Will student debt relief be the hail mary that saves the Democrats in November?

[Skill and Chance]

No. 

1. There are many more voters who either didn't go to college or already paid off their loans who will resent this than voters who will benefit from it.

2. $10K likely won't be seen as "enough" by those lobbying for loan forgiveness.

This. I believe I read only 15% of the population has college debt. A vast majority of people won’t receive any benefit from it, and many of those that do are democrats already and/or are angry that it’s not more.

Polls are showing that a plurality of Americans support forgiving 10k in loans. What these polls are missing is the desirability bias. When given a question with 4-5 options, Americans love to choose the middle option because they love to be seen as “moderate”. We see this in a wide variety of issue polls. So a good chunk of those that approve of 10k debt forgiveness care very little about it and approve because it simply sounds like the middle ground of several different options. Once it actually occurs, these people won’t be helped at all and if anything, will be harmed by the increased inflation resulting from it

In a weird way, the GOP should stand to benefit more from a significant student loan reform, as in the long run, as student loans strongly disincentivize conservative lifestyles for those who have significant debt and contribute to the adolescence until age 30+ dynamic.  But in practice it gets blown out of proportion because journalists, non-corporate lawyers, and political think tank types are so much more likely to struggle with them than the general population.

[2016]

Nothing will safe Democrats: Cook Report is already projecting that Republicans will win between 20-35 House based on the newest Ratings.

Lower End (20 Seats) would be 233 Republican 202 Democrats

Higher End (35 Seats) would be 248 Republicans 187 Democrats and if that happens the Dems won't get the House back until 2026.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs arent winning any 20/30 seats and they are trailing in all the Senate swing state battleground that's wishful thinking this is a tough ejection but we gotta find out on EDay, there is scarce polls; anyways, if Rs get into control we re not getting anymore stimulus checks that's over what else are they gonna do, the R state Govs are cutting Gas taxes already, what else are they gonna do, all 2016 says is that Rs are gonna take control with what plans

I don't care whom is control but illegal immigrants aren't gonna stop we have Asians and Arabs and Jewish immigrants coming over caring COVID too, when we started seeing COVID in Jan 202o,it wasn't Mexicans wearing masks it were Asians that started wearing mask too, this virus came from China not Mexico

Anyways Cartels can tunnel under the fence that's why we have Border patrol and Natl Guard not to stop immigrants but illegal Cartels and many tunnels have been found under the fence, many Mexicans illegal or not are gonna find a way to get across forever, their relatives are here in the US

[jamestroll]

Gets Jennifer Wexton a few extra voters  in Loudoun County and Prince William that she will need to win.

[UncleSam]

All I know is that I’m a (former) Biden voter who is pissed off that by being responsible and paying off my student loans early I lost out on a free 10k. Oh wait I know one more thing. No ing shot in hell I’m voting for any D this November or for Biden ever again.

[Nyvin]

All I know is that I’m a (former) Biden voter who is pissed off that by being responsible and paying off my student loans early I lost out on a free 10k. Oh wait I know one more thing. No ing shot in hell I’m voting for any D this November or for Biden ever again.

I'm having a really hard time believing you really vote for Democrats much at all in general anyway though.

[Waldo]

I don't see how. By Democrat standards, this is a racist move that disproportionately benefits the privileged over inner-city minorities. In fact, it resembles a move Republicans would make if they behaved the rest Democrats think they do.

[Nyvin]

I don't see how. By Democrat standards, this is a racist move that disproportionately benefits the privileged over inner-city minorities. In fact, it resembles a move Republicans would make if they behaved the rest Democrats think they do.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/enrichment/education/591838-survey-finds-federal-student-loan-debt/

When it comes to the demographics of student loans, 24 percent of Black adults said they have federal student loan debt, compared to only 14 percent of whites, 15 percent of Hispanics and 11 percent of Asians.  

Student loan forgiveness also polls better with people of color on whether they approve of doing it.

It's commonly cited that student loan forgiveness (particularly low amounts like 10k) would lower the racial wealth gap.

https://fortune.com/2022/05/10/student-loan-forgiveness-closing-racial-wealth-gap-communities-of-color/

“An extensive body of research shows that rising levels of student debt disproportionately affect Black people and Latino/a people—in particular, Black women,” Welbeck told Fortune. “This inequity widens the racial wealth gaps caused by centuries of systemic racism. Student debt cancellation is an essential tool that must be used to help close the racial wealth gap.”

Privileged students from wealthy families don't have to take out loans for college at all a lot of times and when they do they have the resources to pay it back rather quickly.  

[UncleSam]

All I know is that I’m a (former) Biden voter who is pissed off that by being responsible and paying off my student loans early I lost out on a free 10k. Oh wait I know one more thing. No ing shot in hell I’m voting for any D this November or for Biden ever again.

I'm having a really hard time believing you really vote for Democrats much at all in general anyway though.

Lol since I turned 18 I voted Obama / Johnson / Biden at the presidential level and Donnelly (went to college in IN) / Cantwell in 2018 at the senatorial level (and have literally never voted for an R for senate in my life). Wyman in 2020 was the first (and thus far only) statewide R I had / have ever voted for.

I’m not saying Dems should necessarily care about my vote - I am not exactly in their target demographic (a cis-gendered white man with a white collar job in his late 20s), and I generally think that people think the parties should care way more about their individual opinion than the parties should in reality. However, the statement that I don’t vote for Dems much is objectively false. The problem is that Dems have been moving further and further left on economic issues to the point where even if I agree with them on social issues I don’t trust them to run a competent functional government right now. Biden was supposed to be a return to the more fiscally moderate wing of the party and that was just a baldfaced lie.

Voters like myself are very attainable for Democrats, especially in a time when the conservative right is going insane on abortion. As a result, if I felt I could trust the Democrats to be even borderline competent then that would still be my inclination. Unfortunately Democrats have proven to be completely insane in terms of showing an active desire to encourage fiscal irresponsibility at every level of society / government, in terms of being actively complicit in helping as many people cross our borders illegally as possible, and in terms of being increasingly unable to deal with ideological dissent or even discussion on any topic.

[Utah Neolib]

No. The red wave is happening, accept it. Gas prices are still going to be high, and inflation is still a thing. Republicans are winning both chambers, and I don’t like it but this is something people have to accept. Young people don’t decide elections as they are often not the most consistent block of voters, old people and middle aged people are consistent voters. I think a lot of the student loan cancellation people are random woke blue check mark people on Twitter.

[Ferguson97]

Forgiving $10,000 of student debt at a time of nearly 40 year high inflation to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars is surely a political winner.
Likewise, telling hundreds of millions of voters who either didn't go to college, or have already paid off their loans that they're now on the hook for the loans of a Starbucks barista with a worthless degree while they themselves are unable to afford food staples, gas, homes, etc., and while the democrats are doing nothing to address college costs or acknowledging that it's not the best path for the majority of people, is sure to be popular...

I genuinely do not understand this talking point. When has Biden or anyone given any indication that this would be paid for by raising taxes on the working class?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It won't be, but they might as well do the $10k forgiveness already.

[ElectionsGuy]

The groups Democrats are struggling with currently are whites without a college degree and Latinos (the least college-educated ethnicity in the country). Student debt "relief" rewards younger, wealthier, college-educated voters who already vote overwhelmingly Democrat at the expense of everybody else.