Trump doesn't run in 2016 and Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination due to divided opposition. While Clinton doesn't bleed enough working class support to lose MI, PA, or WI, but manages to somehow run a worse general election campaign overall, which causes her to lose not only OH, IA, and ME 2nd (abet by narrower margins than she did against Trump), she also manages to, by a hair, lose NV and CO, while also outperforming Trump in FL, AZ, NC, and GA.
Cruz not being able to build a cult following leads to an even worse 2018 than with Trump, and a recession happening between late 2018 and mid 2020 causes enough suburban "Obama-Cruz" voters to vote Joe Biden, whom many believe would've defeated Cruz in 2016 had he not been talked out of running.
Did anybody outside Texas even think of Ted Cruz in January 2013? I thought he only became famous because of the shutdown.
