OH-SEN 2024: Sherrod Brown (D) vs J. D. Vance (R)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

In a hypothetical scenario, Trump endorses Gibbons who goes on to win the primary in 2022 and beat Ryan by 10 points.
The 2024 primary has Vance going up against Mandel (again) as well as Rep. David Joyce. He wins the primary and goes up against Sherrod Brown.
J. D. Vance hammers Brown on being soft on immigration, attacks him for being a "career politician" and outflanks him on trade. He also campaigns as a centre-leftist on economics, promising to raise taxes on the rich, break up/fight corporations, fund social security and increase access to healthcare.
Brown attacks Vance for flip-flopping, being a "fake populist" and for his ties to Peter Thiel.

Who wins in this battle of the populists and what is the margin? (Trump is also running on the presidential ticket against Biden simultaneously)

[Vice President Christian Man]

This is tough to predict. A generic D would more or less be DOA in 2024 unless Biden revives manufacturing in the state which seems unlikely, but Brown is popular, even with some Republicans, as he outperformed Romney and DeWine respectfully. I'd predict it would a 50-50 scenario at this rate and I believe if Biden wins re-election, Brown will win regardless of who wins Ohio, but if Biden loses, more likely than not Brown might lose with him, but I doubt he'd lose by more than 1-2% unless it's a total senate washout.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Democratic nominee would need to win Ohio by at least seven points for Brown to win his Senate race in 2024.