Quebec 2022 Election

[adma]

PCQ above 20%, I think Mainstreet had them over 20% in the Spring. They would lead among 18-34 with 31.9 followed by QS 23.5. Léger had QS in front among the age group. In the Quebec City census area, CAQ leads with 43.5 to PCQ 32.6.

Seems like an echo effect from the broader reported "Poilievremania" among the 18-34s.

[adma]

Pontiac is only Anglophone seat the PCQ has an outside chance of winning, but even that a long shot.  It is predominately Anglophone so no way goes PLQ.  But it did Conservative ten years ago under Lawrence Cannon federally and even in most recent federal election, Conservatives won several predominately Anglophone communities in Pontiac region like Shawville.  Only lost riding badly as includes large section in Gatineau area where they got slaughtered.  So because its Anglophone, rural and somewhat more conservative than the more Anglophone areas in Montreal, possible albeit unlikely.  PCQ won't win in Montreal.  Parties on right generally don't win ridings in large urban centres anymore.  Vancouver-False Creek probably last example of this and even it has now flipped to NDP provincially.  In UK you have some like Cities of London & Westminster but good chance it flips next election too.

Huh?  Anglophones in Quebec overwhelming vote Liberal.  Just like Francophones in Ontario vote Liberal.

Presumably meant "PQ", one of the perils of 3 of the top 4 parties going by "P*Q"

Or brain-farted on Franco-preferences for CAQ, given the straitened state of the PQ.

While an expanded CAQ big tent could encompass Pontiac in a way the PQ never could, I agree that it *could* be the one true "Anglo-Conservative" possibility due to regional dynamics: it's somewhat of a rural-Anglo-Protestant political-culture piece with the corresponding Ontario part of the Ottawa Valley, and can vote in ways similar to "Cheryl Gallant country" across the Ottawa River...

[adma]

Quite an alliance there. Trump supporters, anti-vaxxers, people brainwashed by Quebec City trash radio and now Angryphones.

Is calling an English speaking person in Quebec an 'Angryphone' any different than calling a Francophone a 'frog'?

The Angryphone word is used to describe Quebec anglophones who refuses to engage with Francophones in any way and are perpetually angry at things (the same ones who voted for the Equality Party).

Nonsense, it's a way to dismiss the legitimate concerns of an entire group of people through dehumanizing them.

What 'engagement' is there other than the Francohpones saying 'what additional rights that you have can we take away now?"

Using the term 'angryphone' should be as unacceptable here as using the term 'frog' to describe Quebecers or using the N- word.

Actually, I reckon that even most Anglo Quebecers (at least those with a more-than-significant "Laurentian Elite" element to their character) would have no problem with using the term "Angryphone" to describe a certain unlikeable sect within their midst.  Remember: "the same ones who voted for the Equality Party" does *not* equate with "they all vote for the Equality Party"--we're talking more about the "Nigel Farage" wing of the Anglo community.  The marginal "CFRA-listening crank" pendant to Quebec City's talk-radio crowd.  Heck, with that in mind, they might be the sort who'd desert the QC Libs on account of their having a female POC leader.  

And let's watch it here, lest this thread get derailed by tedious "Anglo rights" discussions.

[adma]

If anyone's going to use the term "Angryphones", it's Anglophones to describe those from within whom they're embarrassed by.

[adma]

Even in 2015 when party went from 5 to 12 seats, its share of popular vote was unchanged.  Its just it went up in areas that mattered while went down in areas they had no chance of winning anyways.

Or even more properly, it went down in areas where the Justin Liberals repatriated the "floating federalist" support that had parked in the Con camp over the '06-08-11 Liberal doldrums interval.

[adma]

*Openly* gay; as opposed to cases like former NB premier Richard Hatfield.

Most likely this has been covered but can someone explain why PCQ is polling around the same as PLQ but is expected to win no seats while PLQ is expected to win a seat count in the teens?  I assume this is because PLQ has stronghold seats in Montreal but weak elsewhere while PCQ are stronger in places where CAQ are strong which means they have no chances at winning seats.

The PLQ is entirely an Anglophone party which means their vote is very concentrated and doesn’t face much competition from the other parties, while the PCQ has a more diverse vote that is spread out and as you say competes with a much stronger CAQ party.

Well, it's been cornered into being "entirely Anglophone"; or at least, the only real "Laurentian Elite" Anglo option--when it was in power, PLQ was more of a big tent for non-separatists and the "floating middle"...

[adma]

If this poll is anywhere close to true, the Liberals are in deep trouble. They won 92% of the vote there in 2018.

clipped for space

But it also shows the Conservatives haven't really made significant inroads into the Anglo community.

Yeah, it makes me think of some of those UK results in deep-Labour seats in the '10s where the old nuclear landslide margins vanished yet the opposition's atomized in a whole lot of Tory/UKIP/whatever ways, thus maintaining a carapace of apparent "safety"...

[adma]

It has been recognizable since 2017 but without the polarizing debate, the PLQ and PQ have nothing left to offer. PQ is destined for the dustbin, and PLQ would be joining them if not for the Anglo seats, where voters are still leaving the party.

And what has constrained the Anglo-seat exodus is that there's no clear, palatable alternate option unless CAQ became an even bigger tent entity than it already is (i.e. the one that Dominique Anglade ran for a decade ago).  PCQ's too far right except maybe out Pontiac way or if they made inroads w/certain ethnic groups like (echoing recent federal patterns) Orthodox Jews, while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.  Thus you'll likelier get D'Arcy McGee type polling as per Mainstreet: still solid Liberal by default, but no longer "North Korea" giga-solid.  (Which actually might be a healthier state of affairs, electorally speaking.)

[adma]

Interestingly, the Quebec Greens *have* done mid-teens credibly in the past in places like NDG, so the opportunity *could have been* there for them to become an "Anglo QS", but...no.

[adma]

while QS is too far left/too post-PQ for anyone other than millennial cosmopolitan hipsters.

The people of Rouyn-Noranda - Témiscamingue are millennial cosmopolitan hipsters?

Yes. A large chunk of their vote in the 2018 election came from the polls around the universities, reflecting how the voting population that services said institutions often holds views similar to the student population, who may not be registered to vote in said area. But that of course was only part of their 2018 coalition, as you are alluding to.

Also, I was referring to millennial-cosmopolitan-hipsters relative to the catchbasin of urban-core votes which have hitherto defaulted Liberal.  And in a way, said "millennial cosmopolitan hipsters" are a sort of melting pot that's really the ultimate postmodern entity relative to the federalism vs nationalism wars--which is how they've come to squat so efficiently upon former urban-left PQ/BQ strongholds far more so than former nuclear-Liberal strongholds, and which is why they're the last real organic bulwark (with REB-style exceptions) of post-Orange Crush federal NDP support remaining in QC.  They're Mile End types, not NDG types--in a way, the legacy-Liberal electoral monolith that has ruled in the latter for decades is too "monocultural" for their liking...

[adma]

Sounds to me like neither of you have ever been to Rouyn Noranda.  The QS support in this region comes from labour left, not millennial cosmopolitan hipster. UQAT in Rouyn has a few thousand students, this is not a University town like Sherbrooke. That's like saying the NDP support on the other side of the border in Timmins or Hearst is millennial cosmopolitan hipster because there happens to be a University within the borders of the ridings. I understand that the QS support here doesn't support your definition of who you think the QS voter is - that's why I'm bringing it up.  It may be the outlier or exception, but it shows that electorates outside of that cosmo hipster have given the QS a chance.  Although it's looking like Émilise will lose this time around.

*However*, Rouyn-Noranda's irrelevant to the Montreal-specific point I'm trying to make, much like Charlie Angus's federal rule in Timmins-James Bay is irrelevant to a similar point to be made about the ONDP in Toronto.  (Or even more so, REB's pattern of federal successes and near-successes in Berthier-Maskinonge is irrelevant to the matter of the federal NDP's current base of QC electoral support in Montreal.)

I was never claiming QS was *exclusively* a millennial-cosmopolitan-hipster phenomenon--indeed, R-N goes a way to explaining how their appeal's more inherently "big tent" than imagined--however, when it comes to those who opt for them *in Montreal*, that truly is a prominent undercurrent when it comes to "impressions".  And which exists at a deep disconnect from the "establishment Anglo" Liberalcentric W Island, but is also more piquant and nuanced than the former PQ rule around those presently-QS parts...

[adma]

Joliette, tossup between CAQ and PQ, not in the Quebec region but in Lanaudière, recently represented by the popular Véronique Hivon (actually gained 2% on 2014 even as the PQ collapsed provincewide) who is not running again - 32.02%

It may be a technical tossup based on '18 numbers; but given that it may have been more of a Hivon than a PQ riding per se, I'm wondering how much of a tossup it *really* is.  (And if the PQ's enjoying a leadership-driven polling bump, I have a feeling that it might be more "distributed" throughout the province than the sort that arbitrarily benefits otherwise-possible-CAQ-sitting-duck open seats like this one)

[adma]

QS currently at 11: momentarily ahead in Verdun and Maurice-Richard, down in Rouyn-Noranda by a lot, holding the other 9 from 2018. Would be a very interesting result for a party that's losing votes overall to gain a seat.

I'm also surprised they're holding both Quebec City seats and Sherbrooke

Well, proof of what I said about "Millennial cosmopolitan hipsters"--the one incumbent seat they're losing is the one most lacking in that factor, while the leads in places like Verdun are next-barometer frontiers for said demo.

At this point, IDLM is trying to be to the PQ what Orkney & Shetland is to the Lib Dems.

[adma]

Seems QS is going to pass the PQ in the popular vote very soon.

They just did.

[adma]

One other first achieved tonight: the Pequistes outpolling the Liberals but electing fewer members.

Not sure yet. Only .5% between the two.

At the moment, there's a smaller gap btw/PLQ and PQ than there is btw/PQ and QS.

[adma]

66% turnout, the same as last time.

Incredible, considering. Hope someone maps the change in turnout as well.

Weird to see QS do so well in the Eastern Townships. I wonder what their base is there?

FWIW when the NDP swept Quebec in 2011 some of its biggest margins were in eastern township places Drummond and Shefford and Ste. Hyacinthe and some of their MPs from there even won again in 2015...

Though within this particular QS patch, the only '15-prevailing NDPer (and a near-survivor in '19 as well) was Pierre-Luc Dusseault in Sherbrooke--then again, he might have single-handedly planted a left-amenable seed in the Sherbrooke area.

Otherwise, QS *did* seriously gun for Saint-Francois this time, and seemed to be entertaining the notion of Sherbrooke as a regional stepping stone to bigger things.  Plus this pocket simply wasn't PQ enough, and wasn't PCQ enough, and the Anglo element meant that there was an above-average Liberal vestige feeding at the bottom (Brome-Missisquoi and Orford gave them rare "QC heartland" double-digit shares)

[adma]

Maybe it's worth running down all the CAQ seats where at least one opposition party hit 20%...

Abitibi-Ouest (PQ 20.8 )
Anjou-Louis-Riel (Lib 30.8 )
Arthabaska (PCQ 24.7)
Beauce-Nord (PCQ 42.8 )
Beauce-Sud (PCQ 43.4)
Bellechasse (PCQ 35.3)
Berthier (PQ 20.8 )
Bertrand (PQ 20.8 )
Bonaventure (PQ 30.1)
Charlesbourg (PCQ 20.3)
Chauveau (PCQ 31.8 )
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (PCQ 27.2)
Chateauguay (Lib 24.8 )
Cote-du-Sud (PCQ 23.4)
Duplessis (PQ 24.9)
Fabre (Lib 30.9)
Gaspe (PQ 37.5)
Hull (Lib 25.9, QS 20.7)
Jean-Talon (QS 23.8 )
Joliette (PQ 31.2)
La Peltrie (PCQ 30.0)
Lac-Saint-Jean (PQ 25.6)
Laporte (Lib 28.8 )
Laval-des-Rapides (Lib 28.7)
Lotbiniere-Frontenac (PCQ 32.2)
Levis (PCQ 20.7)
Marie-Victorin (PQ 24.7, QS 22.5)
Montmorency (PCQ 26.1)
Megantic (PCQ 22.3)
Nicolet-Becancour (PQ 22.2)
Portneuf (PCQ 29.7)
Rene-Levesque (PQ 21.2)
Richelieu (PQ 20.3)
Richmond (PS 20.0)
Rimouski (PQ 28.6, QS 21.3)
Roberval (PQ 20.6)
Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue (QS 31.1)
Saint-Francois (QS 28.2)
Sainte-Rose (Lib 24.1)
Soulanges (Lib 21.8 )
Taillon (PQ 20.3)
Ungava (QS 24.2)
Vercheres (PQ 20.7)
Vimont (Lib 29.8 )

So that adds up to only half the seats won.  And that's *including* those which they took from incumbents or incumbent parties.  (And half of the PQs were with only 20-21% of the vote.)

[adma]

Duhaime's speech last night made it seem like he plans to stick around for the long haul, but it will be difficult to make a difference and grow in support without any MNAs. To come within about 1% of two separate seats has got to hurt for them.

Anglade's future should also be in doubt imo. She's not been a particularly strong leader (disappointing because I had hope) but no matter who leads the PLQ, they're going to have a mighty tough time building a larger coalition while not bleeding Anglophone and immigrant support.

If I may be contrarian here, there's an argument to be had that *all* of the existing leaders have earned the right to stick around.  Even Anglade who, in a doubtlessly thankless reduced-circumstance situation, had something of a graceful finish anyway--I mean, let's accept that it may take a fair bit of work for the Libs to truly repatriate natural-governing-party status, and it actually might be a good, cathartic thing that they confronted this kind of bottoming-out circumstance.  (Of course, it helps that QC political ergonomics are such that the Libs have such a high and resilient floor--but much like the NDP in Ontario, relative seat totals can go a long way.)

[adma]

One thing that would be useful is if anyone could post maps of the CAQ/Lib/PQ/QS vote shifts from 2018. 

And one thing nobody's raised about R-N-T and its going QS in '18: at the time, that territory had impetus from a federal NDP MP (Christine Moore, who ironically ran for the PQ this time in Ungava)

[adma]

4.PQ had a big win in Matane-Matapedia so they wouldn't have been shut out, but they weren't even competitive in ridings they won in 2018. One of their five competitive ridings was probably a result of their candidate there being former NDP M.P Pierre Nantel.

Well, not just former NDP MP (who was party-expelled and finished his stint as a *Green* candidate in '19, of all things), but former byelection candidate in the only Greater Montreal riding to stick with the Bloc in '18 (that is, there had been a *lot* invested in said byelection, and Nantel's name-recognition fumes carried on into the general).  Also, it was a borderline *3-way* (Nantel did only a little over 2 points better than QS, who were only a little over 10 points from the CAQ winner, and likewise w/the same candidate as in the byelection--that is, Marie-Victorin was the closest QS got to an off-island gain in Greater Montreal, and it probably helped that it was commutably just across from the Jacques Cartier Bridge from QS's E Island strongholds; so there's a bit of a natural "softness" to CAQ support there)

[adma]

One thing I don't fully understand about the immigration debate in Quebec is that there is no shortage of French speakers around the world who I'm sure would like to come to Quebec and I'm sure would be good additions to Quebec.

I'm thinking in present of French speakers in Burkina Faso and Haiti.

That's because the language issue in the context of immigration is in part a cover for something else.

And that "something else" is also an unspoken factor behind Anglade's limited reach beyond the Anglo/Allos.

[adma]

Irrespective of the reasons for Quebec's unwillingness to accept more than 50,000 immigrants a year, I think Quebecers need to be aware of and accept all the consequences of that.

So, a couple caveats:
1.Quebec, of course, can not prevent immigrants (or any other Canadian) who moves to anotehr province first to relocate to Quebec. They can, as part of their language schooling policies try to make it difficult for English speaking people to move to Quebec, but I think most English speakers who move to Quebec want their children to learn French as quickly as possible anyway.

2.There is obviously opposition to immigration, especially 350,000 immigrants a year outside of Quebec, in the rest of Canada as well. And, certainly one can oppose such a large number of immigrants a year without being racist.

In regards to the consequences, there was debate in the election that Quebec needs immigrants for economic purposes, there are job shortages, but there is also the other consideration.

In 40 years, Quebec has gone from having 75 of 282 seats in the House of Commons (about 27%) to 78 of 338 (soon to be 341 I think) about 23%.

This decline as a share of Canadian population will result after the next election of British Columbia and Alberta combined having more seats in the House of Commons than Quebec.

Quebecers need to understand that this is the consequence of their opposition to immigration, that if present trends continue, in about 30 years, they will likely comprise less than 20% of the Canadian population. They need to understand that this is the result of their choice and that they can't expect the rest of Canada to give them any kind of special protection in The House of Commons to make up for this choice.

When you make a choice, you need to accept all the consequences, both good and bad.

Yet the irony is that for all this grousing over immigration policy, Quebec actually *has* grown at a reasonable pace over the years--it's just that the Western provinces have grown more.  That is, there's reasons other than language/immigration policy that have "constrained" growth; it's more akin to how Ohio hasn't grown as much as Oregon.  And compared to Ohio and other Great Lakes/NW States, Quebec's growth rate's not been bad at all, maybe not at an Ontario level but still well beyond that particular par.  (Certain parts within Quebec are a different matter; but that might be more analogous to the Atlantic Provinces.)

Heck, the only real reason Quebec's gone up in seat totals is as a byproduct of Harper-era Commons expansion--otherwise it'd probably have stayed at 75, and for more or less the same reason PEI's stayed at 4.  And fundamentally, 78 seats is harmless; so to insist upon reducing that because Quebec forms a shrinking share of the overall Canadian population strikes me as sort of, well, twerpy, like a wet-noodle version of fluctuating US Congressional delegations.    Indeed, this matter of painting declining population share as if it were declining population is inane, even if it feeds the case of those who seek to diminish QC's stature relative to the rest of Canada to something more "proportionate"--put it this way, btw/the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, QC went up 7.6%.  By comparison, California went up 6.1% from 2010-2020, the US *at large* went up 7.4%, and the only NE State to grow faster was Delaware (+ the District of Columbia), while Minnesota matched Quebec's growth rate.  See what I mean?  Not bad at all...

[adma]

Right now the opposition parties and pundits are squabbling over official party status, which is nominally 12 seats or 20% but in practice is decided case by case. In 2018 Legault granted it to QS and PQ, supported by the PLQ. Now QS and PQ are loudly demanding it but Anglade doesn't want to unless Legault commits to electoral reform, which he flatly refused in his press conference last week. Grits are saying they made a mistake agreeing in 2018 because it gave GND a higher profile and allowed Legault to run against him. My view is GND getting more coverage is a Grit problem.

Anglade's leadership is not being contested right now, though Marc Tanguay (Charest's former party president) wants to be interim leader while not doing anything to make it happen. Riqzy and Fortin are loyal to Anglade. Some outside Grits floated Labeaume, who sounded ambivalent when the Journal asked him. I highly doubt he would do it unless drafted and his profile is similar to Legault as a nationalist businessman-pol in his 60s who voted yes twice. Marois got 95% in her post-2008 leadership review and we know how that turned out, but leadership coups are strictly an establishment thing in the PLQ, like everything else. Plus no one seriously thinks Tanguay, Riqzy, Fortin or some LPC figure would do better.

Probably if there's any "fresh start' hope for the Liberals, it'd be if a federal MP made a jump to the provincial leadership--not sure if there's anyone with that gumption at this point.

And the QS thing is interesting; because as much as some observers might seek to project an big-city urban vs suburban/rural left vs right dynamic upon Quebec politics, it doesn't work because the Quebec Libs have always been at least as much of an "establishment" party, and a lot of their Anglo strongholds are scarcely the sort that'd be deemed "left" most anywhere else.  Thus except when it comes to self-preservation, there hasn't exactly been the climate for "unite the left under the Liberals" in QS strongholds, not least because a lot of said strongholds used to be PQ strongholds and the big-tent Liberalism might as well be a unite-the-*centre-right* reflex, much as it has been in Lib/NDP marginal seats across Canada.  Thus in practice, Montreal's like a London where the Kingston/Richmond Lib Dem reflex rules the establishment-Anglo roost (while bleeding into the Allos elsewhere) and CAQ is a Franco version of a coarse "Essex Man Tory" easterly element...

[adma]

Probably akin to those occasional tabulation errors in federal results which are noted in footnote form with the proviso that they do not affect the final outcome (i.e. who wins/loses in whichever particular riding, etc)