What if Mario Cuomo ran for President in 1992?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:32:00 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if Mario Cuomo ran for President in 1992?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What if Mario Cuomo ran for President in 1992?  (Read 1804 times)
RRusso1982
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 07, 2022, 12:02:16 PM »
« edited: April 07, 2022, 02:02:12 PM by RRusso1982 »

An the aftermath of the first Gulf War, when George HW Bush looked invincible, all the big name Democrats like Lloyd Bentsen, Dick Gephardt, Jay Rockefeller, Al Gore, and Bill Bradley all fairly quickly announced they weren't running. All the candidates who were running looked like second tier candidates. Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin, Jerry Brown, Doug Wilder. Mario Cuomo was the only big name Democrat who would not rule it out entirely. As Bush's approvals started returning to earth during the fall of 1991, Cuomo started toying with running. He kept toying with it up until the absolute last minute possible before announcing he wouldn't run on the day of the filing deadline for New Hampshire in 1991. Do you think he would have won if he had ran?

I think if Cuomo had run, he very likely would have been the nominee.  Polls showed him easily leading all the other candidates.  Also, look at what Bill Clinton had to go through in order to win the nomination after Cuomo announced he wasn't running.  Clinton was the strongest non Cuomo candidate.  The Iowa caucuses were ceded to Harkin, making New Hampshire High Noon.  Then the Gennifer Flowers scandal broke and just after that, the draft dodger story broke.  Clinton fell way behind.  He was able to frame a 7 point loss to Tsongas in New Hampshire as a moral victory.  Then he came back and won South Carolina and all the Southern primaries.  Then he finished off Tsongas in Michigan and Illinois.  Then out of nowhere, Jerry Brown beat Clinton in the Connecticut primary.  That started talk of another candidate jumping in to pick up the pieces if Brown beat Clinton in New York as well.  Cuomo was mentioned as a possible candidate.  Tsongas said he would get back in if Clinton lost New York.  Clinton then won New York big and wrapped up the nomination, and fell way behind Bush in polls.  Some had him 3rd behind Perot.  The Democrats thought they were stuck with a loser.  Clinton's numbers on character and trustworthiness were brutal.  It wasn't until that summer that the Democrats began to realize they might actually have a winner on their hands.

The fact is, Clinton only won the nomination because the Democrats did not have a broadly acceptable alternative to rally around.  At several points during the primaries, they wanted to stop the Clinton express only to return with their tail between their legs.  Cuomo would have changed that dynamic.  He would come in as the early frontrunner and only a few weeks later, his closest rival would be engulfed in scandal.

If Cuomo was the nominee, I don't think he would have had as easy a time as Clinton did against Bush.  Clinton won by running as a conservative Democrat.  Bush was unpopular, but the Republican attack machine really knew how to attack liberals, like they did in 1984 and 1988.  Bush was certainly much more vulnerable in 1992 than in 1988, to say nothing of Reagan in 1984.  But the Republican attack machine had a lot to work with against Cuomo.  Crime was a big issue in 1992.  It would be a big problem that Cuomo was very much against the death penalty.  It is possible Cuomo still would have won, but it would have been a close race.

Any thoughts?
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2022, 12:33:29 PM »

Keep in mind Clinton won the tipping point state by less than 5 points and that was with Clinton basically making the old Republican playbook irrelevant and HW not being a good on the fly campaigner . On the other hand Cuomo would very much be vulnerable to that Republican playbook and HW was a very very good campaigner when he was able to use a a time and tested playbook which he would be Cuomo .
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2022, 01:33:18 PM »

Yeah, Cuomo would be the establishment's Stop Clinton pick in the same way Biden was the future Clintonite establishment's Stop Sanders candidate. The consensus on this forum seems to be that Cuomo wins but doesn't expand the map as much.


President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX) / Fmr. Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL)
Logged
RRusso1982
Rookie
**
Posts: 207
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2022, 02:05:37 PM »

Clinton only won Ohio very narrowly.  Not sure Cuomo would have won it.  Definitely not Tennessee.  It was Al Gore's home state.  Clinton winning it had as much to do with Clinton as with Gore.  Not sure about Missouri either.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2022, 03:17:19 PM »

Clinton only won Ohio very narrowly.

Would actually be an easier win for a more generic Democrat at that time.

Not sure Cuomo would have won it.  Definitely not Tennessee.  It was Al Gore's home state.  Clinton winning it had as much to do with Clinton as with Gore.  Not sure about Missouri either.

An improvement on Dukakis' margins would be enough for Missouri, but also:

Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN)
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,581
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2022, 03:20:12 PM »

He would have won the general election. Not sure whether he would have clinched the nomination though.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2022, 12:10:06 AM »

He would have won the general election. Not sure whether he would have clinched the nomination though.

Im not sure if he could win the general election, as keep in mind while Clinton won a massive electoral victory his margin in the tipping point state was still less than 5 points which was less than Obama's in 1992. Cuomo unlike Clinton would also be very vulnerable to the typical GOP playbook of the 70s and 80s as a weak on crime tax and spend democrat.


Clinton basically made that playbook irrelevant and HW really did not know how to deal with that as he unlike W was not good at campaigning on the fly but he was extremely well at campaigning when he had a established playbook to use and vs Cuomo he would. Imo the election actually would resemble the 1992 UK election with Cuomo just like Kinnock expected to win for most of the campaign then but Bush manages to pull out a narrow surprise victory come election day.


Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2022, 04:03:11 PM »

Yeah, Cuomo would be the establishment's Stop Clinton pick in the same way Biden was the future Clintonite establishment's Stop Sanders candidate. The consensus on this forum seems to be that Cuomo wins but doesn't expand the map as much.


President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX) / Fmr. Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL)

What would the county map look like?
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2022, 07:53:34 PM »

Yeah, Cuomo would be the establishment's Stop Clinton pick in the same way Biden was the future Clintonite establishment's Stop Sanders candidate. The consensus on this forum seems to be that Cuomo wins but doesn't expand the map as much.


President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN)
Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) ✓
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX) / Fmr. Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL)

Flip Tennessee to Bush as I don't see a northern Democrat winning any southern state. 50/50 chance Cuomo wins New Hampshire and ME 2nd. Cuomo wins on the economy and Bush not knowing where he wanted to go in a 2nd term. Cuomo wins handily in 1996 and without scandal his VP likely rides the dotcom boom to victory in 2000.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2022, 09:42:39 PM »


Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN)
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2022, 11:21:31 AM »


Considering Gore himself couldn't win it in 2000, I doubt Cuomo would win it even with Gore on the ticket and one has to wonder how many moderate/center right real life Clinton voters in Tennessee would've voted for Perot or even Bush in the event that Cuomo was at the top of the ticket instead of moderate, southern Clinton.
Logged
Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,413
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2022, 12:54:41 AM »

I think Cuomo could win, he was generally popular with the Democratic Party, and definitely a better fit for New England and the middle Atlantic region than Clinton.

   I think he goes with a more moderate Democrat as VP in 1992, probably one from the midwest or south. I think a good choice would be Representative Lee H. Hamilton from Indiana. He was on the final shortlist for Dukakis and Clinton in 1988 and 1992. He gives the ticket significant experience in foreign policy and had strong ties to Congress. He also is a similar age to Cuomo (early 60s), but had served in Congress since 1965, including stints as Chair of the Intelligence Committee, and Iran-Contra Committee, and was the 2nd leading Democrat on the Foreign Affairs committee.

   

   
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2023, 03:53:35 PM »

Cuomo would lose.

He is too ethnic for America in 1992. Dukakis had the same problem in 1988. Dukakis is Greek and Cuomo is an Italian. 1992 is 20 years removed from The Godfather, Mafioso, etc.

Bush would have played the ethnic card.

Clinton, Gephardt are more "white" than Cuomo.



Logged
Asenath Waite
Fulbright DNC
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,431
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2023, 04:22:13 PM »

I could see a Cuomo-Clinton ticket which actually would be quite similar to the Bartlett-Hoynes ticket in the West Wing. Northeastern intellectual Catholic liberal type with a centrist southern womanizing running mate.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2023, 04:30:03 PM »

I could see a Cuomo-Clinton ticket which actually would be quite similar to the Bartlett-Hoynes ticket in the West Wing. Northeastern intellectual Catholic liberal type with a centrist southern womanizing running mate.

They would lose.....Cuomo is an Italian and Bush would have played the ethnic card, he wouldn't have won any Southern states, even if he picked Clinton.....

Cuomo probably knew why he never ran for president, he never wanted to hear the stereotypes of mobs, etc.
Logged
ClassicElectionEnthusiast
Rookie
**
Posts: 138
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2023, 01:52:11 PM »

I could see a Cuomo-Clinton ticket which actually would be quite similar to the Bartlett-Hoynes ticket in the West Wing. Northeastern intellectual Catholic liberal type with a centrist southern womanizing running mate.

They would lose.....Cuomo is an Italian and Bush would have played the ethnic card, he wouldn't have won any Southern states, even if he picked Clinton.....

Cuomo probably knew why he never ran for president, he never wanted to hear the stereotypes of mobs, etc.

And that stereotype (not helped by the trial that finally saw Teflon Don John Gotti locked away for good occurring during the primary season) wouldn't have been just a Bush thing (in real life, there was a mini-scandal when one of the answering machine tapes released by Gennifer Flowers showed both Flowers and Clinton discussing a possibly Cuomo candidacy in terms that seemed to strongly imply they believed that Cuomo - based solely on his being a New York politician of Italian descent - was at minimum on friendly terms with the Mafia).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.