or not, causing it to actually trend sharply left despite flipping.

And Ford lost NC and TN by double digits, KY by high single digits, while Reagan just barely won them all by about a point or so in 1980 under much better conditions for a Republican and, as you say, being a better "fit" as a candidate. There is just no realistic way Reagan, or any Republican, wins all these states against Carter in 1976. I doubt he wins any of them to be honest.

What do you think of my map

[Alben Barkley]

Hot take: Raygun wins.

I just think he would have done sightly better in the deciding states and his outsider image would have helped him a lot. Incumbency was possibly a net negative in 1976, and Ford almost pulled it off despite his lack of charisma. I know, this is not how presidents should be picked, but that's how it usually is.



✓ Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 293 EVs.; 49.4%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 245 EVs.; 49.2%

Why would Reagan beat Carter in 1976 in Southern states he could barely even win in 1980 like KY, TN, NC, MS?

MS at least was already close in actual 1976, and Reagan is arguably a better fit for the South than Ford. Not sure about NC and TN, I just thought Reagan was a good fit here, too. He'd still narrowly win without them, and there's a decent chance he takes OH as well (not MI though).

MS was (and is) extremely inelastic and had a very high floor for Carter; that's why its results barely budged from 1976 to 1980 regardless of Reagan being a better "fit" or not, causing it to actually trend sharply left despite flipping.

And Ford lost NC and TN by double digits, KY by high single digits, while Reagan just barely won them all by about a point or so in 1980 under much better conditions for a Republican and, as you say, being a better "fit" as a candidate. There is just no realistic way Reagan, or any Republican, wins all these states against Carter in 1976. I doubt he wins any of them to be honest.

What do you think of my map

Not impossible. Neither is President Johnson's though. My own map with toss-ups would probably be:

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

One of the facts that Reagan would have to deal with was that in the General Election he would have to run on the Republican Record of Nixon and Ford.  Reagan was practically the Master of Ceremonies of the 1972 Republican National Convention and some of the biggest negatives of Ford (support for Nixon, the Nixon Pardon, opposition of a number of stimulus programs that had popularity with some voters) were negatives Reagan owned as well. 

At a certain point, CANDIDATE Reagan would have had to answer for why he primaried a President with whom he agreed on a lot.  He would have to defend his pick of Richard Schweiker (a moderately liberal Republican) in light of the fact that Reaganites brought about Ford's dumping of Nelson Rockefelller.  That's the problem when you primary an incumbent Governor or President; you have to run on THEIR executive record because it is the party's record, like it or not.