Pakistan 2022 Election

[jaichind]

It is the return of dynasty politics.

It seems the next Pakistan PM will be PML(N) leader Shehbaz Sharif and brother of 3 time PM Nawaz Sharif.  Shehbaz Sharif was the Punjab CM until 2018.  Note that  Shehbaz Sharif's son Hamza Shahbaz is also all set to become the new Punjab CM after the recent ouster of the PTI CM of Punjab.  Punjab which makes up 55% of Pakistan's population is the home state of the Sharif clan.  One person Shehbaz Sharif should watch out for is his niece and daughter of Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz.  It seems she is interested in becoming the heir of the Sharif dynasty and I can see a future Hamza Shahbaz vs Maryam Nawaz battle for control of PML(N).

In the meantime, Khan and PTI will try to stay out of jail and run in the next election on an anti-system platform of anti-dynasty politics, anti-USA and anti-military platforms.

[jaichind]

https://khybernews.tv/pti-wins-na-33-hangu-by-election/

"PTI retains NA-33 Hangu by winning by-poll"

PTI wins by-election and retains a seat that it has held since 2013.  PTI did get a big swing going from 37.1% of the vote to 48.7% in 2018.  This seat is in the NW so it is not as indicative of how PIT fortunes will fare in places like Punjab or Sindh.

[jaichind]

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/974402-by-polls-all-eyes-on-punjab-as-battle-for-20-seats-begins

"PTI in the lead in Punjab by-polls, unofficial, preliminary results show"

In Punjab the 20 PTI MLA that defected from PTI e triggered by-elections.  It seems PTI is winning or ahead in 17 out of the 20 by-elections in unofficial results.    If these are the results that would put at risk the new CM of Punjab Hamza Shahbaz's attempt to maintain a majority.

[omar04]

PML-N has no provincial governments now.

[jaichind]

By winning 15 out of the 20 Punjab by-elections PTI-PML(Q) alliance now has a majority and can now recapture the CM seat.  What the alliance has to work out is who will be CM and if they will call a snap election once they take power.   

Khan being ousted when he was  now looks like a blessing in disguise.   He can now blame all economic problems and especially inflation on his successors. 

[jaichind]

https://www.dawn.com/news/1700857

"Elahi suffers shock defeat as Hamza retains Punjab CM position after deputy speaker's contentious ruling"

PTI-PML(Q) candidate for CM of Punjab Elahi loses vote for CM to sitting PML(N) Shehbaz  179-176.  This is because the Deputy Speaker disqualified the PML(Q) 10 votes as national leader PML(Q) Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain wrote a letter to the Speaker saying that PML(Q) should support  Shehbaz. 

This one is going to the courts and most likely plays up the narrative that Khan and PTI are being targeted by the establishment/deep state which I guess could only help PTI in any future election.

[PSOL]

This assumes there will be another election and not a military coup.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/imran-khan-s-party-pti-wins-karachi-by-election-amid-political-upheaval-122082200300_1.html

PTI wins Karachi National Assembly in boost to Khan

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, what would Khan do if he gets into power again?