🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

34.3% PS (-0.2)
21.7% PSD (+3.2)
  8.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.9% IL (+0.1)
  5.2% BE (nc)
  3.2% CDU (-0.4)
  2.7% PAN (-0.9)
  2.7% CDS (-0.2)
  1.2% Livre (-0.6)
  2.3% Others/Invalid (-0.6)
11.6% Undecided (-1.0)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
2.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.8 Luís Montenegro (new)
2.8 Rui Tavares (nc)
2.6 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.6 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.6 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.1 André Ventura (+0.1)
2.0 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 June 2022. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Health minister speaks in Parliament, as negotiations with unions fail and Finance minister says that the NHS doesn't have a money problem:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1537734859438817281

Minister of Health responds to MPs about problems in the NHS in an urgent debate convened by Chega.

Under immense pressure by parties and the media, minister Marta Temido went, this morning, to Parliament to explain the ongoing crisis in Emergency rooms across the country. Ms Temido said she would not explore deaths and suffering adding that the pandemic and the snap elections postponed solutions in the NHS. However, the opposition parties didn't bought the minister's words and attacked her. Visibly irritated by the oppositions remarks, Ms Temido heard the opposition trashing her positions and saying she's not up for the job. PCP and BE warned about using the private sector, while PSD, CHEGA and IL accused her of not having a plan and of pretending that the problems don't exist.

At the same time, meetings between the government and medical/nurses unions failed and no agreement was reached. Unions called the meeting a total "staging" by the government, and felt disappointed adding that the government only has a plan for 3 months and that the current crisis is not just "a 3 month" crisis. New meetings will be held next week. Also, Finance minister Fernando Medina took a stance and said that the NHS has no money problems, but rather a shortage of doctors, adding that the NHS is receiving more and more money each year.

[CumbrianLefty]

So a new leader "bounce" for the PSD, but only a modest one.

[Mike88]

So a new leader "bounce" for the PSD, but only a modest one.

A small bounce indeed, however, Montenegro almost hasn't said a word since the 28 May election. Until the congress, in the first weekend of July, Rio is still the official leader of the party and Montenegro is just the "leader-elect", meaning that the party currently has "two leaders", sort off, and to not create confusion, the PSD has basically been quite low profile regarding several fiascos that are hitting the government hard: rising inflation/fuel costs, the food aid cut controversy and the ongoing chaos in NHS hospitals.

Only after 3 July things in the PSD will normalize, because many in the PS, and also pundits, are worried about a possible "hot summer" for the government if many controversies continue to dominate headlines.

[Mike88]

The picture that has become viral: A photo of President Marcelo kissing a pregnant woman's belly is receiving a lot of jokes and criticisms.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1537817356533059584

Did Marcelo really kiss the belly of a pregnant woman? Story of a photo

A photo of President Marcelo kissing the belly of a pregnant woman has become viral in social media in the last few days, but many refused to believe that the photo was real and it was actually a fake. But, it's a real photo, captured by a Lusa agency photographer during the Lisbon St. Anthony marches, last June 12. Reactions have gone from joking to full criticisms to the President's lack of boundaries. While others say that this photo is pure Marcelo vintage, in which the President is pressing that Portugal is in an inclusive country. Others also point this could be a message regarding the ongoing chaos in NHS obstetrician emergency rooms, and or, a position against Euthanasia.

[Mike88]

Health minister speaks in Parliament, as negotiations with unions fail and Finance minister says that the NHS doesn't have a money problem:

PM Costa says he has full confidence in Marta Temido and says it's already "classical" the opposition demanding the resignation of a minister.

However, a controversial PS MP and pundit, Sérgio Sousa Pinto, has come forward and is defending that Health minister Marta Temido should resign as she doesn't have "any reformist agenda in an area that needs urgent reforms." He made these statements in a CNN Portugal program.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war:

Q1: Is the Government and Health authorities informing and managing well the ongoing surge in cases?

47.3% No
47.0% Yes
  5.7% Undecided

Q2: Did you agree with the end of mandatory masks in most places?

50.1% No
45.7% Yes
  4.3% Undecided

Q1: Is the EU doing everything they can to end the war?

61.2% No
26.4% Yes
12.4% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the rapid entry of Ukraine into the EU, even though not fulfilling the conditions required for other countries?

42.9% Yes
41.6% No
15.5% Undecided

Q3: The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO is positive or negative for Europe?

62.5% Positive
18.8% Negative
18.7% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 June 2022. Polled 611 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Another controversy hits the Government: Social Security has cut by 25% the number of subsidies for special education.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1538419950167072769

Social Security cut a quarter of special education subsidies

After the food aid cut debacle, and with the ongoing crisis in the NHS still dominating headlines, the government is now hit by another controversy. According to Jornal de Notícias, families with disable children are being surprised by indiscriminate cuts in special education supports. According to the newspaper, between January and April 2022, more than 5,200 people are no longer receiving this support, a cut of 25% compared with the same period in 2021. The newspaper adds that, without this support, many children are not receiving education or treatment in the NHS, which could aggravate their condition.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I bet that's making some people feel much better about handing a majority to the PS...

[Mike88]

I bet that's making some people feel much better about handing a majority to the PS...

Many of the government's recent decisions are just jaw dropping. The food aid debacle, where charity associations received an email to cut food aid, received another email, days after the story broke, to forget the cuts and carry on. Probably this new controversy will have an identical outcome. The NHS crisis is also a slow trainwreck. And the media is actually saying in op-eds, that the government feels lost and without a path, not to mention that many pundits are pressing that Costa is much more engaged in foreign affairs than national affairs.

[Mike88]

The picture that has become viral: A photo of President Marcelo kissing a pregnant woman's belly is receiving a lot of jokes and criticisms.

God bless the Portuguese media...
https://twitter.com/CapasJornais/status/1538784995833442305

The baby blessed by Marcelo was born. Mariana gave birth 5 days after this moment. "When I found myself, he gave me a little kiss on the belly. I asked him for another one and he gave it."

[Mike88]

Parliament approves Ukraine's candidacy to the EU. PCP was the sole party voting against:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1539700724753485825

War in Ukraine: Parliament approves Ukraine's accession to the European Union. PCP was the only one to vote against

After the Q&A debate between parties and the PM, Parliament voted a motion, proposed by Livre MP Rui Tavares, regarding Ukraine's candidacy submition to the EU. During the debate, PM Costa was accused by the opposition, mainly PSD, CHEGA and IL, of being skeptical to the Ukrainian candidacy, but the PS said that Costa was never skeptical and rather warned that the candidacy will not solve all of Ukraine's problems. The leftwing parties, BE, PAN and Livre, asked if Ukraine will also have debt forgiveness due to the war. PCP, on the other hand, said that EU sanctions to Russia should be reevaluated as they making prices and the cost of living rise. In the end the results of the vote were the following:

224 In favour (PS, PSD, CHEGA, IL, BE, PAN, Livre)
    6 Against (PCP)

[Mike88]

President Marcelo warns the people to "not get sick during the summer" in order to avoid pressure on the health care of others:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1540006542266642432

Marcelo says that every Portuguese "will make the effort not to be sick" this summer

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned the Portuguese that the ongoing crisis in NHS emergency rooms means that everyone needs to be carefull and avoid getting sick during the summer, first for the sake of themselves, but also to avoid pressure in the NHS. The President's remarks:

Each one will make the effort not to be sick, for himself, and not to put pressure on the care of the health of others. Our parents reminded us of that when we were young, our friends too and our teachers. Therefore, policymakers can recall evidence.

These remarks follow a similar, but also viral for not the right reasons, speech made by the head of Health General Department, Graça Freitas, in which she said that the "worst thing that could happen to anyone is being sick in August", and also warned that the famous Braised Cod (Bacalhau à Brás) is dangerous as it leads to a lot of food poisoning.

I... just... I had to read both stories twice to believe these things were actually said.

[Mike88]

New Lisbon airport: Parties and media trash the government's decision while the Tourism sector and airport owners approve the plan.
 
https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1542260907543257089

The opinion was unanimous: the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic were against the Government's decision to move forward with the airports of Montijo and Alcochete.

The political world was shaked this Wednesday by the surprise announcement, from the government, that the new Lisbon airport will be in Alcochete, to open in 2035, but Montijo airport will also be built to be a complementary airport until Alcochete is completed and Portela is closed for good. These kind of announcements aren't new, they have already happened in the past, but this time everyone was caught by surprise. With Costa in Madrid in the NATO summit, no one, from parties to even the President, were informed that the government was planning to make this announcement. Opposition parties, left to right are trashing the government: PSD, CHEGA and IL accuse the government of "zigzags" and of bizarre decisions, while leftwing parties accuse the government of ignoring environment studies and of acting like they are "playing with the country". On their part, Tourism sector associations applaud the government's decision, as also does ANA airports, which manages the Portuguese airports and is controlled by French Vinci. The media accuses the government of making contradictory decisions and statements, and that the government is in the hands of French Vinci company.

The PS was the only party to not make a statement regarding this decision, a statement is expected for tomorrow, and minister Pedro Nuno Santos went to several TV channels to explain the decision. In the interviews he gave, Nuno Santos said that the country has had enough of studies and a decision is now made. Confronted by statements in which Nuno Santos criticized the Alcochete option, the minister responded that he maintains the current decision, but added that the government doesn't know, yet, how much will this cost and will conduct studies and budgets.

Speaking to reporters, President Marcelo said he knew nothing about the decision and was only informed by the media and the government's decree. He didn't made comments about the decision itself and will ask for more information from Costa.

[Mike88]

New Lisbon airport: Parties and media trash the government's decision while the Tourism sector and airport owners approve the plan.
 

Turmoil in government: Costa "fires" Pedro Nuno Santos from the government as the minister decided the new airport location without the consent of the Prime Minister.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1542444291372584960

Government: Costa dismisses Pedro Nuno Santos

According to Público newspaper, the PM is furious by yesterday's decision by Pedro Nuno Santos regarding Lisbon's new airport location, as the decision was taken without the consent of the Prime Minister. Costa already reversed the Nuno Santos's decree from yesterday and, according to the newspaper, will fire Pedro Nuno Santos from cabinet during today if the minister doesn't tender his resignation.

Costa has a press conference in Madrid at 11:45am. More updates when available.

[Mike88]

Costa has a press conference in Madrid at 11:45am. More updates when available.

Costa is refusing to talk about the airport issue and the following political debacle in Madrid, saying that in foreign land, he will not discuss national issues. But, it's clear by his body language that he's furious.

[Mike88]

Update:

The media is now reporting that Pedro Nuno Santos is refusing to resign and is now waiting in the PM's office for Costa's return from the Madrid NATO summit. Nuno Santos was also absent from the cabinet meeting this morning.

Law experts also point that a PM reversing so publicly, and strongly, a minister's decree is almost unheard-of and that it could even raise legal issues, adding that this also signals the possible beginning of an internal war in the PS.

[Mike88]

Well... he didn't resign.

After his meeting with Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos made a statement saying he was sorry about the several errors in communication and said he's the sole responsible. However, he doesn't resign saying this episode doesn't stain the work he's doing and will carry on.

Media and pundits are stunned by this decision saying that the authority of the Prime Minister is strongly damaged and that the government is now completely dysfunctional. Pedro Nuno Santos is also perceived as completely humiliated and politically hurt.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo says that the PM has to be sure of the type of people on his team:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1542590328120672257

“The Prime Minister is responsible for his choices”: President of the Republic reacts to the controversy over a new airport

After Pedro Nuno Santos's statement, and also after Costa's statement where the PM said that the minister made a "grave mistake", but was humble and now it was time to move forward, the President of the Republic also made remarks. Marcelo said that the Prime Minister is responsible for the choices of his "collaborators" and that now what is needed is a clear, strong and rapid decision to resolve the question of a new airport. In summary, after his short statement, Marcelo concluded that the team tasked to make a decision must have the best conditions.

These remarks, IMO, feel like the President is very unsure if Nuno Santos should remain in government...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is a big oof...

I don't know what Nuno Santos was thinking, but the result is the most embarrassing for both him and Costa. It sounds particularly surprising that the latter didn't press the issue that much given his notorious intra-party rivalry with Nuno Santos, but I suppose it was the wrong timing. Anyway, it's only been a day (but what a day) so I could be speaking early.

[Mike88]

This is a big oof...

I don't know what Nuno Santos was thinking, but the result is the most embarrassing for both him and Costa. It sounds particularly surprising that the latter didn't press the issue that much given his notorious intra-party rivalry with Nuno Santos, but I suppose it was the wrong timing. Anyway, it's only been a day (but what a day) so I could be speaking early.

No one understands what just happened. Everybody knew that Costa and PNS (Pedro Nuno Santos) relationship was bad, but no one expected this confrontation against the PM. Now, this episode is strange because no one knows the full length of the story: Did Costa actually knew something, but decided to "torpedo" Nuno Santos anyway?", or "Did Nuno Santos really think he could make decisions without cabinet or the PM's consent?". Nothing makes sense.

Some pundits and media outlets say that Costa really wanted to fire PNS, but because Nuno Santos refused to back down, and because of the possible internal tensions his exit from cabinet would create within the PS, Costa seemed to back down and forced the minister to make a humiliating statement apologizing for his actions, and after that, Costa appeared in front of the press, a bit "jocular", saying PNS is just human but that he was humble and so on. Pundits interpreted this as Costa just humiliating even more Nuno Santos.

Now, the new airport is back to square one, as always. To be frank, I have the opinion nothing will ever be constructed. This project is cursed.

Also, a curious note: The last 3 PMs, Sócrates, Passos and Costa, all have had a "summer crisis episode": Sócrates actually had two "summer crisis episodes", one in July 2005, when he fired his finance minister because of tensions between both, and in July 2009, when he fired his economy minister for "making horns" gestures against a PCP MP. Passos had the "irrevocable" crisis when Paulo Portas resigned as minister in July 2013, but then returned as Deputy PM a few days later. And now Costa also had his own "mini summer crisis".

[Mike88]

PSD congress starts in Porto city: Luís Montenegro begins his term as PSD leader.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1543001653493878788

Montenegro recalls past mistakes to “regain the confidence of the Portuguese” in the future

Rui Rio's leadership in the PSD is now history. As both Rio and Montenegro entered, side by side, in the Super Bock Arena in Porto city, Rio's leadership came to a close after Montenegro's speech. Montenegro trashed the government for leading the country into poverty and pressed that the PS has governed 20 of the last 27 years, adding that in these years the PS led the country into a "political swamp", to "pre-bankruptcy" and now to "poverty". However, he questioned why the PS continues to win elections saying it isn't the voters who are wrong, but rather the PSD which is not talking to voters and that it needs to change. He promissed to be an active opposition leader promissing to pass a few days, every month, in a different district to be in contact with the population. Regarding the hot topic of the moment, the Costa vs PNS airport debacle, he accused Costa of being weak towards Nuno Santos and that no one believes the explanations by both Costa and PNS. But, he pressed that even though he's not a "cane" of the PS, he's willing to talk with Costa regarding the airport on his terms and with no "spins or blackmails", warning that after this episode, the government deserves little trust.

[Mike88]

At the same time as the PSD congress is happening, other stories are also making headlines:

- President Marcelo is right now in the middle of a "diplomatic incident" with Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil. Marcelo is currently in an official trip to Brazil and had a schedule lunch with Bolsonaro in Brasília and then a meeting with Lula da Silva in São Paulo. Furious, with the planned meeting with Lula, Bolsonaro abruptly cancelled his lunch with Marcelo. President Marcelo ignored Bolsonaro's cancellation saying the trip would go on as planned and that the Portugal-Brazil relations continue strong as ever. Marcelo has a very bad relationship with Bolsonaro, specially after his last trip to Brazil, last year, where Bolsonaro, and his staff, made several jokes about Portugal and Marcelo during a lunch with Marcelo present, which embarrassed and infuriated the President and the Portuguese entourage;

- The Costa vs Nuno Santos feud is still reeling the PS. According to the media, the party is "perplex" and "shocked" by this crisis. Adding to this reaction, several PS MPs and members also went to the air waves, on Wednesday night, defending the airport location and criticizing the PSD for removing themselves from any decision, the guidelines from PNS. Therefore, Costa's "brake" to Nuno Santos decision is embarrassing several PS members, and adding to this, the Minister of Territorial Cohesion, Ana Abrunhosa, is also being accused of embarrassing the party because of a rambling speech she gave, on Thursday, in which she said she was heartbroken, gave a shout out to Pedro Nuno Santos and also a "big hug" to him. Expresso newspaper says that several PS mayors and local party officials felt embarrassed, while others were also "ashamed" by her remarks;

- The crisis in NHS emergency rooms continues. Several obstetrician rooms are closed during the weekend across the country due to lack of specialists. The situation is worse in the Lisbon area and in the Algarve, but there are also several complications in Hospitals in Braga and Aveiro. The intensive care unit (ICU) of respiratory patients in Santa Maria hospital, Lisbon, is also having a lot of problems due to lack of staff. Because of this situation, the government is drafting a plan to deviate pregnant women to other hospitals, if their local emergency room is closed;

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro's keynote speech in the PSD congress: Montenegro refuses a regionalization referendum and proposes a national emergency plan to fight the rising cost of living:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1543618065237164040

Luís Montenegro promises that he will do everything to "give Portugal a new government" and "lead a new majority"

In the last day of the PSD congress, Luís Montenegro's leadership team was elected with almost 92% of the votes, one of the highest shares ever, and gave his keynote speech as PSD leader. His leadership team has as main deputies MEP Paulo Rangel and Miguel Pinto Luz. In the PSD national council, Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas was elected as the chair of the council. In his speech, Montenegro said that the times will live in demand "strong governments and demanding oppositions", adding the governments need to be agents of change. Montenegro also labeled the PSD as a moderate party which is not socialist, populist or ultra-liberal, pressing that the PSD has no desire to align with extremists in order to survive and criticized the PS for aligning with parties, like PCP, who are anti-NATO, anti-EU and pro Russia. He criticized heavily the PS majority government for being a "old government", with no solutions and submerged in ideological and personal disputes. Because of this accused lack of action from the government, Montenegro proposed a social emergency plan to help poorer families with rising costs, with monthly food supports, gas and electricity tax cuts and support for agriculture and fishing. He also proposed a 15% IRS single tax for young people until 35 years old and a national attraction program, to attract immigrants to move to Portugal.

In the NHS, Montenegro defended reforms in which the public health sector is complemented by the private and social sector and accused the PS of an ideological shift against the private sector, which is hurting people. But, the big surprise in the speech was the rejection of a referendum on regionalization by 2024, a PS pledge during the 2022 general elections. Montenegro labeled the decentralization plan as a "hoax" and accused the government of bad management in this dossier. He added, that after 24 February 2022, people's priorities have changed and that holding a referendum in the matter would be a mistake and irresponsible, concluding that if the government wants to pursue this path, they will do it alone.

In reaction to the speech, the PS, by the voice of their President Carlos César, accused Montenegro of being the "heteronym" of Passos Coelho, and that the PSD returned to the past with their obsession against the PS. CHEGA said they were confused by Montenegro's speech, while they acknowledge that the speech is much more combative against the PS. IL liked Montenegro's tone and "invited" the PSD to lead a strong opposition against the PS. On their part, PCP says that there are no difference between PS and PSD, while PAN accused Montenegro of delivering an "old speech". President Marcelo, currently in Brazil, said he was happy with a new PSD much closer to the President's positions, specially on regionalization.

[Mike88]

Tomorrow, a motion of no confidence proposed by CHEGA will be voted, and rejected.

As expected, only CHEGA will vote in favour. PSD and IL will abstain, while PS, PCP and BE will vote against. PAN and Livre haven't announced their vote intentions, but it's expected that it will also be against.

CHEGA reasons to propose a no confidence vote are the ongoing NHS crisis, the fuel price hike and the ongoing crisis in government because of the new Lisbon airport. The party accuses the government of having no credibility and asks for the resignation of the Health, Infrastructures and Finance ministers, Marta Temido, Pedro Nuno Santos and Fernando Medina respectably.