Quebec 2022 Election

[Poirot]

We are in the sixth wave but the government doesn't seem to want to reinstate restrictions. Usually the summer is a more tame period for the pandemic so in September it shouldn't be a big problem. In mid-April the plan was to lift the restriction on wearing maks in indoor public places. Many experts say we should keep the mask. If we do Duhaime could denounce this restriction and we would would be the only place in North America requiring masks.

Angus Reid had a poll for all provinces. For Quebec it had CAQ at 33%, PLQ and PCQ at 19%, QS at 16% and PQ 9%. It was done before the budget which gave 500$ to every adult earning less than $100,000.

https://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-march-2022/

What I find interesting about the numbers is the movements between parties from the 2018 vote.
CAQ retains two thirds of their 2018 vote  but lose 26% to PCQ and 4% to PQ. PQ only retains 43% of their vote, losing 28% to CAQ, 15% to PCQ and 11% to QS.

CAQ also gains just over 10% of the QS and PLQ 2018 voters. So CAQ has become the governing center party option, leaving traditional party of PQ and PLQ in trouble while the two more extreme options of QS and PCQ fight for the discontent and outspoken opposition.

QS retains 72% of its vote, losing around 10% to CAQ and PCQ, and 4% to PQ.  PLQ retains 71% of it's past voters. losing 12% to CAQ, 9% to PCQ and 4% to QS. There are some people who have pitched the idea of forming a new political party to defend the interests of non-francophones. If it happens it's not good news for the PLQ but it could also be a fringe thing if they have no money or high profile people supporting it.

[Poirot]

Eric Duhaime has chosen to run in Chauveau in Quebec city region. It was Gerard Deltell's provincial riding. His campaign director will be former Conservative federal minister Josée Verner.  He also has the support of Senator Boisvenu (Charest supporter) and Yves Lévesque former Trois-Rivières mayor and Poilievre supporter.

It has been a quick rise for Duhaime. The party is doing well in fundraising and it has 57,000 members. Duhaime said Chauveau has the most members.

In Quebec City, the PCQ is against the tramway project. It proposes a bridge between Quebec City and Lévis instead of the CAQ tunnel.

Article in English on Duhaime.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-conservative-party-covid-19-eric-duhaime-1.6415046

[Poirot]

So how many of the PQ 10 will still be in the legislature? Catherine Fournier has already left the legislature; Sylvain Roy is an independent and Veronique Hivon, Sylvain Gaudreault, Harold LeBel (also an indie) and Lorraine Richard have already announced their retirements. Martin Ouellet hasn't announced, but Megane Perry Melancon, Joel Arseneau and Pascal Berube are running. So in answer to the question, just one (Berube) is a not unreasonable bet, but I suppose neither is four.

Projection sites give 1. Bérubé has a personal vote that others might not have.

[Poirot]

Hilarious: the 2 new neo-Equality parties are already squabbling. One is Balarama Holness' Mouvement Québec, the other is Townships lawyer Colin Standish's Parti Canadien.

Which one has a better chance to do well. The Parti Canadien (PaCQ) has not an official leader yet (or will it be Standish) so maybe it can attract someone well known. Holness ran for Montreal mayor so from where the population is. The alliance of municipal parties to give a third option to the two main candidates didn't go well so I wouldn't trust Holness if the two parties merged.

I don't think the new parties will be included in polls so we need to check if Others move or the Liberal decrease.

[Poirot]

We had a list of PQ members not running again.

For the Liberals  members retiring so far:

Island of Montreal
Lise Thériault (Anjou-Louis-Riel)
Christine St-Pierre (Acadie)
Hélène David (Marguerite-Bourgeoys)
David Birnbaum (D’Arcy-McGee)

Laval
Francine Charbonneau (Mille-Îles)
Jean Rousselle (Vimont)
Monique Sauvé (Fabre)

Montérégie
Gaétan Barrette (La Pinière)
Nicole Ménard (Laporte)

Québec Solidaire loses Catherine Dorion (Taschereau).
Claire Samson (Iberville) was elected with CAQ but later joined Parti Conservateur will not be a candidate.

CAQ has also some retirement.
Suzanne Dansereau (Verchères)
Danielle McCann (Sanguinet)
Marguerite Blais (Prévost)
Denis Tardif (Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata)
Emilie Foster (Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré)

It seems women are overrepresented in members not running.

[Poirot]

Eric Duhaime has chosen to run in Chauveau in Quebec city region. It was Gerard Deltell's provincial riding. His campaign director will be former Conservative federal minister Josée Verner.  He also has the support of Senator Boisvenu (Charest supporter) and Yves Lévesque former Trois-Rivières mayor and Poilievre supporter.

It has been a quick rise for Duhaime. The party is doing well in fundraising and it has 57,000 members. Duhaime said Chauveau has the most members.

In Quebec City, the PCQ is against the tramway project. It proposes a bridge between Quebec City and Lévis instead of the CAQ tunnel.

Article in English on Duhaime.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-conservative-party-covid-19-eric-duhaime-1.6415046

I suspect that the challenge for PCQ is that all the seats they would target are currently CAQ seats and right now CAQ and Legault are still very popular. In 2018 the CAQ won Chauveau by 25 points! If and when the CAQ and Legault become unpopular there could be an opportunity for the the PCQ to gain protest votes and possibly win seats. But how do they win any CAQ seats in an election that is likely to be a huge CAQ landslide?

The party would need high voter concentration.
The son of Léger has published some numbers by administrative regions from the polls done since the start of the year (I imagine to have a sample big enough).

The PCQ does better in Chaudière-Appalaches with 27%, Capitale Nationale with 22% and Centre du Québec with 18%.
In all regions CAQ is over 40% except Montreal. It has 57% in Lanaudière, 52% Laurentides and 48% in Montérégie.
In Montreal, the PLQ has 36%, CAQ 27% and QS 15%.

[Poirot]

The latest Léger poll has the CAQ in dominant position. It gets 46% of voting intentions, followed by the PLQ at 18%, PCQ 14%, QS 13% and PQ 8%.

By gender, CAQ voter is more female, PLQ and QS have an even male and female vote, PCQ and PQ are more male. Female vote is CAQ 50% followed by PLQ at 18%. Male vote CAQ 41%, PLQ 18%.

By age CAQ dominates the 55 years and older group with a big 65% followed by Liberals at 17% with the other parties in single digit. In the 35 to 54 year old, CAQ has 31%, PCQ is close at 28% and PLQ 21%.  QS is first among 18 to 34 year old with 33%, CAQ 29%, PLQ 15%, PCQ 11%. If the older folks get out to vote more, CAQ could get more support than polls show.

Francophone voters: CAQ 53, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 10, PLQ 9.
Non francophone: PLQ 48%, PCQ 19%, CAQ 18%, QS 8%.
I don't know if it's a smaller sample blip but was surprised to see PCQ doing better with the non francophone group than francophone.

In the Quebec City metro census region, CAQ eads with 43% with PCQ second at 25%, QS at 16%, PLQ and PQ at 8%.
Greater Montreal census region, CAQ 40, PLQ 25, QS 14, PCQ 12, PQ 7.
Rest of Quebec, CAQ 53, PCQ 13, PLQ and QS 12, PQ 9.

[Poirot]

Léger will probably have a new poll this week. As a reference for comparison of different polling firms I will post the polls done in June.

Léger (June 17-19)

CAQ 41%
PLQ 18%
PCQ 15%
QS 14%
PQ 9%
Other 3%

Mainstreet (June 9-10)

CAQ 40%
PLQ 21%
PCQ 17%
QS 12%
PQ 8%
Other 2%

Angus Reid (June 7-13)

CAQ 35%
PLQ 18%
PCQ 19%
QS 14%
PQ 10%

[Poirot]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:



Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

Léger in June also had a referendum question. Overall 32% would vote yes, 52% against, 15% no answer/don't know. By language francos are 39% for, 45% against 17% no answer. Non francophone 8% for, 82% against, 10% no answer.

By party
CAQ 43 yes, 42 no, 15 don't know
PLQ 6 yes, 87 no, 7 don't know
PCQ 21 yes, 72 no, 7 don't know
QS 39 yes, 51 no, 10 don't know
PQ 86 yes, 5 no, 9 don't know

Sice CAQ has the most overall support we can say the biggest number of sovereigntists vote CAQ. In this poll QS is even less sovereigntist than in Mainstreet. To think that Option Nationale decided to merge with QS.

[Poirot]

I don't know if there is one small anglo party that is more popular than the other. The leader of the Canadian party of Quebec Colin Standish is running in Westmount-Saint-Louis. Bloc Montreal's Balarama Holness is running in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.

Léger poll will be published tomorrow. As a teaser answers to the question who is best to manage the next covid wave was released.
Legault 49%
Nadeau-Dubois 9%
Duhaime 7%
Anglade 6%
St-Pierre Plamondon 1%
Don't know 28%

[Poirot]

PQ voters like Legault and less are not satisfied with Legault. St-Pierre Plamondon has not a high profile / is not known. Maybe not 1% but not a sign there was an increase.

Maybe PQ needs a more angrry target group. The Conservatives are angry about pandemic measures and angry about everything, government, taxes, freedom, politicians. QS are angry about social justice, climate change and environment, rent, the disadvantaged. PLQ have some angry people about nationalist laws.

Speaking of Green Party, the leader has come out against the tramway project in Quebec City. He would like a subway.

[Poirot]

PQ voters like Legault and less are not satisfied with Legault. St-Pierre Plamondon has not a high profile / is not known. Maybe not 1% but not a sign there was an increase.

The latest Léger poll shows PQ voters like Legault more than the PQ leader. Only 23% of PQ voters say St-Pierre Plamondon would make the best premier, 48% answer Legault. All the other parties have the own party leader more popular.

70% of PQ voters are satisfied with the government. The highest number among opposition parties after that is PLQ voters at 41%.

[Poirot]

The léger done July 29-31.

CAQ 44%
PLQ 18%
QS 15%
PCQ 13%
PQ 10%
Other 1%

Compared to the last one CAQ has a little increase and PCQ a little decrease. Léger before showed the PCQ lower than other pollsters. In Quebec City metro CAQ leads PCQ 40% to 25%.

Franco: CAQ 50, QS 16, PQ 12, PCQ 11, PLQ 10
Non Franco: PLQ 46, PCQ 20, CAQ 17, QS 11, Other 5, PQ 1
I suppose the other are the two anglo parties and maybe some green.

QS leads the 18-34 age group with 35% followed by CAQ 30%.
CAQ dominates over 55 with 52% followed by PLQ 20%.
The best subregion for QS is rest of Quebec.

QS voters are the most likey to change followed by PQ voters.

Second choice by party:

QS voters
PLQ 23%
CAQ 20%
PQ 15%
Other 13%
PCQ 5%

PQ voters
QS 29%
CAQ 26%
Other 4%
PCQ 3%
PLQ 2%

PLQ voters
CAQ 20%
QS 18%
Other 14%
PCQ 13%
PQ 7%

PCQ voters
Other 21%
PLQ 17%
PQ 14%
QS 9%
CAQ 8%

CAQ voters
PQ 24%
QS 17%
PLQ 13%
Other 5%
PCQ 4%

[Poirot]

In other wierd news from my area, the PQ candidate in Ungava will be Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue from 2011 to 2019.

The daughter of Romeo Saganash is running in Ungava for QS.

[Poirot]

PCQ seems to be receding so although will do a lot better than 2018, I think their surge earlier was due to opposition to covid restrictions and with those all gone now, that has somewhat lessened their appeal.  I don't see them getting 20% or even 15%.  Maybe 10%, but unlike if an election were held in Spring in which they might have come in second votes (not seats) and gotten 20%, it seems a good chunk who voted CAQ in 2018 and were angry at covid restrictions have returned to CAQ.

Duhaime will probably get coverage, sometimes bad from some outrageous declaration but he'll get attention. He'll be in debates and even if experts criticize him he can get a populist message across. I'm still puzzled if he'll get a bigger share of the non-francophone vote than francophone vote as some poll showed. 

Maxime Bernier will personnaly vote PCQ but his party will not take a party position.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1907945/quebec-duhaime-bernier-appui-campagne

With the campaign officially starting expenses will have to be counted. CAQ has been advertising all summer and I received an automated call.

Party Slogans

CAQ : Continuons
PLQ : Votez vrai. Vrais enjeux. Vraies solutions. 
QS : Changez d’ère
PQ: Le Québec qui s’assume. Pour vrai.
PCQ : Libre chez nous

[Poirot]

Duhaime will probably get coverage, sometimes bad from some outrageous declaration but he'll get attention. He'll be in debates and even if experts criticize him he can get a populist message across. I'm still puzzled if he'll get a bigger share of the non-francophone vote than francophone vote as some poll showed. 

Is it that surprising? Isn't the PCQ the only party that is clearly against Bill 21 and against new restrictions on English?

It is against the language bill but supports bill 21 (religious symbols) I believe.
It's more that Duhaime is a media personality with a strong base around Quebec City and he would be more popular with non-francophones around Montreal. I don't know if he has a strong presence in English media, maybe he has (or he shares the same network as Poilievre federal Conservatives). I've read Poilievre worked on Duhaime's campaign when he was a candidate for ADQ.

In the latest Léger PCQ vote is more even with 13% among francophone and 15% non-francophone, but non-francophone is smaller sample.

[Poirot]

Saw my first sign on the road in the riding. It was for the Conservative candidate. I don't know what is the point of having an official start of the campaign if parties start before.

Even CBC vote compass is already online. Fort those who like this thing:
https://votecompass.cbc.ca/quebec2022

Not sure how they choose their questions. There could be more questions on future promises on solutions to tackle cost of living for example.

I was looking at numbers from different polling firms. If differences are the same, Mainstreet could have PLQ and PCQ higher than Léger and QS, PQ lower. I posted them at the time to compare if differences remain the same (some firm usually having one party lower or higher)

[Poirot]

Wow.  What happened to PQ?  Did they lose more autonomist and sovereignist votes to CAQ since 2018?

Probably. The government has good satisfaction and Legault is trusted, pandemic must have helped because Legault was omnipresent and opposition parties had no place.

Legault has taken the nationalist position, defending the langauage or Quebec. He has recruited sovereigntists like Bernard Drainville and Caroline St-Hilaire to run this time. Even the PQ voters now are satisfied with the government. According to Léger, 73% of PQ voters are satisfied (it's 40% for PLQ and QS and only 7% for Conservative).

Many former PQ staffers have found jobs in CAQ political offices. It gets difficult to recruit star candidates. The leader is not well known. When asked who would make the best premier, the PQ leader only gets 47% among PQ voters while Legault gets 32%.  For best opposition leader PQ leader gets 58% among PQ voters but Nadeau-Dubois of QS still gets 20%..

And when people talk of the party it is to say it will disappear more than for its program. And there is always someone who will be unhappy about something or bash the party like Lucien Bouchard. CAQ attracts people wanting power and nationalism and some will go QS who have more social concerns. Earlier in this thread there were numbers showing there are more people for sovereignty who vote CAQ than PQ.

[Poirot]

Other than the Conservatives in the Quebec City region (I still think this is a protest that will melt away as the election gets closer) is any party other than CAQ likely to win any riding outside of Montreal, Laval or the Outaouais?  I realize if not, that would mean the P.Q would be shut out.

Maybe QS in Rouyn, Ungava or Sherbrooke.

What about Taschereau. It seems winnable. Jean Lesage is more contested.

[Poirot]

In the Léger poll one question is if it's possible or not that people would vote for each party.  This can give a ceiling for each party.

53% of people said it's possible they vote CAQ, 31% QS, 28% PLQ, 26% PQ and 24% PCQ.

There are details by age. language and regions.
Francophones say at 63% it's possible they vote CAQ, 33% QS, 18% PLQ, 32% PQ, 21% PCQ.
Non francophones (small sample): 26 CAQ, 24 QS, 59 PLQ, 11 PQ, 35 PCQ.

Since the poll has PLQ voting intentions among non francophones at 53% there doesn't seem much room to grow in that traditional group of support.

There is also a question on likelyhood of casting a ballot. By party vote PLQ voters are 10% under other party voters to cclaim they are certain to go vote.

Last election the turnout was 66,45%. Since the election doesn's seem close maybe turnout will drop. In Ontario last election had a very low turnout. If we have a low turnout does it help the government or opposition. Is it CAQ supporters will be complacent or opposition being demotivated. If the most important factor is age (older go vote) it helps CAQ since it dominates the older age group.

[Poirot]

I was looking at numbers from different polling firms. If differences are the same, Mainstreet could have PLQ and PCQ higher than Léger and QS, PQ lower. I posted them at the time to compare if differences remain the same (some firm usually having one party lower or higher)

It's almost all true, three out of four. PLQ the same, PCQ higher, QS and PQ lower.

Mainstreet August 25-28

CAQ 38.1
PLQ 17.4
QS 12.1
PCQ 21.5
PQ 7
Other 3.9

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Franco: CAQ 43, PCQ 22, QS 13.5, PLQ 11. PQ 8, Other 1.9
Non Franco: PLQ 41, PCQ 19, CAQ 18, QS 6.5, PQ 3, Other 11.6%

[Poirot]

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Seems like an echo effect from the broader reported "Poilievremania" among the 18-24s.

Or maybe an anomaly. I don't know how much to trust Mainstreet. It polls every day but it bounces. Today the Conservatives are in third place with 17.7%. For subgroups I guess it's more normal to jump around because of smaller sample but in the 18-34 age group QS is now first at 26% and PCQ is 25.7%. Léger has PCQ at 16% in that age group, third place, with QS first at 36%. Differences with the Léger poll are smaller today than yesterday.

[Poirot]

First days of the campaign mainly focused on how to fight the cost of living and tax cuts.

PLQ published a platform before summer so policies are not a surprise. It wants to lower by 1.5% the tax rate of the two first income brackets (so people making up to about 90,000$). Increase tax on the highest income.
It wants to remove the proncial sales tax on basic necessity products. Give an allowance of $2,000 to people over 70 to help them stay at home. A temporary freeze on electricity rate and removal of provincial sales tax on up to $4,000 of electricity bill. Increase the solidarity tax credit for low income people.
The party has a platform in English on their page: https://plq.org/en/

CAQ wants to reduce by 1% the rate of the first two income brackets. It wants to use 40% of the revenues that would have gone to the Generations Fund, a fund created to decrease the weight of the debt. In December if reelected it will send money to people, 600$ to those making less than 50,000$ and 400$ to those making between 50,000 and 100,000$. In the Spring money sent was 500$ for people declaring less than 100,000 of income.
They want to increse an aid for people over 70.  If you make less than 24,000$  you get 2,000$ and the amount decrease until you earn 64,000$. Other things might come later since they have not published a full platform.

PCQ has a platform in English: https://www.conservative.quebec/platform
It wants to reduce the tax rate of the first two income tax brackets by 2%. Increase the personal exemption to 20,000$ (it's almost 16,000 now). It wants to suspend the provincial gas tax. End taxation on the resale of used consumer goods.

QS will take all revenues that should go to the Generations Fund and use it to fight climate change and the quality of life of seniors. It wants to remove temporarily the provincial sales tax on many products and services like clothing, restaurant meals, repair service, until inflation comes down to 3%. No tax suspension for gas. No income tax cut.

PQ will not cut income tax.

[Poirot]

A poll of Quebec City metro, done by Segma Recherche with a margin of error of 3.5%

CAQ 42.5%
PCQ 25%
QS 16%
PLQ 6%
PQ 6%

CAQ dominates the older age group. QS does well with the very young. PCQ does well with young and middle aged. For the 18-54 age group, 33% PCQ, 28% CAQ, 23% QS.

The gap between CAQ and PCQ is greater on the Lévis side. On Quebec City side: CAQ  41%, PCQ 26%, QS 18%.
https://www.fm93.com/nouvelles/505893/la-caq-en-avance-le-pcq-competitif-chez-les-18-54-ans

[Poirot]

A poll of 600 voters in Montreal and Laval for the Montreal Gazette done by Léger.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/liberal-support-fading-in-montreal-ahead-of-quebec-election-poll

PLQ is at 28% (in 2018 it was 41%)
CAQ 24
QS 19
PCQ 13
PQ 7, Canadian Party 3, Green party 3, Bloc Montreal 2

The PDF on Léger's website has results for subgroups but for regions it can be less than 100 respondents so there could be less reliabiity.

QS leads the 18-34 of age with 41% followed by PLQ at 20%. In the over 55, PLQ gets 31% to CAQ 30%.

By mother tongue, CAQ leads the French with 40% followed by QS at 27%.
English: PLQ 53%, PCQ 14%
Other: PLQ 40%, PCQ 22%