Quebec 2022 Election

[Hatman 🍁]

Chauveau (leader's seat), Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud.

In other news, QS published a poll by EKOS who have them leading by 6 over the CAQ in Liberal-held Verdun.

Looking under the hood of the poll, and the QS has a massive lead with the under 50s, but are in single digits with seniors. Considering turnout advantages, I'd say the QS is probably still in third in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

The age skew is less severe in the Maurice Richard poll, in fact, CAQ and QS are essentially tied with 50-64s, but it still exists, which makes me think the CAQ will win it. Funny to see the absolute crash in the PLQ vote though; not even winning the Anglo vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pontiac would be a big surprise. It would be a CAQ dreams to sweep the Outaouais but so far I think most think PLQ will hold. I haven't heard of it being a PCQ target or if they have a lot of members. I've seen federal Pontiac had the most votes in Quebec in the federal leadership election. I don't know if CPC tranlsates to PCQ, if there is PCQ media support like there could be for Poilievre (maybe not if some listen to Ottawa stations).

In 2018 PLQ got 54% and CAQ 20%. PLQ would need to lose half its vote, CAQ only make small gain ot not at all so PCQ would need near 30% to win.

The language most spoken at home in the riding in 2016 was 52% French, 38% English and the rest multiple languages or other languages. I imagine English is higher now because the latest census showed English gaining in Gatineau, people moving from Ontario and a lot settling in Aylmer.

There is a list of ridings to watch in the Montreal area (mostly PLQ potential losses).
https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ridings-to-watch-in-the-montreal-region

The pecentage for parties on the map in the article is projection from poll aggregator, not past results.

Is that people moving from Ottawa to the Outaouais? Is that for cheaper housing prices?

Rent and housing is much cheaper, but with the increased taxes it evens out.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Why riding polls are sh*t"

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1570384152377151489

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1569423103180111881

Do we think the voters in Sherbrooke have shifted that much in less than a week?

[Hatman 🍁]

New Léger has the CAQ under 40 for the first time in almost 3 years, a yellow light but without consequence for now because the opposition remains completely divided. He says most of the slide is from young voters. QS and PQ both +2, PLQ and PCQ +1. Interestingly, respondents still think Legault is running the best campaign and PQ is their top second choice. Legault will benefit from a ballot box bonus (Bourassa's famous prime à l'urne) due to his yuge lead with older voters.

So in other words, if they weighted by turnout (as I believe all pollsters should be doing), the CAQ would have higher numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

You can see QS's problem in the age crosstabs, again. Losing badly in the 65+ category.

[Hatman 🍁]

Three parties have the name of the leader in the official party name (and appear on the ballot): CAQ, PCQ and Bloc Montreal.

I hate this practice. It's done a lot in municipal elections in Quebec too.

[Hatman 🍁]

No one knows for sure how many seats the PCQ will win - if any. I'd say it's quite probable they will at least win Chauveau.

[Hatman 🍁]

If this poll is anywhere close to true, the Liberals are in deep trouble. They won 92% of the vote there in 2018.

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1573087674357125120

But it also shows the Conservatives haven't really made significant inroads into the Anglo community.

[Hatman 🍁]

You missed the polls from the previous day. CAQ is a head in Chaveau. I guess we know why MS keeps projecting the Tories at 0 seats despite being second in PV.

Also, Segma came out with a poll today showing Hull is essentially a 3 way race. Might be cool if QS can win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oops, I'm the one that missed it then.

Does anyone think the PCQ has a chance in either Beauce riding?

[Hatman 🍁]

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Constituency polls are unreliable or Mainstreet is sh*t?

Yes.

But, I'm thinking Segma's numbers sound far more accurate. If they are to be believed, the PCQ is probably winning Chauveau too.

I doubt it. I think the PCQ will do better in both Beauce than in Chauveau.

You are correct.

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1575814820380561409

[Hatman 🍁]

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!

[Hatman 🍁]

While I agree with your sentiment, younger people are less likely to vote anyway, so they shouldn't be weighted up to 25% in the first place (though, all the pollsters still do this).

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways

Riding polls obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, but this is a electoral geography forum! It's interesting to talk about them, still!

Yes for sure sure younger people are less likely to vote than older people - but in a typical riding IVR poll you will have about 70% of the respondents over the age of 65 and about 1% being under 35 - and while its true that 25% of actual voters won't be 18-34 year olds - they also sure as hell won't be just 1% of all voters.

We saw in the Ontario election that Mainstreet's riding polls had one consistent flaw - they almost always grossly underestimated NDP support (not in their province-wide polls just in their riding polls). I think its because their IVR polls only survey elderly people who have directory listed landline numbers.

That's true, but we did riding polling for QS, and if anything we overestimated them, and they are doing very well among young people. But we were able to get many more cases than "1% under 35", because we were able to include cell phones in the data.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are ways of course to get cell sample at the riding level. It's a bit trickier for urban ridings, but we have our ways

I'm curious about this.  How would that work? Most people get their phones at malls and shopping centres that aren't (necessarily) in the riding where they live. Is it based on where the phone is most used?  Wouldn't that be where the person works as opposed to where they live? 

You're expecting me to spew trade secrets here? DL is right thought, in less urban ridings, it's easy enough to just call the rate centres in those ridings. That doesn't cut it in Montreal though. But we have some rudimentary methods that are better than nothing. 

[Hatman 🍁]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at the map, having Sherbrooke's suburbs being split between 3 different ridings is probably the biggest reason.

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

Their base is Sherbrooke, whose surplus population (and regional population) was spread out between the three neighboring seats in a unseemly matter. Outside that though, a bit of local knowledge is needed.

There is a (well-integrated) Anglophone community in the Eastern Townships, so the nationalism of the PQ/CAQ is less popular and it has some cultural similarities to rural New England (when you visit, you can hear French locals talking about shopping trips to Burlington, for exemple).

Preferring a separatist party (QS) over a nationalist party (CAQ) for an Anglo seems kind of weird, but I suppose if you think about it more in terms of cultural nationalism, then, I get it. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm aware of all that, but I think it still prevents them from making inroads among Anglos in general.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bloc Montreal won a division in Saint-Laurent.

This is very clearly a transcription error. The Liberals, who won every other poll in the riding "won" just 2% in that one poll, while BM got 0-2% in the surrounding polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Quebec tradition of naming ridings after people continues...

Yeah, I hope they reconsider moving that random neighbourhood in Gatineau to Hull. I wonder if it would work to move some of Aylmer into Hull, and then move Chelsea into Pontiac to compensate? I feel like Chelsea would be a better fit for Pontiac, due to it being an Anglophone influenced riding (Chelsea has a large Anglo population).

ETA: Actually, this works pretty well. You don't even need to add any of Aylmer to Hull. I'm not sure how many electors get transferred (the redistribution is based on electors, not population), but the population transfer works out well.