🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2026 Presidential election:

Q: Which candidate would you prefer for President?

15.9% Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo
15.2% Pedro Passos Coelho
  9.6% António Costa
  8.6% Ana Gomes
  7.3% Luís Marques Mendes
  6.3% Paulo Portas
  6.1% André Ventura
  5.8% Augusto Santos Silva
  4.0% Mariana Mortágua
  3.3% João Ferreira
  2.1% João Cotrim Figueiredo
15.9% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 November 2022. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Remember this?

Last week, CHEGA also announced they will not support the PSD/CDS/PPM government 2023 budget and that their support for the regional government was "over". However, all of the parties in the Azores "rolled their eyes" to CHEGA's position and criticized the party for its timing and for not being credible anymore. The sole Independent MP in the Azores assembly, a former CHEGA MP, even accused the party of being "hungry for attention" and that the party's position is a non issue as they change positions over and over again.

Well, the Azores 2023 budget vote was this afternoon and CHEGA... voted in favour:

The Azores 2023 budget was approved this afternoon by the regional parliament with the votes of PSD, CDS, PPM, CHEGA, IL, PAN and an Independent MP (CHEGA dissident). The PS and BE voted against. This was the first vote in general. Now, parties will present changes to the budget that will have to be approved by regional MPs. Only 4 parties presented changes, PS, BE, PAN and IL, for a total of 36 proposed changes.

Against all odds, it seems that Bolieiro will hold on until 2024.

[Mike88]

The final draft of the 2023 budget will be voted tomorrow, and since Monday parties have been discussing and voting on more than 1,000 policy changes to the budget. Only a few were approved, as the PS has a majority and is rejecting the overwhelming majority of these proposed changes. But, this morning, Speaker Augusto Santos Silva had a "tense" moment with police officers who were not opening the public galleries and thus delaying the start of the Parliamentary session:

Clearly upset, Santos Silva complained that a police officer in the galleries was disobeying his order and demanded that he obliged by his decision. He asked 3 times the officer to open the galleries and that his order had to be accomplished immediately. A few seconds later, the police officer finally opened the door of the galleries. The reason for this "tension" was this: because there were no people in line to enter in the galleries, the police officer closed the door, unaware that with that simple gesture, he was blocking Parliament from starting its normal session.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 15.9% of undecideds are excluded)

28.8% PS (-4.4)
26.2% PSD (-2.9)
13.6% CHEGA (+2.7)
  8.0% IL (-0.6)
  7.3% BE (+0.2)
  6.4% CDU (+3.4)
  2.7% Livre (+0.1)
  2.7% PAN (+0.6)
  1.6% CDS (+0.9)
  2.7% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.8 António Costa (nc)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.8 Luís Montenegro (nc)
2.6 Rui Tavares (+0.1)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (+0.1)
2.5 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.5 Nuno Melo (+0.1)
2.2 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.2)
2.1 André Ventura (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 November 2022. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[CumbrianLefty]

What was the PCP's attitude towards the 1984 Olympics I wonder.

Had to look it up, but found nothing

Not that hard to guess, though? This after all is the party whose response to the fall of the Berlin Wall was to demand that it be rebuilt

[Mike88]

What was the PCP's attitude towards the 1984 Olympics I wonder.

Had to look it up, but found nothing

Not that hard to guess, though? This after all is the party whose response to the fall of the Berlin Wall was to demand that it be rebuilt

They probably didn't like that the "imperialist" USA hosted the Games, but, alas. They actually accuse the US, NATO, etc, of being the "real" builders of the wall and of creating a campaign to "slander" the former GDR. My favourite take from PCP continues to be their position regarding North Korea: "Is North Korea not a democracy? Well, that's an opinion. What is democracy? First, we would have to discuss what is democracy."

[VPH]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 15.9% of undecideds are excluded)

28.8% PS (-4.4)
26.2% PSD (-2.9)
13.6% CHEGA (+2.7)
  8.0% IL (-0.6)
  7.3% BE (+0.2)
  6.4% CDU (+3.4)
  2.7% Livre (+0.1)
  2.7% PAN (+0.6)
  1.6% CDS (+0.9)
  2.7% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Hm, what explains PCP's sudden gain in the polls? New leadership? I would have expected discontented PS voters to gravitate more to Livre and BE than PCP.

[Mike88]

Final draft of the 2023 budget approved:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1596135241210802176

State budget for 2023 approved in final global vote

Parliament approved, early this afternoon, the final draft of the 2023 budget with the sole votes of the PS. In the last four weeks, MPs had been discussing and voting more than 1,000 changes to the budget, but 97% of them were rejected by the PS majority. In the closing statements, the Government, by the voice of Pedro Nuno Santos, warned that the country was going through a difficult time with rising inflation and rising cost of living, but pointed that, since 2015, the PS governments have given answers to the country's problems, highlighting the rise of the minimum wage and GDP growth. He accused the Right of only thinking about tax cuts, while the Government proposes a budget with fiscal responsibility and strong emphasis on mobility, housing and a green economy.

The PS accused the PSD of wanting a return to the "Passismo" times and of praying for the country to get worse, adding that the 2023 budget is a safeguard for the country in the complex times we are living. On their part, the PSD labeled the government as in "end of cycle" mode, saying that "8 months look like 8 years", adding that the government is in paralysis and involved in scandal after scandal. CHEGA, or rather Ventura, asked for a "rightwing majority" and used the 25 November date to say that today is a good day to start "the fall of the government". IL accused the PS majority of approving a mediocre budget, with no ambition and that changes nothing, highlighting a report, printed today, that shows that Romania is set to surpass Portugal in GDP per capita by 2024. PCP accused the PS/Government of just wanting to please business leaders and of hurting families and workers by pursuing "policies of impoverishment". BE said the Costa's government had no conscience of what is doing to the country and accuse the Government of governing like the rightwing. PAN applauded the government for some policies that were approved like VAT cuts for bicycles, but said that the budget is not enough. Livre said that the budget should have had a stronger social approach, and asked for a return of the "spirit of the Geringonça". In the end, the vote was the following:

116 In favour (PS)
105 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, PCP, BE)
    2 Abstention (PAN, Livre)
    7 Absent (4 PS, 3 PSD)

In reaction to the budget approval, PM Costa said, in a short statement, that the budget is focused on the future and that he will continue the good work of the last 7 years, adding he will also continue to work hard in order for Portugal to converge with the richest countries in the EU. PSD leader Luís Montenegro accused Costa of promoting a "dialog simulacrum" and accused Costa of leading Portugal to the "broom car of Europe", adding that there are no signs of hope from this government.

[Mike88]

 6.4% CDU (+3.4)

Hm, what explains PCP's sudden gain in the polls? New leadership? I would have expected discontented PS voters to gravitate more to Livre and BE than PCP.

I was also surprised by those numbers. Not sure if this is just Intercampus with their sometimes weird numbers or an actual trend. I believe there will be more polling, so we will be able to compare it.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

35.1% PS (-1.1)
30.4% PSD (+0.4)
  8.2% CHEGA (-1.1)
  6.1% IL (-1.9)
  5.1% CDU (+1.3)
  3.8% BE (-0.1)
  2.0% Livre (+1.0)
  1.3% CDS (-0.3)
  1.2% PAN (nc)
  6.8% Others/Invalid (+1.7)

Government approval ratings:

47% Average (+6)
32% Bad/Very bad (-10)
19% Good/Very good (+4)
  2% Undecided (nc)

Prime Minister António Costa's approval rating:

47% Disapprove (-7)
44% Approve (+4)
  9% Undecided (+3)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 November 2022. Polled 828 voters. MoE of 3.48%.

The CDU surge seems to be a real thing.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The CDU surge seems to be a real thing.

Alentejo hick Marxism will live on to another day... on the other hand, the (prospective) change in leader seems to have not been beneficial to IL. On this note, who is the favourite to succeed Figueiredo?

[Mike88]

The CDU surge seems to be a real thing.

Alentejo hick Marxism will live on to another day... on the other hand, the (prospective) change in leader seems to have not been beneficial to IL. On this note, who is the favourite to succeed Figueiredo?

The media coverage around PCP's new leader and so on, may have been beneficial for the party, adding to this, probably, the discontent with the PS from leftwing voters and the need to give their support to someone. Raimundo seems to be having a little "honey moon" period, but let's see if it lasts or if it's just a bounce.

No one understood the reasons Figueiredo gave to leave the leadership, they were a bit forced, IMO. Nonetheless, everyone expects a very close leadership ballot. Figueiredo and his team support Rui Rocha, but Carla Castro seems to be very popular with the party's base, even if she refused a deal with the most conservative wing of the party. In practice, Rocha should have the edge because of the party machine, but Castro could win with the support of the grass routes. Around 6,000 members will decide next January.

[Mike88]

The "Romania is set to surpass Portugal" report is becoming an embarrassment:

The media and pundits have been picking up Expresso newspaper report that by 2024, Romania is set to surpass Portugal in terms of GDP PPP per capita. Many criticize the government for leading Portugal to the last places, in terms of wealth, in Europe. In 2000, Portugal was the 15th richest country in the EU, with 85.3% compared with the EU's average, while Romania was at 26.3%. By 2024, it's forecast that Romania will be at 79.0% and Portugal at 78.8%, dropping to 20th place.

The government downplays the report, pointing to some of Romania's positions in terms of social development and that the war and inflation could stop other countries from joining the EU.

[Mike88]

António Costa "fires" Economy secretary from the government. Tourism secretary could also be out:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1597608008019738624

António Costa dismisses Secretary of State for the Economy

The media is reporting that PM Costa has sacked his Economy secretary, João Neves, and the Tourism secretary, Rita Marques, is also expected to be out. Behind these sackings seems to be deep policy conflicts between the secretaries and the minister of Economy, António Costa Silva. The media reports that one of the main policy "clashes" between the Economy minister and the secretary were Corporate tax cuts, in which Costa Silva wanted an universal cut, while João Neves disagreed and rejected a tax cut.

It's quite unusual for Costa to sack government members without a serious reason, even when there is one, he has a tradition to support them until it's unbearable. We'll wait for more updates on these sackings.

Expresso newspaper, however, adds that a "wider" reshuffle could be on the making with possible changes in other ministries and the nomination of a new deputy secretary of the PM, after the resignation of disgraced Miguel Alves.

[Mike88]

Expresso newspaper, however, adds that a "wider" reshuffle could be on the making with possible changes in other ministries and the nomination of a new deputy secretary of the PM, after the resignation of disgraced Miguel Alves.

The Tourism Secretary has indeed been sacked too. The names of the new secretaries and Costa's new deputy secretary have been announced, plus, a reshuffle of secretaries in the Finance Ministry:

Deputy Secretary of the Prime Minister: António Mendonça Mendes, Incumbent Secretary of Fiscal Affairs;
Economy Secretary: Pedro Cilínio, Businessman;
Tourism Secretary: Nuno Fazenda de Almeida, PS MP;
Fiscal Affairs Secretary: Nuno Félix, Incumbent Deputy Director General for Relations with Taxpayers;
Finance Secretary: João Nuno Mendes, Incumbent Treasure Secretary;
Treasure Secretary: Alexandra Reis, Incumbent Chairwoman of the Air Navigation of Portugal company;

The swearing in of the new secretaries will be on Friday.

[Mike88]

Two issues dominating this week:

- Fuel prices rose this week, ending a 7 week drop, because of the government's decision to lower the discount of the fuel tax, thus increasing the tax and the final price to consumers. Fuel markets were predicting a 3 and 1.5 cent decrease, this week, on diesel and gasoline respectively, but, because of the government's decision, fuel prices rose 1.8 cents for diesel and 1.4 cents for gasoline. Parties, left to right, are criticizing the government for this decision, calling it "unbelievable" and "unjust". Economists also trash the government saying this could increase even more inflation.

The government, by the voice of the new Fiscal Affairs Secretary, Nuno Félix, said that fuel prices are now at the same level they were before the war and that the plan, from the beginning, was to reduce the tax discount as fuel prices came back to normal levels. The Secretary adds that even though there was a rise in fuel prices, the tax discount is still substantial.

- The long and never ending saga of Euthanasia legalization in Portugal enters another week. After MPs postponed 3 times a final vote on the final draft bill, after a series of legalization bill were approved last Summer, Parliament is set to vote on the final draft this week, Wednesday it seems. But, if the outcome is predictable, a clear Yes vote, the following steps are much more in doubt. President Marcelo, who is not very favourable to a legalization bill, isn't giving a clear position and says he will only make a decision when he reads the bill. Last week, Marcelo received a CHEGA delegation which asked Marcelo to veto the law.

The PSD, a party quite divided on the matter, will give freedom of vote to their MPs on the legalization bill but will present another bill: a referendum on euthanasia. Party leader, Luís Montenegro, presented the proposal this Monday morning saying that this matter is still "controversial" and even though there has been a mature debate regarding it, the final decision should be from voters. The party will force mandatory vote in the Caucus, except for those MPs who in the past voted against a referendum.

In the end, the bill could be vetoed by the President, but approved again by Parliament and become law anyway. It could also be sent to the Courts by the President and/or Political parties and here a rejection is very likely due to the current Conservative majority in the Constitutional Court. We'll see the next episodes.

[Mike88]

Party leader, Luís Montenegro, presented the proposal this Monday morning saying that this matter is still "controversial" and even though there has been a mature debate regarding it, the final decision should be from voters.

The PSD decision to propose a referendum is being criticized by other parties for different reasons: PS accuses PSD of "siding" with the extreme-right by proposing a referendum, while PSD counter-attacks by saying that many in the party, including Montenegro, support a referendum for a long time. CHEGA, who also supports a referendum, criticized the PSD proposal by saying it's unconstitutional because a previous motion for a referendum was rejected in the current Parliamentary session. CHEGA, however, proposes a "grand deal" between them, PS, PSD and IL for a referendum.

Pundits seems to be divided: Correio da Manhã editorial is in favour of a referendum, and in Visão magazine, opinions in favour of a referendum are also found. Público newspaper editorial, however, says that the PSD proposal doesn't make sense as it's too little too late.

Polls regarding the possibility of a referendum on Euthanasia seem to point to a general approval by voters. Some examples I found:

Q: Euthanasia legalization should be decided in a referendum?         

Eurosondagem poll, March 2020:

41% Yes
37% No
22% Undecided

Eurosondagem poll, February 2017:

44.1% Yes
32.7% No
23.2% Undecided

[RodPresident]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2026 Presidential election:

Q: Which candidate would you prefer for President?

15.9% Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo
15.2% Pedro Passos Coelho
  9.6% António Costa
  8.6% Ana Gomes
  7.3% Luís Marques Mendes
  6.3% Paulo Portas
  6.1% André Ventura
  5.8% Augusto Santos Silva
  4.0% Mariana Mortágua
  3.3% João Ferreira
  2.1% João Cotrim Figueiredo
15.9% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 November 2022. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Would Durao Barroso be a more likely PSD candidate than Passos Coelho? Or Guterres leaving UN early to run as PS candidate?

[Mike88]

Would Durao Barroso be a more likely PSD candidate than Passos Coelho? Or Guterres leaving UN early to run as PS candidate?

Not a chance. Durão Barroso is still very badly seen because of his "departure" to the EU Commission in 2004. Many people, including in the PSD, don't forgive him for leaving the country like that and, in the case of the PSD, of leaving the party basically in tatters. Not to mention, that Durão departure basically led the way to the arrival of Sócrates to power, so it's someone still a bit toxic and with very little support. Plus, why would he switch his cozy Goldman Sachs job for the Portuguese Presidency?

Guterres is also very unlikely. He left power in 2002 very frustrated, and upset, with politics and his party because of the scandals and problems that emerged in his 2nd term (1999-2002), and since then, has been only committed to human rights causes. Plus, age is a factor. By 2026, he would 77 and that would be an issue. But, like Durão, Guterres, IMO, has no interest in the Presidency. He had his opportunity in 2016 and he declined.

[Mike88]

Party leader, Luís Montenegro, presented the proposal this Monday morning saying that this matter is still "controversial" and even though there has been a mature debate regarding it, the final decision should be from voters.

The PSD decision to propose a referendum is being criticized by other parties for different reasons: PS accuses PSD of "siding" with the extreme-right by proposing a referendum, while PSD counter-attacks by saying that many in the party, including Montenegro, support a referendum for a long time. CHEGA, who also supports a referendum, criticized the PSD proposal by saying it's unconstitutional because a previous motion for a referendum was rejected in the current Parliamentary session. CHEGA, however, proposes a "grand deal" between them, PS, PSD and IL for a referendum.

As expected, the Speaker rejected the PSD proposal for a referendum to be voted in Parliament. The Speaker said that a similar proposal, from CHEGA, was voted in the current Parliamentary session and, therefore, could not be voted by MPs. Nonetheless, the PSD will appeal the Speaker's decision and will ask for a vote on this matter on Friday.

Also today, the Parliamentary committee for Constitutional Affairs approved the final draft of the new Euthanasia legalization bill with the votes in favour of PS, BE and IL. CHEGA and PCP voted against and PSD opted to abstain. The PSD tried to postpone the vote because of their referendum proposal, but that was rejected by PS, BE and IL. The bill will now be voted by all 230 MPs on Friday.

[Mike88]

Parliament approves the new Euthanasia legalization bill, which fate is now in the hands of the President:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1601214205583048705

Euthanasia: Parliament approves legalization of euthanasia

After 3 postponements in the last weeks, and a controversy between the Speaker and the PSD regarding a referendum vote motion, Parliament approved the new Euthanasia legalization bill. The bill will now be sent to President Marcelo, which is against the legalization, and he has 3 options: sign it, veto it or send it to the Constitutional Court. The last option is the one pundits and law experts feel is the most likely, as many say the new law still has a lot of issue that conflict with the Constitution. We'll see.

During the debate, the PS and PSD had a heated argument about a possible referendum, with the PS advising the PSD to stop digging a hole for them, and with the PSD accusing the PS and CHEGA of a collusion to stop a referendum and embarrass the Social Democrats. The PSD also accused Santos Silva of being a "PS hack" for rejecting the party's referendum motion. Santos Silva rejected the claim and said he was upset with the PSD words. A PSD and CHEGA motion to postpone the vote of the bill was also rejected. In the end, the voting results were the following:

126 In favour (105 PS, IL, 6 PSD, BE, PAN, Livre)
  84 Against (60 PSD, CHEGA, PCP, 6 PS)
    2 Abstention (1 PS, 1 PSD)
  18 Absent (10 PSD, 8 PS)

[Mike88]

Costa announces a 240 euros check for 1 million poor families in December:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1602986647800676352

Costa announces extraordinary support of 240 euros for vulnerable families

In an interview to Visão magazine, PM Costa announced that the government will approve, this week, a check of 240 euros for 1 million poor families to be paid in the next few weeks. Unlike the anti-inflation package of September, this cheque will only be given for families with low incomes and that receive other welfare aide: Social energy tariff, solidarity supplement for seniors, social insertion income, social disability pension, unemployment benefits, among others. The overall cost of this support is 240 million euros. In the same interview, Costa said that the deficit will be bellow 1.5%, against the 1.9% forecast, and that GDP will grow, at minimum, 6.7% in 2022. He also added he has no intentions of running for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026, trashed the PSD and IL, accusing the Liberals of being "cupcakes that squeak" and said that people should get used to him because he will stay for 4 years.

Parties left to right have different approaches to the announcements in this interview: the PSD, by the voice of Luís Montenegro, applauds the 240 euros support saying that the government is following the advice of the PSD. CHEGA wants this support extended to middle class families while IL says that this support is the right approach. BE criticizes the government for not proposing wage increases, with PCP following in the same note. PAN says that the support is not enough, while Livre accuses the government of "random announcements" with no strategy.

[Mike88]

The "Costa vs Moedas" ongoing feud:

https://twitter.com/24sapo/status/1603860357931565062

When sleep makes us leak water. The controversy of the phone call that didn't happen #Sapo24 #TodayWasLikeThis

After the big floods in Lisbon city and its suburbs, last and this week, government members have been visiting areas that had a lot of damage expect one, Lisbon. The media found out that PM Costa, who was also in the past mayor of Lisbon, didn't called or reach out to current Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas (PSD).

Because of this, reporters, during a press conference in Brussels, asked Costa about this, and the PM got upset: Costa first confirmed that he didn't called him, but if it's necessary he will call Moedas, adding that reporters shouldn't worry about this. Then, after he left the podium, Costa walked to a reporter and said, in return, that his house was also flooded and that Moedas should be asked why he didn't called him instead.

This response from Costa was very criticized by pundits, some calling it bad taste. And, this morning, Carlos Moedas responded to Costa by saying he's working hard for the people of Lisbon and that he was elected to do exactly that, adding that the PS should get used to that, using Costa's words from the Visão magazine interview. He also said he has been in touch with other government members and that what's important is that aid is given to the victims of the floods. Moedas also doesn't want this to turn into something personal.

Following Moedas response, PM Costa retracted his earlier comment and apologized to Moedas, saying he was very sleepy and made an unfortunate statement. He also confirmed he has no plans to visit areas affected by the floods.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (after 12.7% of undecideds are excluded)

30.9% PS (+2.1)
25.3% PSD (-0.9)
11.0% CHEGA (-2.6)
  8.6% IL (+0.6)
  8.6% BE (+1.3)
  4.4% CDU (-2.0)
  3.6% PAN (+0.9)
  2.2% CDS (+0.6)
  1.9% Livre (-0.7)
  3.5% Others/Invalid (+0.7)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.9 António Costa (+0.1)
2.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.9 Luís Montenegro (+0.1)
2.7 Rui Tavares (+0.1)
2.7 Catarina Martins (+0.2)
2.6 Inês Sousa Real (+0.1)
2.6 Nuno Melo (+0.1)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (new)
2.2 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 12 and 14 December 2022. Polled 663 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Big teacher protest in Lisbon yesterday, which drew almost 25,000 protesters to the streets, is dominating headlines this Sunday:

A small teachers union called STOP, has been holding strikes against the government's policies for education and teachers hirings and, yesterday, drew a big crowd of between 20,000 to 25,000 teachers to protest in Lisbon city in front of Parliament. The protest, which didn't had the support of the big teachers union FENPROF, close to the PCP, is being labeled by the media as a big blow for the government because of the unexpected turnout of people against the government. Protesters in front of Parliament:

https://twitter.com/migueldevm/status/1604164681878630400

Teachers in the protest demand the resignation of the Education minister, João Costa, and a change in government policy. The strikes of the STOP union will continue until late January 2023. In response to the protest, the minister gave an interview to RTP in which he accused the STOP union of making up lies and manipulating teachers, saying some of the policies they accuse the government of pursuing are not on the table. The union accuses the minister of proposing teacher hirings by city halls rather than by nationwide hirings. The minister also refused calls for his resignation.