🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[CumbrianLefty]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

30.6% PSD (+0.2)
26.9% PS (-9.0)
14.2% CHEGA (+5.1)
  8.0% IL (+2.8 )
  5.6% BE (+2.2)
  2.2% CDU (-2.1)
  1.9% Livre (-0.3)
  0.9% PAN (+0.3)
  0.0% CDS (-0.7)
  9.7% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Government approval ratings:

53% Bad/Very bad (+12)
34% Average (-6)
12% Good/Very good (-5)
  1% Undecided (-1)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

63% Disapprove (+9)
31% Approve (-10)
  6% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 January 2023. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

Finally, looks like a major shift. Has been a while coming of course.

[Mike88]

Finally, looks like a major shift. Has been a while coming of course.

The numbers may differ from polling company to polling company, but the trend is clear. The last month was just a disaster for the government. Costa needs to be more active in terms of policies, but the thing is, he has none. In fact, in the last month, he spent almost everyday putting out fires within the government and nothing regarding policy strategy. In a country with inflation at almost 10%, low wages and crumbling public services, plus with all these corruption investigations everywhere, and incompetence as well, the mood is "complicated", to say the least.

[Mike88]

Just an update: CHEGA's 467th, or so , (it's actually their 5th in 4 years) party congress will be held this weekend.

Despite the party's rapid rise in the polls, internally everything is a mess: Ventura expelled from the party members that oppose his leadership, and some say that CHEGA is just like "Venezuela".

At the same time, it has been revealed that the party will "ignore" several of the Courts demands and will not change a lot of things in their rules. So, this will end well of course.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yes, this latest polling shift is pretty significant. However it's telling that its beneficiary has been CHEGA (and to a lesser extent IL and maybe BE) in spite of the party's continued status as a joke - a testament to how weak of an opposition leader Luis Montenegro is. I see Marcelo has also not so subtly acknowledged this fact.

[Mike88]

Yes, this latest polling shift is pretty significant. However it's telling that its beneficiary has been CHEGA (and to a lesser extent IL and maybe BE) in spite of the party's continued status as a joke - a testament to how weak of an opposition leader Luis Montenegro is. I see Marcelo has also not so subtly acknowledged this fact.

Montenegro himself isn't too keen on having an election either, the PSD says they are not ready and even agree with Marcelo, even though they may "threaten" to ask an election, but that's just words. The fall was expected, like I wrote above, the last month was without description for the government and the PS. Many people aren't believing in the polls, but you have to understand the electorate: they voted for stability at all costs, giving the PS a comfortable, and unexpected, majority and in return are getting instability, divisions within the PS and no government action.

The PS numbers still reflect Costa's leadership, so just imagine when he leaves the post. Regarding Montenegro, yeah, he's weak, has literally the charisma of beetroot, but sometimes, you may only need luck on your side, and, even if he has the "Espinho" scandal in the PSD, he's been lucky to have Costa falling and Moedas, his foe within the party, being humiliated because of the whole World Youth Days fiasco.

[Mike88]

Government extinguishes the Secretary for Agriculture post after the vacancy left by Carla Alves' 25 hour term:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1618951044490469376

Decree extinguishes the Secretary of State for Agriculture

Quietly and in secret, the government has extinguished the post of Secretary of State for Agriculture. The media only found out after the decree was published in the Government's official gazette. The post was left vacant since early January after Carla Alves "brief" passage through the office for only 25 hours. She resign from office because of the disclosure that she had bank accounts seized by the police. The Agriculture ministry will now have just one secretary for fishing.

Farmers associations are already trashing the government for this decision, accusing the government of being "incompetent" and that the government is sending farmers "to go fishing", which in Portuguese language means going to hell.

[Mike88]

Government extinguishes the Secretary for Agriculture post after the vacancy left by Carla Alves' 25 hour term:

There's already confusion regarding this decision: The Government says they did not "extinguish" the post, but rather will just remain vacant.

The Government spokesperson, André Moz Caldas, gave a press conference to explain the decree that "vanishes" the Secretary for Agriculture. Mr. Caldas says that the idea of extinguishing the Secretary is false and will just remain vacant, and it could be filled at any time. Nonetheless, the responsibilities of the Secretary for Agriculture will pass to the Minister of Agriculture. Other media sources also report that the mood inside the Agriculture ministry is very bad and tense, and that many advisors and deputies have resigned in total clash with Minister Maria do Céu Antunes.

[Mike88]

Some updates:
(...)
- Tensions between teachers and the government continue. Everyday, schools across the country are closed because of the teachers strikes and protests. Another protest against the government is schedule for next Saturday, 28 January, in Lisbon city;

Teachers protest gathers around 80,000 protesters in a walk between the Education ministry and the Presidential palace:

https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1619389570747076610

The first demonstrators of the protest of teachers and non-teaching staff in Lisbon arrived shortly after 16:15 at the Palace of Belém.

In the 2nd massive protest of teachers in 2 weeks against the government, more than 80,000 protesters, according to the police, marched in Lisbon city against the government's policies on education. This time, the march started in the Education ministry building and ended in front of the Presidential Palace, Belém Palace. There, union members asked to be received by President Marcelo in order for him to press the government in the negotiations. President Marcelo has already stated he will not involve himself in government affairs and talks but advised the government to listen. The unions were received by members of the Presidential staff.

[Mike88]

Just an update: CHEGA's 467th, or so , (it's actually their 5th in 4 years) party congress will be held this weekend.

CHEGA's 5th convention ends with Ventura reelected with more than 98% of the votes:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1619804116502421504

In the closing speech at the National Convention, Ventura says that only the people will be able to establish the red lines on Chega.

Unlike other CHEGA conventions, the party's fifth one was... normal. In fact, the media is highlighting how calm, somewhat moderate and institutional the convention was, with few angry and/or inflamed speeches. However, the fact that Ventura's opposition, or harshest critics, were banned from the convention and/or the party may be one of main reasons. For the first time also, parties accepted invitations to attend the final day of the convention: The Government, PSD, IL and CDS accepted invitations. The convention reelected Ventura as leader with 98.3% of the votes (648 ballots cast) while 1.7% (11 ballots) were invalid. The two main targets in the speeches by delegates, and even Ventura himself, were PS and PSD. Regarding the PSD, Ventura says he wants to surpass the PSD and become the main opposition party, but at the same time, demands seats in cabinet in order to support a possible PSD government. On the Madeira elections, schedule for this fall, there were also contradictory positions: if Ventura is willing to support a possible PSD minority, other CHEGA members branded Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) as a "dictator".

In his speech, Ventura promissed to make CHEGA the "biggest party in Portugal" and pointed that the party is more united and matured than ever. He trashed the corruption cases in the country and said that the party wasn't born to "protest" but to "govern", adding the party will be the voice of people on the streets. He criticized those who draw "red lines" regarding CHEGA and pointed that there were no "red lines" for a party with a corrupt PM. He asked for the support of the vast Portuguese diaspora population and ended his speech by saying that Costa's time was up and that everytime CHEGA is accused of being "fascist and xenophobic", it only becomes stronger.

[Mike88]

Parish in Viana do Castelo set to vote in a referendum in order to split the parish in two next Monday, 15 August:

Another parish, Sacavém e Prior Velho, Loures municipality, Lisbon district, votes to split up but turnout was just above 10%:

Another parish has voted to split up after the change in the parish map law of 2013, that reduced by more than 1,000 the number of parishes in the country. This time it was the parish of Sacavém e Prior Velho, Loures municipality, Lisbon district, which has a population of almost 25,000 inhabitants. Voters decided overwhelmingly to split up the two parishes (88%), but turnout was just 11%. Nonetheless, the parish president says that the result is to be respected and the two parishes will be "independent" just like it was before 2013. The detailed results:

88.3% Yes, 1,936 votes
11.7% No, 256

  1.2% Blank/Invalid, 26

11.1% Turnout

[Mike88]

The new Euthanasia bill will, once again, be delayed because of a complaint from CHEGA:

Parliament rejected CHEGA's complaint and sent the bill to President Marcelo. Marcelo, almost immediately, sent the bill to the Constitutional Court:

Constitutional Court rules as unconstitutional, again, the new Euthanasia law:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1620121985035427859

Euthanasia: TC declares euthanasia again unconstitutional

By a 7-6 vote against, 6 conservative versus 6 progressive, with the Judge President João Coupers voting against, the Court has rejected, once again, the proposed law to legalize Euthanasia in Portugal. The Court ruled that several norms in the new law violate the Constitution, that the new law continues to have vague definitions for the use Euthanasia, particularly in the concept of suffering, and that the law needs to be very clear about how Euthanasia could be used. The bill will now be sent back to the President, which will not sign it and send it back to Parliament.

This will now be the 5th attempt to legalize Euthanasia in Portugal: In 2018, Parliament rejected a proposal; In March 2021, the Court rejected another proposal; In November 2021, President Marcelo vetoed a new version; And now, January 2023, the Court, again, rules the law as unconstitutional.

[Mike88]

1 year of the PS majority victory: PM Costa gave an interview to RTP and the ongoing crisis in government was the main point.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1620175145389391873

Should an accused minister resign? “It depends on the crime,” says Costa

When he marks 1 year after his surprising victory with a majority, PM Costa gave an interview to RTP1 and the ongoing cases, investigations and resignations in government were the main topic. PM Costa acknowledged that the government "messed up and made mistakes", but that his big stumble was the war in Ukraine and the rise of inflation. He said he tries to lead a "dialoguing majority" and is pursuing several policies on health, education and housing, and here, the PM announced a special cabinet meeting to deal with this last issue. The precarious situation of several cabinet members was a big topic in the interview. Questioned about the investigations around several ministers, like Fernando Medina, Costa said he doesn't want to speculate about police investigations, adding that although a minister accused of something should not remain in cabinet, he also highlighted that it depends on the type of crime and it also depends on the circumstances.

[Mike88]

Don't want to Britpost but this has a Britain circa Nov '21 - Apr '22 feel to it. During that time things were a mess but Boris (like Costa) was fairly secure.

It all turned to poo very quickly aftet that though. Things could go south all at once for Costa in the coming months if he is perceived as the root of the malaise.

President Marcelo's remarks, this morning, about the government situation:

(...)
Asked about the succession of cases and controversies in Portugal, the President of the Republic pointed to a foreign example, the executive headed by Rishi Sunak, who "in a hundred days already had I don't know how many dismissals, for ethical reasons".

In his view, this too "in Portugal now happens more than it used to", because "in today's democracies, scrutiny is very tight".
(...)

Hmm....

[Mike88]

Some updates:
(...)
- Tensions between teachers and the government continue. Everyday, schools across the country are closed because of the teachers strikes and protests. Another protest against the government is schedule for next Saturday, 28 January, in Lisbon city;

Teachers protest gathers around 80,000 protesters in a walk between the Education ministry and the Presidential palace:

Talks between teachers unions and the government fail, again, and protests and strikes will continue. New meetings to be held next week.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1621191118871199745

Teachers say "nothing came out" of the meeting with the Ministry of Education

Teachers unions left, this afternoon, from the meetings with the Education minister without no deal and not even a prospect of it. Despite having some positive signs, unions accuse the government of just wanting to reach "little deals" and that nothing came out of the meetings. New meetings between unions and the government are expected for next week, but also are protests and the ongoing strikes that last since December. Rallies against the government are also expected for next week.

[Mike88]

Other stories making headlines:

- The controversial TAP airline Parliamentary committee was approved this morning with the votes of all parties, while PS and PCP abstained. The PS is being accused of being a bit "lost" regarding this committee. The party first announced that CHEGA should have the leadership of the committee, but then accepted the Parliamentary services decision that it should be the PS having the leadership, and then was forced to correct their vote after announcing it was going vote in favour, but then retracted, or rather corrected, and abstained. All of this in the same day. The new story regarding TAP is that its CEO bonus was not approved by the company, which could mean that her current job contract may be illegal;

- If current polls suggest that the PS fall is indisputable, that PSD goes up and down, a bit, but remains stable, that CHEGA sees a big surge, that IL seems to be recovering, let's see how the new leader will impact the party, that BE also seems to be recovering, and that other parties are polling very low, the discussion now, and once again, is what will the PSD do about CHEGA. In the party's convention last week, Ventura demanded seats in a possible PSD cabinet, but the PSD is silent and divided on this. If some PSD members are arguing this is not the time to discuss this, others say that such idea is a "fantasy" and others even argue that the PSD should, once and for all, reject any future talks with CHEGA;

- Biweekly Q&A debates with the PM may be back after a brief 3-year interregnum. The announcement was made by the PSD caucus leader in an Expresso newspaper interview, and shortly after, it was confirmed by PS sources. The deal is set to be official until the end of February. Biweekly debates were scrapped back in the summer of 2020 by a PS-PSD deal that was very criticized by the media and pundits, but now they are back... by a PS-PSD deal, again. ;

- A drug problem is rising in Porto city and Mayor Rui Moreira is asking the government to forbid drug consumption on the streets and that the Interior minister should not "sweep the problem under the rug". However, Mr. Moreira is being accused of wanting to "set back" the 2001 drug decriminalization law and even received a sign letter, by several people, against his proposal. At the same time, newspapers also report that the PSD is "flirting" with Moreira regarding the possibility of him leading the PSD EP election list in 2024;

[Mike88]

(...) In the party's convention last week, Ventura demanded seats in a possible PSD cabinet, but the PSD is silent and divided on this. If some PSD members are arguing this is not the time to discuss this, others say that such idea is a "fantasy" and others even argue that the PSD should, once and for all, reject any future talks with CHEGA;

Speaking of CHEGA, this cringe moment happened this morning in Parliament:

In a parliamentary vote, to remove or not, the parliamentary immunity of BE leader Catarina Martins because of her remarks, a year ago, that "each racist MP elected in Parliament, one is already too many". CHEGA filed a lawsuit against Catarina Martins and the DA office asked for the removal of her immunity in order to go to trial. But, Parliament rejected the DA's request saying that the remark was made in the "context of political party confrontation" and that removing her immunity would be limiting her free exercise an a member of Parliament. CHEGA MPs didn't liked the decision and the 12 MPs all raised posters with Ms. Martins face and the word "impunity" underneath.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira on the 2023 Madeira election:

Vote share %: (after 28.6% of undecideds/non-voting are distributed and compared with the 2019 results)

45.2% PSD/CDS (nc)
29.5% PS (-6.3)
  8.4% JPP (+2.9)
  6.7% CHEGA (+6.3)
  4.2% IL (+3.7)
  2.1% BE (+0.4)
  1.7% PAN (+0.2)
  1.1% CDU (-0.7)
  1.1% Others/Invalid (-6.5)

Poll conducted between 20 and 30 January 2023. Polled 400 voters. MoE of 4.90%.

[crals]

If the Madeiran government doesn't get an outright majority it seems they'll be able to easily carry on by reaching a deal with IL, avoiding the Chega question. Albuquerque isn't in any real danger.

[Mike88]

If the Madeiran government doesn't get an outright majority it seems they'll be able to easily carry on by reaching a deal with IL, avoiding the Chega question. Albuquerque isn't in any real danger.

Who will be on top is not a question, the PSD coalition will certainly be the most voted list, but the big doubt is if they will hold their majority. IL-Madeira has been saying that the PSD-Madeira is a "socialist" party and they will never talk to "Socialist" parties. CHEGA is "open" to the idea of supporting a PSD minority in Madeira, but that's something that gives the PSD "shivers" as it would embarrass the national party and "throw more logs into the fire" on the whole PSD-CHEGA discussion. A PS-led coalition is basically impossible as the PS is weakened in Madeira, plus BE and CDU are polling badly, and their relationship with JPP is "complicated".

We'll see, the election is schedule for late September, 24 September or 1 October, so a lot could still happen by then. Just for curiosity, by this time in 2019, the PS was leading the PSD in some polls.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What is JPP's deal beyond being a Madeira-only party? Wikipedia calls it "centrist" but of course that's hardly useful.

[Mike88]

What is JPP's deal beyond being a Madeira-only party? Wikipedia calls it "centrist" but of course that's hardly useful.

Beyond Madeira, JPP is zero, literally, Just for example, outside Madeira, JPP only got 2,214 votes in the 2022 general elections. JPP is basically a regional party formed from an independent movement to contest the 2013 local elections in Santa Cruz city, the 2nd largest city in Madeira. The movement won Santa Cruz in 2013 and became an official party in 2014. It's a "catch-all" centrist party focused on local issues that tries to appeal to voters disappointed and/or frustrated by PSD and PS. It only has a strong base in Madeira and is basically nonexistent in the rest of the country.

[Mike88]

Resignations and confusions within cabinet may have cool down in the last few weeks, but several ministers continue under fire and in a precarious situation, such as the Agriculture, Education, Finance and Foreign Affairs ministers.

This last one, João Gomes Cravinho, foreign affairs minister and former defense minister until 2022, is under fire, again, for his "weird", to say the least, explanations to MPs. Mr. Cravinho is involved in a few controversies, from having a business partner that was convicted for fraud to failing to inform the Constitutional Court of the profits he had in his business. But, the case surrounding the shady deals, worth millions, to rehabilitate a military hospital in Lisbon, that is now empty , is putting the minister, again, in a complicated situation.

The main issue here is why did the minister hired a man, Alberto Costa, who was suspected of doing several illegal practices, to manage the construction works, and was he informed, or not, of the budget slippage of millions of euros in the hospital rehabilitation. In Parliament this morning, the minister acknowledged that it was a mistake to hire Alberto Costa and that he "devalued" his resume, however, it's his response about the budget slippage that is rising eyebrows. Despite saying he didn't disapprove, because he says he was unaware of it, Mr. Cravinho told MPs that the e-mail that had the info on the budget was blocked by his office server because it was "too heavy" and exceeded the size permitted by the server. This response was mocked by MPs and is surprising pundits.

[Mike88]

Former Infrastructure minister Pedro Nuno Santos will become a political pundit after September:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1623434308139507712

Television: Pedro Nuno Santos will be a commentator for SIC Notícias in September

Pedro Nuno Santos (PNS), former infrastructure minister, will be a political pundit/commentator after September in SIC Notícias channel. The news is being reported by Público newspaper that also adds that before the Summer, Nuno Santos will give a major interview to SIC TV. His television program format and launch day are still being negotiated, says the newspaper. PNS will also resume his seat in Parliament after the summer as he extended his suspension until July. PNS resigned from Costa's cabinet late last December following the whole TAP airlines "Alexandra Reis compensation" fiasco and his role, plus knowledge of everything, is still discussed and a liability.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira on the 2023 Madeira election:

Vote share %: (after 28.6% of undecideds/non-voting are distributed and compared with the 2019 results)

45.2% PSD/CDS (nc)
29.5% PS (-6.3)
  8.4% JPP (+2.9)
  6.7% CHEGA (+6.3)
  4.2% IL (+3.7)
  2.1% BE (+0.4)
  1.7% PAN (+0.2)
  1.1% CDU (-0.7)
  1.1% Others/Invalid (-6.5)

Poll conducted between 20 and 30 January 2023. Polled 400 voters. MoE of 4.90%.

Adding to the above, popularity of the main party leaders in Madeira by Intercampus poll:

Popularity: (positive/negative)

Miguel Albuquerque (PSD) - 46.0%/10.5%
Filipe Sousa (JPP) - 15.8%/3.0%
Sérgio Gonçalves (PS) - 10.2%/8.2%
Rui Barreto (CDS) - 4.5%/6.8%
Edgar Silva (CDU) - 1.8%/3.0%
Joaquim Sousa (PAN) - 1.5%/3.5%
Miguel Castro (CHEGA) - 1.5%/10.2%
Nuno Morna (IL) - 1.0%/3.0%
Dina Letra (BE) - 0.8%/4.8%

[Mike88]

An advisor to the Social Security minister is being news for her "weird" social media post:

Advisor to the Social Security and Labour minister proposes occupying the 25 April Bridge to highlight the housing problem in Portugal.

In a social media post, from a RTP3 program in which she was interviewed, Inês Franco Alexandre, advisor to the Social Security minister, Ana Mendes Godinho, since a few days ago, proposed occupying and shutting down the 25 April Bridge to highlight the housing problem in Portugal, saying that the bridge should be closed until everyone is heard. To "help" this occupation, she also asked for the sponsorship of Decathlon in order to have... well, tents.

She went on to say that she's an activist and that she always said she would never work for the government, but that she changed her mind and understood that you can only change the system "from within".