🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

I read this interesting (older) history of CDS-PP this weekend: http://analisesocial.ics.ul.pt/documentos/1223396163T3dDP4zc0Vt79YR2.pdf
and it got me thinking. CDS-PP historically seems to have had three major groups, sometimes with a good bit of overlap. None of them are recoverable today.

-Actual centrists, some of whom flirted with PS at times. This group vanished long ago and is unrecoverable due to PSD's relative moderation.
-Market liberals like Lucas Pires (he did also have curious harder right links) who ended up being co-opted by Cavaco Silva and PSD's neoliberal turn. This group is now either on the right of PSD or supporting IL. CDS-PP isn't going to win them back.
-National populists like Manuel Monteiro. This group probably left CDS-PP to support CHEGA and Ventura is a more exciting option for them than Melo and CDS-PP.

Even with PSD's pathetic opposition performance, CDS-PP is polling literally at zero. I'm just wondering how long it is before they die off as a party. It's hard to imagine them finding support anywhere.

Yeah, those were always the main groups within CDS. Freitas do Amaral was from the first one, the Centrists, and it clashed with the party's strategy in the 90's which forced Freitas to leave the party. He later supported PSD candidacies, until becoming Foreign Affairs minister during Sócrates 1st term. Lucas Pires was, and still is, a very highly regarded figure in Portuguese politics for his energy and clear message, but he led a very divided CDS and always failed to reach his goals. He also left the party in the 90's and became a PSD member until his death. Manuel Monteiro was a very "interesting" leader of CDS in the 90's. He turned the party into an anti-Euro, hard-line conservative party, which created divisions in the party. After Monteiro's departure in the 1997, he entered in a war with Paulo Portas and also left the party and formed a new party called "New Democracy" (PND), which ended in total failure. He returned to CDS in 2020.

Paulo Portas was able to make CDS a mix of all of the 3 groups above: He appealed to hard-line conservatives with a speech against minorities who abuse State aid and pressed on family values; He appealed to liberals with policies of low taxes and pro-business; And he also appealed to Centrists because of his approach to social spending, pensioners particularly.

The PSD/CDS coalition government, 2011-2015 during the Troika years, actually hurt more CDS than the PSD as the party lost almost all of its appeal. The PSD stole the liberal approach and the Centrists were furious with social and pensions cuts and also abandoned the party, and went to the PS. Portas' exit from the leadership was the first blow, and his successor, Assunção Cristas, lost what was left, the hard-line conservatives, with her soft approach on gay rights, abortion, etc. The entry of IL and CHEGA in the political scene was the final blow, and the rest is history.

They could still survive as a party for a while because of their strength in local government. But, here, probably more as a "support" of the PSD. Across the country, the PSD has several coalitions with CDS in which CDS members are elected under a PSD banner. This is a safe bet for these local CDS parties as with negotiated safe seats with the PSD, they can easily elect local members. So, because of this, they may remain active for a while, but it could come the time when some could ask what's the point of just being an "appendix" of the PSD. Running alone is a big risk, but that seems to be Melo's strategy, what else can he do, right?, at least in the EU elections in 2024. In this autumn Madeira elections, CDS will run in a joint coalition with the PSD, so they're safe, for now, but the the question will always go back of being an "appendix" of the PSD or not.

[Mike88]

Costa throws "under the bus" two former government members and announces a new vetting plan for future government members:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1613291798247641089

Government. Vetting control revealed this Thursday. PR rejected 1st version

PM Costa returned to Parliament this afternoon to face MPs, with the "governmental chaos", of the last few weeks, in the backdrop. Costa faced questions by Opposition parties regarding the cases of former Secretaries Alexandra Reis and Rita Marques and he literally threw them under the bus. In Ms. Reis case, Costa said that she violated the rules by being nominated to another public company and not returning her compensation, and regarding Ms. Marques, Costa also said that her conduct is "illegal". During the debate, Costa also apologized for the ongoing turmoils in government and announced that, in tomorrow's cabinet meeting, a new vetting plan will be approved. He informed Parliament that his original plan was rejected by President Marcelo, both exchanged letters about the matter, and that a new one was accepted. Costa's original idea was to include Marcelo in the vetting of possible future government members, something that the President totally rejected.

[Mike88]

- PS mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district, arrested by the police because of corruption charges:
(...)

The police and the DA office have announced that they will ask for the removal of parliamentary immunity of the deputy PSD caucus leader, Joaquim Pinto Moreira, as they also suspect he committed corruption and abuse of power crimes while he was mayor of Espinho,, between 2009 and 2021, regarding the same investigation that led to the arrest of the city's incumbent PS mayor.
(...)

Update regarding these detentions:

- The five detainees, including the PS mayor of Espinho, are expected to be presented to a judge this Thursday and know if they will remain in jail, be put on bail or await trial in freedom;

- More details about the police investigation are being revealed by the press: According to the media, Miguel Reis, PS mayor of Espinho, was photographed, by the police, receiving bribes, in cash, from a businessman who wanted to built a luxury housing complex in Espinho. The police got this tip by wiretaps, in which the businessman was caught "bragging" to family members detailing how he was going to give the money to the mayor;

- Regarding Reis predecessor as mayor, PSD MP Joaquim Pinto Moreira, he says that he's open to collaborate with the police and is waiting for the removal of his immunity by Parliament. But, here, a problem is surging for Luís Montenegro: Pinto Moreira is a very close ally of Montenegro and many, within the party, are urging him to drop Pinto Moreira in order to protect the party;

[Mike88]

- PS mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district, arrested by the police because of corruption charges:
(...)

The police and the DA office have announced that they will ask for the removal of parliamentary immunity of the deputy PSD caucus leader, Joaquim Pinto Moreira, as they also suspect he committed corruption and abuse of power crimes while he was mayor of Espinho,, between 2009 and 2021, regarding the same investigation that led to the arrest of the city's incumbent PS mayor.
(...)

(...)
- More details about the police investigation are being revealed by the press: According to the media, Miguel Reis, PS mayor of Espinho, was photographed, by the police, receiving bribes, in cash, from a businessman who wanted to built a luxury housing complex in Espinho. The police got this tip by wiretaps, in which the businessman was caught "bragging" to family members detailing how he was going to give the money to the mayor;
(...)

Miguel Reis resigns as Mayor of Espinho:

The detained mayor of Espinho, Miguel Reis, has resigned from his post as mayor. His deputy will now become the new mayor of the city. This decision is a way, for his defense strategy, to try to avoid continuing in jail as the DA warns of the risk of continuity of criminal activities.

[Mike88]

- Former Tourism Secretary Rita Marques hired by a company she gave benefits while in office:
(...)

Costa throws "under the bus" two former government members and announces a new vetting plan for future government members:

PM Costa returned to Parliament this afternoon to face MPs, with the "governmental chaos", of the last few weeks, in the backdrop. Costa faced questions by Opposition parties regarding the cases of former Secretaries Alexandra Reis and Rita Marques and he literally threw them under the bus. (...) and regarding Ms. Marques, Costa also said that her conduct is "illegal".
(...)

After Costa's complete "trashing" of her actions, former Tourism secretary Rita Marques announced she was declining the invitation to work and manage the company she gave tax benefits, WOW, World of Wine, based in Vila Nova de Gaia, Porto district. In a statement on social media, Ms. Marques was sorry that her name was used in ways she does not approve and during her whole life, she followed the law and always fought to be competent, strict and ethical. Because of this, she declined the invitation.

[Mike88]

Some other stories of the day:

- There was another resignation in government, this time from an advisor of PM Costa. Pedro Magalhães Ribeiro, Costa's advisor for local affairs, resigned after he was convicted in a court case regarding a complaint while he was mayor of Cartaxo, back in the summer of 2021. He was condemned to pay a fine of 3,600 euros and is forbidden to hold public office for 2 years and 9 months;

- The government's much awaited new "vetting process" for future government members was announced this afternoon, and is being a bit object of ridicule. The Presidency minister, Mariana Vieira da Silva, announced that each future possible member will have to fill in a 34 option 36 option questionnaire* and then sign a "code of honor". Pundits and commentators are ridiculing the vetting process saying it's "useless" and a joke;

- PSD leader Luís Montenegro announced, in a TV interview, the his deputy caucus leader, MP Joaquim Pinto Moreira, will resign from his post in Parliament because of the ongoing corruption investigations in Espinho city hall. Mr. Moreira, just like his PS successor, is a suspect in an investigation regarding bribes in order to built a luxury housing complex in Espinho city;

*The questionnaire was made public by the government and has 36 question, not 34 like the minister announced.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 15.5% of undecideds are excluded)

31.1% PS (+0.2)
29.5% PSD (+4.2)
10.7% CHEGA (-0.3)
  7.6% IL (-1.0)
  7.5% BE (-1.1)
  3.7% CDU (-0.7)
  3.7% PAN (+0.1)
  2.4% Livre (+0.5)
  0.7% CDS (-1.5)
  3.3% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.9 Luís Montenegro (nc)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.7 Rui Tavares (nc)
2.6 António Costa (-0.3)
2.6 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.6 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.5 Nuno Melo (-0.1)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 January 2023. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Teachers strikes and protests: Teachers unions and Government are clashing and accusing each other.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1613828262043521028

Q&A: Teachers march in Lisbon on Saturday: what's at stake?

Since December last year, almost everyday, there have been strikes and protests, against the Government, by teachers in schools across the country. These strikes, called by a teacher's union called "STOP", have been dominating headlines as schools are beign shut down and students are left with no classes for days. Last December, a protest, by this union, of around 25,000 teachers surprised the government because of the big turnout. The reasons behind these strike/protests are the government's education policies and reforms, mainly the proposal to allow local government to hire teachers, something the unions vehemently reject. The government accuses the unions of "fake news" and of spreading false stories and disinformation, saying they never proposed such local government policy. The unions, on their part, accuse the government of hidding their true policies. Teachers also demand the full pay of their frozen career upgrades, something that in 2019 almost led to PM Costa's resignation.

During this week, even though there are ongoing talks between the government and unions, tensions between both sides escalated as the government suspects that teachers are creating funds in order to pay the wages of other colleagues on strike. The government says this is illegal and adding to this, has also asked the DA office to confirm the legality of the ongoing teachers strikes. The Education minister, João Costa, is already warning that if the strikes don't stop, he will impose minimum services in schools in order to have teachers teaching, as he labels the ongoing strikes as "radical".  A new march/protest in expected this Saturday in Lisbon city.

[Mike88]

Because the last few weeks, for Costa and his government, were to forget, a bit of comic relief:

"Mambo nº 13" by Vasco Palmeirim of Comercial Radio.

[Mike88]

Teachers strikes and protests: Teachers unions and Government are clashing and accusing each other.

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the ongoing strikes:

Q1: Lately, teachers have been on strike. Do you agree with these strikes?

59.5% Yes
31.4% No
  9.1% Undecided

Q2: Do you think this education minister has improved or worsened the education situation in Portugal?

49.1% Worsened
12.6% Improved
10.6% Kept the same
27.8% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 January 2023. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

These strikes are also dividing opinions in the media: Público newspaper editorial, this Saturday, is coming out against the teachers strikes. The editorial says that the strikes are "shot in the foot", as teachers are projecting an image of a "class who will use every mean to reach its goals", even if it harms student learning.

[Mike88]

- PS mayor of Espinho, Aveiro district, arrested by the police because of corruption charges:
(...)

The police and the DA office have announced that they will ask for the removal of parliamentary immunity of the deputy PSD caucus leader, Joaquim Pinto Moreira, as they also suspect he committed corruption and abuse of power crimes while he was mayor of Espinho,, between 2009 and 2021, regarding the same investigation that led to the arrest of the city's incumbent PS mayor.
(...)

(...)
- More details about the police investigation are being revealed by the press: According to the media, Miguel Reis, PS mayor of Espinho, was photographed, by the police, receiving bribes, in cash, from a businessman who wanted to built a luxury housing complex in Espinho. The police got this tip by wiretaps, in which the businessman was caught "bragging" to family members detailing how he was going to give the money to the mayor;
(...)

Miguel Reis resigns as Mayor of Espinho:

The detained mayor of Espinho, Miguel Reis, has resigned from his post as mayor. His deputy will now become the new mayor of the city. This decision is a way, for his defense strategy, to try to avoid continuing in jail as the DA warns of the risk of continuity of criminal activities.

Update:

The Porto Court Judge has ruled that former Espinho mayor Miguel Reis and the businessman who bribed him, will remain in jail and await trial in the same place. The other 3 arrested suspects will be put on bail and/or forbidden to hold public offices and contact with other suspects in the case. At the same time, the District Attorney suspects that the PSD MP Joaquim Pinto Moreira, pressured public officials to approve projects for Espinho. His nickname seems to have been "the Pope", according to the DA.

[Mike88]

Teachers strikes and protests: Teachers unions and Government are clashing and accusing each other.

Thousands of protesters, from teachers, students, parents and other workers, in Lisbon against the government policies:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1614494447261163520

The march of the teachers drew to the streets of Lisbon thousands of protesters from teachers, students, parents and other workers. The police says that around 30,000-40,000 people were in the streets, while the union who organized the march says that 100,000 people were in the protest.

However, the march was marked by the accusation, from the union and teachers, that the Republican National Guard (GNR) stopped and inspected several buses full of protesters that were on route to Lisbon. According to the protesters, the Guard inspected backpacks and delayed the arrival of several buses to Lisbon. The National Guard confirms that they did "random inspections", but that they never intended to hinder any bus of arriving to its destination, pressing that any such accusations are untrue.

[Mike88]

Some "stories" of the last few days:

- A PS MP, Jamila Madeira, is a bit in "hot waters", to say the least. A few days ago it was revealed she had been accumulating wages from her job as an MP with other job in a key energy company of the country, REN, elevating her wage to 11,000 euros per month. This situation lasted between April and December 2022. A Parliamentary report on her situation was prepared but it was stalled by the PS and, in the beginning of 2023, Ms. Madeira resigned from her post in REN and became exclusively a MP. However, it was also revealed she owns several shares in other companies, from energy to telecommunications, thus creating a controversy regarding possible conflict of interests during her votes and positions about matters regarding energy in Parliament;

- With the Madeira regional elections just 9 months away, the political scene in the islands was a bit "rocked" this week: a report by DN newspaper on the success of the PSD in Madeira created fury within the regional party as one of its members and MP, Sérgio Marques, confided to the newspaper that former Madeira President, Alberto João Jardim, "invented" construction works and benefited special interests while in power. He also said that Miguel Albuquerque, incumbent Madeira President, and Pedro Calado, Funchal's mayor, are rivals within the party. These comments infuriated the party bosses and this afternoon, Mr Marques was forced to resign from his seat in Parliament and from his positions within the regional party;

- But, the PS-Madeira was also news. The current Secretary for Portuguese Communities, Paulo Cafôfo, is being investigated for possible crimes of corruption when he was Mayor of Funchal, between 2013 and 2019. Investigators in the DA office also suspect that he created a network of deals, by vitiating public works contracts, in order to finance the PS-Madeira. Mr. Cafôfo reacted to the story saying he's aware of the investigation and awaits its conclusion.

[Mike88]

Police raids Lisbon city hall because of suspicions that Fernando Medina signed contracts with the goal of illegally financing the PS:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1615815193463857165

Searches in Lisbon City Hall for suspected PS “slush fund” in Medina's mandate

The police raided Lisbon city hall because of an investigation in which the police suspects that former Lisbon mayor and incumbent Finance minister, Fernando Medina, vitiated public works contracts in order to benefit a proeminent PS member from Castelo Branco district. The goal of this scheme was to gather money to illegally finance the Socialist Party (PS). The PS member in question, Joaquim Morão, is a former mayor of Castelo Branco and Idanha a Nova cities and a powerfull figure within the party. Contacted by several media outlets, Fernando Medina says he's unaware of the investigation, while Lisbon city hall confirms the raid but added that any update should be given by the police.

This seems to be another police investigation surrounding Fernando Medina. A few months ago, the police confirmed they were also investigation some of Medina's decision while Lisbon mayor.

[Mike88]

Police raids Lisbon city hall because of suspicions that Fernando Medina signed contracts with the goal of illegally financing the PS:

The PS has reacted to this police raid and "categorically" rejects any accusation of "slush funds" to finance the party:

In a tweet, the PS has rejected all of the accusations that the party was financed by "slush funds" during Fernando Medina's term as Mayor of Lisbon with the use of vitiated public works contracts in order to benefit a proeminent PS members. The party added that all of their donations are declared and that they did nothing outside the legal framework.

[Mike88]

Police raids Lisbon city hall because of suspicions that Fernando Medina signed contracts with the goal of illegally financing the PS:

The PS has reacted to this police raid and "categorically" rejects any accusation of "slush funds" to finance the party:
(...)

What a trainwreck this case is becoming: Fernando Medina is asking to be questioned by the DA office.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1616203658139471877

Total pressure from Belém on a weakened government and fears for the Minister of Finance

In a quite chaotic press conference, Finance minister Fernando Medina has asked the DA office to question him regarding the raid in Lisbon city hall surrounding suspicions of "slush funds" to finance the Socialists. Medina says he has a "clear conscience", but his statements were contradictory and vague, leading many pundits to label the press conference as a PR disaster.

At the same time, the usual, and cringe, PS vs PSD accusations have started: PSD says that Medina has no authority to be Finance minister, while the PS accuses the PSD of "creeping populism" and of just fuelling the far-right.

[Mike88]

Teachers strikes and protests: Teachers unions and Government are clashing and accusing each other.

Thousands of protesters, from teachers, students, parents and other workers, in Lisbon against the government policies:

Negotiations between teachers unions and the government fail. Strikes and protests will continue.

No deal. After the series of meetings with teachers unions and the government, no common ground has been reached and the strikes, that started last December, and protests will continue. The unions accuse the government of not wanting to compromise, adding that the Education minister is "at sleep" and isn't aware of the big mobilization of teachers. The Government, on their part, says that there were a few "approach steps" and talks will continue in other meetings. The minister also asked for the end of the strikes and wants minimum services in schools.

[Mike88]

(...)
Pressure over Pedro Nuno Santos escalated during the day as evidence was piling up that he, or his office, may had misled both the PM and the Finance minister regarding Alexandra Reis 500,000 euros compensation from TAP airlines. A report, from Negócios newspaper, says that indeed only the Infrastructure ministy was informed of the negotiations between TAP and Ms Reis. Pedro Nuno Santos office didn't inform anyone else.
(...)

After the media suspicions, the confirmation: Pedro Nuno Santos acknowledges that he was informed and approved the controversial 500,000 compensation to Alexandra Reis:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1616550134996688896

Pedro Nuno Santos admits that after all he was informed of the amount of compensation to Alexandra Reis

After all of the media's reports and suspicions that PNS knew, or at least was informed, about the controversial compensation payment to former TAP manager Alexandra Reis, former minister Pedro Nuno Santos now confirms that he indeed was informed and approved the payment. In a statement to the press, he says that he "found" a notification in which he and his team approved the payment, adding that no one had any recollection of this notification. Expresso newspaper says that the "notification" was in reality a... WhatsApp message, and that the discussion and approval of Ms. Reis half a million compensation was all decided in a WhatsApp group conversation.

Pundits and commentators are bit stunned by this announcement from PNS,  but some point that Nuno Santos wants to avoid any embarrassing revelations in the incoming new TAP Parliamentary committee and may want to control all possible info to preserve his political ambitions.

[Mike88]

Liberal Initiative (IL) leadership ballot this weekend:

This Saturday and Sunday, 2,327 IL members, out of around 6,000, will elect the party's leader and new leadership bodies. The vote will be electronic and will happen Sunday morning. There are three candidates in the race:
https://twitter.com/PortugalElects/status/1612962023662407680

However, the mood in the party, during the leadership campaign, was quite tense and there's a lot of suspicion between supporters of the different candidates. Because of this, the party decided to hire an external company, Ernst & Young, to oversee and validate the ballot results. This decision surprised many pundits as it's almost unheard-of in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

27.1% PS (-7.4)
25.1% PSD (-5.8 )
12.9% CHEGA (+4.0)
  9.5% IL (+2.8 )
  6.6% BE (+2.8 )
  4.8% CDU (+1.6)
  3.4% Livre (+1.3)
  3.1% PAN (+0.1)
  1.4% CDS (-0.5)
  6.1% Others/Invalid (+1.1)

Preferred PM:

38% António Costa (nc)
19% Luís Montenegro (-1)
37% Neither (+7)
  1% Both (nc)
  5% Undecided (-6)

Popularity ratings: (difference between Approve and Disapprove)

João Cotrim Figueiredo +5.0
Rui Tavares 0.0
Catarina Martins -10.0
Inês Sousa Real -14.0
Paulo Raimundo -15.0
Luís Montenegro -18.0
Nuno Melo -19.0
André Ventura -26.0
António Costa -32.0

Government approval:

59% Disapprove (+11)
20% Approve (-10)
18% Neither approve or disapprove (+1)
  3% Undecided (-1)

President Marcelo approval:

45% Approve (-4)
35% Disapprove (+10)
18% Neither approve or disapprove (-4)
  2% Undecided (-2)

Poll conducted between 10 and 14 January 2023. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.45%.

[Mike88]

Liberal Initiative (IL) leadership ballot this weekend:

Rui Rocha elected new leader of the Liberal Initiative:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1617240828233105409

Rui Rocha is the new president of the Liberal Initiative

In a rather chaotic, tense and disorganized convention in which, for example, the leadership ballot was expected to be held during Sunday morning and it only started at... 6 PM and the results announced after 7 PM, Rui Rocha was elected as new leader of the Liberals with 51.7% of the votes. His main opponent, Carla Castro, got 44% and José Cardoso just 4.3%. The convention was tense with a lot of insults and attacks between different members and factions within the party.

In his victory speech, Mr Rocha thanked Ms. Castro and Mr Cardoso for their candidacies and also thanked his team for all of their efforts. He also thanked former party leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, for his support and his contribution to the party. He said he's ready to fight against the stagnation of the country, hopes to reach 15% of the votes in future elections and end the PS-PSD bipartisanship, adding that the Liberals are the only alternative as the rest of parties are all too dependent on the State. He attacked the proposed PS-PSD Constitutional revision that could write in the Constitution rules on future pandemic and confinements measures, announcing rallies against these changes. He went on to say he will lead the Opposition by proposing policies on housing, transports and challenged PSD leader Luís Montenegro to decide if he's on the side of the Liberals and "freedom" or not.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo receives a letter with a bullet inside and a request of 1 million euros. The President, however, downplays the incident:

Police arrests the man who sent the letter and was planning an attack against President Marcelo:

The police arrested, this Tuesday morning, a man who last November sent an envelope with bullets in it to the Presidential Palace. The man threatened to kill President Marcelo if he didn't received 1.1 million euros. The authorities say the man is very dangerous and has a record of other violent crimes.

[Mike88]

Local by-election today:

São Jacinto parish by-election: PSD/CDS/PPM gain from PS.

Remember this by-election last November? Well, the new parish government was unable to stop the seizure of furniture from the local parish building by a company who demands money from the parish:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1617607885059682304

Furniture and other assets seized at the Junta de São Jacinto

Earlier this week, a removal ban arrived to collect assets from São Jacinto parish headquarters, Aveiro district, because of a debt the parish has to a company and hasn't paid yet. Several items from the parish building, from furniture to computers, were seized because of the debts. The new PSD coalition local government says it was unable to stop the seizure of parish property and also says that parish debts are worth 715,000 euros. To the company that seized the furniture and computers, the parish owes 26,000 euros.

What a weird situation.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

30.6% PSD (+0.2)
26.9% PS (-9.0)
14.2% CHEGA (+5.1)
  8.0% IL (+2.8 )
  5.6% BE (+2.2)
  2.2% CDU (-2.1)
  1.9% Livre (-0.3)
  0.9% PAN (+0.3)
  0.0% CDS (-0.7)
  9.7% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Government approval ratings:

53% Bad/Very bad (+12)
34% Average (-6)
12% Good/Very good (-5)
  1% Undecided (-1)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

63% Disapprove (+9)
31% Approve (-10)
  6% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 January 2023. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

[Mike88]

Some updates:

- The man that was planning an attack against President Marcelo was sent to jail, a mental institution, where he will conduct exams to test his mental sanity;

- The ongoing government crisis, lasting since December, continues to dominate headlines with cases surrounding ministers and other members. President Marcelo is warning that the country needs stability and elections is the last thing the country wants. He advises the Government to start "governing" and better, and that the Opposition(s) should also do better;

- The President's position seems to be a response, sort of, to PSD leader Luís Montenegro's stance that when he feels that the government has had enough, he will ask for elections. He adds that it's still "Costa's time", but that he is ready to be PM. At the same time, PM Costa is traveling across the country and is trying to "shake off" all of the dark clouds surrounding the government, by visiting investment projects and saying that the economy is strong and that it will grow more in 2023 than what's expected;

- The last minister under the spotlight is Foreign Affairs minister, João Gomes Cravinho. He is accused of lying to Parliament because of his knowledge, or not, of a budget slippage of millions of euros in the requalification of a military hospital in Lisbon. This requalification is already being investigated because of possible crimes of corruption. It was also revealed he has shares in a real estate company where one of his partners is a man convicted for fraud. Mr. Cravinho says he had no knowledge of his partner's issues with the law and also wasn't sure what kind of businesses deals his own real estate company made;

- Tensions between teachers and the government continue. Everyday, schools across the country are closed because of the teachers strikes and protests. Another protest against the government is schedule for next Saturday, 28 January, in Lisbon city;