Who won whites without a college education in 1968-2012?

[darklordoftech]

?

[Matty]

the winner of every election 1968-2004

2008 mccain

2012 romney

[Bootes Void]

Republicans won in every yet fairly easily except for 1976(not sure if Carter won it) and maybe 1996(though I think Dole won it)

[Alben Barkley]

Based on Roper Center data (which only goes back to 1976), I would infer:

Carter won it in 1976 (Ford won white vote by 4 points overall, but Carter's support was concentrated in less educated white areas in the South and across the country, suggesting Ford's narrow lead probably came from college educated whites.)

Reagan won it in 1980 (victory was too overwhelming among whites as a whole).

Won it again in 1984 (same).

Bush in 1988 for same reason, though probably closer and Bush clearly lost it badly in some states like Iowa and West Virginia.

Bush only won whites by 2 points in 1992; almost certainly Clinton won whites without a degree that year. Perot likely got a decent chunk of their support too.

Dole also won whites as a whole by only 2 points in 1996, again easy to assume Clinton won whites without a degree.

2000 was a big shift in which they stopped being as competitive a group; Republicans have won them every election since then, by increasingly large margins.

I would also guess that Nixon won them in 1968 and 1972, though Wallace got a big chunk of their vote in 1968 and Humphrey was no slouch (especially in the Midwest and Northeast) either.

[Mr. Smith]

Except for '92 and '76, likely every Republican comfortably.

[Alben Barkley]

Except for '92 and '76, likely every Republican comfortably.

There is no reason to assume this about '96, when in many WWC counties (especially in the Midwest) Perot's support tanked and Clinton won blowouts. Including some places Democrats haven't even been competitive in since. And again, Dole just barely won the white vote as a whole and at that time, WWC leaned more Dem than college whites. Meanwhile Clinton maintained strong support in some of the whitest, least educated states in the South like Arkansas, West Virginia, and Tennessee, which are now Trump strongholds.

Also: I should add that while McCain clearly won non-college whites in 2008, Obama did very well with them in the Midwest and Northeast, possibly won them outright (clearly did in certain states like WI and IA). Again to a slightly lesser extent against Romney in 2012. He just also got blown out among them in the South.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Except for '92 and '76, likely every Republican comfortably.

There is no reason to assume this about '96, when in many WWC counties (especially in the Midwest) Perot's support tanked and Clinton won blowouts. Including some places Democrats haven't even been competitive in since. And again, Dole just barely won the white vote as a whole and at that time, WWC leaned more Dem than college whites. Meanwhile Clinton maintained strong support in some of the whitest, least educated states in the South like Arkansas, West Virginia, and Tennessee, which are now Trump strongholds.

Also: I should add that while McCain clearly won non-college whites in 2008, Obama did very well with them in the Midwest and Northeast, possibly won them outright (clearly did in certain states like WI and IA). Again to a slightly lesser extent against Romney in 2012. He just also got blown out among them in the South.

Obama probably won non college whites outside the south in 2008

[Alben Barkley]

Except for '92 and '76, likely every Republican comfortably.

There is no reason to assume this about '96, when in many WWC counties (especially in the Midwest) Perot's support tanked and Clinton won blowouts. Including some places Democrats haven't even been competitive in since. And again, Dole just barely won the white vote as a whole and at that time, WWC leaned more Dem than college whites. Meanwhile Clinton maintained strong support in some of the whitest, least educated states in the South like Arkansas, West Virginia, and Tennessee, which are now Trump strongholds.

Also: I should add that while McCain clearly won non-college whites in 2008, Obama did very well with them in the Midwest and Northeast, possibly won them outright (clearly did in certain states like WI and IA). Again to a slightly lesser extent against Romney in 2012. He just also got blown out among them in the South.

Obama probably won non college whites outside the south in 2008

Possibly... It might well be so close it comes down to whether or not you count Missouri as "the South" or not lol

The fact that he was able to win Indiana and come close to winning states like MO and MT, and even put up a good fight in states like the Dakotas, certainly shows that he was the last Democrat who was at least remotely competitive with non-college Whites outside the South... but at the same time he was also the FIRST Democrat to absolutely crash and burn among them IN the South, losing many ancestrally D counties there which even Kerry had carried relatively comfortably, and states where which polls showed Hillary beating out McCain comfortably at the exact same time they showed Obama getting thrashed.

This fact alone is actually some of the best evidence for why the "Racism had nothing to do with people hating Obama!" argument falls flat.