RRusso1982
Rookie
Posts: 207
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« on: April 07, 2022, 12:02:16 PM » |
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« edited: April 07, 2022, 02:02:12 PM by RRusso1982 »
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An the aftermath of the first Gulf War, when George HW Bush looked invincible, all the big name Democrats like Lloyd Bentsen, Dick Gephardt, Jay Rockefeller, Al Gore, and Bill Bradley all fairly quickly announced they weren't running. All the candidates who were running looked like second tier candidates. Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin, Jerry Brown, Doug Wilder. Mario Cuomo was the only big name Democrat who would not rule it out entirely. As Bush's approvals started returning to earth during the fall of 1991, Cuomo started toying with running. He kept toying with it up until the absolute last minute possible before announcing he wouldn't run on the day of the filing deadline for New Hampshire in 1991. Do you think he would have won if he had ran?
I think if Cuomo had run, he very likely would have been the nominee. Polls showed him easily leading all the other candidates. Also, look at what Bill Clinton had to go through in order to win the nomination after Cuomo announced he wasn't running. Clinton was the strongest non Cuomo candidate. The Iowa caucuses were ceded to Harkin, making New Hampshire High Noon. Then the Gennifer Flowers scandal broke and just after that, the draft dodger story broke. Clinton fell way behind. He was able to frame a 7 point loss to Tsongas in New Hampshire as a moral victory. Then he came back and won South Carolina and all the Southern primaries. Then he finished off Tsongas in Michigan and Illinois. Then out of nowhere, Jerry Brown beat Clinton in the Connecticut primary. That started talk of another candidate jumping in to pick up the pieces if Brown beat Clinton in New York as well. Cuomo was mentioned as a possible candidate. Tsongas said he would get back in if Clinton lost New York. Clinton then won New York big and wrapped up the nomination, and fell way behind Bush in polls. Some had him 3rd behind Perot. The Democrats thought they were stuck with a loser. Clinton's numbers on character and trustworthiness were brutal. It wasn't until that summer that the Democrats began to realize they might actually have a winner on their hands.
The fact is, Clinton only won the nomination because the Democrats did not have a broadly acceptable alternative to rally around. At several points during the primaries, they wanted to stop the Clinton express only to return with their tail between their legs. Cuomo would have changed that dynamic. He would come in as the early frontrunner and only a few weeks later, his closest rival would be engulfed in scandal.
If Cuomo was the nominee, I don't think he would have had as easy a time as Clinton did against Bush. Clinton won by running as a conservative Democrat. Bush was unpopular, but the Republican attack machine really knew how to attack liberals, like they did in 1984 and 1988. Bush was certainly much more vulnerable in 1992 than in 1988, to say nothing of Reagan in 1984. But the Republican attack machine had a lot to work with against Cuomo. Crime was a big issue in 1992. It would be a big problem that Cuomo was very much against the death penalty. It is possible Cuomo still would have won, but it would have been a close race.
Any thoughts?
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