🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Regarding the other ongoing controversy, about the Court's decision to declare illegal the use of Metadata in investigations, President Marcelo is worried that to resolve the matter a complete review of the Constitution may be needed:

Adding to the President worries, the Constitutional Court also rejected a request by the DA office to reverse their decision, saying the DA is also to blame for this whole mess:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1525205641857490944

Constitutional Court rejects PGR's request on the nullity of the metadata process

The Court rejected a request by the DA office to reverse the Court's decision regarding the use of Metadata in judicial investigations. In a short statement, the Court said that the DA also is to blame as it did nothing. Portugal was one of the few EU countries who didn't change the law regarding Metadata after the EU Courts ruled their use as invalid. Therefore, as the Court's ruling has retroactive effects, several judicial rulings and convictions since 2008 could be overturn and people serving time for murder, hacking, scams and others crimes, could be released from jail. In fact, lawyers from some high profile case here are already asking for the realease of their clients.

PM Costa has already scheduled an emergency meeting of the National Security Council for Monday to analyse the consequences and see what can be done.

What a fiasco...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro formalizes his candidacy and unveils his manifesto.

Luís Montenegro formalized, yesterday afternoon, his candidacy for the PSD leadership. He delivered 2,800 signatures in order to be on the ballot and unveiled his manifesto. In a statement to the press, in front of the PSD National Headquarters, Montenegro refused talks with CHEGA, but refused to an "accomplice in the perpetuation of the PS in power", adding that the PSD needs to be the home of all the voters who are fed up with the PS. The main policies in his manifesto are the following:

- Creation of a "negative IRS" for low wages;
- 15% IRS tax for workers until 35 years old;
- Creation of a free national kindergartens network;
- Incentives for companies and businesses to have kindergartens for employees;
- Discussion of a 4 day working week;
- Reintroduction of vocational education;
- Family doctor for all people and involve the private sector in the NHS;
- Reform of the Armed Forces with increase wages and more investment;

Montenegro's manifesto... doesn't seem particularly different from Costa's platform except in as much as "private sector in the NHS" is anathema to the PS. Is this deliberate and/or advantageous?

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro formalizes his candidacy and unveils his manifesto.

Luís Montenegro formalized, yesterday afternoon, his candidacy for the PSD leadership. He delivered 2,800 signatures in order to be on the ballot and unveiled his manifesto. In a statement to the press, in front of the PSD National Headquarters, Montenegro refused talks with CHEGA, but refused to an "accomplice in the perpetuation of the PS in power", adding that the PSD needs to be the home of all the voters who are fed up with the PS. The main policies in his manifesto are the following:

- Creation of a "negative IRS" for low wages;
- 15% IRS tax for workers until 35 years old;
- Creation of a free national kindergartens network;
- Incentives for companies and businesses to have kindergartens for employees;
- Discussion of a 4 day working week;
- Reintroduction of vocational education;
- Family doctor for all people and involve the private sector in the NHS;
- Reform of the Armed Forces with increase wages and more investment;

Montenegro's manifesto... doesn't seem particularly different from Costa's platform except in as much as "private sector in the NHS" is anathema to the PS. Is this deliberate and/or advantageous?

Well, the PS being against the private sector in the NHS is debatable as, for example, the party who initiated the public-private partnerships (PPP) in hospitals was... the PS, back in 2001. The PS is actually quite divided on the matter, as you have people like Marta Temido who are against the private sector in the NHS, while others like former Health minister, Adalberto Campos Fernandes, who strongly defend the public-private partnerships in hospitals.

Regarding Montenegro's manifesto, well, he's actually seen as the most anti-PS of the two candidates running, but his manifesto is very moderate. Moreira da Silva hasn't present yet his manifesto, next week is the deadline to be on the ballot, so he will probably unveil it by then, but it's expected to be a very moderate manifesto with focus on environmental policies and "modernization" of the party and the country. To be honest, I believe this is just advantageous, as very few in the party's base are worried about "policies", but rather who's the strongest against the PS. However, neither seem to be a strong candidate and almost everyone in the party believes that the next leader will be a "cannon fodder" leader until someone else, like Carlos Moedas, decides to run and takes over by around 2026, this of course if Costa doesn't go to Europe.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Jorge Moreira da Silva unveils his manifesto.

After Montenegro last week, Moreira da Silva made official his candidacy for the PSD leadership with 1,800 signatures and unveiled his manifesto. Moreira da Silva wasn't present during this process, in the PSD National Headquarters, as he's infected with Covid and is in isolation. Nonetheless, his campaign gave a statement in which Moreira da Silva defends that needs to unite in order to win the elections in Madeira and Azores, the EP elections, and local elections adding that the party should start now to draft a platform to present to voters. He also defended that the PSD cannot tolerate or talk with those who are "racists, xenophobes and populists". His main policies in the manifesto are the following:

- Creation of an independent council to oversee public policies;
- "Zero tolerance" on corruption strategy;
- Extension of early voting and creation of a new electoral system that mixes FPTP with compensation lists;
- Social Security reform with more articulation between SS contributions and other taxes;
- Reduction of corporate taxes;
- Reduction of IRS rates with a maximum marginal rate of 45%;
- Creation of a "National Security System" in order to resolve the main issues in defence forces;

After the 6pm deadline to submit candidacies, the PSD tribunal confirmed that Luís Montenegro and Jorge Moreira da Silva will be the only candidates on the ballot.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot: No debates between Montenegro and Moreira da Silva.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1526561306416930817

PSD: Moreira da Silva insists on debates, Montenegro's candidacy says he no longer has an agenda

There will be no debates between Luís Montenegro and Jorge Moreira da Silva in the race for the PSD leadership, as of now. Last minute cancellations and accusation between both sides are making it impossible to hold a debate. Moreira da Silva's infection with Covid mixed things even more. Moreira da Silva's campaign says that he's open to debates and is challenging Montenegro for a debate. In response, Montenegro's campaign said that there was going to be a debate, next Thursday, on TVI/CNN Portugal but it was canceled because of Moreira da Silva's Covid isolation. They added that their agenda is full for the final days of the campaign and they don't have time.

With just 10 days before the ballot, Montenegro is seen as the clear favourite. His campaign expects to win the "voter rich" districts of Porto and Braga, with Montenegro expecting to win around 80% in Porto, something to watch on election night. However, many PSD strategists warn that the party base is very apathetic and that turnout could be low.

[Mike88]

Former PM José Sócrates has been leaving the country without notifying the Courts. He could suffer consequences for this.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1527045519297609729

José Sócrates has traveled to Brazil without notifying the courts

If a few weeks ago Sócrates was back in the news because in a Soares biography, PM Costa acknowledged that he, and the PS, were "cheated" by Sócrates, now he's back in the headlines because he's traveling without informing the Courts. Sócrates' case is still in appeal, therefore and according to the law, if he wants to travel, he's mandated to notify the Courts. But he isn't, and the DA office has already notified him to explain to the Court his lack of communication. If the Court doesn't accept his reasons, he could suffer consequences like being barred from leaving the country.

Sócrates, in reaction, says that the Courts knows his address and that he doesn't feel obliged to inform the Courts, but, law specialists say that the former PM is violating the law and rules. Sócrates has been traveling a lot to Brazil, where he's doing a doctorate and is being invited for several debates and seminars, and even has a supportive role in Lula da Silva's campaign for President of Brazil.

I just cannot understand how so many people in Brazil think this guy has some kind of credibility...

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the PSD leadership election:

Q: Who's the best candidate to lead the PSD? (All voters)

54.7% Luís Montenegro
32.1% Jorge Moreira da Silva
10.1% Neither
  3.1% Undecided

Poll released on 7 and 15 May 2022. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

34.5% PS
18.5% PSD
  7.7% CHEGA
  6.8% IL
  5.2% BE
  3.6% CDU
  3.6% PAN
  2.9% CDS
  1.8% Livre
  2.9% Others/Invalid
12.6% Undecided

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

3.3 António Costa
3.0 João Cotrim Figueiredo
2.8 Rui Rio
2.8 Rui Tavares
2.6 Inês Sousa Real
2.6 Nuno Melo
2.5 Catarina Martins
2.0 André Ventura
1.9 Jerónimo de Sousa

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 May 2022. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Some political updates:

- A general strike is happening this Friday. Schools, public services like hospitals, finance offices and others, are closed or with a lot of services limited. Unions say that the turnout is around 80-90%, and there's a schedule rally in Lisbon against the government. The strike was called against the government's proposal to increase public sector wages by just 0.9% this year, which Unions consider an unacceptable number due to rising inflation;

- The relation between President Marcelo and the Government is passing through another "complicated" period. During this week, two episodes created tensions between the President and the Government. The first was because of the ongoing Metadata law fiasco, in which the President said that any new law arriving at his desk would go immediately to the Courts. The PS was surprised by the President's reaction and called it "peculiar". The other episode was regarding Costa's trip to Ukraine. Without warning, the President announced that Costa was going to Ukraine during the weekend, and this infuriated the PS and the government as Costa demanded total secrecy about his trip;

- Judicial problems and controversies continue to plague the two main parties: a PSD MP is going on trial because of a big case regarding fraud on state subsidies to industries in the Braga district region. Also today, it's being reported that a PS MP is being accused of raping a foreign woman. The MP says that he indeed had sexual relations with this woman but says it was consensual and denies any accusation of rape. And indeed, the DA office is considering closing the case as they don't have evidences of a crime;

- A new discussion and vote regarding the legalization of Euthanasia is schedule for the second week of June, on June 9th. So far, PS and PAN have presented proposals to be discussed and voted. However, it's unclear if this new law will succeed. The first bill was rejected by the Courts, and the second was vetoed by President Marcelo;

[Mike88]

High tensions in Lisbon: Traffic changes against the wishes of Mayor Moedas are creating a "political storm" between him and the opposition.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1527970094088871936

Mobility divides blocks in the Chamber. Moedas accused of victimization for protesting every measure passed on the left

If the relation between Mayor Moedas and his opposition was always bad, in the last few days it became worse. Last week, Lisbon City Council, which has a left majority, approved a Livre proposal to close Liberty Avenue on all Sundays and Holidays, and a reduction of maximum speed of 10km in every road in Lisbon city. The proposal was approved by PS, Livre and BE, and rejected by PSD/CDS with the abstention of CDU. Moedas is furious with this approval and says he will not implement this unless he has proof this will not complicate the mobility and lives of Lisbon inhabitants. Business owners are also furious by the approval and accuse the left of blocking Moedas, an accusation supported by the PSD. On their side, the left, PS+Livre, accuse Moedas of victimization and of trashing every leftwing proposal.

The media, and several pundits, reaction is also suggesting that the left, mainly the PS, is still upset for losing Lisbon last September and are persuing a strategy of "boycott" to Moedas. Some predict that Lisbon could be heading to a by-election at some point in the next few years.

[Mike88]

Observador newspaper, for some reason, made a vote compass for the PSD leadership ballot.

Here it is: https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-qual-o-candidato-a-lider-do-psd-mais-proximo-de-si/

My results were:

62% Luís Montenegro
49% Jorge Moreira da Silva

[Mike88]

2022 budget: Parliament enters in the final phase with the discussion of change proposals by parties.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1528725242419593216

Final global voting is scheduled for May 27th. State Budget 2022: Government welcomes ideas from Livre, PAN and PSD Madeira

Since Monday to this Thursday, Parliament is discussing changes in the draft budget approved by the government. All parties proposed changes, almost 1,500 of them, but the government is only letting pass some policies proposed by PAN, Livre and by the 3 MPs from PSD-Madeira. The Madeira MPs have "in the bag" around 40 proposals that go from tax cuts for some items in Madeira, to a deal to let more companies enter in the Madeira Free Trade Zone. PAN saw some of their proposals approved, like the public disclosure of state funding for all associations, while Livre saw the government approving their proposal for a VAT reduction from 23% to 6% of some menstrual hygiene products.

However, the rest of proposals, as expected, are being blocked by the PS majority and some with strong accusations between Government and Opposition. PAN wanted to approve a menstrual leave, like recently approved in Spain, but it was rejected, twice, with the votes of PS, PSD, CHEGA and IL. Rightwing parties accused PAN of "foolish feminism", while PAN accused them of being "sexists". Other tense situation was when the PS proposed a change to the budget during the debate, which was against the rules. The PSD was furious and accused the PS of "trickery", but the PS majority was enough to change the rules and the proposal passed. The proposal was to raise the debt ceiling for local governments. Another tense situation, that created accusations between PS, PSD and CHEGA, was when a CHEGA MP called the PS "hypocrites" which infuriated the PS caucus. The PS asked for a series of papers with the definition of hypocrite be printed and handed out to MPs. In response, the PSD accused the PS of "playing around" and that Parliament is a place for serious debate.

The final budget vote is schedule for Friday, 27 May.

[crals]

Observador newspaper, for some reason, made a vote compass for the PSD leadership ballot.

Here it is: https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-qual-o-candidato-a-lider-do-psd-mais-proximo-de-si/

My results were:

62% Luís Montenegro
49% Jorge Moreira da Silva

68% Jorge Moreira da Silva
53% Luís Montenegro

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio on the PSD leadership election:

Q: Who's the best candidate to lead the PSD?

PSD voters:

41% Luís Montenegro
22% Jorge Moreira da Silva
37% Undecided

All voters:

21% Luís Montenegro
21% Jorge Moreira da Silva
58% Undecided

Poll released on 19 and 24 May 2022. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.45%.

[Mike88]

Final vote of the 2022 budget: Budget passes with the sole votes of the PS, but with a last minute surprise.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1530160982995128321

Budget approved. 120 votes in favour, 5 abstentions and 105 against

The 2022 budget was put to a final vote early this afternoon. After a week of discussions and votes for changes in the budget, with few being approved and the majority were from PAN, Livre and PSD-Madeira, the final vote had the PS being the only party approving the budget, while PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP and BE rejected the final budget. PAN and Livre abstained, but it was the 3 MPs of PSD-Madeira that were the surprise. These 3 MPs abstained after the Madeira government was successful in including in the budget several policies like tax cuts, more support for the region's Free Trade Zone and more money for investments like the new Madeira Central Hospital. However, the PSD caucus leader was upset with the vote and will ask the PSD tribunal what kind of penalties could the 3 MPs suffer.

Party reactions to the budget showed a clear division PS vs the rest of parties left to right: PS said this budget was a budget of "dialogue" and "humility" as the opposition's voice was heard, but accused the opposition of talking of a country that not exists. The PSD accused the government of creating a budget that "enriches the State and impoverishes the Portuguese", adding that the government is making deaf ears to inflation and the consequences of the Ukrainian war. CHEGA trashed the budget as a plan to give subsidies to everyone and predicted that Costa will lead Portugal to bankruptcy, while IL said that the budget is bad for families and businesses. PCP labeled the budget as a "farce" and that the government didn't want a real dialogue with the opposition. On their part, BE accused Costa of having a budget that hurts workers and that big businesses with big profits will be scot-free with this budget. PAN said that the budget was improved by some of their policies, but was sorry that the PS was against a menstrual leave and other policies, while Livre said it will continue to help the PS in improving policies, but hopes that the PS continues willing to dialogue.

In the end, the final vote was as follow:

120 In favour (PS)
105 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP, BE)
    5 Abstention (PSD-Madeira, PAN, Livre)

The new budget is set to come into force on July 1st.

[windjammer]

If the PS loses its absolute majority for the next elections. Which parties would be the most likely to join a coalition with them or to support them from inside? PAN I Guess? What about the far left parties or the liberal party?

[Mike88]

If the PS loses its absolute majority for the next elections. Which parties would be the most likely to join a coalition with them or to support them from inside? PAN I Guess? What about the far left parties or the liberal party?

That's a tricky question because it's almost certain that Costa will not run for a 4th time, and in that event almost everything changes in terms of the PS position regarding the left parties. If it was now, Livre would be the PS preferred choice as the party is becoming more and more close to the PS. PAN could be an alternative, but their relationship with the PS is complicated because of some topics like bullfighting, and that would create problems between them. BE and PCP are completely "divorced" from the PS for reasons everybody knows, and, in the case of PCP, their pro-Russian position in the ongoing war made things even more toxic. IL will never align with the PS as it would be political suicide for them as they want to grow on the right and even, if possible, surpass the PSD. Making deals with the PS would end that "dream" and would probably kill them, I mean, their whole platform is that Portugal is living in a "Socialist Nightmare", so, yeah, it would be a disaster for them.

Now, by the next general election, either in 2024 or 2026, the most likely successor of Costa in the PS leadership, continues to be Pedro Nuno Santos who wants closer links between the PS and the leftwing (BE+PCP). Costa doesn't want Nuno Santos as leader, that's why many consider that he "flooded" the government with possible successors in order to test them, and of them Medina seems his favourite, but he's still very unpopular plus he has literally no charisma, and is still involved in the whole Russiagate thing, that the DA now wants to send to the Courts. If Medina somehow succeeds Costa, he would pursue Costa's strategy.

So, with Costa, the PS is having very good relations with Livre, and is tolerating PAN. But, in a post-Costa election, things become complicated as Nuno Santos wants a more leftwing PS, while the Costa moderate faction doesn't.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot today:

Around 44,500 PSD members are registered to vote in the ballot. Polls open at 2pm and close at 8pm. A live vote count tracker will be available in a the PSD website.

Results page: https://resultados.psd.pt/

The media characterizes the campaign as "dull" and "turn off", adding that the party is deeply apathetic and still in shock with the 2022 election results. Many pundits believe the next PSD leader will have a hard time in opposition, mainly because the two candidates on the race are not seen as "Prime Ministerial material", and also because Costa still dominates the political scene. Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas popularity could also haunt the next leadership within the party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This budget confirms my impression that Costa has been mediocre lately - I sure hope Nuno Santos becomes PS leader (maybe sooner rather than later if Costa leaves for the EU in 2024? that sounds like a win-win as a leftist although I'm not sure how the electorate would take it) and moves the party leftwards again. Medina is also a total dud and terrible for non-ideological reasons so... Of course after all of this I also hope that among the left-wing parties, one of them dies and the other rebounds - the PCP's behaviour has been amazingly bad.

Also congratulations in advance to Luís Montenegro, who in a few hours is going to become new PSD leader barring a catastrophic collapse and polling error. Of course, even if it may be dull, I am eagerly awaiting a map of the results .

[Mike88]

This budget confirms my impression that Costa has been mediocre lately - I sure hope Nuno Santos becomes PS leader (maybe sooner rather than later if Costa leaves for the EU in 2024? that sounds like a win-win as a leftist although I'm not sure how the electorate would take it) and moves the party leftwards again. Medina is also a total dud and terrible for non-ideological reasons so... Of course after all of this I also hope that among the left-wing parties, one of them dies and the other rebounds - the PCP's behaviour has been amazingly bad.

Also congratulations in advance to Luís Montenegro, who in a few hours is going to become new PSD leader barring a catastrophic collapse and polling error. Of course, even if it may be dull, I am eagerly awaiting a map of the results .

Well, there's almost universal consensus that when Costa leaves the PS leadership, the party could go downhill. I mean, Costa to a vast section of the electorate is a safe bet, someone who will not rock the boat, will not make a lot of changes and just manages things calmly. But if he resigns in 2024 to go to the EU, he has denied such intentions but, who knows, the electorate response may not be positive. In 2004 when Durão Barroso resigned to become Commission President, the electorate was pissed and interpreted it as an escape, as in "things weren't going well, so he fled". Costa has a majority, Marcelo warned him to not "escape" in the middle of his term, so Costa is a bit trapped and any excuse will be a bad excuse, if he decides to go to the EU. In that even, Nuno Santos, which isn't also a very popular figure, plus has the toxic TAP airlines dossier is his hands, a "kind" gift from Costa , would probably suffer the electorate's fury for a snap election and could lose that election. Adding to that, his more left wing approach may be a turn off to voters, plus possible divisions within the PS. On the leftwing PAN and PCP are completely on the ropes, BE is totally bankrupt and, so far, only Livre is holding on and could make gains in the short term. We'll see.

Polls for the PSD ballot opened 2 hours ago.

Observador newspaper has a live news update: https://observador.pt/liveblogs/psd-escolhe-este-sabado-sucessor-de-rio/

SIC Notícias also has one: https://sicnoticias.pt/pais/especial-eleicoes-psd-montenegro-ou-moreira-da-silva-quem-vai-suceder-a-rio/

Moreira da Silva has already voted but didn't talk that much to the press. Montenegro hasn't voted yet. President Marcelo also commented on the PSD ballot, hoping that a strong opposition emerges from this ballot, as, according to the President, "a strong democracy needs a strong opposition".

Yes, Montenegro is the overwhelming favourite to win, but we'll have to wait. Like I said many times before, this is the PSD we're talking about. Expect the unexpected, and sometimes, weird.

[Mike88]

Some turnout updates in the PSD ballot:

There is no official numbers, but reporters in some polling stations say that turnout is in line with previous elections. In Porto, just before 6pm, around 50% of PSD members had cast a ballot, according to RTP.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed for the PSD leadership ballot. At 7pm, a RTP reporter on a polling station in Porto said that turnout had stalled and was now bellow previous elections. We'll have to wait to see if the overall turnout drops.

Counting is now beginning.

[Mike88]

First results: 9% counted

76.8% Luís Montenegro
23.2% Jorge Moreira da Silva

Observador newspaper says that turnout is low in some important districts.

[Mike88]

With 31% of polling stations counted, turnout is at 65% and Montenegro continues to have a wide lead:

72.1% Luís Montenegro
27.9% Jorge Moreira da Silva

[Mike88]

I've seen enough: Luís Montenegro wins the PSD leadership. By a landslide, but with a low turnout, around 62% so far.