Quebec 2022 Election

[RogueBeaver]

Update on open seats: Véronique Hivon announced this morning she won't run again, as expected. Joliette should be a CAQ pickup. In response to the CHSLD scandal Danielle McCann and Marguerite Blais are being retired. More PLQ and PQ big names are also expected to retire.

[RogueBeaver]

Hilarious: the 2 new neo-Equality parties are already squabbling. One is Balarama Holness' Mouvement Québec, the other is Townships lawyer Colin Standish's Parti Canadien.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/globeandmail/status/1532761054895230976

Former Longueuil mayor Caroline St-Hilaire is another star sovereigntist recruit for Legault. Levesque did something similar in 1976 with high-profile Unionist recruits like Pierre-Marc Johnson, Jean-Guy Cardinal and Jean-Francois Bertrand.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ and PLQ problems are structural, especially PQ ones that have been discussed since the 80s. While PSPP and Anglade are doing bad jobs neither party has a plausible alternative who'd be doing better.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse reports that dissolution is likely around the 29th, the last possible day.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/francoislegault/status/1562184905777446912

[RogueBeaver]

New Léger is out. He warns that issue dissatisfaction, particularly on healthcare and education, is worse than ballot testing and it surprised him. With 38% undecided there's ample opportunity for surprises if someone can coalesce the dissatisfied.

Topline: 42 (+1), 17 (-1), 16 (+1), 15 (-1), , 9 (-). Legault government approval overall is 58/38. PQ is the top 2nd choice at 18% but GND is preferred opposition leader at 30%. PLQ at 7% among Francophones.

[RogueBeaver]

Pascal Bérubé in Matane-Matapédia will be the PQ's sole member at this rate.

[RogueBeaver]

Security concerns are becoming an issue for all parties: SQ gave PSPP bulletproof vests, Grit Marwah Rizqy received death threats, Grit Enrico Ciccone's campaign office was vandalized, PCQ volunteers were assaulted. All party leaders have bigger protective details than previously. Policy-wise, Economy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon said he is open to the Saguenay LNG project and is supposedly negotiating with Ottawa to resume work after the election, while Legault insists the project is still dead.

PLQ has lost several candidates so far and is the only party without a full slate, currently 109 and both they and the PQ have had to impress staffers.

[RogueBeaver]

The last week has been about, among other topics, immigration and Duhaime's delinquency on his school and property taxes. Also, PSPP told the Canadian Press he wants to stay as leader after the election and will put it up to members next year. If Bérubé is the sole survivor then that'd obv be a very tough sell, but so long as members wanna keep the party alive IDK who else would be interested. Today all party leaders except Duhaime are preparing for tomorrow night's Face-a-Face debate.

[RogueBeaver]

New Léger has the CAQ under 40 for the first time in almost 3 years, a yellow light but without consequence for now because the opposition remains completely divided. He says most of the slide is from young voters. QS and PQ both +2, PLQ and PCQ +1. Interestingly, respondents still think Legault is running the best campaign and PQ is their top second choice. Legault will benefit from a ballot box bonus (Bourassa's famous prime à l'urne) due to his yuge lead with older voters.

[RogueBeaver]

Crosstalk summarizes this debate. IDK if it changes anything, don't think anyone particularly distinguished themselves. Reminded me a lot of the Ontario debate.

[RogueBeaver]

Legault apologizes to Carol Dubé, Joyce Echaquan's widower, for claiming in the debate that he had spoken to Dubé and that the hospital problems were solved. Dubé told La Presse today that nothing had changed there since his wife's death.

Anglade already calling for strategic voting.

[RogueBeaver]

André Boisclair was the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party 15 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Léger's latest has CAQ 37 (-1), QS 17 (+1), PLQ 16 (-), PQ 15 (+2), PCQ 15 (-1). He says PSPP-mentum can be credited to his Layton-style positivity and not to assume the Grits will be official opposition. OTOH Legault will benefit from a Boomer bonus. PLQ is in trouble in La Pinière, Laporte, Saint Henri-Sainte-Anne, Verdun, Viau and Laval among others. PCQ is topped out in his view due to minimal second choices.

[RogueBeaver]

Léger is the most accurate public pollster, I have complete trust in him. We have no idea about cannibalization, but I do wonder if lower Grit turnout is an omen like it was on election day 4 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Legault said today he'll consider a third term but it depends on his health (current age record is 69 from Taschereau and Duplessis) and popularity. His eventual succession will set up a complex leadership race with potential candidates from all factions: Guilbeault, Girard, SJB, LeBel, Drainville, etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Legault will not reappoint his immigration minister Jean Boulet after Boulet said that 80% of immigrants don't work, speak French or adhere to Quebec values. Legault himself said this morning that increasing the annual immigration rate of 50k would be suicidal.

[RogueBeaver]

Final Léger is out: 38 CAQ (+1), 17 PLQ (+1), QS 15 (-2), PQ 15 (-), PCQ 14 (-1). There will be plenty of tight races, especially in Greater Montreal. PQ is up to 19% in Quebec City, neck and neck with QS and PCQ. Among those very tight races will be SHSA, Camille-Laurin and Chauveau.

[RogueBeaver]

According to Elections Quebec, turnout as of 12:30 was 29% overall, about 6% today with a bunch of ridings not reporting. Unlike advance polling, there's no partisan pattern to the lowest turnout ridings.

PQ-mentum is really PSPP-mentum, his Layton-esque positivity and strong debate performances gave him a profile he'd previously lacked except among political junkies. PQ will be competing with CAQ in, among others, Camille-Laurin, Bonaventure, Gaspé, IDM and Marie-Victorin. Pascal Bérubé only faces nominal opposition.

Surprised by the last-minute PQ momentum, though I suppose when you hit rock bottom there's nowhere to go but up. Were they really in any competitive races though, with CAQ or otherwise?

[RogueBeaver]

8 Eastern, results start posting between 8:30 and 9.

[RogueBeaver]

Radio Canada projects CAQ majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Anglade leading and Plamondon losing in their ridings.

[RogueBeaver]

Patrice Roy said a few minutes ago that it's mathematically impossible for Duhaime to win Chauveau.

[RogueBeaver]

Grit campaign chair Carlos Leitao said Anglade will be staying as leader. PSPP has said he will too, but both will face leadership reviews next year.